THE DANCE CARD - Community Blog of the Toyama Wind Dancers

[roncollins]

It doesn't help that Palm Springs just signed Austin McKee, who we were after, too.

[roncollins]

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First Wave of Roster Expansion Adds Three New Faces


September 1, 2023: Toyama -- Toyama GM Ron Collins was in complaining mode at the team's latest press conference. "One drawback to so many of the organization's teams being in the post season," he said, "is that it can slow the flow of players coming to the big club in September."

Yeah, we thought, right. Play us a dirge.

Regardless, Collins announced that three pitchers would be joining the squad immediately--two are familiar faces, the third is a name that's been bouncing around the organization for over a year.

The first name is François Gosselin. The 23-year-old right hander came to the club last year as a Rule 5 addition from West Virginia. His 2022 season with the big club was full of bright spots, but it was clear he needed more seasoning, which he got with a full season in Yamauchi. 2023 saw him finish at 10-7, with a nice 3.29 ERA in 175 innings.

"We had him on a limit of 95 pitches, which we'll keep him on," Collins said. Gosselin will likely start either the second or third game of the Niihama-shi series.

This move will send veteran starter Tsuyohi Nishiyama to the bullpen.

The second familiar name is Bill Courtney, the fire balling left hander who dominated the league for 20 innings before suffering shoulder inflammation. Courtney was set to throw a rehab assignment in Yamauchi, but the club decided now's the time. "Bill is twenty-six now," Collins said. "He knows how to get himself ready."

There is still some discussion inside the organization about using Courtney in a starting role, though one suggests that might only occur in the case of, say, a bout with Shin Seiki.

The third new face is another left-handed bullpen guy, Éric Huot. Huot is a portly portsider from Canada who came to the club during last year's deep-dive into the Mexican league's top prospect list. Huot's got a fancy curve ball and a sneaky enough fastball that he used to throw a 2.80 ERA in 90 AAA innings.

At 23, the club hopes to see him competing for a spot in the pen next year.

"To say we're happy with our work last year is an understatement," Collins said. "Ths staff did a huge job."

Courtney also came from Mexico in that haul, as did starting third baseman Iván Juárez, and 26-year-old outfielder Willie Edmonds. It says a lot about a group when they can go out and get four guys who can play a big part in a post-season quality team. And that's before we get to Morales, Garcia, or Gómez."

"Morales" is, of course, Héctor Morales--the young third baseman who has hit 26 homers in 123 games at two levels this year. "Garcia" is Reynaldo Garcia, the 23-year-old catcher who has done nothing buth it a ton everywhere he's been. And "Gómez" is Carlos Gómez, a 25-year-old starter who some scouts suggest will be better served to throw out of the pen in the big leagues, but who has been steadily productive since joining the squad.

All three of these players may be making appearances in Toyama next week after the Yamauchi season ends, and all three were also part of the Mexican League blitz. Several other names have been floated as possible late-season additions, so we'll see what happens when the time comes.

[roncollins]

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The Power of the Japanese Medical System at Work?

September 1, 2023: Toyama -- With a little downtime here in the SL, we at the Dance Card took a look at injury history of the top top five teams by record in the league (Aurora, Shin Seiki, Bakersfield, Crystal Lake, and [humbly] our own Toyama Wind Dancers]). With 25-30 games left in the season, there’s still plenty of time for the injury bell to ring up new victims, but we wanted to see which of these teams have fared best.

We scanned through reams of medical documents (all the HTML injury pages). We removed any injury that caused the player to miss anything 2 weeks or less, with the exception of chronic injuries—meaning that we included 1-2 week injuries if the player was also later injured, or if the injury notation was for a set-back. We also removed spring training injuries unless they spilled into the regular season.

Here’s what we got:

Code: Select all

Team	Inj	Wks	Wks/In
SSeiki	7	45	6.4
Toyama	10	59	5.9
Aurora	13	149	11.5
CrLake	13	81	6.2
Bakfld	12	106	8.8

It is, perhaps, interesting that the two least injured teams come from Japan, where team fitness and daily calisthenics are the order of the day. Or is it the trainers here are just better? Or both?

