2007 Draft In Review: Part 2
A Retrospective Look at the PEBA's First-Ever First Year Amateur Draft
Monday, September 28, 2009
Chad Hull – Round 1, Pick 13, 13th overall. C – S
07-31-2008 Was traded by the Crystal Lake Sandgnats to the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo, along with a 8th round draft pick, in exchange for MR José Ortíz.
The deal that sent Hull to San Antonio has worked out fairly well for both teams. Ortíz has been a reliable reliever for the Sandgnats, and Hull has been rushed to AAA in the Calzones organization. Hull is a switch-hitter who has average skills behind the plate. He runs better than most catchers, though his moderate speed is unlikely to translate into many stolen bags. Scouts believe he will hit for a decent average at the PEBA level and have just a little pop, maybe capable of 12-15 home runs at his peak. Still has a lot of work to do on his plate discipline, but should reach the PEBA level as at least a backup catcher within 2 seasons and an eventual starting job is not out of the question. Rumored to be on the trade block by a Calzones organization deep in catching but light on pitching.
Dewey Blackwell – Round 2, Pick 13, 37th overall. 2B – S
12-11-2007 Was traded by the Crystal Lake Sandgnats to the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo, along with CF Jack Miller, 3B Francisco Morales, MR Domingo Cuna, 1B Milton Wyatt, C Shinsaku Ito and SS Ted Wilder, in exchange for 1B P.J. Thomas and CL Merlin Peters.
11-02-2008 Was traded by the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo to the Manchester Maulers in exchange for MR Gary Fisher.
06-07-2009 Was traded by the Manchester Maulers to the Omaha Cyclones, along with MR José Antonio García, SS Ben Proctor, a 3rd round draft pick and a 4th round draft pick, in exchange for C Jacques Fillion and an 11th round draft pick.
Blackwell has been involved in three trades in his young career and has never had a chance to really get settled in anywhere. Presently in the Omaha organization, he came over in a deal that really netted the Cyclones a pretty good haul. Blackwell plays decent defense and has the ability to put the ball in the gaps, but has no real power and very little speed. His game will be hitting for a decent average and getting on base. He finally displayed some patience at the plate this season, walking 61 times while striking out 61 times in 4 stops at the minor league level. Still has work to do in that area, but projects to eventually make a PEBA roster.
Shinsaku Ito – Round 3, Pick 13, 61st overall. C – R
12-11-2007 Was traded by the Crystal Lake Sandgnats to the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo, along with CF Jack Miller, 3B Francisco Morales, MR Domingo Cuna, 1B Milton Wyatt, 2B Dewey Blackwell and SS Ted Wilder, in exchange for 1B P.J. Thomas and CL Merlin Peters.
06-28-2009 Was traded by the San Antonio Calzones of Laredo to the West Virginia Coal Sox in exchange for SS Gus Wilson.
Ito rates as below average behind the plate, but still scouts rather well with the bat. Was rushed a bit by the Calzones organization, West Virginia has taken a longer term approach and placed Ito at AA. Doesn't project to have much power or speed, but scouts think he will hit for a decent average and show better plate discipline someday. Projects to be a starter at the PEBA level in the not-too-distant future.
Forrest O'Connor – Round 4, Pick 13, 85th overall. 2B – R
His first season at pro ball was a disaster as he hit just .193, but he has made decent progress since then. Just 20 years old and has three seasons of pro ball under his belt. Not expected to develop any power and has no speed. Scouts still think he may hit well enough to play at the PEBA level in some capacity. His rather mediocre defense might be a concern.
Darwin Knight – Round 5, Pick 13, 109th overall. 2B – R
Another second baseman taken by the Sandgnats in this draft, Knight offers a little more promise than O'Connor in that Knight has very good speed and could be an asset on the base paths. Much like O'Conner, his defense is a bit lacking and he has no power. Just 20 years old and still a lot of work to do on the plate discipline. A very good chance he contributes something at the PEBA level eventually, at least as a utility player.
Michael Reynolds – Round 7, Pick 13, 157th overall. LF – L
Just 20 years old and in third year of pro ball, Reynolds has shredded in short season ball the last two seasons, batting .351/.394 with 30 doubles in 538 at bats. His defense is rather below average save for a very good arm, and he lacks speed, but scouts believe he will hit enough to eventually make the PEBA level. Has not displayed much home run power yet, but scouts believe he will eventually show at least some power and his very good size leads one to believe that he could become a masher someday.
