2007 Draft In Review: Part 4
A Retrospective Look at the PEBA's First-Ever First Year Amateur Draft
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Bryan Hanson – Round 1, pick 14, 14th overall. SP – R
Tall right-hander who throws in the low 90s but has a meager two-pitch arsenal. Hanson had a rough first year in pro ball at the A level but has at least partially gotten back on track the last two seasons. Had a decent season at A-ball this past year (8-5, 2.33 in 20 starts) but will be 24 going into next season and needs to start showing some progress up the ladder. Scouts think he has an outside chance to be a back-of-the-rotation-starter at the PEBA level someday, but it looks as if he may never be the star that was hoped for when he was drafted in the first round.
Felipe Medina – Round 2, pick 14, 38th overall. LF – R
23 years old and has spent 3 seasons in the low minors. Scouts love his ability to hit the ball into the gaps and take extra bases, and he is very tough to strike out. Has no power, no speed, and his defense is below average. May hit well enough to make the PEBA level in some capacity, but the fact that he does nothing else very well probably limits the possibility that he will ever have any real value.
Johnny MacKinney – Round 3, pick 14, 62nd overall. SP – R
Drafted out of high school, MacKinney throws in the low 90s with decent stuff but has yet to harness the control. Walked 78 in 133 innings this past season. On the bright side, he is just 20 years old so there is time yet for him to blossom. Scouts, however, remain skeptical that he can ever master his control issues.
Luis Sánchez – Round 4, pick 14, 86th overall. SP – R
Another pitcher drafted straight from high school, Sánchez is 20 years old and has spent three seasons in the low minors. His stuff fools no one and scouts are skeptical that he will ever develop into anything. Has been relegated to a mostly relief role the past two seasons and pitched limited innings.
Tony Butler – Round 5, pick 14, 110th overall. RF – L
Butler has spent three seasons in A-ball and will be 24 going into next season. He has average speed but no power and plays below average defense. On the fast track to nowhere.
Patrick Hancock – Round 6, pick 14, 134th overall. 1B – L
06-07-2009 Released by the Palm Springs organization.
Talentless hack who is unlikely to ever see another at bat in professional ball.
Hubert Erickson – Round 7, pick 14, 158th overall. RF – R
Has 18 at bats combined the last two seasons. Must have dirt on someone to still even be on a roster.
Mike Hamilton – Round 8, pick 14, 182nd overall. MR – L
Southpaw who can hit 90 MPH on the gun and keep the ball on the ground. 23 years old and still pitching at short season. He has rather limited innings in his 3 seasons in the low minors and is unlikely to see many more. Has almost no upside.
Overall – A bad draft. Hanson may eventually make it to the back end of a rotation, but as a first round pick that will be a huge disappointment. Medina is a real dark horse. The rest of the horses should be put down.
Mario Salinas – Round 1, pick 18, 18th overall. 2B – R
After two-plus seasons in the low minors, the 23-year-old Salinas made the move to AA early this season and seemed to take a small step forward. He batted .284 with 29 2B after batting .258 with 35 2B last season at A-ball. Scouts think he will hit at least well enough to make it to the PEBA level, and he has displayed some good power to the gaps. Scouts also believe he will have at least average home run power, but he has yet to display it. Plays decent defense, has above average speed and does the little things well. Should contribute at the PEBA level eventually, but at the moment he appears to be slow to develop in some areas and he may never reach the potential stardom that would have been expected of a first round draft pick.
Nelson Martínez – Round 2, pick 18, 42nd overall. SP – R
A right-hander who can hit the low 90s, Martínez seems to have been poorly handled in his development, bouncing around the minor levels somewhat haphazardly in his first couple of seasons. Seemed to stabilize a bit this year once he settled in at AA; 8-3, 3.98 in 117 innings split between the bullpen and rotation. Scouts are not sold that he will ever have the stuff to have success against hitters at the higher levels, but they do think somewhat highly of his control. Seems to be slowly moving forward, but he will need to take much bigger strides if he is ever to make it to the PEBA level as a back-end-of-the-rotation-starter. At this moment, his chances of that seem rather low.