Here’s a Team-by-Team Discussion:

Aurora – Just ouch. Thirteen major injury events, 149 weeks lost. The loss of Jesus Negrete and Gunner MacGruder alone would be enough to destroy most any other team in the league. Add in Nick Giles (earlier in the year), River Pope, Wilson Mercado, and now Mike Hale, and any sane person would expect to see Aurora at the bottom of the pack. And, yet, somehow the Borealis still has the best record in baseball.

Shin Seiki – A majority of Shin Seiki’s injuries happened earlier in the year, with five occurring prior to mid-May. They have been the least injured, and in the middle of the severity column. The two that happened afterward, however, are big ones (the loss of SP Connor Hurst and CF Nobuo Arai are major impacts).

Crystal Lake – John Shoemaker is four of their injuries (12 weeks cumulative). Juan Hernandez (5 weeks) and Dave Jones (19 weeks) represent four others. Second baseman Jim Klein appears to be out for the year. Jones should make it back. The S’Gnats have generally not suffered particularly long healing times.

Bakersfield – The Bears have lost four pitchers for what is likely the year (starters Seon-chin Pak, Bu-wei Dan, and Todd Burns … and closed Jorge Fiero). Third baseman Tommy Stephens will be back for the post season. In all, it seems that the Bears injuries are either “short” (less than 4 weeks in duration) or “out.”

Toyama – Walking Medical Emergency John Martin lost 12 weeks to four separate injuries, and the losses of Ivan Rosa (7 weeks) and Jose Escobido (3 months) have hurt an offense that generally struggles to score runs anyway. The silver lining is that all these players will theoretically be back in time for any post season activities if they occur. The team's severity of injury is the lowest of the five, though we've lost a few more guys than SS.

Here are the injuries that made my list:

Shin Seiki
Tuesday, August 29th, 2023
CF Nobuo Arai was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: separated shoulder. He's expected to miss about 6 weeks.
Wednesday, July 26th, 2023
SP Conner Hurst was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: ulnar nerve irritation. He's expected to miss about 3-4 months.
Saturday, May 13th, 2023
LF Benton Hawkins was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: sprained thumb. He's expected to miss about 3-4 weeks.
Monday, April 24th, 2023
RP Carlos Rivera was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: torn meniscus (knee). He's expected to miss about 2 months.
Wednesday, April 19th, 2023
3B Richard Kelly was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: torn thumb ligament. He's expected to miss about 4 weeks.
Saturday, April 1st, 2023
Carlos Galván has suffered a setback in his recovery. He is not expected to recover for another 2 weeks.
Tuesday, March 14th, 2023
C Carlos Galván was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: sprained ankle. He's expected to miss about 4-5 weeks.


Toyama
Tuesday, August 22nd, 2023
2B José Escobido was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: plantar fascitis. He's expected to miss about 6-7 weeks.
Wednesday, August 9th, 2023
CF John Martin was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained groin. He's expected to miss about 5 weeks.
Wednesday, August 2nd, 2023
RF Iván Rosa was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained abdominal muscle. He's expected to miss about 6-7 weeks.
Friday, June 23rd, 2023
2B José Escobido was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: torn meniscus (knee). He's expected to miss about 6 weeks.
Friday, May 19th, 2023
CF Noriyuki Matsui was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: rotator cuff strain. He's expected to miss about 6-7 weeks.
Sunday, May 14th, 2023
CF John Martin was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: shoulder tendinitis. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks.
Monday, May 8th, 2023
RP Bill Courtney was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: shoulder inflammation. He's expected to miss about 4 months.
Friday, April 28th, 2023
CF John Martin was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: bruised ankle. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 1-2 weeks.
Wednesday, April 26th, 2023
1B Hirotsugu Tenno was injured being hit by a pitch. The Diagnosis: fractured thumb. He's expected to miss about 4 weeks.
Monday, April 24th, 2023
CF John Martin was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained rib cage muscle. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 1-2 weeks.