Overall – Six picks, and six players who should all contribute at least something at the PEBA level. In that respect, this was a successful draft for the Sandgnats. Hull, Blackwell and Ito were all packaged in the deal that brought in Peters and Thomas, two cornerstones of the Sandgnats present success. O'Connor, Knight and Reynolds remain in the Sandgnats system and, while all three are slower to develop, all still stand a decent chance of contributing at the PEBA level at some point.
Steve Henry – Round 1, Pick 24, 24th overall.
12-12-2007 Was traded by the Duluth Warriors to the Charleston Statesmen, along with RF Edgardo Sánchez, 1B Fernando López and SP Matt Howard, in exchange for 3B Anastasio Calderón and 3B Stan Gill.
07-19-2009 Was traded by the Charleston Statesmen to the West Virginia Coal Sox, along with SP José Ávila, RF Edgardo Sánchez and a 7th round draft pick, in exchange for SP Mathys Crête, RF Alberto Sandoval and SP Cisco Borges.
Has been traded twice, and the numbers tell the story. His career numbers at A-ball are .212/.284 with 12 HR in 659 AB; at AA, .216/.292 with 3 HR in 408 at bats. Cut his errors down to 16 from 23 last year, and has a very good arm. He needs to turn it around soon, but the numbers so far look fairly bleak. As mentioned before, I like the deal Duluth made here, getting Gill and Howard and unloading Henry in the process. West Virginia may have rolled the dice a bit taking Henry in the trade with Charleston, but getting Sánchez may lessen that blow, and Ávila could eventually be all right. Until he proves otherwise, Henry is a bust.
Fernando López – Round 2, Pick 24, 48th overall. 1B – R
12-12-2008 Was traded by the Duluth Warriors to the Charleston Statesmen, along with RF Edgardo Sánchez and 3B Steve Henry, in exchange for 3B Anastasio Calderón, SP Matt Howard and 3B Stan Gill.
03-17-2009 Released by the Charleston organization.
05-18-2009 Signed a 0-year minor league contract with the Duluth Warriors organization.
Despite his size, López is a slap-hitting first basemen who does almost nothing well. Was included in the Gill deal, later released by Charleston, and eventually brought back to Duluth. Spent the season as a bench player at short season, and his ceiling may not be much higher than that. The fact that he was useful in a deal that netted Duluth something is a plus, but as far as López and his future it's not hard to label him a bust.
Shawn Wagner – Round 3, Pick 24, 72nd overall. LF – S
06-14-2009 Was traded by the Duluth Warriors to the Crystal Lake Sandgnats, along with CL Trent Roberts, in exchange for SP Marv Cooper and a 6th round draft pick.
A slap-hitter who strikes out too much, Wagner was an awful pick in the third round. As strange as it sounds, they made an even worse move when they traded him away. Roberts, the closer sent to Crystal Lake in the deal, has great potential to be a back-of-the-bullpen asset. Getting a 29-year-old journeyman pitcher who will never amount to anything more than a AAA pitcher and a sixth round draft pick in return makes the deal a very bad one for Duluth. As much as we give them kudos for the Gill deal, we don't think they thought this one through very well at all.
Bobby Gallagher – Round 4, Pick 24, 96th overall. CL – R
Only throws in the mid 80s and has no ability to get a strikeout. His control seems to be regressing each year. Just 20 years old so he could turn it around, but that seems highly unlikely as there is just not much talent to work with here.
Jesús Ramírez – Round 5, Pick 24, 120th overall. SS – R
A singles hitter who strikes out way too much, Ramírez has the starting shortstop position for the Duluth Warriors. He plays good defense and has a bit of speed, but as a hitter he will never have much value. Has 7 walks and 101 strikeouts in 416 at bats, and the plate discipline is never expected to improve. Despite the fact that he is at the PEBA level, his -7.4 VORP and zero chance of ever really being any better than that makes it hard to call this selection a success. Let's just call it a waste.
Todd Brooks – Round 6, Pick 24, 144th overall. RF – R
12-12-2007 Was traded by the Duluth Warriors to the Palm Springs Codgers, along with a 3rd round draft pick, in exchange for SP Alfredo Martínez.
