Unga Bunga: A Warriors Blog

[John]

Both Players of the Year were 6th round picks, and both were taken out of high school. Very interesting, particularly the 6th round part. It drives home the point that those mid-round picks matter. Scouting directors generally aren't loving remaining players too much by the time those mid-rounds roll around, so I think there's a tendency to assume there's no one of value left and begin to phone in the selections. That's when studying performance can help. Shaffer was a solid two-year performer at East Rutherford High School, and while Sutherland was knocked around pretty good during his high school days, he posted wicked strikeout numbers that seem to have served as an indicator of future success. Study those stats! They tell a story.

[Borealis]

Both Players of the Year were 6th round picks, and both were taken out of high school. Very interesting, particularly the 6th round part. It drives home the point that those mid-round picks matter. Scouting directors generally aren't loving remaining players too much by the time those mid-rounds roll around, so I think there's a tendency to assume there's no one of value left and begin to phone in the selections. That's when studying performance can help. Shaffer was a solid two-year performer at East Rutherford High School, and while Sutherland was knocked around pretty good during his high school days, he posted wicked strikeout numbers that seem to have served as an indicator of future success. Study those stats! They tell a story.

There are definitely gems to be had as John says, GBB RML Outstanding Hitter Ken Coleman was a 7th rounder, and the #23 of that round to boot! Almost an 8th rounder...

[Bill]

"See You in Court!"
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
November 5, 2013



Apparently contract talks between the Duluth Warriors and third baseman Stan Gill have been going poorly. Very poorly. Gill has characterized the discussions as both “revolting” and “unproductive.” GM Bill McKenzie said that the infielder has been “pushy, stubborn, and a little childish” about coming to terms to a contract for the 2014 season. Like I said, things are going very poorly indeed.

Gill is coming off a second straight season 20 HR, 85 RBI, 30 VORP season for a team that, in general, struggles to score runs. After two years of production like that, he is expecting a big raise in 2014, apparently upwards of $3.5 million dollars in his first arbitration-eligible season. “I didn’t have the flashy numbers like Ron (Elmore) but I can hit a little too,” said the 27-year old switch hitter about his season. “Apparently Mr. McKenzie has failed to notice though. Well, I’ll get his attention, believe you me!”

“Stan Gill is a great player for the Duluth organization,” said McKenzie to Unga Bunga this morning, “but baseball is a business and sometimes contract negotiations can become very personal. I try my best to avoid that type of situation, but occasionally it is inevitable. We have made every effort to make a reasonable offer to Stan, but as of now we are pretty far apart. I’m not sure what else we can do.”

McKenzie was unwilling to disclose specifics about the team’s offer, but one can only imagine that the two sides are separated by at least a million dollars to create this sort of impass. When we recontacted Gill for comment after our discussion with the team general manager, he had only one comment before abruptly ended the conversation: “See you in court!”

This might get worse before it gets better.

[John]

Somebody's heading to arbitration with a chip on his shoulder...

[Bill]

Gill Wins...and There's a Bong in Arizona
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
November 25, 2013

The arbitration season has come and gome in the PEBA and two members of the Duluth Warriors took their cases to court to close the economical rift between the parties.

Case A: SP Minoru Kudo
Even despite a rough patch in June, Kudo one of Duluth's best starters in 2013 until he tore his labrum in July. He certainly earned a significant raise in the first three months with a 4-6 record, a 4.23 ERA, and nearly eight strikeouts per nine innings of work. It appeared that Kudo wanted paid like the player that put up those numbers while the team wanted to pay him like the pitcher he might be in June when he starts his comeback. In the end, the team won and Kudo got a marginal raise to $621,000 for the upcoming season that will be shortened by the labrum injury.

Case B: The much publicized chasm between the team and 3B Stan Gill
Clearly, Gill was due a big raise regardless of the result, but no love lost here as the team and Gill's agent were apparently at least a million dollars apart in pre-trial negotiations. Of course, Gill's case was based on the numbers: two straight seasons of 20 HR and 85 RBI, career high .298 batting average, nearly equivalent VORP over the last two seasons to Pat Holman. The team countered with Gill's sub-par defense (19 errors at 3B) and his extreme splits for a switch hitter (.937 OPS v. LHP, .729 OPS v. RHP). But chicks and arbiters dig the long ball and Gill won his case and got a $3.6 million contract for the 2014.