Aurora
Wednesday, August 30th, 2023
CF Mike Hale was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: sprained ankle. He's expected to miss about 5 weeks.
Friday, August 25th, 2023
LF River Pope was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: quadriceps strain. He's expected to miss about 5 weeks.
Tuesday, August 22nd, 2023
2B Gabriel McIntyre was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: strained oblique. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks.
Wednesday, August 16th, 2023
Wilson Mercado has suffered a setback in his recovery. He is not expected to recover for another 3-4 weeks.
Tuesday, August 8th, 2023
C Jesús Negrete was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: torn labrum (Shoulder). He's expected to miss about 9 months.
Thursday, August 3rd, 2023
SP Gunner MacGruder was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: torn UCL (Tommy John surgery). He's expected to miss about 14 months.
Wednesday, July 26th, 2023
LF River Pope was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: intercostal strain. He's expected to miss about 2 weeks.
LF Wilson Mercado was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: strained hamstring. He's expected to miss about 5-6 weeks.
Wednesday, May 24th, 2023
C Jesús Negrete was injured being hit by a pitch. The Diagnosis: fractured wrist. He's expected to miss about 6 weeks.
Sunday, April 16th, 2023
Nick Giles has suffered a setback in his recovery. He is not expected to recover for another 4-5 weeks.
Friday, April 14th, 2023
Nick Giles has suffered a setback in his recovery. He is not expected to recover for another 3 weeks.
Tuesday, March 21st, 2023
SS Nick Giles was injured being hit by a pitch. The Diagnosis: fractured thumb. He's expected to miss about 5-6 weeks.
Wednesday, March 15th, 2023
RP Christian Murdoch was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: ulnar nerve irritation. He's expected to miss about 3 months.


Crystal Lake
Monday, August 7th, 2023
2B John Shoemaker was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: hip strain. He's expected to miss about 5-6 weeks.
Monday, July 31st, 2023
Jerry Long has suffered a setback in his recovery. He is not expected to recover for another 1-2 weeks.
Monday, July 3rd, 2023
SS Juan Hernández was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: intercostal strain. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks.
Monday, June 26th, 2023
RF Jerry Long was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: torn meniscus (knee). He's expected to miss about 6 weeks.
Tuesday, June 13th, 2023
2B Jim Klein was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: broken hand. He's expected to miss about 3-4 months.
Sunday, June 4th, 2023
LF Liam Meyer was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: strained hamstring. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks.
3B Henry Ellacott was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: fractured thumb. He's expected to miss about 3-4 weeks.
Wednesday, May 31st, 2023
RF Jerry Long was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: bruised ribs. He's expected to miss about 2 weeks.
SS Juan Hernández was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: sprained finger. He's expected to miss about 2 weeks.
Friday, May 26th, 2023
RF Jerry Long was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: back stiffness. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 weeks.
Thursday, May 25th, 2023
SP Dave Jones was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: shoulder inflammation. He's expected to miss about 4 months.
Friday, April 28th, 2023
SP Dave Jones was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: sprained ankle. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks.
Wednesday, March 29th, 2023
C Justin Hill was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: hip strain. He's expected to miss about 5 months.


Bakersfield
Monday, August 28th, 2023  ▾
3B Tommy Stephens was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: chronic back soreness. He's expected to miss about 4 weeks.
Saturday, August 19th, 2023
SP Seon-chin Pak was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: ruptured tendon (finger). He's expected to miss about 3-4 months.
Sunday, August 13th, 2023
RF Stephen Hooper was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: oblique strain. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks.
Saturday, August 5th, 2023
SP Bu-wei Dan was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: acute elbow soreness. He's expected to miss about 3 months.
Wednesday, August 2nd, 2023
RF Stephen Hooper was injured being hit by a pitch. The Diagnosis: knee contusion. He's expected to miss about one week.
Monday, July 24th, 2023
SP Todd Burns was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: partially torn labrum. He's expected to miss about 3 months.
Sunday, July 16th, 2023
2B Rafael Suárez was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: fractured thumb. He's expected to miss about 4 weeks.
Friday, June 23rd, 2023
RF Gilbert Murray was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: shoulder soreness. He's expected to miss about 3-4 weeks.
Tuesday, June 20th, 2023
CL Jorge Fierro was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: torn labrum (Shoulder). He's expected to miss about 9-10 months.
Wednesday, June 7th, 2023
LF Arthur Collins was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: fractured foot. He's expected to miss about 2-3 weeks.
Tuesday, April 11th, 2023
RF Stephen Hooper was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: latissimus dorsi strain. He's expected to miss about 4 weeks.
Monday, March 27th, 2023
3B Tommy Stephens was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: hamstring strain. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks.

