Dumbest move of the NFL offseason

[Matt]

I'm also having a tough time with the Bradford takes care of the football angle as well.

Bradford 49 games, 38 ints, 27 fumbles.

Completes 58.6% of his passes. 79.3 career passer rating.

Foles 28 games, 17 ints, 16 fumbles

Foles completes 61.6% of his passes, 94.2 career passer rating (his rookie season low of 79.1 is just about Bradford's avg!!)

Now, I counted fumbles and not fumbles lost, as whether or not is recovered or lost is immaterial, it is still a potential turnover and not taking care of the ball.

Turnover rate: Foles 1.18, Bradford 1.32

Foles had a great season in 2013, 27 TD's, just 2 ints.

Foles YPA 7.6 career. Bradford 6.3.

There is no measure to suggest Bradford is the better player. Judging by how happy Foles was to be out of Philadelphia (I know the feeling!!), I believe there was some dynamic to the player/coach relationship that played into this as well. Because you would have to be doing an all-nighter with a crack pipe and a bottle of Night Train Express to think Bradford is the better qb. And it's not even close on value considering Bradford's contract.

Kelly will be coaching junior high in two years after this mess.

[Mike Dunn]

Even though I'm in Philly, and even though I won my fantasy football league this past season, I truly don't know enough about the NFL to weigh in here. But I will say I find both Kyle's and Matt's arguments strong ones, well thought-out and researched.

So the old cliche 'time will tell' certainly applies here. Kelly may be ego-driven, but so what? Isn't that what you want in a Coach-GM, rather than one who has no clear vision? His vision may suck, and may go bust, but its been damn fun to watch him remake the team the way he wants. And the great thing about football, particularly compared to baseball, is that you will see the results quickly -- so next season may prove whether he is a genius, as some claim, or will go running back to Oregon with his little duck tail between his legs.

Judging by how happy Foles was to be out of Philadelphia (I know the feeling!!),

Speaking of cheap shots

By the way, Chip took time off yesterday from wheeling and dealing to deliver footballs to the sons of a slain police officer.

[Matt]

If nothing else, at least the Eagles off season is fun to debate about. Unlike my Niners, who have used the off season to completely implode. It's going to take at least a decade to rebuild from the present mess.

[Vic]

"Last year, Murray finished first in Football Outsiders' DYAR metric and he was second in 2013."
Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/ ... rIbh3Fx.99

Here's the link to the stats from the article: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb - check where McCoy is, negative value per play over replacement. Also, Murray being #2 in DYAR the year BEFORE their super line got put together is pretty telling. Btw, I recommend changing it to 2013 and taking a look. Who is first in DYAR? McCoy. There is the precipitous decline, from #1 to negative value over replacement... how is next year going to look now that he is at the "wall" of age 27 for a RB of his play type? Ruben Amaro should take notes from Kelly on how to trade a player a year too early vs. a year (or 3) too late. Plus, while Murray trailed McCoy in the CUMULATIVE stat in 2013, he actually STILL led him in the value over replacement stat. Oh, and also, to respond to the 400ish carries argument, I agree that IS a concern; however, McCoy has over 500 MORE career rushing attempts than Murray and has ALREADY shown tremendous decline - which one would you rather bank on having a good season next year? Which speaks nothing of their body types and run styles, which obviously favor Murray's potential longevity over McCoy's.

On the topic of how Dallas' super offensive line buoyed him up, Murray had a 5.5 ypc in 2011 and a 5.2 ypc in 2013 - compared to a 4.7 in 2014. How were their lines in those 2 years? In fact, here's a pretty interesting stat...

""Since 1970, among running backs with at least 900 attempts, only four have a better YPC average than Murray (4.85): Jamaal Charles (5.49), Barry Sanders (4.99), Adrian Peterson (4.96) and Napoleon Kaufman (4.90)."
Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/ ... rIbh3Fx.99

Pretty good company. Onto Bradford.

"It's even perfectly fine to take a flier on Bradford. His 2.2 percent interception rate is third among active QBs behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady."
Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/ ... oQyW0tu.99

Clearly they assumed some minimum attempt threshold for that blurb since Nick has a 1.9 interception rate (in less than half Bradford's career attempts), but he had a 3.2 in his most recent comp, last year. Even in his worst season for this stat (by far), his rookie year, Bradford only had a 2.5 rate. In HIS most recent comp (half of 2013), he put up a 1.5 rate.

