2021 Rio Grande Valley Ocelots Season Preview Part One: The Rotation
The 2021 Rio Grande Valley Ocelots Season Preview Part One: The Rotation
Ocelots GM Matt Higgins went into full ‘Trader Matt’ mode this past off-season, totally reshaping the roster after a dismal final season in Kawaguchi. The pitching staff expected to start the season in the RGV does not include a single holdover from last years 123 loss team. In the lineup, the only familiar faces will be the left fielder Tada and third baseman Yoshida.
ROTATION
We will start our preview with a look at the Ocelots rotation.
Domingo ‘Jaguar’ Hernandez – 31 yrs old – right – trade with Shin Seki 12-22-20
Hernandez compiled 138 wins over 11 seasons in the LRS, including 4 seasons of 16 or more wins. A control specialist who rarely walks batters, he keeps the pitch counts low and can work deep into games. His 5 pitch repertoire is rather mediocre, and he is soft tosser who rarely eclipses 90 mph on the radar gun, but his excellent control and ability to keep hitters off-balance usually leads to success. The Ocelots are firm believers that Hernandez has the ability to continue to put up wins at the PEBA level and it would be a surprise if Jaguar didn’t win 15 games this season. Hernandez is signed through the 2022 season.
Bob ‘Hoss’ Harris -31 yrs old – right – trade with San Antonio 12-22-20
A long time favorite of Ocelots GM Higgins, Harris was brought to the RGV in a trade with San Antonio. Harris won 14 games in 2018 and 13 games in 2019, and the Ocelots are convinced his 2020 season was not his fault. Much like Hernandez, he is a soft tosser who keeps the walks and pitch counts low and can work deep into games. He holds runners well, and it’s that type of ability to do the little things that helps Harris have success. The Ocelots believe Harris still has the life in the arm to put another season of double digit wins. The former Rule 5 draftee provides much needed leadership to the clubhouse as well. He is slated to be a free agent after this season, but a solid season from Harris could have the Ocelots looking to re-sign the workhorse come next fall.
Floyd Davis – 33 yrs old – right – trade with Charleston 12-22-20
Another addition to the pitching staff made during a flurry of trades on the 22nd of December, Davis is another workhorse middle of the rotation types that the Ocelots brought in to chew up innings. Davis career hit a high point in 2019 when he won 17 games for Kentucky, but he was never able to establish himself in Charleston last season. Davis doesn’t have raw ability, but he pitches smart and is able to work deep into games. While it’s hard to see him putting up another 17 win season, he should eat a large chunk of innings and rack up at least dozen wins for the Ocelots. Worth noting, Davis is the only player on the Ocelots presently signed for more than 2 seasons. Davis has 3 seasons left on his deal which will see him pitch for the Ocelots through 2023.
Jose Avalos – 30 yrs old – right – free agent signing 12-30-20
Avalos has been a bit of mystery as to why he has yet to find success, as he could never break through and establish himself in Arlington. But the Ocelots are convinced that Avalos has a chance to be a late bloomer and are giving him a spot in the rotation to prove it. The Ocelots may be out on a limb here, as Avalos has just a 17-31 mark and a career 4.78 ERA. Avalos is in much the same mold as Hernandez and Harris, good control, should work deep into games and eat some innings, though he does throw a bit harder. The only thing he lacks to this point is success. Avalos is signed for two years with a team option for 2023.
Stephen Clark – 25 yrs old – right – trade with San Antonio 12-22-20
Another soft tossing right hander, the rookie Clark finally gets a shot at a full time role. He pitched 3 games for San Antonio in 2019, posting a 2-1 mark with a 3.15 ERA. The Ocelots believe the big right hander is capable of carrying a heavy load at the back of the rotation and should approach 200 innings. If he can keep his ERA in the low 4’s, that probably translates into a dozen wins.
Waiting in the wings:
Yoichibi Sakai– 26 yrs old – right
Sakai was the teams best pitcher in Kawaguchi last season, posting an 8-12 mark with a 4.21 ERA and 1.17 whip. But the makeover to the staff has Sakai on the outside looking in this year, and with 2 options remaining he is likely to begin the season at AAA Texarkana, unless the Ocelots find a deal for him in the meantime. He does give the team some quality depth if injuries should arise.