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In other unsubstantiated news....I was checking flight plans into the Tempe Regional Airport to dig up dirt on the Hancock Derby, and to my surprise what tail number did I see in the logs? MJ4ME2 - the number for Bong Water 1, the executive jet of none other than Duluth Warriors owner Arne Bong himself....Surely you don't think?...no way, this HAS to be something other than what it seems...

[John]

In other unsubstantiated news....I was checking flight plans into the Tempe Regional Airport to dig up dirt on the Hancock Derby, and to my surprise what tail number did I see in the logs? MJ4ME2 - the number for Bong Water 1, the executive jet of none other than Arne Bong himself....Surely you don't think - no way, this HAS to be something other than what it seems...

Ooooh, the plot thickens!

[Bill]

In or Out?
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
December 1, 2013

Like every media outlet in the PEBA, Unga Bunga has been following the Hancock Derby as closely as possible for the last two weeks. As reported last week, it appears that the Duluth Warriors and the Bong/McKenzie front office has been actively pursuing Markus Hancock and his golden arm. Of course, sources close to the team continue to toe the company line and repeat the same non-answer to questions about the team's involvement concerning negotiations with Tempe.

GM McKenzie issued a press release yesterday about the situation, but did not specifically mention any possible acquisition of Hancock. "Obviously, it is in the best interest of the organization to evaluate all avenues to improve the quality of the Warriors at all levels. We will continue to do this during this offseason and will assess and act on any and all opportunities that present themselves to our organization." Another non-answer.

Arne Bong's 5-hour trip to the desert of Arizona had to have been about Marcus Hancock. Of this I am convinced. But I still am unsure about the seriousness of Duluth's interest in the 3-time Golden Arm winner. I'm sure the team could move several of their top prospects in a package to acquire the league's top pitcher, but would it be worth it for 240 innings of excellence per year?

What about the other four rotation spots?
And centerfield?
And upgrading the +2 VORP we got out of first base and the DH last season?

While I agree that the Warriors need starting pitching at the major league level as bad as anyone, I think we have more fish to fry than one single guy like Hancock. It would be a wiser move to spread that money around to several other positions.

But to play devil's advocate, what would the Warriors be able to give up to get the Golden Arm of Marcus Hancock?

• Well, getting Hancock could replace one of the big three of Dave Barker, Rich Jones, or Davis Sutherland. I think they'd be crazy to trade Barker, so we'll say Jones gets thrown in.
• With decent corner OFs in Duluth (Mayer and Elmore) just entering their prime, top hitting prospect Tadamichi Sato in AAA is probably expendable.
• Carlos Fernandez and Dave McAllister are both top SP prospects at the same level at a position of relative strength; let's include Slayer in the deal to give some top end strength.
• Everybody needs young talented arms, right? Let's throw a couple relievers into the mix to have a stronger package of arms.
• A rebuilding teams needs draft picks too, though I would like to see Duluth keep the 7th overall pick. I'll include the rounds 2-4 picks in the offer.
• Finally, maybe we take back a contract that Tempe would not want, like Matsusuke Nakayama and his $6.3million for 7.0 VORP in 2013.

So that it gets us to three 4-5 star talents, a couple RPs, three picks to build with, and continued financial relief for Tempe. Of course, rumors of similar deals have been flying around the media like dandelion seeds in a windstorm, even one team offering as many as 15 players and picks for Hancock. From what I've heard, I doubt the deal I've outlined will get it done and if Hancock comes to Duluth, I imagine either Barker or Josh Shaffer will have to be included. To me, it isn't worth it.

But who really knows if the Warriors are in or out.

[klewis]

In or out, I am picking the Warriors as the deep sleeper team in 2014. Their pitching staff is shaping up nicely with two young first round pitching prospects in Jones and Barker. You also have Ishida from the Semblano deal. Will Ishida be a starter or reliever? Rivera and Thomas give Duluth two talented relievers.

Their pitching staff is shaping up nicely. The only thing holding them back I see is the lack of talent on the positional player side. Holman and Cortéz are very nice players. But that's $26 million paid between two guys. It is also very debatable that both players are overpaid compared to the salaries received from similar players playing at those positions. So it will be interesting to see whether the team decides to off load those players for AAA prospects or complement those players with some established players.

If they can get some decent offense, the Warriors may make some noise this coming season. I'm thinking the bar be set around 80 wins.

Or who knows, maybe they will get Hancock Either way, the Warriors are vastly improving and I've been a big fan of the team since the Carve regime took over the team. With Carve leaving, the team has been left in good hands.