Thomas Taylor – Round 3, pick 18, 66th overall. MR – R
Soft-tossing right-hander who has done nothing in three seasons of A-ball that would suggest he will ever rise any higher. He is 23 and time is running out. He lacks anything resembling talent.
António Pérez – Round 4, pick 18, 90th overall. 1B – R
Pérez can play very good defense at either corner infield position, and his strong arm would make him a good fit at third base. He took a nice step forward this season in limited at bats at AA, batting .328/.404 with 5 HR in 198 at bats. Scouts remain a bit mixed about how much power he will develop, but most think he will for enough of an average to at least make the PEBA level at some point. Considering his defensive skills, learning to play the middle infield positions and making himself more versatile might enhance his chances of one day being of value at the PEBA level, possibly as a utility infielder.
Dean Bailey – Round 5, pick 18, 114th overall. 1B – L
12-19-2008 Was traded by the Reno Tenpinners to the Tempe Knights in exchange for SP Greg Jackson.
This has to be considered at least a marginally good deal for Tempe, as Jackson now has a career record of 3-18, 5.42 in 26 starts at the PEBA level. The 20-year-old Bailey projects to have very good power to the gaps, which will make him a great fit with the huge gaps in Tempe's park. He may even possess a bit of home run power, though it's unlikely he will ever be a masher. Has awful plate discipline, walking 13 times and striking out 118 in 443 at bats at AAA this year, clearly demonstrating that going straight from short season ball last year to AAA this year was probably not a good idea. He should play at the PEBA level someday and, being that is now in the Tempe organization, that time will probably come way too soon.
Jerry Hopkins – Round 6, pick 18, 138th overall. 1B – R
Hasn't shown much in three seasons in the low minors and scouts doubt he ever will. Hopkins has warning track power and adequate defensive ability. He may make it to AA someday, but that's about the most that can be expected.
Robert Reed – Round 7, pick 18, 162nd overall. 2B – R
The 20-year-old Reed has made some nice strides in his 3 seasons in pro ball. His career numbers in 784 at bats at Single A show a .291 AVG, .325 OBP, 47 doubles, 10 triples and 6 home runs. Still very young with a lot of work to do on his plate discipline, but scouts believe in time he will hit well enough to make the PEBA level. His defense is rather average and could use some work, and his speed is adequate but nothing that will really scare opponents too often. Considering his age, it might take a little while before the plate discipline comes around, but the numbers he has posted so far are promising and it would not be a big surprise to see him at the PEBA level in about three seasons.
Ernesto Ramos – Round 8, pick 18, 186th overall. 3B – R
06-21-2009 Released by the Reno organization.
Was released after getting a total of 68 at bats over the course of his two-plus seasons in the Reno organization. Unlikely to see a professional roster again.
Overall – Not a lot to get excited about here. Having late-round selection Reed develop into something might take some of the sting out of the other failures, but overall this Reno draft will be remembered more for the failures than anything else.
San Antonio Calzones of Laredo
Eric Olsen – Round 1, pick 6, 6th overall. RF – R
06-01-2008 Was traded by the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo to the Gloucester Fishermen, along with 1B J.J. Johnson, a 2nd draft pick, two 3rd round draft picks and a 5th round draft pick, in exchange for 1B Octávio Pexego.
The deal that sent Olsen to Gloucester may eventually be more remembered for the amount of draft picks given up by San Antonio than for Olsen. Olsen has yet to live up to his high draft selection. His career numbers at the single A level are .268/.309 with 4 HR and 40 stolen bases in 366 at bats. Despite never really mastering the low minors with his bat, Olsen was rushed through AA, getting just 188 at bats and batting a meager .239/.291 with 2 HR and 7 stolen bags. His AAA numbers are not very inspiring to this point either; .242/.299 in 629 at bats at AAA over the last two seasons, with 11 HR and 29 stolen bags. The numbers to this point do nothing to justify the confidence the scouts have in him that he will someday be a very productive player at the PEBA level.