[Lions]

One of the reasons we traded John Martin back in the day was his propensity to hit the DL.

You can find more info about how much time players have actually been on the DL here. It's unfortunately that we have to scroll through the HTML to get more detail than this, though.

I will add that having the same player injured multiple times is typically easier to deal with than the same number of injuries spread out across multiple players. With the one guy, you only have to find one replacement.

[roncollins]

One of the reasons we traded John Martin back in the day was his propensity to hit the DL.

Yeah. We assumed we were only getting 60% of a player in CF, but we had Sato in CF, who gets hurt just as often. So we figured we could just swap them in and out of the DL. Sato has been moderately healthy this season, though. Knock on wood.

[Denny]

Great piece! But Palm Springs have an injury to note as well: hurt fee-fees at being left out of the article.

Fortunately the author was kind enough to include his methodology, so let me work out the score for the Codgers thus far in 2023.

Palm Springs
Sunday, August 27th, 2023
3B Lonnie Dixon was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: chronic back soreness. He's expected to miss about 5 weeks.
Wednesday, August 9th, 2023
RF Felipe Días was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained oblique. He's expected to miss about 6-7 weeks.
Wednesday, August 2nd, 2023
1B Dave Petersen was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: torn ankle ligaments. He's expected to miss about 5 weeks.
Sunday, June 4th, 2023
RF Felipe Días was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: chronic back soreness. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks.
Tuesday, May 30th, 2023
SS Royce Raines was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: pinched nerve (neck). He's expected to miss about 3 weeks.
Wednesday, April 12th, 2023
LF Yoritomo Masuda was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: partially torn labrum. He's expected to miss about 6 weeks.

Yielding a score of

Code: Select all

Team   Inj   Wks   Wks/In
PS      6     29     4.8

Thus the men in salmon have enjoyed fewer injuries, for less time, than any of the top five leaders. I credit Palm Springs' healthful climate

Having said that, on the downside, virtually every one of those injuries has been to one of our best hitters. Clearly, as noted with Aurora above, some injuries are more injurious to the team than others. It would be interesting to try to cross reference this injury list with some sort of player value to capture that.

[Borealis]

Well, if you simply use WAR, that's a loss of 15.4 in Gunner, Negrete, Pope and Hale - alone... At least Hale and Pope will hopefully return for the playoffs - negretes back next year and Gunner is lost for all of 2024...

[roncollins]

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Wind Dancers to Wear Throw Backs


September 12, 2023 – The Toyama Wind Dancers have announced that the team will be wearing their iconic yellow, red, and pink uniforms for their home game against Crystal Lake on Friday Night, September 22. The uniforms were often chided as being garish even at the time and even by the standards of Japanese baseball, but were also a major part of the brand when the team was known as the Lupin Cliff Hangers.

“Our team is proud of its heritage,” said a spokesmodel, who was wearing one of the jersey’s in question as she addressed the press conference. “That was one of the reasons we took the name of our city, and why we have dedicated this season to celebrate the achievements of the last team to win a legitimate Neo-Tokyo Cup. It was why we include the JK patch and the Lupin logo on our sleeves today.”

League pundits suggest the ploy is also being made to ensure a healthy gate at the game, which given the club’s nosedive in the recent past has all the appearances of being a particularly important one.

[roncollins]

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Turnstiles Spin At Record Pace


September 15, 2023 – It’s been a whirlwind season for the Toyama Wind Dancers, one that started with the idea of completely rebranding the team from the ground up, continued with the arrival of several new faces, including a fresh-faced manager, and has seen the team’s performance ride waves of the good and the bad. Through it all the baseball fans of Toyama have stayed true.

The club announced today that sometime early tomorrow afternoon, the 3,490,917th fan would pass through the turnstiles, and that this event would represent a new record for attendance at the Castle, surpassing the total registered in 2020, which was the team’s dash to the Neo-Tokyo Cup.

“We’re very pleased,” said GM Ron Collins. “We’ve been working on the stadium to make it a much happier place for the past several years, and working on the product on the field, too. We’re glad it’s paying off for our fans.”