Some stats for the supporting cast argument:
Dropped pass rates:
2010 - 6. STL (6.2 rate)
2011 - 4. STL (6.2 rate)
2012 - 24. STL (4.6 rate)
2013 - 3. STL (6 rate)

Sacks allowed:
2010 - T18. STL (34)
2011 - 1. STL (55)
2012 - 19. STL (35)
2013 - 25. STL (36)

Now Bradford's stats:
2010 - 76.5 rating; had decent protection, but receivers had stone hands and was a rookie, not bad overall considering
2011 - 70.5 rating; the worst protection in the league and the receivers' hands were still rocks, not terribly surprising he "took a step back"
2012 - 82.6 rating; Got decent protection again and all of a sudden people caught it when he threw it to him... good progression for a 3rd year QB as this was firmly in the middle of the pack for passer ratings (16th for QBs that threw more than 400 times)
2013 - 90.9; Got his best protection, but worst drop rate and managed to play very well for his 7 games prior to the ACL injury. Finished 11th among QBs in rating, which would have been 8th for QBs that threw more than 400 times had he, himself... thrown more than 400 times.

To me, that shows tangible progression from a young QB.

To conclude, I'll just leave these here:
http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/the-ey ... -2014.html
http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2015 ... m-bradford

The offensive line:
"Though McCoy may be a shiftier runner, Murray is a consistent force at turning big holes at the point of attack into long gains. He had 27 runs of 15 or more yards in 2014, nine more than any other runner, and he will exploit the blocking the Eagles give him as well if not better than McCoy was able to.

While the Cowboys' O-line is better at pass protection, the Eagles' O-line is better at run blocking. Jason Peters, Evan Mathis, Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson were all among the top six at their respective positions in 2014 in run blocking, despite Mathis, Kelce and Johnson missing time. When you move Murray from the second-best run-blocking line to the best, you're going to get something special."
Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/ ... 03UzPMy.99

The quote actually comes from a Pro Football Focus article that you need to buy the insider subscription to read. You also need a subscription to fact check the article and look at the stats, but I'll assume that the PFF analyst didn't mis-quote PFF analysis.

-----

At the end of the day, while I have reservations about Bradford, I also KNOW that he is more talented than Foles. Would I rather go for the sure thing 15-20 QB or would I take a lottery ticket for a guy that can be a 5-10, but might end being a complete bust? The risk associated with Bradford is no more than Mariota and I was prepared to trade the entire upcoming draft for the latter... so a 2016 back of the round 2nd seems pretty fair from that perspective.

I also share concerns about Murray, but I do so while recognizing he has and currently IS a better RB than McCoy and in, alot of ways, a 'safer' gamble than him as well. Not to mention that Murray+Alonso+Matthews for McCoy is an absolutely incredible value trade - even if we assume that McCoy can bounce back to being a productive runner next year.

[Rory]

Ok I'm on Matt's side about Chip Kelly making bonehead moves now.
This isn't really a move yet but to even think about trying out Tebow none the less actually buying him a plane ticket to bring him in and work him out leaves me speechless.
Did Kelly watch any film on this cat? I really think he has flipped his lid. lol

[Alleghenies]

If nothing else, at least the Eagles off season is fun to debate about. Unlike my Niners, who have used the off season to completely implode. It's going to take at least a decade to rebuild from the present mess.

Regarding the Niners, how about Chris Borland. Man he looked good. I love that he had the smarts to quit before his brain turned to mush. I loved his play last year and saw him as an up and coming replacement for Willis and Bowman.

Not much for a Bears fan to say about the Cowboys and Eagles. I just want to see Green Bay die, then I'd be happy. I just hope the Eagles and Cowboys save enough in case one of them makes it to the playoffs so they can beat Green Bay.

[Matt]

Noticing Murray missing quite a few practices in training camp. Not the best of signs.

[Matt]

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutd ... 28388.html

And here is why most (all?) sports analytics is merely garbage.

I'll do my own analysis, and be right every time.

[Coqui]

At the end of the day, while I have reservations about Bradford, I also KNOW that he is more talented than Foles. Would I rather go for the sure thing 15-20 QB or would I take a lottery ticket for a guy that can be a 5-10, but might end being a complete bust? The risk associated with Bradford is no more than Mariota and I was prepared to trade the entire upcoming draft for the latter... so a 2016 back of the round 2nd seems pretty fair from that perspective.