Jim Yarbrough – Round 3, pick 6, 54th overall. SP – R
06-23-2008 Was traded by the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo to the Tempe Knights, along with SP Augusto Colomo, in exchange for LF John Knapp, CF A. Young and 2B Gerald Jones.
Yarbrough seems unlikely to ever master his control issues. Walked 91 in 150 innings at two minor league stops in 2009. Presently toiling in the Tempe organization.
Cristián García – Round 4, pick 6, 78th overall. SP – L
12-09-2007 Was traded by the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo to the Kentucky Thoroughbreds, along with SS Iván Cardenas, CL José Álvarez and SS Darby Parker, in exchange for 2B Naizen Nakayama, SP Gary Fisher, LF Daron Little and SP Sixto Núñez.
The left-handed García has great endurance, and scouts think he might have the ability to achieve at least marginal control someday. Posted decent numbers this past season, his third in the low minors (12-5, 3.18). He still seems to lack the stuff to dominate, walking 61 while striking out just 85 in 155.2 IP. Still young at just 20 years old, so he has time to take a step forward, but scouts remain skeptical it will ever happen. Presently projects as a decent career minor leaguer. The key piece in the trade that sent García to Kentucky was Sixto Núñez, who is presently at AAA Joplin and coming off a moderately successful season at the level at the tender age of 19.
Chet Miller – Round 5, pick 6, 102nd overall. SP – R
A soft-tosser who is an extreme ground ball pitcher, Miller has very good endurance but a meager three-pitch arsenal that hardly impresses batters. Has probably reached his ceiling at AA unless a light goes on very soon, which just doesn't seem likely.
Nick Harris – Round 5, pick 19, 115th overall. CF – R
11-25-2008 Was traded by the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo to the Aurora Borealis in exchange for 3B Allen Robinson.
The trade that sent Harris to Aurora has the potential to be about a wash when all is said and done. Both players project to be not much more than role players at the PEBA level. Harris has great speed; he stole 54 bases at three stops during the 2008 season. He has good range in the outfield but is hampered by a weak arm. Scouts are a bit mixed about his potential with the bat, with many thinking he might make a decent fourth outfielder at the PEBA level someday but not much more. His plate discipline has been very questionable to this point, making it easy to believe the scouts assessment.
Sadakuno Hashimoto – Round 6, pick 6, 126th overall. SP – R
A soft-tosser who is an extreme ground ball pitcher and does well at keeping the ball in the park. That is about the best you can say about him. He’s a bit weak on the endurance and has pitched limited innings from a swingman role over the course of his three seasons. Quickly losing ground within the organization to any pitcher who has a pulse.
Ki-hyuk O – Round 6, pick 17, 137th overall. SP – R
Extreme ground ball pitcher who can hit the low 90s, has a 7-pitch arsenal and has great endurance. Completed 5 of his 19 starts this season at single A Drumright, posting a 4-8 record with a 3.67 ERA. Was a hard luck loser many times, losing 8 of his last 9 decisions. Missed the entire season of pro ball in 2007 after herniating a disc in his back, but since he was drafted out of high school he’s still just 20 years old. O has enough going for him that he will hang around for awhile, but he’s somewhat of a dark horse to ever make it to the PEBA level.
Dan Edwards – Round 6, pick 19, 139th overall. SP – L
06-23-2008 Released by the San Antonio organization.
06-29-2008 Signed a 0-year minor league contract with the Tempe Knights organization.
Career numbers at AA: 3-10, 4.73 in 13 starts, with 41 BB and 28 K. At AAA: 2-6, 6.97 in 10 starts, a 1.90 WHIP, 36 walks and 13 strikeouts. A mere talentless hack toiling in the Tempe organization.
Conner Dugles – Round 8, pick 6, 174th overall.
08-07-2009 Released by the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo.
A defensive specialist with no batting skill. May catch on somewhere in the low minors with a team desperate for a utility infielder, but that's the best-case scenario.
Overall – Being able to move Olsen, García and Harris in deals essentially wiped out anything resembling talent to come out of this draft for the Calzones. Still some modest hope that the pitcher O may turn into something of value, but otherwise the well ran dry fairly quick on the 2007 draft for the Calzones.
