Talking Trends - Team Blog (short thoughts)

[Reg]

Richardson good luck charm?

Before the Trendsetters signed the much aligned infielder, they were 7-10. 7 games later, no losses and the Trendsetters finish the spring tied for first in the Dixie. "I guess, " said a non committal Richardson, "It's definitely good to finally have something positive coming at me from the media. Maybe General Mills will be calling me up to do a commercial: Ice- Cold milk always goes great with lucky charms." Richardson won lots of laughs with that comment, and seems to be settling in to the lower pressure atmosphere at New Orleans. He finished the interview with this thought, " I will be the lucky charm as long as Cobb doesn't hatch some idea about wearing my foot around his neck!"

Cobb on the other hand was less excited about the recent winning streak. "Rah Rah and all that, but lets face it...spring training. We are talking about spring training. Fans better not jump to some conclusion that a winning streak of 3 games let along 7 is a given in this season. One game at a time, and when we manage to win two in a row, then we can smile a little bit. My goal, win five more than we did last year. You keep doing that every year and you look up and you are back in the playoffs. But lets get serious people, spring training...it's just that!."

[Borealis]

I'm exited to see what Paul does with The Frigid One... Nice start!

[Reg]

5 questions concerning the start of the Trendsetter season:

Today, Question 1: Is Er Hang really the ace of the staff?

Errrrrrrr...yes.....When Monk went down with an injury that will keep him out for at least the first two months of regular season, the ideal of Monk and Pizza as a one two combo got pushed back. Hang was hanging around with a 30 day minor league deal, and got the call and is now going to headline the staff. Sliding into the number 2 is Chet King. King was a used to be expected starter...now he has bounced between the long relief/starter role that no one knows where he will end up every year. Pizza slides to number 3 where he will continue to refine his form and attempt to break into the high levels of talents that some scouts think he has. Carlos Pena who entered into the league with such high hopes is now number 4, and could lose that position if he doesn't come through consistently in the first two months. Rounding up the rotation is Valentin Toro who was picked up mid spring, and pitched four no-hit innings versus the Hitmen in the last week of spring training, thus earning him the fifth spot.

[Reg]

Question 2: Can this years outfield surpass last years VORP?

The safe bet is yes, considering that when added together the total VORP for those filling in the outfield position was 5.3. The good news is that two of the three with the highest vorp are back. Elvin Richter at 9.4 and Pablo Cabrera at 14.8. The bad news is that neither guy has been known to be particularly sturdy. Richter seemed to be at the cusp of breaking out, but instead broke a bone and missed the rest of the season. Cabrera has played in 91 and 86 games due to injuries during his first two PEBA season. The Trendsetters don't really have any depth at center field, (welcome to the PEBA) so they are crossing their fingers that he can stay healthy this year. One step they are taking is to remove both players from late inning duty with two capable defensive outfielders. RF Manuel Serrano struggled with injuries in 2015 but was injury free in 2016, the team is hopeful he will be healthy and that he will squeeze one more productive season before he is replaced by top organizational prospect Dave Nash. RF was a black hole in the line up last year, and if Serrano can put up anywhere close to career averages, the Trendsetters will be very happy. For the pessimistic fan, the odds of the starting three staying healthy for an entire season, are most likely slim to none. But hey that's what opening day is all about, hope!

[Reg]

Question 3: Will Rodriguez break the PEBA save record this year?

Last year Rodriguez saved a team high 45 games in 49 save opportunities...as a rookie. Giving that the Trendsetters only won 69 games, the possibility of an even higher number of saves is certainly not out of the question. The PEBA single season record is 50. This spring Edgardo showed no signs of slowing down, getting a save in 11 of the 14 wins in spring break. The bullpen is back and looks to be as solid as ever, with the addition of Ricardo Davis in exchange for Orlando Ramos.

[Reg]

How is the Dixie look to be shaking out this year?

Last year: 1st Place - Florida RF/G:4.4 (3rd in Dixie) RA/G:3.5 (1st)

The Featherheads have an embarrasment of riches at starting pitching, and had a pretty impressive run with limited injuries last year. The staff dominated allowiing just 560 runs last season, the closest competition in the IL leage was more than 50 runs away. The scary thing is that they are all back and several of the youngsters have another year of experience to add to their talent.

On the offensive side of things the team ended up in the middle of the pack in scoring runs. Pablo Prado ended up not being the answer to replacing Morimoto's production, but it didn't matter because Luis Torres is a stud. Now Pork n' beans has put on the powder blue and red and the team hopes that the core of Torres, Hickman, and Peterson will spell another Rodriguez Cup.

