A world without work

[Matt]

I listened to an interview with the author of this article on NPR, and after listening had to go find and read the article.

A World Without Work


I find the subject fascinating in many ways, and it is something I have given much thought to over the years as I have watched the changes occur in the workforce. Some jobs that existed when I was young no longer exist at all. My mother worked in a secretarial pool in Memphis in the early 70's. Those no longer exist. Remember telephone operators? If your more than 15 years younger than myself, probably not. There are many more examples.

What has given me a renewed interest in the topic is self-driving cars, and....self-driving trucks. Business Insider recently did a piece on the self driving trucks, and if their forecasts and timelines are anywhere near accurate, I will be retiring right about the time self-driving trucks take over the industry, wiping out millions of truck driver positions. I've even begun to think of myself as 'the last truck driver'.

Where I find the subject very interesting is in that, if these forecasts for work in general are correct, there is almost inevitably going to be great social upheaval. An even more interesting suggestion came up in the interview on NPR, and that is the possibility of population decline. In other words, of people becoming obsolete. At first, this seemed shocking, but the more I thought about what the future could hold, the more plausible this scenario sounds.

I would be curious as to others thoughts on the subject.

[roncollins]

Interesting article.

I have spent a lot of time thinking about this because I wrote the first draft of a novel that is set in a post-work environment. For a person entrenched in the capitalistic mindset of the US, it's a mind-bending thought experiment. I think you're totally right that the transition into it would bring about major social upheavals, and perhaps (almost certainly?) a flurry of senseless wars as those who feel like they are losing something valuable try valiantly to hold onto it. People are pretty much always our own worst enemy.

Once things stabilize, though, the situation becomes even more interesting.

The end of work essentially means the end of money. The end of money probably means the end of capitalism as the primary driver of individual progress. So people will fill it with something else--and that something else _could_ be remarkable, especially since all "work" is automated and done for you. It's only then maybe that our view of what freedom means will get truly tested. "What will you do if you're actually free to spend 24 hours a day doing whatever you want?" is a question that almost zero people in the history of the world have ever been able to actually experience.

That said, as that post-work group postulates, there many excellent results that are possible.

Aside: I assume everyone here knows that Star Trek is set in a world where money has become obsolete.

[Evas]

This is a subject near and dear to my heart. I deal with a fair amount of automation. The net effect of it has been to radically reduce the need for people to do the work and to greatly reduce the skills needed by most of the workers. In the end this is a plus for the economy as it reduces costs of the goods made and keeps their manufacturing in the US. Much better for the economy to have an automated assembly in the US than a manual one in another lower cost country.

Less scarcity means baseline living standards will go up significantly. Despite incomes being stagnant, living standards have sky rocketed over the past 30 years. No one goes hungry in the US now, not real starvation. Most people have smart phones. Google and email are free. Rich people couldn't buy that sort of thing with any amount of money 20 years ago. Now everyone has it.

I don't think it mean the end of money or capitalism either. Money is how we determine how scarce resources are allocated. There will continue to be scarcity in the world, just in less areas. I suspect that means pay will be skyrocketing for a few groups while it goes down for others. Sports are a perfect example. They are one of the very few broadcasting events that demands a live audience that will sit in front of their TV/screen at a given time. That is a very scarce commodity. As a result the cost of broadcast rights have exploded. I am sure pay has gone down for other TV shows. But now there are more of them and entirely new avenues for shows to get made (Yahoo, Netflix, Amazon). I expect similar things to happen, at much lower dollar levels, in other areas of the economy.

Same thing goes for capitalism. There should always be private ownership and economic competition in free and fair markets. That is what capitalism is supposed to be, and largely is. The markets that are being contested could change, but there will continue to be economic competition in the foreseeable future.

I would not be surprised to see populations decline though. Just look at Japan.

[roncollins]

The question of whether money remains viable in a world without work is an interesting one to think about.

In the sports analogy, players play for big money because people who work pay big money to watch (they pay through both gate and by buying products that advertisers pitch in commercials). If people do not need to work (or cannot), then how many will pay to watch the players play (either at the gate or by buying advertised products)? If they don't pay, who will play?

In a post-work environment, I think the more interesting direction to look at the question from is on the consumer side. In a world without work (i.e. without income), how does one go about acquiring things we consume? Who makes it? How is it ordered by the consumer? How is it shipped? If I'm sitting in Indiana and I want a banana, how does the world ensure that I get it...and who profits from that. In a true post-work world of 100% automation, the answers to these questions are remarkably interesting.

[roncollins]

I would not be surprised to see populations decline though. Just look at Japan.

Population/birth rates decline everywhere as education and economic growth take hold. So, yes, I would fully expect population to decline--which is probably not a bad thing overall.

[Bill]

This is an interesting topic. I'm not so sold on the idea that work and money will become obsolete. I think it will evolve, much like those 700,000 ATT workers from the 60s became something else. I tend to think the issue will be population growth will continue unchecked. In that case, yes there will not be enough jobs for everyone, but I guess I think of it as having too many people rather than efficiency declining the number of jobs.

[Leones]

Money will probably be around for a long time in some form. Humans have always valued things. The more immediate issue in my mind is what happens at the critical point where so much labor has been automated that there isn't enough 'consumer capital' to drive growth? Our present economic-political system is unable to cope with that. A major change must occur it woulds seem. If history is any indicator it will probably be violent.

[roncollins]

There is always some kind of a market, even if currency does not exist. One question then is: "What is money in a world without work-based income?" Or: "If money continues to exist, where does it come from? Who backs it up? Why do they do that?" Or: "If only 5% of people have income-generating jobs, who are those 5%, and what does their income get them that others don't get?"