Will George – Round 1, pick 17, 17th overall. 3B – R
11-02-2008 Was traded by the Tempe Knights to the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo, along with C Brock Brett, 2B Miguel Angel González, a 1st round draft pick and a 4th draft pick, in exchange for 1B Octávio Pexego, SS Charles Randall, SP Jeff Fish, MR Ichiyo Sekiguchi and SS Chet Davis.
12-17-2008 Was traded by the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo to the Omaha Cyclones, along with C Lorenzo Vega, in exchange for SP Norris Moncreiff and SP Kisho Ageda.
George has been involved in two interesting deals in his brief career, first going to San Antonio and then leaving for Omaha. In the deal that sent George to San Antonio, the Calzones unloaded a contract in Pexago that they just could not afford to keep, despite paying a hefty price to get him originally from Gloucester. They did manage to recoup some value in return, as Brett looks as if he may at least share the starting catching job in San Antonio in the not-too-distant future, and the draft picks received helped rebuild the farm system. Then George was dealt to Omaha as a sweetener that enabled them to move Vega's contract and clear a bit of a logjam at the catching position. George does not project to have much power for a corner infielder, but he should be an on base machine as he has a great eye at the plate. He has a very good arm from the hot corner, though his other defensive skills are just adequate at best. Had a decent season at A-ball this year, batting .303/.374 with 24 doubles in 396 at bats. Just 20 years old, but has a very good chance to make a real impact at the PEBA level in about 3 years.
Garry Mullins – Round 2, pick 17, 41st overall. 2B – R
06-23-2008 Released by the Tempe organization.
06-29-2008 Signed a 0-year minor league contract with the Bakersfield Bears organization.
The inexplicable release of Mullins is symptomatic of what is wrong with a Tempe organization that has posted a .373 winning percentage combined at all levels of their minor leagues over the first three seasons of PEBA's existence. Mullins was bounced all the way to AA by Tempe mere weeks after being drafted. Returned to A-ball the following season, he was showing some nice improvement in the batting eye department in very limited at bats, posting a .348 OBP in 21 games. Then he was released. Why release a 2nd round pick after barely 300 at bats at the minor league level? Bakersfield signed Mullins and let him get some time at short season ball in 2008, where he batted .311 in limited at bats. In 2009 Mullins was back at A-ball, a more appropriate level, as the Bears sought to salvage Mullins’s career. He responded by hitting .344/.383 with 28 doubles, 3 triples, 6 HR and a 34.1 VORP in just 349 at bats. Mullins doesn't have great speed and doesn't project to hit for power. His defense needs some work. Still, he can hit and most scouts believe he will hit well enough to make it to the PEBA level in some capacity at some point.
John Knapp – Round 3, pick 17, 65th overall. LF – R
06-23-2008 Was traded by the Tempe Knights to the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo, along with CF A. Young and 2B Gerald Jones, in exchange for SP Augusto Colomo and SP Jim Yarbrough.
12-19-2008 Was traded by the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo to the New Jersey Hitmen, along with CF Yoshino Miyata, SP Norris Moncreiff, 3B Lee Kohler and CF Jason Davis, in exchange for C Manuel González, SP Luis Peña and SP Keith Bandelow.
Knapp plays decent defense but doesn't do enough else to ever make the PEBA level. The numbers to this point have been anything but inspiring and he seems destined for a career toiling in the minor leagues. Presently in the New Jersey system, where he hit .147 in 129 at bats at AAA this past season after batting .254 in 382 at bats at AA during the first part of the season.
Ramón Rodríguez – Round 4, pick 17, 89th overall. SP – R
Career numbers at single A: 2-15, 4.90, 58 BB and 64 K in 148.2 IP.
Career numbers at AA: 1-4, 6.25, 19 BB and 7 K in 31.2 IP.
Career numbers at AAA: 0-4, 4.30, 51 BB and 29 K in 67 IP.
So what does a 3-23 career record in the minors earn a 20-year-old pitcher? Why, a trip to Tempe of course.