Brooks is in his third season in the low minors and, despite the fact that he tore up short season ball at age 23, he is borderline prospect whose best chance of ever making a PEBA roster is a serious rash of injuries. In spite of that, the deal that sent Brooks to Palm Springs has to be considered a huge loss for Duluth. Along with giving up Brooks, they gave up a third round draft pick and in return received a pitcher who couldn't find the plate with a seeing eye dog even if you left a pork chop on it.
Carlos Martínez – Round 7, Pick 24, 168th overall. 1B – L
Martínez showed some progress as a 23-year-old in his third go around at A-ball, batting .312 with 10 HR, but scouts believe he is fairly close to reaching his ceiling and will never be much more than what he is right now; a decent A-ball player who will probably struggle at AA. His lack of plate discipline is a huge drawback making further progress somewhat unlikely.
Ángel Peña – Round 8, Pick 24, 192 overall. CF – L
Much like Martínez, Peña showed something finally at age 23 in his third year of A-ball, hitting .330. But scouts believe that is as good as it gets for 2007's Mr. Irrelevant, as he has no speed, no power, weak defense, and has pretty much closed in on his ceiling.
Overall – A bad draft. Give kudos for the Gill deal that brought in some talent, but otherwise this draft by Duluth was a complete disaster. The deal that brought in the brutally bad Alfredo Martínez takes some of the luster off the Gill deal. No player drafted by Duluth in the 2007 draft is likely to make any real contribution at the PEBA level, and that includes the highly suspect Ramírez.
Mike Arnopp – Round 1, Pick 11, 11th overall. 1B – L
Almost all sources agree that Arnopp is a top 10 prospect. Despite that fact, he is just the second best prospect in the Fargo organization according to Baseball America. A tall left-handed batter standing 6' 8”, Arnopp has been a bit rushed this year, speeding through AA and AAA on his way to a September call-up. Considering his struggles at AAA and the fact that has power has not really developed yet (just 1 HR in 106 AAA at bats), another year at AAA probably would not hurt the promising prospect.
Nick Miller – Round 2, Pick 11, 35th overall. LF – L
Miller finally began to show some progress as a 23-year-old in his third of A-ball. Scouts have soured on him and his numbers have done nothing to justify the high draft selection. Could maybe have enough power to someday be a useful option off the bench, though he really needs to turn it up a notch soon if he is ever to get out of the minors at all.
Manny Rodríguez – Round 3, Pick 11, 59th overall. RF – S
Fared okay in his first go around at AA this past season, but probably needs to repeat the level. Scouts think he does enough well that he could eventually be a decent fourth outfielder. Rodríguez has decent range and a good arm in the outfield. He has some moderate speed and may develop just enough power to be a minor threat. Has a looping swing and strikeouts may always be a concern. Should be a bench player at the PEBA level someday, but hard to see him being much more than that.
Carlos Ríos – Round 4, Pick 11, 83rd overall. 2B – L
Ríos has decent defensive ability, but has no speed and scouts doubt his bat will ever get him farther than AA. Struggled at AA this past season, batting just .237, and is quickly approaching what scouts feel is his ceiling. Highly doubtful he goes much further.
Ronnie Russell – Round 6, Pick 11, 131st overall. 1B – R
Showed some real promise when he broke out at A-ball in the first half of the season, batting .303 with a .391 OBP, 20 2B, 14 HR, 72 RBI and 36.5 VORP in 346 AB. Struggled a bit in his call-up to AA Toronto but still managed to add 5 HR to his total for the season. A better year at AA next year might be expected for the experienced Russell. Not to be overlooked is that he displayed a bit of speed for a corner infielder, swiping 17 bags in his two minor league stops. The 19 HR and 17 SB aren't bad for a 1B at any level, and if he can repeat or improve upon those numbers he has quite a chance to put himself on the map as a borderline prospect.
Raúl Espinoza – Round 7, Pick 11, 155th overall. C – L
His catching skills are barely average, he runs like a catcher and he has little home run power, but it's really hard to overlook the .339 average and 42 doubles in 348 at bats at the A level before a late season promotion to AA. His plate discipline is possibly better than scouts give him credit for. Some scouts think he has reached his potential and could play in the PEBA as a bottom-tier starting catcher right now, but what remains to be seen is if Espinoza can build upon his success and maybe become something more. For a seventh round pick, his future still holds some promise.