Weakness: They need some production from thier young players on offense. The clock has to be clicking for players like Raul Medina and Javier Cruz. If they get any signifacant production from a player not named Torres, Hickman, and Petersen the offense could match the pitching in eliteness.

Dixie Prediction: Don't see anyone rising up and challenging these guys for another Dixie first place finish.

[Reg]

Last year: 2nd place Charleston RF/G:4.5 (1st) RA/G:4.4 (2nd)

The once elite Statesmen pitching staff got another year older and lost two of their mainstays, one to a CEI and the other to free agency. Conan and Fate will still give the team a chance to win the majority of the times they go out to pitch, but both had down years last year. Still they finished at .500 last year thanks to the fact that they scored more runs than they allowed. Questions remain after the departure of Leon Valentin, and due to financial woes, the fact that no one was added in free agency. They have a great trio of outfielders who will do most of the heavy lifting for the offense, and they have players that seem to have great potential around the infield but have yet to put the results to match.

Weakness: Age: Conan was the only starting to finish with and ERA under 4 last season. At 36, he seems to have lost a lot of velocity on his pitches, and may struggle to go deep into games. Fate is 32. Jeff Wilson is also in his mid thirties. At the other end of the spectrum, their infield will be young and inexperienced. If the offense sans-Valentin struggles out of the gate then so too will the Statesmen.

Prediction: How the middle of the Dixie will shape up is pretty hard to predict. My gut says that Charleston's pitching staff takes another step back and they find themselves in third place, if not fourth.

[Reg]

Last year: Kentucky RF/G:4.2 (4th) RA/G:4.4 (3rd)

Kentucky always seems to be that team that everyone is sure they are going to break out and put it all together. They have a seemingly endless pipeline of talent from early years of woe, that are ready to show up and shine. But every year, they end up being just a piece or two short or they get hot too late or they run into some other team that is on a buzz saw tear. The young core of it's rotation returns, and they will be looking to young arms to shore up the rotation if they want to make any movement this year. Of course the biggest hole is the departure of William Petersen (and no that's not a fat joke), Petersen was finally healthy for a full year and put up a monster year. The team will need another great year from McDonald and hope that someone, maybe Ramon Gomez, will be able to fill Pork'n'beans shoes. They have a lot of young talent, but the question remains...will they produce?

Weakness: Need another solid offense producer, and solid back end rotation pitching. And that's if they want to stay where they are. If they want to improve, they need some monster years from unproven players.

Prediction:See Charleston...they are middle of the pack...will this be the year they break out? My gut says probably not, most likely because of a downgrade in offensive production.

[Reg]

Last Year: West Virginia RF/G: 4.5 (2nd) RA/G: 4.8 (4th)

If West Virginia would receive even a minimal help from their pitching staff, then they would be a playoff team. The offense is top flight and can score runs in bunches and in a hurry. Ronald Harmon is a superstar and even playing in the cavernous stadium he does at home, hit 33 home runs last year. Oliviera and Espinoza contributed as well last year and both are returning this year. Suarez had a very poor year, struggling through an injury, although most scouts believe he will be back to his old self to make the offense even better this year. Gone is Chris Wright and in his place returns an old familiar face in Jon Wood. He spent the past few years in the LRS and doesn't look to have missed a beat. However, the team failed to upgrade pitching despite shopping Suarez in exchange for top tier pitching.

Weakness: Pitching -- if Ayers can return to his old form, and Chris Renfroe can pick up where he left off...then the offense will give this team a fighting chance. However, the ranks are pretty thin throughout the rest of the rotation and bullpen.

Prediction: A team on which Harmon, Oliviera, Espinoza, Suarez and Wood all have average to better than average years, just might find themselves closer to second than fourth. This could also mean that people will mistake WV boxscores for football games.

[Reg]

Last year: San Antonio RF/G:3.9 (6th) RA/G:4.8 (5th)

San Antonio finished four games ahead of the Trendsetters last season, and three games behind West Virgina. And then the off season rolled around and the trading began. Gone was 1B Jarrod Wright and his 51.7 VORP. Not to mention Marrero, Page, and Garcia who all contributed last season. That being said none of this was a huge negative. The team was third in home runs in the IL but last in scoring. They could hit the long ball, but no one was on base to be knocked in. The players acquired or called up all seem to be bursting at the gill with potential and the majority of them are young. But this is a drawback. Most of them lack significant PEBA experience. Scouts see talent all over the place but the test of time will tell. Riley Cole seems like a great player to build around and this lineup could be elite if every player fulfills their potential at the same time.