The leader of the highest profile Toyama fan club (TBF = Toyama Baseball Fans) was dismissive of the feat. “We don’t count out numbers, we count our decibels,” Okai “Sergeant” Tsumata noted in a blog post. “Just win, Toyama. Just win.”

At this rate, the team expects to hit a final tally of just under 3.9 million fans for the year, still mostly like third best in the SL this year (behind Shin Seiki and Aurora). Amsterdam, Kentucky, and Florida in the IL will probably also surpass the Wind Dancers.

[roncollins]

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Stars Return From DL
Toyama Takes Two of Three From Bakersfield

September 15, 2023 – After suffering a devastating three-game sweep at the hands of the Yuma Bulldozers, and falling into the chokehold of a baseball depression so deep that some insiders were wondering if this spelled the end of the entire Toyama rebuild, the ball club turned its fans on their ears with two critical victories.

The opponent, the Bakersfield Bears, are a solid baseball team, and are indeed one of the Wind Dancer’s primary combatants for a wild card slot. The games were at the Bear’s park. Losses would be crippling. The only real good news was that injured outfielders Ivan Rosa (strained abdominal) and John Martin (strained groin) were finally healthy, and would return.


GAME 1: Longball Wins the Day

Toyama is not known as a team that uses the home run to great effect. It ranks 13th of the 16 SL teams in homers. But as Shinobu Takeuchi took the mound, the wind was up and baseball itself rarely cares about such silly things as statistics. He would allow three homers and four runs in his eight innings of work, but would come away with a hard-fought win as Shiro Adachi homered early, a resurgent Hirotsugu Tenno went deep twice, and then the late inning heroics were supplied by Clifford Green to the tune of a 420 foot blast in the 9th inning.

“I hit it good,” Green said. “So I was figuring it was gone on a day like today.”

His teammates game him the silent treatment when he returned to the bench, then burst out in hugs.

“I loved it,” he said.

Green has been a critical pick-up for the club, having hit 10 home runs now, several of them late in critical games. He’s hitting .316/.361/.463. His contract is up for arbitration this year. “I would love to come back,” he said. “The fans here are literally the greatest.”

Final score, Toyama 5, Bakersfileld 4 (Win, Takeuchi – Save, Cruz [46])


GAME 2: Sato and Adachi Reclaim the Magic

The transition to global baseball has not been particularly kind to Shiro Adachi and Sadatake Sato. Adachi has struggled to hit major league pitching, and his glove has been only mid-pack. Sato has suffered through so many injuries that his presence is a ghost of the image it was as a dashing and daring younger man. But both are having resurgent seasons, and for an evening, these two faces of the Japanese franchise put on a display that culminated in a huge 7th-inning that featured Sato drilling a 3-2 fastball deep into the right field corner for two runs, and Adachi following him up with a home run to right center.

The performance put the team up 8-3, and they would ever look back.

“That’s what they do,” said Tadamasa Hashimoto, the starter who was the benefactor after striking out 5 men in 6 innings to notch his 13th win. “I’m proud for them. It makes me happy to see the two guys doing their thing again. It makes me happy to see them happy.”

This game also saw the debut of heralded rookie Hector Morales at first base. With the loss of Roberto Cisneros for the year, the Wind Dancers needed someone who could play first base and hit from the right side. Morales went 1-3 on the day, including a single in his first major league at bat.

Final Score: Toyama 8, Bakersfield 4 (Win Hashimoto – Save, Cruz [47])


GAME 3: Markus Hancock Plays Markus Hancock


Desperate for a guy who can start games, the Wind Dancers turned to lefty Bill Courtney. Courtney responded with brilliance, allowing just one run in five innings before yielding to Isei Makino and Davis Sutherland, who both blanked the Bears.

Didn’t matter.

It is true that Markus Hancock is “struggling” this year—showing signs of his 34 years. He’s only 11-11 this year, and his 3.27 ERA is a full run higher than he was throwing in his prime (and, admittedly, has to be deeply adjusted for the ballpark he plays in). He’s a different pitcher now. Where he once struck out 10 guys a game, and threw to 50% fly balls, he’s going to strike out only maybe 7, and he’s pitching to contact that will see two thirds of the balls hit stay on the ground.

Whatever.