Wilbur Garland – Round 5, pick 17, 113th overall. SP – L
12-12-2007 Was traded by the Tempe Knights to the West Virginia Coal Sox in exchange for SP Bernardo Sánchez.
Garland does not project to be much of a prospect, but he's just 20 and is still in pro ball, which is more than can be said for the player he was traded for.
Júlio Trujillo – Round 7, pick 6, 150th overall. RF – L
04-06-2008 Released by the Tempe organization.
04-15-2008 Signed a 0-year minor league contract with the Bakersfield Bears organization.
23 years old and does nothing well enough to ever make the PEBA level.
Cipriano Valdéz – Round 7, pick 17, 161st overall.
01-27-2008 Released by the Tempe organization.
02-29-2008 Signed a 0-year minor league contract with the New Orleans Trendsetters organization.
Valdéz has some decent defensive skills but he will never hit. Has probably reached his ceiling at A-ball in the Trendsetters organization.
Overall – The George pick looked good, and Mullins had enough talent to be given a chance but was ushered out the door way too soon. Ramón Rodríguez made it to the PEBA level, but that's more of an indictment of the madness that seems to infect the Tempe organization than anything else. The Tempe 2007 draft was an exercise in futility, but the train wreck sure makes for great entertainment.
Jorge Guavara – Round 1, pick 5, 5th overall. CF – R
Guavara projects as a true stud when he is fully developed. He has blazing speed and should develop good power. His skills with the glove are well above average. The concern has to be the pace at which he is being rushed through the West Virginia farm system. He has yet to dominate at any level, his plate discipline is very lacking and he's just 20 years old. While West Virginia's approach is nowhere near as haphazard as Tempe's, we do believe Guavara would benefit from a less pressured pace. Still, when he makes it to the PEBA level he will be a force.
Gus Wilson – Round 2, pick 5, 29th overall. 2B – R
06-28-2009 Was traded by the West Virginia Coal Sox to the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo in exchange for C Shinsaku Ito.
A decent deal for both teams, as they dealt from positions of strength and at the same time helped a division rival fill a need within their organization. Wilson is presently rated the #83 prospect in PEBA. Wilson has good speed but doesn't seem aggressive enough on the base paths to ever put up really big numbers of stolen bases. He projects to be tough to strike out and should hit well enough to make the PEBA level. He’s probably being rushed a bit to AAA by the San Antonio organization, and the likelihood is he will need more than one season at AAA before he gets the promotion to Laredo. Has good defensive range and an arm that is good enough to play anywhere on the infield, but needs to work on having softer hands.
Juan Díaz – Round 4, pick 5, 77th overall. SP – R
Díaz is 23 years old, has a 7-17 career mark in the low minors and is unlikely to progress much further. Shows no ability to harness his control. Will have to work extra hard to remove the bust tag, and we really don't see than happening.
Rob Harrison – Round 5, pick 5, 101st overall. 1B – L
Harrison regressed this season in his second shot at AA, a somewhat surprising development. Projects as a good-fielding first baseman with average power, but scouts are beginning to wonder if his lack of plate discipline could be thwarting his further development. Still has an outside chance to make it to the PEBA level, but has to reverse his recent backslide.
Dick Little – Round 6, pick 5, 125th overall. CF – R
Obviously not very well liked by his parents, this poorly-named fellow still has a decent shot to make it to the PEBA level, probably as a 4th outfielder someday. Has great speed and very good defensive skills, but lacks plate discipline and will probably hit just enough to be eventually be useful in a reserve role off the bench.
Bud McCullough – Round 6, pick 10, 130th overall. SP – R
12-12-2007 Was traded by the West Virginia Coal Sox to the Charleston Statesmen, along with SP Anthony Cox, MR Cade Phillips and 1B Yong-zhan Hu, in exchange for SP Ralph Dean, MR Shigeaki Otani, 3B Alard van der Kooij and a 4th round draft pick.