[Bill]

In or out, I am picking the Warriors as the deep sleeper team in 2014.

REAL deep. Like Rip-Van-Winkle, 14-teams-forget-to-export-all-season deep.

We certainly have some obvious places to improve. I amended the VORP stat, but +1.8 VORP out of 1000 ABs of 1B and DH is pretty sucktacular. Clearly we can improve on that. Otis Watts is a step in the right direction; we needed some ability to see a few pitches. AAA 3B Josh Shaffer may see some time at first if he can hit the ground running this spring. Or we may feast on the buffet in free agency for the right price.

Or we may hit a grand slam in the Hancock Derby!

[klewis]

Hello Mr. Olaf,

Cool name, by the way! It seems the local fans and nation is buzzing over the Warriors. Undoubtedly, the Warriors will be go as far as the Four Aces can carry them. Can you give me a quick run down on those four pitchers (Barker, Jones, Ishida, and Sutherland)? Which of the four is most likely to be starting opening day? How do you project their careers? Are we talking about four true aces here?

Thanks!
Jonnie Hurley from Saint Cloud

[Bill]

Offseason Mailbag
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
January 2, 2014

Happy New Year, my fellow Duluthians!

Hopefully your bellies are filled with lutefisk and your heads are filled with Warrior baseball - I know mine is. And no - it is NOT the other way around, as some of our readers have suggested. Anyhoo, I thought we'd visit the Unga Bunga mailbag today and answer both of the letters I got this offseason....hahaha, just kidding. It was three letters.

Dear Olaf,
Great news about the Ruben Cruz signing, huh? I can't WAIT to see him in green and white - ¡Viva Rubén Cruz! Beware Great Lakes pitchers. And bring some more beer next time you come up.
Signed, Cousin Magnus in Silver Bay

Thanks Magnus. Pretty cold up there in Silver Bay, eh? I'll be up in June, don't you worry.

Ta-da, in all his green-and-white splendor:


Cruz is definitely exactly what the doctor ordered in the middle of the Warrior lineup. Good all-around hitter with a solid batting eye and decent power to all fields. Plug him in 150 times at the three hole and watch the stats pile up. He'll definitely like hitting here at Doyle Buhl Stadium. Good to see the Bong/McKenzie brain trust go out and get a big name player in Duluth. That should really energize the fan base. Clearly it worked on Cousin Magnus.

Hello Mr. Olaf,
Cool name, by the way! It seems the local fans and nation is buzzing over the Warriors. Undoubtedly, the Warriors will be go as far as the Four Aces can carry them. Can you give me a quick run down on those four pitchers (Barker, Jones, Ishida, and Sutherland)? Which of the four is most likely to be starting opening day? How do you project their careers? Are we talking about four true aces here?

Thanks!
Jonnie Hurley from Saint Cloud

Who knew people could read us way out in St. Cloud? That's super! Well, there's a lot to talk about there, but I'll address it the best I can.

Dave Barker is projected to be an ace at the PEBA level. He was the #19 rated prospect in 2013 by Baseball America and did nothing to dispel that hype during the season. He went 14-5 with a 3.84 ERA at AAA Madison with even better peripherals (8.5 K/9, 2 BB/9, 3.19 FIP). To top that, he began his career with 16.1 shutout innings to start his PEBA career during his cup of coffee in September. Throws hard, throws strikes, keeps the ball down - Barker is the real deal. No brainer, this guy has pitched his last minor league game and has clear all-star potential. He really only needs to perfect his offspeed stuff to take the last step to greatness.

Rich Jones spent a couple months in Duluth last year after dominating at AAA Madison (7-4, 2.60 ERA, 9.6 K/9). His first taste of the PEBA last summer was pretty sour and earned him a trip back to Madison in July to regain his confidence. In September we saw a different pitcher (2 wins, 3.28 ERA). And really his FIP was nearly a run lower than his mid-5s ERA, so I think there is nothing to worry about here. He needs to stay out of the middle of plate to be successful, particularly against lefties. Jones' track record is great and I expect him to maintain the record through his days in Duluth. Great velocity + rubber arm + ability to miss bats = Ace in waiting. Should be a legitimate #2 starter that rests the bullpen every 5 days. I believe he has also pitched his last game at Madison.