Weakness: Any team that's not named the Featherheads, then insert pitching here. San Antonio brought in a couple of arms and are hoping that another year of experience will help some of their young arms, but it's hard to say. The heat in San Antonio really seems to mess with pitcher health as they often will have one or two pitchers on the DL.

Prediction: I have no doubts that better days are on the horizon for this team, but I do have my doubts that everything will come together for them this season. Players who haven't had consistent playing time in the bigs tend to be unpredictable, so if they got hot at the right time then they could challenge for third. They need their pitching to be just enough better than the rest of the Dixie to reach that mark though.

[Reg]

Last Year: New Orleans RF/G:3.9 (5th) RA/G: 4.9 (6th)

The Trendsetters offense got off to a terrible start last season averaging 3.1 runs through the first 52 games. The rest of the season after acquiring new offensive pieces like Morimoto and Brock Brett they averaged 4.4 runs per game. The offense should be better. Wright, and his 40 plus home runs will now DH. Manuel Serrano will roam in right field and if he is just average on offensive will far out pace last year's players. Spring Training dealt a pretty hefty blow as last year's best pitcher, McCallister sustained an injury that will have him out for the first two months of the season, plus some change. The Trendsetters hope that former Kalamazoo ace Er Hang can hold down the number one spot. Compared to most of the teams in the Dixie that will be trotting out young and untested talent the Trendsetters are relying on significantly older players to produce. Morimoto and Richardson are both playing in their 11th PEBA season, Hang 10, Brett 9th. Health will be a major factor in how well this team does in the upcoming season.

Weakness: Pitching -- the starting rotation was one of the worst in the entire league last season, and its hard to say whether it is improved at all. If anything the saving grace is the bullpen, which looks to be even stronger this season. Injuries -- several players on the roster are high to medium high risk to get injured at some point this season. Home run hitters and home runs tend to be streaky..if the team ends up on the wrong side of a streak could be trouble!

Prediction: The fact that 12 games separated second to sixth in the Dixie last year, makes me feel like it is wide open this year. The offense looks to be better than last year, but the pitching is a toss up, though I will say that it is hard to get much worse. Middle of the pack to last...here we come!

[Matt]

Last year: San Antonio RF/G:3.9 (6th) RA/G:4.8 (5th)

San Antonio finished four games ahead of the Trendsetters last season, and three games behind West Virgina. And then the off season rolled around and the trading began. Gone was 1B Jarrod Wright and his 51.7 VORP. Not to mention Marrero, Page, and Garcia who all contributed last season. That being said none of this was a huge negative. The team was third in home runs in the IL but last in scoring. They could hit the long ball, but no one was on base to be knocked in. The players acquired or called up all seem to be bursting at the gill with potential and the majority of them are young. But this is a drawback. Most of them lack significant PEBA experience. Scouts see talent all over the place but the test of time will tell. Riley Cole seems like a great player to build around and this lineup could be elite if every player fulfills their potential at the same time.

Weakness: Any team that's not named the Featherheads, then insert pitching here. San Antonio brought in a couple of arms and are hoping that another year of experience will help some of their young arms, but it's hard to say. The heat in San Antonio really seems to mess with pitcher health as they often will have one or two pitchers on the DL.

Prediction: I have no doubts that better days are on the horizon for this team, but I do have my doubts that everything will come together for them this season. Players who haven't had consistent playing time in the bigs tend to be unpredictable, so if they got hot at the right time then they could challenge for third. They need their pitching to be just enough better than the rest of the Dixie to reach that mark though.

I agree quite a bit with the assessment. I have a lot of trepidation about this team going into the season. While I'm hopeful for a step forward, particularly from a few players, I wonder if the team doesn't take a step back first.

I think the offense will be okay. Even though we gave up Renteria to bring in another young arm, I like the makeup of the offense, I think we have guys at the right age to finally produce. Robert Johnson has the potential to be electric at the top of our lineup. Guys like McKee, Bruce and Lopez all appear ready to produce. Cruz is a GREAT platoon player if he regains even half of his 2015 form. Even with Wright gone, there is power up and down the lineup. I feel confident we'll get 15+ HR out of every position except maybe catcher. And a few guys should far exceed that. Given they all stay healthy of course. But the other key is OBP, which was our achilles heel last year. We have to get guys on base, and hopefully that area has been improved upon this season.

Pitching wise, lots of concerns. Losing Flores and Hernandez in the spring really caused a total shuffle of what the original plan was for this season, and also caused us to go out and get two more arms (Gonzalez, J.Martin). The loss of Hernandez cost us our planned left handed setup man, which meant shuffling maybe our best starter Ed Stanley back to the pen to that left handed setup role. We had also played with Rosado in the rotation, but in the end he is the best we have for a closer and he seems to prefer the bullpen, where he has much more consistency. Our other late inning guy, Glenn Martin, is still a little young and struggles with control. We need him to grow up quick in the right handed setup role. If he does, the late inning guys will be a plus for us.