Other places my brain goes:

How would this affect access to basic resources (food and water and high quality shelter)?
Where would growth of science come from?
What would education become?
How would religions change?

All that thinking is making me itch to get back to that story. :)

[roncollins]

Just imagine PEBA with the ability to focus on it 16 hours a day rather than the normal 8. :)

[Bill]

I think I might have LESS time to focus on it if I wasn't working....

[Coqui]

I personally believe that the spiritual, moral and ethical dilemmas that would arise from such a scenario would be monumental. Man was made to have some sort of vocation, IMHO. Granted, there can be vocations other than "working for survival/prosperity"; not all vocations are careers. Yet, I fear for society when/if there is no need for work.* Indeed, I think that many of US society's problems today are caused by the excess of leisure.

* - I don't think that there will ever be the absence of any human work, by the way.

[Borealis]

Get rid of technology (save OOTP, of course ), it's the scourge of society. Big Brother is coming and his name is Google, Facebook, Apple & Co.. Facial recognition software? Who really benefits? 'Checking in' everywhere you go? Who really needs to know? Does 'Someone' really need to know what the temp and humidity of your home is? Put your life online and Big Brother is thrilled that you make his life easier. People right and left are taking pictures, 'documenting' their life, posting it to ____fill-in-the-blank____, and you happen to be in the background - thanks to facial recognition, guess who knows where you are - and when.

With no jobs, and no income (as long as the two remain linked), Social upheaval, which already is happening, over the 'haves & have nots', will worsen. As the haves will be expected to foot more and more of the bill, we will fall in to a state of communism - or something similar - because who will have all the money? The Señors Stalin, Mao, & Castro of the Big Brother Co..

Freedom, as we define it, will be 'gone forever'. Art imitates Life, and Life imitates Art. 1984 and all those post-apocalyptic movies where society is subservient to the overlords are slowly becoming reality - sans the A-bomb.

[John]

I personally believe that the spiritual, moral and ethical dilemmas that would arise from such a scenario would be monumental. Man was made to have some sort of vocation, IMHO. Granted, there can be vocations other than "working for survival/prosperity"; not all vocations are careers. Yet, I fear for society when/if there is no need for work.* Indeed, I think that many of US society's problems today are caused by the excess of leisure.

* - I don't think that there will ever be the absence of any human work, by the way.

James, I feel the same way. It's not so much about the technological barrier to a post-work world as it is an ingrained behavioral and societal barrier. And there's probably a good reason for that. A post-work world is a stagnant world, IMO, and it's one that would leave me very concerned for our future prospects.

Now that doesn't mean that we can't be looking at ways to refine how we work. Systems that we take for granted here in American (the 40-hour workweek, for example) shouldn't be viewed as unassailable. Automation of menial tasks might allow more people to take on jobs of production - although it might just as easily find low-income workers unemployed. Out work system is a delicate ecosystem, which is probably why there is such trepidation associated with tampering with it.

[Matt]

The more immediate issue in my mind is what happens at the critical point where so much labor has been automated that there isn't enough 'consumer capital' to drive growth? Our present economic-political system is unable to cope with that. A major change must occur it woulds seem. If history is any indicator it will probably be violent.

This is part of what I come back to. Capitalism is driven by growth. Without growth, it collapses. In that sense, it is the greatest Ponzi scheme ever conceived. If less capital is flowing down to a shrinking workforce, there will be a collapse of the entire economic system. Since capitalism is the only viable system on the planet, where do we go when it collapses? The ramifications are wholly and completely tragic. While we struggle through a great social upheaval, we will also be forced to deal with mammoth geo-political ramifications.

Here in America, we might be the least prepared to deal with such a world. We are a people that identify ourselves by our strong work ethic. By any measure, the United States as a whole works harder than any other industrialized nation, by far. The average American works longer hours. Takes fewer vacation days. Takes fewer sick days. Hard work is such a part of our cultural identity. What happens when we suddenly lose that identity? This is going to be such a huge shock to the system that it is hard to imagine us (Americans) making a smooth and peaceful transition to such a world. The potential for violent civil unrest is great.

Maybe it's not a zombie apocalypse or a nuclear war or even a rogue computer program that takes destroys civilization as we know it. Maybe it will simply be no longer having a sense of purpose.

[roncollins]

Yeah. I don't expect such a transition would be particularly peaceful.

I also don't think that the end game is a world without productivity--but I can certainly envision a world without "work" as it is defined today. Work (trading hours for cash) is different from doing something constructive or productive.

At it's root, the problem--if, indeed, it is a problem--is partially defined (heavily defined?) by the psychology of what we think it means to work hard. The world is now full of social studies that prove beyond most measurable doubt that the most _effective_ way to work is to put in fewer hours, but our psychology pushes against that at all levels. Our corporations generally reward people who work 70 hours a week, regardless of whether someone else does better work while using only 45 hours. Some of this is changing as more remote workers come about (since mangers can't "see" people 70 hours a week, they are now being forced to judge a person's merit based on actual results...which is intrinsically interesting to me).

The viewpoint that work has defined who we are is valid and interesting, and it goes a long way toward explaining why we struggle to even accept the _idea_ that a world without (many) jobs could possibly come about. But it will almost certainly happen in some future, probably not in my lifetime, but possibly. When that happens, humans will have to (and almost certainly will) find other ways to satisfy their needs. This is how we evolve. There is no other choice. :)