For 8 and a third inning tonight, Markus Hancock spun a gem. Eight strikeouts. One walk. Five hits. Big Fat Goose Egg on the scoreboard.

“It’s a privilege to try to swing the bat against him,” said Hirotsugu Tenno, who managed one of the Toyama hits. “He’s a hero of mine, really.”

Final Score: Bakersfield 1, Toyama 0 (Win Baseball)

[roncollins]

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Escobido Rejoins Team
Concussion Puts Cisneros Out

September 15, 2023 – Injured second baseman Jose Escobido is still sidelined, but he’s been authorized to travel with the club while he finishes his convalescence. Toyama went so far as to activate him off the DL and put him on the expanded roster.

“It’s more a symbolic thing,” said GM Ron Collins as he walked to a fan-outreach luncheon “We wanted everyone to know that Jose is an important part of this team. Not just his contribution on the field, but that his mere presence around the guys makes a huge difference.”

On the flipside, team doctors say that Roberto Cisneros will not play baseball again this year as he recovers from a concussion he received during a collision at second base while the team was in Yuma.

“That’s the way of the game,” Collins added. “It’s a physical event, and with 162 games it wears teams down. That’s why depth is so important. A big team like Aurora or Shin Seiki can afford to lose their guys and still stay at the top of the charts because they have back-ups they can plug in and just keep going. When we lose a guy like Jose, there’s no one we have who can come close. Same for Roberto.”

The team has been using prospect Yujiro Endo in the middle infield in Escobido’s stay, and Endo has done quite well—especially with the glove. Yet, he’s clearly not of the same impact of Escobido. Another prospect, Hector Morales, will fill Cisnero’s shoes. It will be his first action at the PEBA level, and so represents a true wild card.

[roncollins]

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Cruz on Edge of Record Setting Season?

September 17, 2023 – To look at Raul Cruz as he sits in the bullpen and spits sunflower seeds, one would not think that you were watching something legendary. He’s sprawled on the green painted bench, his easy wing span laying out over the seat back. His cap with the big red T is perched on his head and he’s joking with Chad Miller, another of Toyama’s bullpen guys, and the guy who closed all of last year.

Perhaps you know the story—that Cruz signed a $40M guaranteed deal before the season started, a deal that includes another $15M for a fourth season if the upper brass wants it. Perhaps you know that this is what is considered a Big Danged Deal when you live in Toyama, a town on the northern coast of Japan, where the wind can blow a gale but were today it’s sunny and bright and Raul Cruz is telling jokes to Chad Miller. The deal made him the 5th highest closer in the league this year, but projects him over time to be either #1 or #2, depending on how David Lopez’s free agency goes. No pressure, right?

The Palm Springs Codgers are in town. It’s before the game. It’s unlikely that Cruz will appear in this game because has pitched in the last two games, both tight, and both saved by Cruz. Which, of course, is what he’s being paid that kind of change to do. Save games.

To look at him, though, you would not know that Raul Cruz sits at 49 saves with 14 games left to play. Five other pitches have saved 49 games in a season. Only three others have saved more: They are:

Bryant Burris: 54 (Aurora)
Cary Bond: 52 (New Jersey)
Guonçalle Malatestiano: 50 (Charleston)

Will this guy who’s spitting sunflower seeds become the new save king? The magic eight ball is unclear right now. But Raul Cruz doesn’t care right now. Right now, the sun is shining and a game is getting ready to start. And, yeah, he’s got a joke to tell you.

[roncollins]

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Dancers Sweep Codgers
Post Season Seems Suddenly Possible


September 17, 2023 – A week ago, Toyama Wind Dancer fans were debating whether the team was dead. New manager Hirotada Suzuki was wilting in the heat of a playoff run, and the team was crashing—losing six of nine games in September, including an embarrassing run of 5 losses to Yuma and Niihama-shi in which the offense scored a total of three runs.

Worse, two of the club’s biggest thorns were on the schedule, three games at Bakersfield, then a jet plane home for three with Palm Springs.

It appeared the goose was cooked.

But baseball is a strange thing, and when the club managed to scratch a pair of games from the claws of the Bears, fans got their eye brows to raising and the Codger series became huge. Of course, we know the deal now. Three games, three wins.

Mega.


