Dumbest move of the NFL offseason

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Matt
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Re: Dumbest move of the NFL offseason

#61 Post by Matt »

Mike Dunn wrote:
Warriors wrote:Well, scoring three non-offensive TDs is a recipe for winning against most teams (though very hard to do more than once)
Indeed. This doesn't make the Iggles a good team, by any means.

It does, though, show how much Brady needs Gronk.
This game was interesting to me. There is a long running trend in the NFL (my notes go back to the 70's), that teams who lose a game after previously have run off 6 or more wins, and have a total of 2 or less losses on the season, tend to struggle again the following week, usually at least failing to cover the spread, and often losing outright for a second week in a row.

Earlier this year, Denver starts undefeated, loses to Ind. Following week as a 4 point home favorite, lose outright to Kansas City. Green Bay starts 6-0, loses to Denver, following week loses outright as a 2.5 point favorite vs Carolina. Now we can add New England losing to Philadelphia to the list.

In 2014, Arizona had won 6 straight, lose to Seattle, next week lose outright as a 2 point favorite to Atlanta. Dallas rolls off 6 straight, loses to Wash in OT, next week lose outright as 2.5 point favorite over Arizona.

It's a somewhat rare but profitable betting situation when it comes up. Often the loss that ends the winning streak tips you off to some underlying problems that might take the team a few weeks to work through.
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Re: Dumbest move of the NFL offseason

#62 Post by Matt »

Eagles were outgained by New England 427-248. In other words, they got lucky. Teams in the NFL that get outgained by 100 or more yards and still win the game tend to do fairly poorly the following week.
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Re: Dumbest move of the NFL offseason

#63 Post by Denny »

Ocelots wrote:Eagles were outgained by New England 427-248. In other words, they got lucky. Teams in the NFL that get outgained by 100 or more yards and still win the game tend to do fairly poorly the following week.
Soooo....I shouldn't have bet my mortgage payment on Philly next week? NOW you tell me!
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Re: Dumbest move of the NFL offseason

#64 Post by Mike Dunn »

Yeah, I don't think many in this town are deluded into thinking the team is suddenly good. But beating Brady and the Hoodie, by whatever means, particularly after starting down 14-0, was sweet.
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Re: Dumbest move of the NFL offseason

#65 Post by Mike Dunn »

Ocelots wrote:I nominate the Eagles for giving Chip Kelly total control over personnel. Everything he has done since looks like an unmitigated disaster. Bradford for Foles AND you give up a 2nd rounder? You give up the younger better qb for a guy who has blown out the same knee 2 yrs in a row. And you give up draft position? You trade McCoy for a player coming off an injury. You let Maclin walk. You need to be waterboarded so we can find out how much Jerry Jones is paying you to wreck the Eagles.
You nailed it Matt, many months ago. Goodbye, Mr. Chip.

Interim coach, for one game, is former Browns coach Pat Schurmur.
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Re: Dumbest move of the NFL offseason

#66 Post by Matt »

There had been some talk that Kelly would survive and get one more season. I wonder how much the report of Jason Peters taking himself out of the game played into Lurie's decision. If previous rumors that he was going to get one more season were true, then a loss to the Redskins shouldn't have mattered. But a healthy player refusing to play? That's not a good look for a coach.
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Re: Dumbest move of the NFL offseason

#67 Post by Mike Dunn »

Ocelots wrote:There had been some talk that Kelly would survive and get one more season. I wonder how much the report of Jason Peters taking himself out of the game played into Lurie's decision. If previous rumors that he was going to get one more season were true, then a loss to the Redskins shouldn't have mattered. But a healthy player refusing to play? That's not a good look for a coach.
The list of possible straws that broke Chip Kelly's back with owner Jeff Lurie certainly include the Peters issue. (Although its clear Peters is not healthy -- with elbow, ankle and back problems according to reports).

Other possible straws that hastened Lurie's decision include Kelly's news conference on Monday, in which he strangely distanced himself from personnel matters, saying "I'm not the GM," when in fact he fought to become the de facto GM. That probably had Lurie apoplectic.

Another factor in the timing here is the likely firing of NFC East rival Tom Coughlin in New York and the possible firing of Jason Garrett in Dallas. Lurie wants to get a jump on the hiring process, and this time he will likely limit his search to NFL types rather than a college coach.

Add to all that is the simple fact that the NFC East was easily winnable this year -- a merely decent team could have locked it up weeks ago, and Chip Kelly was unable to do that.

So with all that in mind, Lurie and Kelly met Tuesday morning, things did not go well, and Lurie decided to pull the plug now rather than wait until next week.
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Re: Dumbest move of the NFL offseason

#68 Post by Apollos »

I'll be very interested to see what happens next with Kelly. As a Harbaugh/Carroll type, I think he most likely could have picked any available job in college and had it. As it stands, I believe every power five school has their new man now.

All together, the guy did go 26-21 in 3 seasons, which is no small feat for a NFL head coach nowadays. I think balancing his need for the players he wants with total control over personnel decisions is probably the key to success for a coach of his caliber who is still relatively new to the pro game. I don't know that I'd want the guy running the show for my Jints, but given that Tom Coughlin seems ever likelier to be the fall guy for years of poor drafting by Jerry Reese and the Giants FO, I can't say that I'd be heartbroken if the G-men gave him an interview.
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