Davis Sutherland is the most intriguing of the three big arms. He throws the hardest and misses the most bats, but doesn't have the polished control of the other two guys. 2013 was also his first season as a full time starter since Little League, however the big righty exceeded every expectation with a 13-7 record and a 3.24 ERA with 6.5 H/9 and an amazing 10.6 K/9. The team rightfully named Sutherland Minor League Pitcher of the Year for his efforts and sent the pitcher to winter ball to stretch his arm out with hopes of pitching in Duluth in 2014. If he can limit the number of wasted pitches and be more than a 5 inning pitcher, Duluth may have an ace in the hole. There is no doubt he will pitch in Duluth this season; worst case is he works the 7th inning and hands the ball to Otis Mathews every couple nights. But I think there is more here - I predict Sutherland challenges for SL Wunderkind in 2014...

Sakutaro Ishida is a real x-factor on the team. GM Bill McKenzie has said publicly that he would prefer Ichida pitch opposite Otis Mathews in the bullpen. But the team really needed a starter last year and "Itchy" stepped up and earned a job. Before a couple clunkers to end the season, Ichida turned out seven straight starts giving up two runs or less. Also a converted reliever, Itchy doesn't have the arm to go deep into games, but can be very effective for 5-6 innings once a week. Could be a great fifth starter. Also could be sent back to the pen if SP Minoru Kudo can return from offseason surgery. My guess is that he continues to be a very effective swingman and could force his way into the rotation full time with another year like 2013.

Thanks for reading us out in St. Cloud and say hello to Aunt Marge for me.

Dear Unga Bunga,
Does Arne Bong have lutefisk for brains? Why did we give up two good prospects PLUS picks to get a whiny centerfielder that couldn't play through blisters and headaches in New Orleans?
Sven in Superior, WI

Well, at least I'm not the only one claimed to have fish for brains. Roberto Holguín is a very talented outfielder that brings the necessary defense to the spacious fields of Doyle Buhl Stadium. The man can definitely put the bat on the ball and has proven talent to help Duluth in 2014. But the price did seem a little steep - heck, Rob Jones might equal Holguín's production this very season. But I know McKenzie wasn't very comfortable handing the CF job over to either the oft-injured Martin Griffin or the Rule 5 pick Elvin Richter. So this was a move out of necessity more than anything.


Well I'm off to the ice shanty. Good fishin' boys and we'll catch you in a couple months for the spring training team preview.

[Bill]

Ishida Joins Big Four in the Rotation
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
March 30, 2014



Warriors manager Miguel Angel Flores has announced that swingman Sakutaro Ishida will be the team's fifth starter to open the season. Other hopefuls Matt Howard and Norberto Guillén have been demoted back to AAA Madison.

The club apparently was not comfortable handing the ball to either Howard or Guillen every fifth day. Each had some successful outings during the spring, but also had some very forgetable outings as well. Guillén gave up 9 runs to Aurora in his very first outing and that seemed to set the tone for his March. Howard pitched decently, including holding Palm Springs to a 2-run homer in four innings last week, but I think the team wants to see him put some more innings back on his arm since he missed most of last year with injury.

The good news in this is that now the Warriors have five solid starters that each posted an ERA under 3.00 this spring. Unfortunately, this move further depletes a bullpen that has already had to (literally) shoulder injuries to Mesquite Medina and Gerardo Rivera this spring. But we trust that Flores knows what is best for his ballclub.

[Bill]

'Bomber' Moniker Here to Stay for Home Run Champ
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
March 31, 2014

As we all remember, our own Ronald Elmore became the first home run champ in Warriors history with his 42 round trippers last season. He was also honored with this baseball card giveaway prior to the all-star break:

ronald_elmore_2013_promo.png

Apparently 'The Bomber' has taken around the Duluth clubhouse as an unofficial nickname of sorts. It started as a little good natured ribbing at first, but quickly grew into a true sign of respect as Elmore continued his torrid home run pace through the summer. I asked the slugger what he thought of his new moniker.

"I didn't like it at first," admitted Elmore. "The guys gave me a real hard time about that card. Carlos (Colon) found one of those old fake aviator jackets from the 80s with like a foot of polyester fuzz in the collar and hung it in my locker before a game. But as I kept hitting homers, it became sort of a rallying cry through the dog days of the summer when we weren't playing all that well."

I think he realizes that being The Bomber a good thing now. Maybe that little extra chemistry will help the team down the line. Of course, he has to earn it again this year - Elmore had no long balls in spring training this year. But I think it's pretty safe to mark him down for another 30 bombs this year.