GAME 1 saw the beleaguered Clayton Lewis take matters into his own hands. He’s 9-13, not the kind of record that the club’s fans were thinking of when they plopped down their cash. And yet … the ERA (3.84) is good. The FIP- (95) is at least okay. The problem, you see, is that Lewis is getting about 1.9 runs of support a game. That’s right, Clayton Lewis has drawn the short straw this year, it seems.

But in the first Codger game, Lewis allowed only a third-inning double and a walk as he went eight scoreless innings and walked away with a 3-0 win that was powered by a Hirotsugu Tenno homer and a run-scoring triple by newcomer Yujiro Endo.

GAME 2 saw the team stake Akira Watanabe to a 4-0 lead, which he then protected for 8 innings. Raul Cruz stepped in to pick up the save, though he gave a run that made the final score 4-3. It was a classic work-a-day Toyama win. Ivan Juarez doubled in a pair after a single/FC/BB put them on. An inning later Clifford Green walked, Willie Edmonds tripled, and then scored on a wild pitch. Three hits, four runs. No individual hero—just all the parts working together, something for which perhaps fresh-faced manager Suzuki may need to get some credit for.

GAME 3 was more of the same. Starter Shinobu Takeuchi pitched well enough, but left in the sixth behind 3-2. He was saved a half inning later when the splendid Sadatake Sato’s resurgent season rose its head again in the form of a ringing double that plated John Martin with the tying run. An inning later, team captain Shiro Adachi (starting at second base now in place of Jose Escobido), drove a grounder past the shortstop that plated the two runs that eventually provided the margin. Three relievers closed the deal, finishing in Yong’s first save of the year.


So, the question remains: can the Toyama Wind Dancers overcome this slump they ran into and hold onto their Wild Card ticket to the post season?

This sweep means the team is now five games up on Palm Springs with 13 to play. Certainly it is possible to collapse still, but it will take a big one. The schedule is not particularly favorable, nor is it stacked against the team. Three games with divisional Niihama-shi and Okinawa, three with powerhouse Crystal Lake, and a final four game tilt with a not insubstantial Kalamzoo squad. Crystal Lake and Okinawa at home. The others on the road.

It seems the whole of the front office is holding their collective breaths. No one associated with the team will say anything as far as projecting success. But fans are another thing. Fans want. Fans expect.

[roncollins]

_*_*_ THE DANCE CARD _*_*_
A Blog of the Toyama Wind Dancers

Resurgent Heroes Lead Wind Dancer Charge

September 18, 2023: Toyama – When the real League of the Rising Sun merged with the PEBA, the world wondered how the best Japanese players would perform. Would they hold their own, would they crash and burn against “real” pitching or “real” hitters. Among the more mercurial of the players being discussed were the deeply introverted, but beautifully gifted center fielder Sadatake Sato, and the outwardly confident, but respectful team leader in shortstop Shiro Adachi.

Sato was a given, a gifted athlete who could hit from both sides of the plate. He was a perennial All-Star—a 20/20 guy who got on base and played a good center field. A five tooler. He would be fine. But Adachi? Sure, his glove work should translate, they said. But could he do the work with the bat that would be enough to make an impact?

These were two of the stalwarts of the organization that took home the last Neo-Tokyo Cup in 2020.

No one predicted the implosion of 2021.

The numbers. Well. The numbers are the numbers:

Adachi was bad. Bad as in .227/.285/.352, a 75 OPS+ (a 60-point drop in raw numbers) and a WAR of 1.5 (down somewhere between 1 and 3 wins above replacement). And that was boosted by a move to second base. Fans mourned. But, let’s face it, Sato was worse. In a season that saw the superstar remain mostly healthy, Sato hit his 20 homers … but the rest of the numbers were terrible: .215/.264/.369, 73 OPS+, 0 WAR. Seriously. Zero WAR. In 2021 Sadatake Sato was a replacement level player.

2022 was really not much better for either. Both were in and out of the lineup. Sato was savaged by injuries, and “rebounded” to a .720 OPS. The team’s front office was strangely quiet about his contract, which has a team option after 2023, but they went out in the off-season and signed slick fielding John Martin to roam center field. Adachi, still the team captain, dropped to .5 WAR, and the team outwardly was looking for alternatives at short stop.