Paco Pabalate – Round 8, Pick 11, 179th overall. 3B – R
06-15-2008 Released by the Fargo organization.
06-29-2008 Signed a 1-year minor league contract with the Nezahualcóyotl Coyotes organization.
Released by Fargo and presently stashed on the Coyotes’ 35-man roster, Pabalate has at least some minor potential. It will be interesting to see if it develops at all in the ABSF. Scouts think his PEBA ceiling would be roughly AAA, with some power but lacking in plate discipline.
Overall – An interesting and successful draft by Fargo, even if they are still waiting for it to deliver fruit at the PEBA level. Arnopp alone should make this draft a success, but interesting players Russell and Espinoza should really give the Fargo organization some hope for the future. Miller and Rodríguez might be somewhat disappointing because of their high selections, but both have at least some chance of offering something at the PEBA level someday. Ríos looks like a bust, and we wonder if they didn't give up on Pabalate too soon, but overall if you’re a Fargo fan you have to like the potential impact this draft will have in another couple of years.
Dan Jamison – Round 1, Pick 20, 20th overall. CF – R
Despite skipping AA and having just a half of a season at AAA, Jamison has made the jump to Florida and should be a fixture at the top of the Featherheads lineup for years to come. His bat is already PEBA level, but he has some upside yet. His plate discipline still has room for improvement and with that should come an increase in the batting average and on base percentage in seasons to come. Has no power but legs out more than his share of extra base hits, hitting 41 doubles in 2007, 44 in 2008 and 41 between two stops in 2009. Also has world-class speed; should win stolen base crowns in the next few seasons. 42 swiped bags in 2007, 52 steals in 2008 and 55 thefts so far in 2009, including 26 at the PEBA level. Covers a lot of ground in the outfield and has a very good arm, but has a little problem with his hands on occasion. Does the little things well and plays the game smart. Should be one of the PEBA's premier leadoff hitters for years to come.
Tim Holliday – Round 2, Pick 20, 44th overall. SS – S
Plays decent defense and has great speed, but the fact that he is 23 and just completed his third season of pro ball at the short season level is troubling. Even more concerning: he hit .238 in that third season. The fact is he is probably never going to hit, and at this point he could safely be called a major bust.
Karl Miles – Round 3, Pick 20, 68th overall. 1B – R
Miles is very similar to Holliday. He is 23 and just completed his third season of pro ball. Despite having experience, he hit just .253 at the A level. He did hit .303 at short season ball in 2008, but scouts think that might be as good as it ever gets. Could play adequate defense anywhere on the infield, but won't hit for power. For that matter, scouts just don't believe he will hit. He will steal a bag or two on occasion and has good speed. He doesn't project to ever be much more than a utility infielder who maybe reaches AA someday, but that's probably about it.
Wayne Miley – Round 4, Pick 20, 92nd overall. MR – R
Soft-tossing right hander who has walked more than he has struck out in his pro career; 50 BB versus 41 strikeouts in three seasons in the low minors. His other numbers are very unimpressive as well. Just 20 years old, so he might float around the minors for a few more seasons, but there is not much to work with here and not much hope that he will ever become anything more than what he is right now.
Michael Badger – Round 5, Pick 20, 116th overall. 2B – R
Has some defensive skill, has some speed, but is 23 years old and finished the season at the short season level; not good for a player in his third year of pro ball. Has yet to hit and scouts see very little upside to his bad. Taken in context with the Holliday and Miles selections above, the Featherheads seem to have had a player personnel department hell bent on drafting a team of Mario Mendoza-like infielders in 2007.
Bernardo Nava – Round 6, Pick 20, 140th overall. 2B – R
Can smack singles and strike out. Steals some bases and is fairly good at dropping a bunt. His defense is below average. Despite a high average, he comes from the hack-and-whack school of hitting, meaning he will never do anything other than hit singles and strike out, making him nearly useless as a player.
Chase McClure – Round 7, Pick 20, 164th overall. LF – R
Let's see if we've heard this one before; 23 years old, just finished 3rd season of pro ball and is still in the low minors? Has some speed, but no plate discipline and unlikely he will ever advance any further.