In the middle of the pen, John Miller should be okay as our middle inning lefty. Oliver Gonzalez needs lots of work and he should get it in the middle innings as the right handed option. Jonah Martin also needs lots of work and will get it as the mopup guy. All three guys could start, (in fact, only Glenn Martin on our staff is incapable of starting), but will bide their time in the pen. The middle innings guys could give me at least mild heartburn.

The rotation is the big question mark. As in 5 of them. Graves melted down in August and September last year. And his spring was just as awful. He had a good four months last season, but his struggles of late make him a big question mark. At one point the plan was to put him in the bullpen or deal him, but in the end he gets a chance to work through it in the rotation. Harris also weakened late in the season last year, hopefully it was just the extended workload. He wasn't quite the flaming turd Graves turned into during the dog days, but he did become a concern. Then we get to X-factor, Gomes, who can't ever stay healthy. Is this finally the year? Probably not. Fortunately we get Flores back in May, because we will probably need a replacement for Gomes by then. I doubt I will ever see a 30 start season out of the guy. He is becoming more suspect than prospect due to the frequent injuries. O'Reilly had a decent season in Aurora as a rookie, but it was all run support. The era and whip were nothing to brag about. Much like Graves and Harris, the hope is a year under his belt and he will improve. Finally, rounding out the rotation is long time minor leaguer Julio Torres, who pitched decently in a late season callup, and then suddenly blossomed in the spring, at least according to the scouting reports. We're hoping for lightning in a bottle there.

The goal is 78 wins. Can we get there? I don't know. The pitching staff in particular keeps me up nights. I'm comfortable with the long term outlooks on most of these guys, but in the short term there is probably some pain to be had. If everything goes right, we could finish 3rd. If all my worries come true, we finish last. For my money, the division is Florida and Kentucky at the top, and a complete crapshoot for the other four places.

[klewis]

Nice, fair assessment of the Dixie, Paul. I agree the Featherheads need some of their youngsters to step up in particular Medina and Cruz. Currently, I have higher hopes for Cruz than Medina. I think Cruz has a good chance to have good season this year. As for Medina, I guess I'll just be happy if he plays well defensively. I'm not sure if he will ever break out offensively. I almost forgot about Robert Robinson as well. He's definitely a wild card.

[Reg]

While opening day ceremonies are often full of frivolity and excitement, this years opening day at Frontier Park will combine a measure of solemness as well. The Trendsetters will be honoring recent retiree Jeff Cline, as they induct him as the first member of the Trendsetters Hall of Fame. Cline was the engine that ran the Trendsetters back to back trip to the Rodriguez Cup series, and will probably be in discussions for many years when bringing up catchers who can also hit. T-moto will be recognized for his record breaking home run year.

A dark cloud runs through the opening day festivities, as players will be wearing a patch in remembrance of Cooper Scott. Scott who was a former player, general manager, and friend of owner Jack Cobb, disappeared in an off-shore accident involving an exploding submarine. His body was never recovered and six months later, most people have come to the conclusion that it won't ever be found. A short video will be shown, and then sometimes nemesis, sometimes friend former NJ manager Tracy Evans will throw out the first pitch.

For some of these players Cooper Scott is the reason they are Trendsetters, and so it looks to be a very fun, but also a very emotional opening day.

[Hitmen]

While opening day ceremonies are often full of frivolity and excitement, this years opening day at Frontier Park will combine a measure of solemness as well. The Trendsetters will be honoring recent retiree Jeff Cline, as they induct him as the first member of the Trendsetters Hall of Fame. Cline was the engine that ran the Trendsetters back to back trip to the Rodriguez Cup series, and will probably be in discussions for many years when bringing up catchers who can also hit. T-moto will be recognized for his record breaking home run year.

A dark cloud runs through the opening day festivities, as players will be wearing a patch in remembrance of Cooper Scott. Scott who was a former player, general manager, and friend of owner Jack Cobb, disappeared in an off-shore accident involving an exploding submarine. His body was never recovered and six months later, most people have come to the conclusion that it won't ever be found. A short video will be shown, and then sometimes nemesis, sometimes friend former NJ manager Tracy Evans will throw out the first pitch.

For some of these players Cooper Scott is the reason they are Trendsetters, and so it looks to be a very fun, but also a very emotional opening day.

Throwing popcorn or a baseball?! Damn you Evans! Damn you for failing and then betraying me!