Rafael Rodriguez – 31 yrs old – right – waiver claim from Charleston 12-9-20
Rodriguez will begin the season in the bullpen as the long man/emergency starter. Rodriguez has a couple of seasons of double digit wins under his belt in Kentucky. A hard thrower who keeps the ball in the park, Rodriguez can struggle with his control at times. Rodriguez gives the Ocelots a veteran arm to turn to when games get out of hand, and he can step into the rotation in a pinch. He is only signed through this season, and it is unlikely he will be retained.
Masujiro Onishi – 35 yrs old – right – free agent signing 12-26-20
Onishi is a bit of mystery, though the scouting reports say he is capable of stepping into a rotation if needed. He throws in the mid 90’s with 4 plus pitches. Onishi will be given a look in spring training, but is slated to begin the year at AAA Texarkana and provide the Ocelots with some veteran depth for the rotation.
Chad Miller – 25 yrs old – right – trade with Crystal Lake 12-19-20
Miller was acquired in trade with Crystal Lake at the winter meetings. Miller can hit triple digits on the radar gun, but the knock on him has been his questionable control. Still, the Ocelots see a guy who might be a bit of an over achiever and have him penciled in to join the big league staff in 2022, likely in bullpen role. In the meantime, he provides some much needed depth for the rotation and will bide his time at AAA Texarkana.
Dave Parkinson – 25 yrs old – left – waiver claim from Fargo 2-10-21
The big lefty throws in the low 90’s and has a plus changeup as his out pitch. A 3rd round pick of the Dinosaurs in 2016, Parkinson has never really wowed anyone, but he hasn’t been especially disappointing either. He has just been rather average. Still, he gives the Ocelots a left handed option should they need it, and he will join what should be a rather solid rotation at AAA Texarkana to start the season.
Ace in the hole:
Atilio Gaivo – 24 yrs old – left- Rule 5 pick from Bakersfield 12-1-20
Gaivo was picked by the Ocelots with the first pick in the most recent Rule 5 draft, despite the fact that he would miss most of the season with a torn flexor tendon. Gaivo should return in July, at which time he is likely to do a rehab assignment before joining the Ocelots probably in August. Look for Gaivo to finish this season in the bullpen, but he is slated to join the Ocelots rotation in 2022. Gaivo has all the makings of being a solid starter for many years to come, and if he reaches his potential he could become one of the best Rule 5 picks in PEBA history.
A last hurrah:
Alberto Semblano – 42 yrs old – left – free agent signing 9-3-20
The aging Semblano will begin the year in AAA, but he is way down the list when it comes to potential callups. If his arm holds up for the season, the Ocelots would like to get him a couple of starts in September so that he can take a final victory lap before calling it a career.
The wild card:
Kelvin Sproule – 26 yrs old – right – free agent signing 9-16-20
The Australian was signed out of an independent league last September, and the Ocelots aren’t quite sure what they have with Sproule. Scouts think he has the makeup and the tools, but they question his control. He will start the year at AA Medicine Hat while the Ocelots take a long look at him.
The dark horse:
Makoto Schimizu– 22 yrs old – right – 2nd rd pick in 2020 LRS draft.
The HUGE right hander really surprised in his first year of pro ball, striking out 80 in 91.1 innings between SSA and A ball, while walking just 16 and allowing just 1 HR. Scouts have certainly been impressed with his quick development, and he appears to be on a fast track to PEBA. He throws hard, hitting 98 on the gun, and his 4 pitch repertoire is adequate but not overpowering. He is excellent at keeping the ball low in the zone and in the ballpark. He’s smart and works hard, and if he can develop a little more stamina he could become an excellent mid rotation starter someday. He will start the season at A ball, but should be at AA fairly quickly, and continued success could see him at AAA by the end of the season. Can he make it to RGV in 2022? Hard to say, but a bullpen in the RGV that will likely need to be rebuilt next off season could see him make into the mix.
The hot prospect:
Naoki Hayashi – 22 yrs old -left – 1st round pick in 2020 LRS draft (1st overall)
Hayashi had an incredible college season in 2020, but didn’t quite duplicate that success at the pro level. Still, the young lefty has all the tools to eventually be an ace at the PEBA level. The question is not if, it is when. He could be a little slower to develop than Schimizu, but he has a much higher upside. He will start the 2021 season at A Nogales, and the organization will likely let him get at least 65 innings in at A ball before evaluating him for a promotion. It’s hard to see Hayashi in an Ocelots uniform in 2022, though some point in 2023 remains a slim possibility. He still needs to learn a third pitch before he will be an effective starter at the PEBA level, and that could delay his arrival until 2024.
In part two of this series we will examine the bullpen.