Sterling Fuller – Round 8, Pick 20, 188th overall. 3B – S
Could play decent defense at the hot corner, but here we go again; 23 years old, third season of pro ball, all spent in the low minors. Has received all of 64 at bats in three seasons in the low minors. A little speed, no power, no plate discipline, no future in baseball.
Overall – Jamison will be a very good player for a long time. But after that the well runs dry as far as the 2007 Featherheads draft is concerned. Having major busts in the second and third rounds has to hurt at least a little; fortunately Florida has a young core of players and should have time to recover from the debacle that was the 2007 draft.
Kurt Thornton – Round 1, Pick 9, 9th overall. SS – R
Has good range, but his hands are not very soft and his arm a bit weak. Best projects at second base. Was Hancocked to AA and to AAA in 2008, probably an ill-advised move that seems to have hurt his development. Rebounded somewhat in 2009 at AA but missed 6 weeks of the season. Finished the year at AAA. Has little speed and only average power. Scouts doubt he will have much in the way of plate discipline, but the numbers in that department were at least a little promising this season. Really needs to duplicate those AA numbers of this past season if he is going to ever put himself on the map as a true prospect again. Still projects as a useful everyday middle infielder at the PEBA level someday, though it's somewhat questionable if he will ever achieve the star status that was projected for him when he was selected with the ninth overall pick in the 2007 draft.
Donald Hannah – Round 2, Pick 9, 33rd overall. SP – L
Soft-tossing southpaw with three pitches, and none of them any fool anybody. Torn labrum ended his season in 2009, and quite possibly his career (not that it was going anywhere anyway). Major second round bust. Displays little in the way of talent and will be 24 next season. Not much chance he ever turns around.
Jon Stuart – Round 3, Pick 9, 57th overall. RF – L
12-28-2007 Released by the Gloucester organization.
12-29-2007 Signed a 1-year minor league contract with the Hermosillo Sols organization.
Oddly released after just one season in the minors. Presently stashed on the Hermosillo reserve roster and rated the #11 prospect in the ABSF. Scouts generally believe Stuart does enough well to someday be a reserve at the PEBA level. Has very good speed and should hit well enough to be at least marginally useful. His development in Mexico over the next several seasons should be interesting. Drafted out of high school and still just 20 years old, it remains a mystery as to why he was released so quickly by the Gloucester organization.
José Pérez – Round 4, Pick 9, 81st overall. RF – R
Considered the #36 prospect in PEBA, Stuart missed the final few months of the season with a fractured foot. His range limits him to a corner outfield spot, but he has good hands and a great arm. Has hit at every level and was beginning to show some of the above average power scouts believed he possessed before being sidelined late in the season. Lacks speed. Just 20 years old and has 3 seasons of pro ball under his belt. Scouts believe he will be a decent hitter with an average eye, slightly above average power, but might strike out a little more than is ideal. He projects as at least a lower tier starting corner outfielder at the PEBA level someday in the not-too-distant future.
Ted Rigsby – Round 5, Pick 9, 105th overall. SP – R
Barely scratches 89 MPH on the radar gun, has a six-pitch repertoire, decent endurance and very little talent. Has yet to impress at any level. 7-18, 4.15 in 37 starts at the single A level over parts of 3 seasons, walking 64 while striking out 75 in 190.2 IP. 5-7, 4.07 in 108.1 IP at the AA level. Will be 24 going into next season and there is nothing to excited about here with Rigsby.
Rob Graham – Round 6, Pick 9, 129th overall. MR – L
Graham has slowly improved each of his 3 seasons at the professional level and had a fine season this past year at AA (5-2 2.81 in 96 IP). Scouts don't believe he will go too much farther, maybe reaching AAA before hitting his ceiling. The 11 home runs allowed in 96 innings have to be cause for concern.
Albert Martínez – Round 7, Pick 9, 153rd overall. MR – L
Southpaw who hits the low 90s on the gun, but has spent 3 seasons at A-ball and really regressed badly this season, going 1-2, 6.20 with a 1.95 WHIP, walking 41 while striking out 40 in 85.2 innings. Despite good size (he's 6'9”) and a low 90s fastball, he just doesn't have any talent and is simply taking up space in the Gloucester organization.