Rumors were strong that the Wind Dancers were looking for new faces of the franchise.

Then comes 2023. Toyama signs a bunch of names. They make a big play. They win games, and even for a brief moment looked like they might compete for the Rising Sun Division.

Adachi thrived in his “back-up/utility” role well enough that when the Taro Kuono experiment failed, he stepped back into the short stop role and led the team. His glove as second base has been huge with Jose Escobido’s loss, and his 87 OPS+ has been at least useful to the tune of 9 homers and 62 RBI in his 439 AB to date. He’s on track for almost 2.0 WAR, which would be a godsend.

Then there’s Sato.

What can you say about Sadatake Sato. He’s 31-years-old now, and when he comes to the plate in 2023, the fans go crazy. After two seasons of horrific moments, of injury, of failure that has stripped the already quiet man down to his roots, Sadatake Sato is throwing down a 17 HR/59 RBI, .307/.332/.521 season in 400 AB that is on pace for a 3.0 WAR kind of tag. He’s back in the swing, you know? He’s making it happen. He’s making the team face that $9M option with a fresh outlook.

The future for these two stars remains unclear, to be honest. Both could still be elsewhere next season. But the bottom line today is that the ball club is perched on the edge of playing in the post season for the first time in their PEBA history. It would be a trip that these two would savor as much as any two people are capable of savoring.

[roncollins]

_*_*_ THE DANCE CARD _*_*_
A Blog of the Toyama Wind Dancers

Watanabe Has Arrived

Watanabe Makes His Golden Arm Case

September, 2023 -- Akira Watanabe has had his moments of adversity and his moments of blazing fame, but when it comes down to it you can make a case that he’s always toiled in obscurity. When people think of the top pitchers in the game, you don’t go immediately to the name Akira Watanabe—it was the case back in the early days of the LRS, and it’s the case today. He’s under-rated. Under-valued. People just don’t know who he is.

So who is he, his Akira Watanabe, and why should we care?

He’s a guy who just won his 20th game of the year, a number matched only by Aurora’s Michael Provost. Yes, Provost. You know--that guy.

Akira Watanabe’s won as many as Provost and lost fewer. Watanabe 20-5, Provost 20-6. And his ERA is 2.70 against Provost’s 2.66—but done in a ballpark that doesn’t help him like Aurora’s does. His FIP- is 86 this year, very good. Not quite as good as Provost’s 72, but again, ballpark. Aurora’s ballpark is a place where home runs are almost illegal, and where RHB go to die. The Castle is, shall we say, hitter friendly. As is much of the Rising Sun division.

His 20 wins has propelled his team into the post season for the first time since the squad arrived in the global world of the PEBA. He is 43-35 since coming to the PEBA, but that is polluted by an injury-plagued 2021.

He was 29-24 in the LRS, starting his career with a somewhat sub-standard club, but finishing the LRS with a season that included an early-season No Hitter and a sensationally gutty performance to win the last Neo-Tokyo Cup ever. The combination of LRS and PEBA numbers lists him, then and 72-59, with half of his career played for sub-standard teams.

Want more data that says how good he’s been throughout his career? He’s a man whose FIP- has never been north of 90 (with the aforementioned exception.

In short, Akira Watanabe has been a spectacular pitcher since he was 22, and now he’s in his prime and he’s 20-5. People are finally whispering the term “Golden Arm” around him, as in “There goes the next SL Golden Arm Winner.”

“I don’t know about that,” he says. “Michael Provost is Michael Provost. And don’t forget Yaka. He’s real good.”

There are other candidates, of course.

“Yaka” is Shin Seiki’s brilliant Yakamochi Suitani, who is 18-7, 2.46, and was the SL Pitcher of the Month three times (Watanabe was selected once to date, though he’s been brilliant in September). Crystal Lake’s Manuel Corona is 18-7, 3.38. The second half of Aurora’s arm-senal, Randy, Tugboat Smith is 18-6, 2.65.

Honestly, any of the five could win it. But 20 wins is a bit of a magic number. It lifts the names Provost and Watanabe to the top of the pack. It becomes theirs to lose, perhaps.

We are, of course, biased. We know what way we’re voting.

But regardless of what happens, we’re happy that this is the season that the PEBA world has learned just who Akira Watanabe is.