2014 Playoff Preview: Aurora Borealis vs. Fargo Dinosaurs

Aurora Borealis 104-58	vs.	Fargo Dinosaurs 104-58

In the PEBA, no two playoffs teams have records as evenly matched as the Aurora Borealis and the Fargo Dinosaurs, who finished with equal 104-58 marks. Let’s take a closer look to see how closely matched these two juggernauts truly are in a five-game series…

Overview

Heading into the post-season, few teams have been hotter than Aurora, who blistered their way through September with a 21-6 record after a pedestrian 12-15 August. But Fargo was no slouch down the homestretch either, going 18-9 in September and having been more consistent over the past two months (36-20 to Aurora’s 33-21).

The two teams were evenly matched during the regular season, splitting twelve games, including a three-game sweep by Aurora in June that was avenged by a three-game sweep by Fargo in August. Aurora’s offense versus Fargo’s pitching was a big differentiator in those two series, as Aurora scored 19 runs in their June sweep while managing only six runs combined during the Fargo sweep.

The two teams both boast powerful offenses, with Aurora’s seeming a bit more consistent overall. Aurora fires on all cylinders. They hit for average, slug, take walks, don’t strike out a lot, and pressure teams on the base paths. In fact, they rank in the top three in every offensive category save for home runs. Fargo is a little bit more of a traditional slugging team. They never run, with just 26 stolen bases all year, but they finished 2^nd in home runs and 1^st in extra-base hits. They led the league in drawing walks, but they’re also prone to strikeouts, ranking 9^th in that category.

Pitching is remarkably similar across the board. Fargo has better numbers amongst their rotation. Aurora’s bullpen was slightly sturdier.

Three Questions for Aurora GM Will Topham

1. Can Aurora’s righties solve their woes against the Dinos’ lineup? Aurora’s right-handed starters have struggled against Fargo. Borealis ace Kijuro Kojima finished the season with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, but in two starts against Fargo, the Dinos battered Kojima to a tune of a .326 AVG and 7 ER in just 9.2 innings. Righty Juan Silva also struggled against Fargo, losing his two starts and racking up a 5.93 ERA. On the other hand, lefty starters Artie Tillman and Francisco Chávez were both effective, with Tillman winning both of his starts and Chávez pitching passably in a May no-decision. Meanwhile, RHP José Reyes, now at AAA Thornton, was Aurora’s most effective right-hander against the potent Fargo lineup, giving up just 6 ER in 21.1 innings, including a June 24^th complete game one-hitter. Yet Aurora demoted him to AAA mid-season, leaving him ineligible for the playoff roster. Was this move shortsighted on their part?
2. Can Aurora’s bullpen prevent crooked numbers? In looking at the season series, one thing that stands out is Fargo’s ability to get at the Aurora bullpen with a vengeance, especially late in games. In 12 games this season, Fargo scored 25 runs in the 8^th and 9^th innings. When you consider that Fargo won several of those games and therefore didn’t bat in the 9^th, that’s well over a run per inning in the 8^th and 9^th – not exactly a great recipe for closing out close playoff games. Aurora closer Bryant Burris hasn’t been much of one against Fargo, giving up eight runs in 5.1 innings and allowing the Dinosaurs to hit .417 with a .529 BABIP. Aurora may want to lean heavily on Juan Suárez. “The Vulture” only tossed 3.1 innings against Fargo, but at least he didn’t get knocked around. The same can’t be said for the rest of the Aurora bullpen. The other alternative: win the games 25-15.
3. Will the real Cory Pierce please stand up? The Detroit native has had a monster year, winning the SL batting title with a .358 average. He had power, too, blasting 25 bombs and knocking in 123. So how has he performed against Fargo? Um, well… like a minor leaguer out of his depth. In 31 AB this season, Pierce hit just .129, with a .152 OBP. He managed just one walk and four hits in nine games against Fargo. And remember, Aurora split the season series with this performance. If Pierce performs like he has against the rest of the league, Fargo will struggle.

Three Questions for Fargo GM Cristian Shofar

1. Can Mike Arnopp have a big series? The Fargo DH had a solid season with a .291/.354/.536 line. Against Aurora, he’s been lights-out, batting .333 with 4 HR, 13 RBI, and a 1.092 OPS. But in the past month, the towering Minnesotan has cooled off considerably, hitting just .250/.310/.413. Shofar needs Arnopp to be a force in the middle of the lineup if they are going to prevail.
2. Can the Dinos help a fella out? Even with an unimpressive 11-10 record and despite Craig Hampton’s emergence, many consider the ace of the Fargo staff to be tough-luck southpaw Chandler Davis. In three games against Aurora, Davis pitched 19 innings, giving up just six runs. His record in those three games? 0-1. Fargo managed to scratch out late victories in two of them, but can they do the same in this series? Wouldn’t it be much easier if they could just give Davis an early lead?
3. Raúl, how’s that arm feeling? Borealis CF En-guo Guao, RF John Knight, and 2B Steve McDonald each stole more bases this season than the entire Fargo Dinosaurs’ combined. If the Dino staff can’t keep Aurora off the base paths, Fargo C Raúl Espinoza will have his hands full keeping them from turning singles into doubles and triples. Espinoza is a solid defensive catcher, but he’s in the bottom third at throwing out runners with just a 25% success rate (compared to the league leader, Gloucester’s Rex Groves at 43.2%). These teams are too closely matched for Fargo to be able to give away free bases all series.

Prediction

Aurora’s righty starters continue to struggle against the Dinos. Fargo roughs up Kojima. They split the other games, and Fargo advances, three games to two.