Robbie Thompson – Round 8, Pick 9, 177th overall. MR – R
Drafted out of high school, Thompson has 3 years of pro ball under his belt at the age of 20. Hits 90 MPH on the gun, has a six-pitch arsenal and is an extreme groundball pitcher. His numbers to this point have not stood out, but they have not been entirely terrible either so he is young enough to be kept around to see if a light ever goes on. Most scouts are skeptical that it ever will, and he is generally considered a non-prospect.
Overall – Thornton doesn't appear that he will ever be the star that was hoped for when he was drafted, but he and Pérez should at least contribute at the PEBA level at some point. Hannah is a complete bust, the release of 3rd rd pick Stuart was odd, and the remainder of the draft choices just never had much going for them in the first place.
António Betancourt – Round 1, Pick 1, 1st overall. SP – R
Barely hits 90 MPH on the gun, has a limited 3-pitch arsenal and is a bit weak on the endurance. Has yet to do much at AAA; 7-8, 5.61 in 16 career starts at the level. Will be 24 heading into next season and has done almost nothing to justify his selection with the first overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft. Scouts don't believe he will ever have enough stuff to take on hitters at the PEBA level. He is probably very close to his ceiling as filler at the AAA level. Paint Betancourt a bust.
Alejandro Cantú – Round 2, Pick 1, 25th overall. SS – R
Cantu has hit for some respectable averages in his three seasons at the minor league level, but has no power, no speed, and his plate discipline is lacking. Scouts project his bat as utility infielder quality at best, and he plays decent enough defense that he might someday fill that role at the PEBA level but nothing more. Despite the fact that he might contribute something at the PEBA level, taken in the context that he was a second round pick you would have to look at his limited upside and consider him a bust.
Domingo Briacho – Round 3, Pick 1, 49th overall. SP – L
04-26-2009 Released by the Kalamazoo organization.
05-04-2009 Signed a 0-year minor league contract with the Bakersfield Bears organization.
20-year-old southpaw who hits the low 90s on the gun and has a 5-pitch arsenal. Has decent endurance. His numbers have not been very inspiring and his control has been rather weak to this point. Still just 20 years old so a light could go on, but scouts doubt it will ever happen. Released by the Badgers earlier this season and now plying his trade in the Bakersfield organization.
Jonathan English – Round 4, Pick 1, 73rd overall. RF – R
Has spent three seasons in the low minors and collected just 543 at bats and a .268 average with 5 HR. Has no speed, no power, no plate discipline, and is a certified butcher in the field. Will be 24 going into next season and is far from a prospect.
Steven Holmes – Round 5, Pick 1, 97th overall. MR – R
Big right-hander who possesses good stuff, but scouts doubt he will ever have the movement or control to be much of a success. Hits the low 90s on the gun and has decent enough endurance that he could spot start a game here and there as a swingman. Has spent three seasons in the low minors and put up decent numbers, but scouts doubt he will be able to tackle the higher levels with any amount of success.
Bernardo González – Round 6, Pick 1, 121st overall. C – R
Very good defensive skills behind the plate. Is more likely to be struck by lightning than to ever succeed at any level.
Pablo Flores – Round 7, Pick 1, 145th overall. CF – S
12-01-2008 Released by the Kalamazoo organization.
12-16-2008 Signed a 0-year minor league contract with the Yuma Bulldozers organization.
Flores has shown at least enough ability to maybe be a 5th outfielder or the emergency guy stashed away at AAA for a rainy day, so his release by the Badgers last winter is rather surprising. Decent speed and defense, will hit just enough to be slightly useful in a reserve role, but will have little power and even less plate discipline.
Frank Greer – Round 8, Pick 1, 169th overall. RF – R
Has hit for some decent averages at the minor league level and even has some ability to put the ball in the gaps and leg out some extra bases, but his simply awful plate discipline will prevent him from ever rising out of the low minors and having any degree of success. Has little speed, no power and is barely average with the glove.
Overall – Complete disaster. In a best case scenario, Betancourt someday provides some innings at the PEBA level, but they are not likely to be good ones. And it's all downhill from there. The 2007 Kalamazoo Badgers draft was such a disaster that they should have been applying to FEMA for emergency federal relief.