And who am I to stand in the way of a good nickname. The Bomber it is...

EDIT: Ahhh....that's better - picture fixed!

[Bill]

So Let's Overanalyze 2.5% of the Schedule!
by Olaf Halvorsen
April 5, 2014

We been through just 4 games of the PEBA season thus far - so it's time to jump to conclusions even before we see the fifth starter get to the mound.

DUL 4, K-Zoo 3
The Warriors did well to come back from an early 3-1 defecit, but deserved to lose this game several times. The Badgers put runners on first and third with no outs in the 8th inning, but failed to score after two punch outs and a pop up. Then closer Ben Thomas loaded the bases with no outs before striking out the side to notch his first save of the year. We'll chalk this one up to poor K-Zoo execution rather than extraordinary clutch by the Warriors. But 1-0 is 1-0 and we move on. Barker (8 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K) gave us exactly what we had hoped for in his first opening day start including working out of that 8th inning jam. Killa' Watts homered in his first AB in green and white. Ruben Cruz, Stan Gill, and catcher-fill-in Paul Boyd each had 2 hits on Opening Day.

DUL 7, K-Zoo 4
Duluth again fell behind early to the Badgers, this time 3-0 after two frames. But Rich Jones (6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 11 K) settled in and shut down the Badgers the rest of the way while his lineup mates picked him up late. Four hits, a walk, and an error in the eighth led to four Warrior runs and won the game for reliever Otis Mathews. OF Martin Griffin had three hits, including a key triple that led to two runs that tied the score in the seventh inning. Jones got stronger late, striking out 5 of the last 7 batters he faced.

DUL 5, K-Zoo 2
Jesus Gonzalez (8.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K) easily earned 1/32 of his $8million salary this day as he stymied the Badgers into the ninth inning to complete the series sweep. Ruben Cruz and hidden-catcher-in-the-rough Paul Boyd each hit a home run and accounted for all five runs batted in. Five Warrior batters had two hits in the game. On the down side, Miguel Cortez committed his second error at shortstop and it appears more and more that his days in the middle of the diamond may be numbered.

BAK 7, DUL 1
Hmmm...this glass isn't even 10% full. Davis Sutherland gave up 7 runs and allowed 15 base runners in five innings. And it only looked that good thanks to three double plays. Did I also mention he failed to strike out even ONE Bear batter in his major league debut? So much for that SL Wunderkind prediction. Clearly I was drinking the Bong water on that one. The only water in this mostly empty glass was Ron Elmore's first home run of the season.

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So, the Warriors ability to sweep a team in their division is obviously a good thing, especially considering they had a good chance to drop one or two of those games. But on the same token, they had a good chance to drop one or two of those games. Sutherland's outing was pretty alarming as he didn't even look like the same pitcher we saw this spring, as really was the entire team's performance against the Bears. Only five double plays kept that game from being a total blowout. I'd like to see a little more competitive baseball against quality opponents. There is definitely plenty to be worried about despite the smoke-and-mirrors of the inital 3-1 record.

And who's this Hancock guy we'll be facing today? Guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Bill]

Is Cortéz Ready for the Glue Factory?
by Olaf Halvorsen, Senior Blogologist
April 13, 2013



OK, so that may be a little harsh. Old #23 still has a .383 OBP this season and had a four-hit game against Bakersfield last week. But the Old Man with a C looks lost at sea with four errors in 11 games at shortstop already this season. He appears headed for a second straight sub-par season in the field after finishing 2013 with 18 errors (including a 3-error day in the last week of the season). These facts leave this know-nothing blogologist wondering just how long the Warriors can keep Cortéz in the middle of the diamond.

Of course, it's not like we have 17 other options. Rule 5 draftee Juan Zúñiga (5-for-14, 3 runs) has been solid early on, but has zero power and really is more of a second baseman by trade. AAA shortstop Mike Herr failed miserably in a cup of coffee last season and I think the brass in Duluth is a little gun shy in giving him another opportunity. Nor is he doing much to earn a trip north with a 6-for-34 start in Madison.

Ideally, we'd be able to slide him over to third base where the Warriors could hide his proclivity for miscues. But I don't think Stan Gill or Josh Shaffer would think much of that idea. Maybe he ends up at second base eventually. Or maybe he pushes Otis Watts to the bench, though DH duty seems a waste for a once solid PEBA shortstop.

But it may be coming to that.