Pitch count insanity

[Matt]

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-l ... 15112.html

[Cole]

Read that story earlier today. That's just insane. I can't even imagine how these kids could be effective after throwing so many pitches.

[Simon]

Both of the managers/coaches should be fired right away before they do any more damage.

[Cole]

Both of the managers/coaches should be fired right away before they do any more damage.

This type of stuff is fairly common in Japanese baseball, from what I gather, Simon.

Of course, most games don't go 50 innings, but pitchers getting insanely overworked is more the norm over there than it is here in North America.

[Matt]

I have heard of the kids there pitching every game of a tournament, pitching on back to back days, throwing 250 pitches in a game. But this was sheer insanity. Pitching 50 innings in 4 days? That's a quarter of a season's workload for a major league starter, and you want a high school kid to do it in 4 days? That's child abuse, IMO.

[Rory]

Here's a great article on pitch counts through the years.

MLB Pitch Count History

[Matt]

Here's a great article on pitch counts through the years.

MLB Pitch Count History

The problem with this article and studies it cites is that it neglects to take into account issues beyond injuries. There is the issue of effectiveness. Even without injuries, pitchers do suffer some effect from pitching high totals of innings in one season and will also suffer some effect after a high pitch count game.

Take a look at Carlton's 1972 season. He was 27-10, 1.97 for a team that only won 59 games. This was arguably the best single season of any pitcher in the modern era. Then look at 1973. 13-20 with a 3.90 ERA. That was the highest ERA of his career until he turned 40 and stuck around too long.

You can see a similar effect game to game when a pitcher throws an abnormally high number of pitches. Over the years I have studied the game logs on pitchers quite extensively, and the effects and number of pitches vary from pitcher to pitcher. But it's there. The arm gets tired. And while not all pitchers with a tired arm will get injured, why take the chance given what you are paying these guys?

[roncollins]

I've seen various studies that show fairly conclusively that very high pitch counts will reduce effectiveness. But I do think modern teams over-correct by a very wide margin--particularly with the 5-man rotation. I have every expectation that a team could throw a 4-man rotation while keeping their starters capped at 110 pitches or so, and be just fine. Especially with pitchers who are past 28 or 29 years old.

If I were a starting pitcher, I would be pushing my manager to use me in that fashion.