2014 Playoff Preview: Crystal Lake Sandgnats vs. Bakersfield Bears

Crystal Lake Sandgnats 101-61	vs.	Bakersfield Bears 104-54

With the best record in the PEBA, Bakersfield is making a strong push for their first championship in league history. But to get there, they will have to fight their way past Crystal Lake. Both teams had impressive seasons. Crystal Lake came within a few whiskers of winning the Great Lake Division but instead had to settle for the second wild card slot and a faceoff against Bakersfield. Let’s take a closer look at this upcoming five-game series…

Overview

On the surface, Bakersfield appears to have the edge, having won an impressive 108 games this season. However, one has to consider the fact that they get to play the Yuma Bulldozers 18 times per season to just 12 for Crystal Lake. That practically makes up the difference right there.

The teams squared off 12 times this season, with Bakersfield taking seven. However, the last time they met in late August, Crystal Lake swept the Bears in a three-game set.

Bakersfield has won primarily with complete pitching domination. Statistically, the only blip on their pitching radar is a tendency to walk hitters. But even in that arena, they are better than league-average. In practically every other pitching category, Bakersfield is tops in the Sovereign League. In fact, their 2.80 team ERA is half a run better than any other team in the PEBA. Offensively, the Bears are a tough out, with the fewest strikeouts in the SL. In almost all other offensive categories, they are solid 2^nd-quartile teams.

Crystal Lake is almost opposite. Their pitching is solid without vying for tops in the league, but they are in the top three in nearly every offensive category. The Gnats led the SL in home runs; in fact, with 242 bombs, they have clubbed nearly 70 more home runs than Bakersfield.

Both teams will steal a base on occasion, too, but neither is particularly aggressive on the base paths. The two teams enter the playoffs on nearly identical runs, with Bakersfield going 33-20 in the last two months of the season, compared to Crystal Lake’s 33-21 record.

Three Questions for Bakersfield GM Jon Rosenblatt

1. Can the Bears win in nine? Perhaps this is the mark of a team that isn’t used to being at the head of the pack, but a noticeable statistical oddity is that the Bears, who had a .667 winning percentage this year, won just five of 15 extra-inning games. Meanwhile, Crystal Lake thrived in extra frames, going 11-3. The Bears have noticeable incentive to make sure these games get wrapped up in nine innings.
2. Will Okazaki help the Bears start strong? In a short series, winning the first game is huge. Tetsuo Okazaki has been the Bears’ (and perhaps the PEBA’s) most consistent starter all season long. He hasn’t had a losing month all season, and only in May was his monthly ERA over 3.00. Against the Sandgnats, he went 2-0 in three starts, pitching 21 innings and giving up only five runs. It’s a good bet that Bakersfield will pitch him first. Winning the first game could put a lot of pressure on Crystal Lake, who would presumably then have to win consecutive games against Markus Hancock and Todd Burns.
3. Will Richard Wymer be a difference-maker? Bakersfield is loaded with consistent hitters, but none has been hotter than Bears’ catcher Richard Wymer. He hit six homers in September, batting .394 with a .803 slugging percentage and a crazy OPS+ of 229. This after hitting .328 in the month of August, so it’s not like this is some brief hot streak. Though he bats seventh, that’s the part of the order that Crystal Lake needs to retire regularly if they want to stop Bakersfield rallies.

Three Questions for Crystal Lake GM Robbie Brown

1. Will Crystal Lake regret their lack of southpaws? The Sandgnats’ rotation is solid and has one of the lowest ERAs in the SL.       Unfortunately, they’re all right-handed. Whereas the Bears have shown a profound weakness against left-handed starters (going just 11-14 this season against them), against righties, their winning percentage is up over .700. The truth is, Crystal Lake has some lefty starters with potential in their organization, but none are really major league-ready. The Sandgnats gave lefties Bryan Powell and Ricardo Borghese September starts after solid seasons at AAA, but neither fared well.
2. Can the Sandgnats make a sparkler of “Fireworks”?  Markus Hancock’s career playoff numbers: 7-3, with a 2.46 ERA, 13 walks, and 121 strikeouts, 0.87 WHIP. Everyone in the league knows what an impact pitcher he is, even if some people have bandied about the term “over-hyped”.       Yet, in three starts against Crystal Lake this year, Markus was more like one of those little sparklers: 1-1, 20.1 IP, 5.31 ERA, 12 ER, and a .339 BABIP. Granted, these starts were all in May and June, a long time ago. Still, Crystal Lake has to have some confidence that they can scratch out a win against Hancock. To do so could make all of the difference in a five-game series.
3. Can Crystal Lake overcome injuries to Eduardo Molina and Jeffrey Matthews? Crystal Lake talk shows have been blowing up after the team lost two of their three outfielders on successive days in late September. That’s 43 HR and 170 RBI gone from the lineup.  Jay White has been solid, but the bottom line is production like that doesn’t grow on trees. Crystal Lake’s offense has taken a huge hit this week, and Matthews’s defensive range is unparalleled. Some fans called those games meaningless; they already had the wild card spot wrapped up. But the team was driving hard, trying to catch Fargo for first place.

Prediction

With Molina and Matthews out, Crystal Lakes won’t be able to generate the offense it needs against the Bears’ crack staff. Bears win 3-1.