The Planetary Extreme Baseball Alliance

Woohoo. I spent a couple seasons dreading this post. Nice to be on the plus side again.

They're baaaack...

These have not been processed since 2022, largely because Matt's scoring system departed with him. I've put together a formula of my own to adhere to the spirit of the rules set out in the constitution.

A refresher:

• A team’s performance has the potential to affect its fan loyalty and market size. Since expectations are different in different markets, each team will be reviewed based on the expectations for their market. Teams with the largest markets and largest budgets will have the greatest expectations. Teams in smaller markets with smaller budgets will have lesser expectations. Teams will be awarded or penalized based on how they fared against those expectations.
• The team that exceeds expectations by the greatest amount will receive a market size increase. The next 4 teams who most exceeded expectations will see a fan loyalty increase.
• The team that performs the worst against expectations will see a market size decrease. The next 4 teams who most faltered against expectations will see a fan loyalty decrease.
• Expectations will be based on market size, team budget, playoff appearances in the last ten seasons, and team record over the last 5 seasons. Points are awarded/subtracted based on team record, place in division, playoff appearance, and winning a championship.
• A minimum of 2 years must pass between fan loyalty changes, and a minimum of 3 years must pass between market size changes. Winning a PEBA championship makes a team exempt from market size/fan loyalty drops for the next 3 years.

Since two years have passed since there have been any loyalty changes, all teams are eligible for this adjustment.

Because no current PEBA team received a Market Size adjustment in 2022, all teams are eligible for this adjustment as well.

Adjustments will be determined following the playoffs, and will be announced live at this years Winter Meetings. A full league-wide ranking will later be posted in this forum.

Here's what one half of the equation looks like. These are the season expectations of various PEBA fan bases in 2025. (It occurs to me that this might be a fun thing to look at heading into spring training next season. We could even see how the fan base expectations change over time.)

So what are we looking at here? Using a spreadsheet and maths, each team is assigned an expectation score, which you can read like you would OPS+ for a player (methodology is not dissimilar); 100 is average, numbers above 100 are good, and numbers below 100 are not good.

Calculating season performance will generate a similar score. The season expectation score is subtracted from the performance score to see how well a team performed relative to expectations. A score of zero would indicate that the team met its fans' expectations. A positive score will mean that fan expectations were exceeded, and a negative score will indicate that the team under-performed in the eyes of its fans.

Team
Amsterdam - 109
Arlington - 119
Aurora - 149
Bakersfield - 133
Canton - 61
Crystal Lake - 130
Duluth - 99
Edinburgh - 83
Fargo - 79
Florida - 143
Hartford - 85
Havana - 93
Kalamazoo - 77
Kentucky - 108
London - 105
Neo-Tokyo - 65
New Orleans - 67
Okinawa - 96
Palm Springs - 90
Reno - 92
San Antonio - 72
San Juan - 73
Shin Seiki - 155
Toyama - 106
West Virginia - 107
Yuma - 105

So, a score of 100 is good? How does Yuma finish last and earn a score of 105?
Whose water you drinking?

Bulldozers wrote:So, a score of 100 is good? How does Yuma finish last and earn a score of 105?
Whose water you drinking?

Keep in mind that these were the fan expectations heading into the 2025 season. Actual performance scores have not yet been generated.

Bulldozers wrote:So, a score of 100 is good? How does Yuma finish last and earn a score of 105?
Whose water you drinking?

Are we back to that Yuma water?

Sandgnats wrote:

Bulldozers wrote:So, a score of 100 is good? How does Yuma finish last and earn a score of 105?
Whose water you drinking?

Are we back to that Yuma water?

Have we ever left...? I think not...

Here... Have a bottle...

Borealis wrote:

Sandgnats wrote:

Bulldozers wrote:So, a score of 100 is good? How does Yuma finish last and earn a score of 105?
Whose water you drinking?

Are we back to that Yuma water?

Have we ever left...? I think not...

Here... Have a bottle...

Hey Mike! Should I watch out for the water at Northern Lights Park when I got to watch game 6? (lol)

The final standings for 2025.

While the performance and expectation scores are rounded, the final score is taken to two decimal points to break a tie.

Commish wrote:The final standings for 2025.

While the performance and expectation scores are rounded, the final score is taken to two decimal points to break a tie.

Performance Standings.pdf

Okay, nifty numbers, but what does it mean? If Yuma is a -50 something, what does that convert to? Do I owe everyone in the league 50 gallons of water?

just great .... 6.66

Really?

Does Yuma even have 50 gallons of water?

Sandgnats wrote:Does Yuma even have 50 gallons of water?

I saw at least 50 cases at the ballpark on our last visit... the plates were guzzling it like it was water - or is that like it was vodka? I get confused about that sometimes...

Borealis wrote:

Sandgnats wrote:Does Yuma even have 50 gallons of water?

I saw at least 50 cases at the ballpark on our last visit... the plates were guzzling it like it was water - or is that like it was vodka? I get confused about that sometimes...

Woooo!

Definitely won't be low expectations this season.