Friday, July 25, 2014

With the All-Star Game now in the rear view mirror, we’ll again look at the fielding independent pitching (FIP) and ERA across the Planetary Extreme Baseball Association. When we subtract ERA from FIP, we can attempt to predict where that pitcher’s ERA will trend. A disclaimer is that one component of FIP, homeruns allowed, is partially influenced by park factors and not solely under the pitcher’s control. If a pitcher’s home park is cavernous, we’d expect him to give up fewer homeruns at home than on the road, and vice versa if the pitcher’s home ballpark is a bandbox. This problem shouldn’t be too much of an issue with this specific assessment, though, because most of these pitchers will remain with their current teams and will be pitching in the same home park for the remainder of this season. Thus, we’d expect consistency of environmental influences on the pitcher’s homeruns allowed numbers, and thusly his FIP.

At this point in the season, I set the minimum IP to qualify for the data set at 100. This resulted in 87 pitchers. The majority are exclusively starters, but there are a few that started some games and relieved in others. Included in the tables below are the following metrics: IP, homeruns allowed, walks, strikeouts, ERA, FIP, and FIP-ERA. Listing HR, BB, and K allows us to tease out what is heavily influencing a particular pitcher’s FIP.

The first table shows the 10 pitchers whose FIP-ERA is greater than .88. A pitcher with a FIP that is larger than his ERA would be considered “lucky” thus far. He could have had a low BABIP, or he may have been lucky in stranding men on base, or a combination of factors that are out of a pitchers’ control (like defense behind the pitcher). These are the “luckiest” starters; we should assume that their ERA will trend upwards.

Ramírez and Cortéz have both been particularly lucky, looking like frontline starters despite peripheral or secondary measures that are lacking overall. Both have FIPs over four. Cortéz’s 4.71 FIP is especially bad compared to pitchers with a sub-3.50 ERA. His 18 homeruns allowed happen to be the second-highest amongst this group (Reed’s 24 is tops). Cortéz has likely been lucky to avoid having base runners on base when giving up his homeruns, something that may not continue going forward and should be cause for concern. His strikeouts and walks aren’t very impressive, either; the ratio is sub-2.00, which isn’t terrible but certainly not great.

Ramírez looks like a control guy, perhaps having some influence on limiting the damage of balls put in play when he pitches. His strikeout total is less than half of his innings pitched thus far and only marginally greater than his walk total for the season. This means that he allows more balls in play than a strikeout pitcher. This also means he relies heavily on the defense behind him to turn those balls into outs. Keep this guy in front of a good defense and he’ll able to keep up a lower ERA, but don’t expect the same results with a neutral or worse defense behind him.

One of the most impressive pitchers on the list has been Cruz. His 1.85 ERA is the best on the list and one of the best in baseball. It’s easy to see that his ability to strikeout hitters while limiting walks has been essential in achieving this production. Even though he’s on the “lucky” list, it’s still quite impressive to see a FIP of 3.03. I’d expect him to remain near the top of the league ERA leaderboard by the end of the season. Cruz, like most of these guys, is a good pitcher.

There are only two pitchers other than Ramírez and Cortéz with FIPs over 4.00. Ando’s 4.08 isn’t all that bad. Reed hasn’t looked very good thus far, but FIP predicts things to get even worse before the year is out if he continues as he has. Right now, he’s looking at possibly 40 homeruns allowed by season’s end. The current record is 39 homeruns allowed, set in 2011 by Nelson Anderson of Crystal Lake. Reed may break that record. He’s already one behind his career high of 25, which he achieved last season while pitching 218 innings.

The next table shows the pitchers who have been unlucky thus far. These pitchers have a FIP lower than their ERA. Conversely to the reasons mentioned above, we would expect high BABIP, low left on base percentages, and/or poor defense behind the pitcher (amongst other possibilities outside the pitcher’s control).

Wow! Scott’s numbers have been good. Scott’s 3.01 FIP is even better than Cruz’s 3.03. What a stark contrast between these pitchers, though! Where Cruz is currently regarded as one of the best starters in the PEBA, Scott’s 4.34 ERA is far from eye-popping. The peripheral numbers are eerily similar, though, right down to the same homeruns allowed. Scott is definitely a sleeper for the rest of the season. San Antonio would be smart to not act impulsively with the pitcher’s role and keep Scott in the rotation. He deserves a much better ERA for the way he’s pitched.

Another very good pitcher who should show progress the rest of the season is Rivera. Rivera has a nice 3.26 FIP and, unfortunately, an ERA above 4.00. He’s shown the same level of “stuff” and ability to strikeout hitters as Scott, with more than a strikeout an inning. He doesn’t give up too many walks and the homeruns allowed is manageable. Expect his ERA to drop into the threes by season’s end.

Ayers is in the same boat as Rivera with an ERA above 4.00 and FIP below 3.40. He’s shown greater control and ability at limiting walks while avoiding too many homeruns and posting a respectable strikeout rate. Takeda’s 3.06 FIP is very good and comes from his impeccable control (19 walks in 143 innings!), though his ERA isn’t much higher than his FIP. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him improve that ERA.

There are a few others in this table that are simply bad starters; their FIP and ERA are both relatively high. Though they may be unlucky to a degree, they may be in danger of losing their current role on their respective teams as the season progresses.

– Steve Youngblood
Fargo Gazette