Winter Meetings Roundup (part one of three)

by Benjamin Lincoln, USA Today

Friday, December 19, 2008

The PEBA Winter Meetings concluded last night with all of the trading profligacy for which the league is known.  A trade-by-trade breakdown and team grades follow in this in depth article.

Trade #1: Manchester–San Antonio … San Antonio made its first move at the opening bell of the meetings.  In this one, financial burden and third baseman Michael Kelly went to the Maulers in exchange for an A-ball centre fielder and a first and sixth round draft pick.

Analysis: Kelly makes $8.5 million a year but fills a hole at third for the Mancunians with his 56.9 VORP last year.  Mostly a salary dump for San Antonio, the Calzones still managed to net a great pick.

Edge: Slight for San Antonio.  It’s not clear that this move is the right one for a Manchester team that finished 72-90 last year.

Trade #2: Tempe–Kentucky … Both of these teams flailed through losing seasons (each 65-97) last year and figured to be movers here at the meetings.  Tempe added a closer (Miguel Lozano) and also a AAA SP (Tabito Ishibashi), while Kentucky added one organizational soldier (Rich Cunningham) and one decent prospect (Doug Hinkle).

Analysis: This one is befuddling.  Tempe added the over $3 million of Lozano and, for the privilege of doing so, traded Doug Hinkle, a pretty good prospect.  Tempe did acquire a 32-year-old, journeyman, AAA pitcher though, so they have that going for them.

Edge: Kentucky in a landslide.  The Thoroughbreds cut salary and added the best prospect in the trade.

Trade #3: Aurora–Omaha … First round picks traded hands here, as well as a LF prospect (Cory Pierce, to Aurora) and an SP prospect (Fernando Madrid, to Omaha).

Analysis: Not a lot to analyze here.  Pretty good prospects go both ways, both to fit an organizational need.  Omaha may see a quicker return on investment, but both players should develop well.

Edge: None really.

Trade #4: Omaha–San Antonio … Omaha added aging catcher Lorenzo Vega and über-prospect Will George.  San Antonio got hit-or-miss SP Norris Moncrief and hit-or-miss SP Kisho Ageda.

Analysis: Ageda ($590,000) and Moncrief ($4,000,000) don’t equal the salary of Vega ($6.75 million) and both are only under contract for a year.  Both starters are capable of being better than average (2007) and both are capable of being heinous (2008).  Will George is the real story here.  George is rated highly by SISA and should develop into a high-OBP hitter.

Edge: IF Moncrief and Ageda return to form, this is a good deal for San Antonio.  If they don’t, this is a steal for Omaha.  Forget Vega; this trade hinges on the pitchers.

Trade #5: West Virginia–San Antonio … Starting to see a pattern?  San Antonio kept things moving here with another trade.  This time, PEBA malcontent Alfredo Pinto went to the Coal Sox for middle relievers Shigeaki Otani and Hiroya Kobayashi.

Analysis: Fodder for the SA trade mill here.  Pinto has been a stiff no matter where he goes but doesn’t cost much.  I would talk about how the Calzones need middle relief but, as we will see, only one of these guys remains with the team.

Edge: San Antonio, I think.  Pinto is not going to help WV.  The Calzones get one reliever and flip Otani.

Trade #6: West Virginia–Tempe … A middling middle reliever (Whit Andrews) and a low-A reliever (Mark Merrill) head to West Virginia from Tempe, who gets Jorge López (LF) and José Rivera (SP).

Analysis: Tempe tried to bounce back from a disastrous trade earlier in the day with this one.  While Tempe got the shaft earlier, they did well here.  Whit Andrews is a nice piece but useless on a team going nowhere.  Andrews is young but has already peaked.  In Jorge López and José Rivera, Tempe gets two players still on their way up.  It’s not the kind of trade that will garner headlines, but it is a small step in the right direction.

Edge: Tempe does more with this trade.  West Virginia replaces one of the relievers that they just traded.  Tempe takes this one.

Trade #7: Yuma–Duluth … Jared Dobney, still recovering from a neurological disorder, made this move with his brother from the Minnesota franchise.  Tama Akiyama and a fourth rounder went to Duluth while John Wright, Bud Edwards and a sixth rounder headed to the desert.

Analysis: This one makes little sense at first blush.  Akiyama is a great but middle-aged reliever heading to a team heading toward rebuilding.  Yuma gets an expensive starter (John Wright) who is 35 and a reliever (Bud Edwards) who will never be Akiyama.  However, a further reading reveals that Duluth will save over a million on this trade while Yuma frees up salary when the year is over, while also patching the rotation.

Edge: Duluth.  They needed the budget room and this was the first step toward getting it.

Trade #8: San Antonio–Canton … Will Guffin (MR) and a seventh rounder head to San Antonio in exchange for Shigeaki Otani, who probably never even made it to the plane.

Analysis: According to the Calzones' GM: “Hard to say if Guffin or the 7^th round pick amount to much.  I have more hopes for the 7^th round pick, but Guffin gives me depth at the AAA level if injuries strike.  A little more salary walks away.”  That sums it up for San Antonio.  Canton makes this move with an eye toward bolstering a terrible bullpen and making the next step toward contention.

Edge: Canton gets younger and better at the middle reliever position.

Trade #9: Aurora–West Virginia … Catchers abound in this trade.  Ching-Hsia Chin (C), Robun Fujimoto (C), Ryan Rayner (OF) and $666,667 head for the hills while Víctor Salgardo (C) and a first and fourth round pick head to the Borealis.

Analysis: The money makes this basically even on the salary front, but mostly this is about catchers.  Chin and Fujimoto become the options for the Coal Sox.  Rayner is a throw-in but could eventually develop into a security blanket in the outfield.  Salgardo enters the mix in Aurora, where the catcher position is a mess.  Draft picks are draft picks.

Edge: Chin is a nice addition for a West Virginia team desperate for playoff success.  The Coal Sox take this one, but pay dearly in the draft.

Thus ended the first half of trading madness at the Winter Meetings.  Analysis of the second portion of trading, as well as grades for each team, will follow.