A soft-tossing right-hander, McCullough lacks the stuff to dominate hitters or the control to stay out of jams. Just 20 years old, his numbers in the low minors through three seasons were not completely terrible so there is some hope he could develop. Unless the Statesmen find a genie in a lamp, it's doubtful McCullough makes it past AA.
Kevin Cochran – Round 7, pick 5, 149th overall. MR – R
Has pitched three seasons at the AA level with decent results, but Cochran is 23 and doesn't project to be much more than he is right now. Barely taps 90 MPH on the gun. Has decent control but no ability to dominate hitters.
Craig Miller – Round 8, pick 5, 173 rd overall. 2B – R
Miller took a nice step forward in his third year in the low minors, taking advantage of increased playing time at the Single A level to bat .318/.362 in 223 at bats over the second half of the season. Miller plays about average defense but has a weak arm that probably limits him to the right side of the infield. His bat projects to at least utility infielder quality at the PEBA level, but his lack of power and that scrawny arm might be drawbacks to him ever reaching that lofty goal. His best shot at the PEBA would be continued progression with the bat and showing off the above average speed. Just 20 years old, so he has plenty of time to step forward.
Overall – Guavara has the potential to be a stud. Moving Wilson to bring a needed catching prospect in Ito was a good move for West Virginia. Getting potential role players like Little and Miller fairly late in the draft helps. All things considered, a decent draft.
Pedro Álvarez – Round 1, pick 22, 22nd overall. MR – R
Álvarez can bring it at 95 MPH, but struggled in his first two years at A-ball. Became less hittable in 2009 at the upper levels of the minor leagues, but still struggles mightily with the control issues. He could make it into the middle of a PEBA bullpen if he ever harnesses the control, but for a first round pick his upside seems rather limited despite the live arm.
Randy Harris – Round 2, pick 22, 46th overall. C – L
Average defensive skills, and his bat projects as borderline backup at the PEBA level. His numbers in three seasons in the low minors have done nothing to justify the scouts’ assessments or his second round pick. Just 20, but quickly closing in a bust label.
Andy Hood – Round 3, pick 22, 70th overall. C – R
12-18-2008 Was traded by the Yuma Bulldozers to the Crystal Lake Sandgnats, along with LF Brad Howell, in exchange for MR Markus Shepherd and SP Santiago Carmona.
Hood's defensive skills are rather average, but he projects to hit enough to be at least a platoon catcher at the PEBA level. Traded to Crystal Lake after the 2008 season, Hood is presently 23 years old and still at single A but should begin to move forward soon.
Júlio Berrios – Round 4, pick 22, 94th overall. LF – R
Berrios has very good speed and will leg out a lot of extra base hits. Should hit enough to make it to the PEBA level, where his speed off the bench will make him a valuable fifth outfielder off the bench. His limited range probably limits him to playing the corner outfield spots; despite his speed, he just doesn't seem to get very good jumps on the ball and would be a liability in centerfield. After two seasons at A-ball he skipped AA and went straight to AAA in 2009. Probably needs another year of seasoning but could be a decent role player as early as 2011.
Sake Zeitler – Round 5, pick 22, 118th overall. 2B – R
20 years old and has spent three seasons in the low minors. Scouts think his bat has the potential to be at least utility infield quality at the PEBA level, but he has no speed, no power and plays below average defense, making it highly unlikely that he will ever escape the minor leagues.
Roy Hopper – Round 7, pick 22, 166th overall. SP – R
A career mark of 17-33 in 3 seasons at the A-ball level, and has walked more than he has struck out. He’s regressing each season; not a good sign. Just 20 years old, so he has still has plenty of time to pick a new career.
Brenton Murphy – Round 8, pick 22, 190th overall. 3B – R
23 years old and has all of 18 at bats over three seasons in pro ball. And in reality, it was probably 18 too many.
Overall – No standout talents here, but first rounder Álvarez has a chance to at least be useful someday, as does Berrios, though neither will be stars. Packaging Hood in a deal that netted the reliever Shepherd might have been an okay move; Shepherd has helped the Yuma pen and Hood projects to be an average PEBA catcher in a best-case scenario. All in all it’s not a great draft, but it’s not the worst draft either.