I meant to respond to this earlier, but Sam Bradford is not a good quarterback. Maybe the Rams ruined him, and maybe he would have been a good quarterback but for all of the mishandling (alleged) and poor offensive line play (for sure) and injuries, but he was never a very accurate passer for the Rams. He would miss wide open guys by 5 yards two or three times per game, even without being pressured.

I hope he turns it around, because all indications here in St. Louis were that he was one heck of a nice guy, hard worker, kept his nose clean, etc. From a make-up perspective, he was pretty much the perfect #1 overall pick - the anti-Manziel, if you will. But on the football field, he has never shown me anything to justify his status as a #1 overall, or indeed that he will ever be anything more than a mediocre journeyman QB.

[Mike Dunn]

I meant to respond to this earlier, but Sam Bradford is not a good quarterback. Maybe the Rams ruined him, and maybe he would have been a good quarterback but for all of the mishandling (alleged) and poor offensive line play (for sure) and injuries, but he was never a very accurate passer for the Rams. He would miss wide open guys by 5 yards two or three times per game, even without being pressured.

I hope he turns it around, because all indications here in St. Louis were that he was one heck of a nice guy, hard worker, kept his nose clean, etc. From a make-up perspective, he was pretty much the perfect #1 overall pick - the anti-Manziel, if you will. But on the football field, he has never shown me anything to justify his status as a #1 overall, or indeed that he will ever be anything more than a mediocre journeyman QB.

Here in Philly, whether Sam is the Real Thing is THE #1 question, and so far your well-reasoned perspective is proving true. In Week 1 he was picked off in the end zone by a defender who had his back to him when the ball was released. Had he simply thrown it two feet higher to the intended receiver, who was in position and ready, it would have been caught for a game-winner.

I only hope that he stays injury-free so that we can see his final numbers for a full year, and compare them to Foles'.

[Matt]

The sad thing about Sam Bradford? Colin Koepernick has a higher qb rating through 7 games.

[Borealis]

The sad thing about Sam Bradford? Colin Koepernick has a higher qb rating through 7 games.

And THAT is SAD!!!

EDIT:
And this just in: Bench, this is Colin... Colin, this is Bench... Now, Colin, Grab some Pine, Meat!

[Matt]

EDIT:
And this just in: Bench, this is Colin... Colin, this is Bench... Now, Colin, Grab some Pine, Meat!

Now if Texas would just fire Charlie Strong. *sigh*

[Coqui]

I meant to respond to this earlier, but Sam Bradford is not a good quarterback. Maybe the Rams ruined him, and maybe he would have been a good quarterback but for all of the mishandling (alleged) and poor offensive line play (for sure) and injuries, but he was never a very accurate passer for the Rams. He would miss wide open guys by 5 yards two or three times per game, even without being pressured.

I hope he turns it around, because all indications here in St. Louis were that he was one heck of a nice guy, hard worker, kept his nose clean, etc. From a make-up perspective, he was pretty much the perfect #1 overall pick - the anti-Manziel, if you will. But on the football field, he has never shown me anything to justify his status as a #1 overall, or indeed that he will ever be anything more than a mediocre journeyman QB.

Here in Philly, whether Sam is the Real Thing is THE #1 question, and so far your well-reasoned perspective is proving true. In Week 1 he was picked off in the end zone by a defender who had his back to him when the ball was released. Had he simply thrown it two feet higher to the intended receiver, who was in position and ready, it would have been caught for a game-winner.

I only hope that he stays injury-free so that we can see his final numbers for a full year, and compare them to Foles'.

FWIW, it's not like Foles has been a world-beater in St. Louis. The Rams are 4-3 in spite of him, not because of him. Indeed, he had a 4-pick game in what was surprisingly (at the time, anyway) a winnable game at Green Bay. The debate in the Lou is whether Foles would be better if he had a receiver who could get open and/or stretch the field, or whether he's just the mediocre QB that he appears to be. I'd bet it's the latter, which is a shame, because a good QB on a team with the Rams defense and sensation Todd Gurley could make for a really fun season.

[Coqui]

An update to the aftermath of this trade, which appears to be about as relevant as two bald men fighting over a comb, going into week 11 of the NFL season, Bradford is questionable thanks to a concussion and separated shoulder (non-throwing shoulder), and Foles is benched thanks to being craptastic and generally wasting the season of what could be an above-average NFL team on the basis of a frequently dominating defense.