Fiscal Woes Lead to Hard, Harder Decisions
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger
November 14, 2029: Aurora, Colorado - With the 2029 PEBA season squarely in the rear view mirror (the Bears lost - YAY! the Evil Evas won - UGH!), the cold, hard reality on the 'colder than usual this time of year on The Front Range' has finally surfaced - Aurora is in a horrible financial bind - and getting out of that bind will be a hard one. To make matters worse, the merchandising folks at Aurora HQ and Golden Entertainment (yup, the parent company has always kept an eye on the financial picture of the ball club) agree - the pre-Christmas sales on Aurora merchandise (hats, T's, jersey's, coffee mugs, VR goggles) is significantly down, and the PEBA folks with the equivalent job told me, off the record, that National sales of Aurora-related, PEBA sanctioned, stuff is also down significantly, with Aurora falling from it's high perch to below Fargo, Neo-Tokyo and Kentucky - Kentucky of all places!
The off-shoot of this information? Local and National interest in the Borealis has taken a nose dive that one would expect to show itself at the turnstile. For a team that uncharacteristically went 39-42 at home - a losing record at Northern Lights??, one can extrapolate that last years drop in attendance (3,941,585), the first year in nine seasons not to top 4,000,000, is nothing but a sign of things to come.
Where the Borealis go, in shaping the 2030 roster for the 24th season of PEBA Baseball, is to be seen, but the bastard owner, Michael Topham, Jr has at least kept the budget mostly intact. After slashing it from the high of $250M in 2028 to last season's $210M, the bastard owner told his half-brother GM he had $206M for 2030 (and an expected payroll of $160M – the lowest since the 2023 ‘threepeat’ title, before everyone got paid) - and this was after Golden Entertainment released over $20M to cover the record balance loss of -$28M – Aurora’s second consecutive season finishing in the red – the only two seasons in the 23-year history of the franchise in which they have finished in the Land of the Red, and, of course, the Revenue Sharing Tax, which, with Aurora’s poor play and reduced earnings, was the lowest they’ve had since the Merger. But for small victories…
Looking ahead as the Boy Wonder GM strives to build the club for next season, it would seem imperative that he do two things: field a team that is successful and encourages fans into Northern Lights and do so cheaply as to maximize profits and get out of the red. How will they get into those two places without spending gobs of dough?
Let’s start with pitching, which is where Aurora’s titles really originate. First and foremost, thanks to what can only be called a fortuitous injury – although it may well have cost Aurora a title, Randy Smith’s injury that cost him two months at the start of the year, saved the Borealis $28M going into 2030, as that was the price of his vesting option. Smith had another stellar year, and the team is already in discussions with ‘Tugboat’s agent and rumor is that Smith is so happy to end his career with Aurora he’s willing to take a pay cut to do so – does ‘Tugboat’ feel like he ‘got his’? If that deep discount resembles half that vesting option, Aurora will have saved $14-$15M. One can only hope. Aurora was fortunate that Luis Nieves’ team option was for $13M, or $1M less than last year. That balances out, nicely, the large uptick in the contract inherited when Bartolo Esquivel was brought onboard ($12M last year, $20M in 2030). John Turner’s salary remains the same ($18.5M), though he does have an opt-out after this coming year. That puts Aurora an estimated $7M below where they may have been if ‘Tugboat’ vested (and he signs a cheaper extension for the rumored cost). Arguably no one spent more money on starting pitching that Aurora (West Virginia), and they may be on pace to spend the same in a year they need to cut expenses. Richard Neely, who was brought in from San Antonio to shore up the 5-spot in the rotation (mostly with poor results) is arbitration eligible and his arby estimate is just about that $7M cushion. That would be $72M on starting pitching alone – just a shade under last years $72.5M.
Then again, Aurora starters were 1st in the SL in ERA, the staff was 2nd in runs allowed, 2nd in WAR, 2nd in OAVG (.232), allowed the 3rd fewest HRs, and had the 2nd most K’s – it’s near impossible to be successful without strong pitching in the SL, what with the potent offensives in Shin Seiki, Neo-Tokyo, Crystal Lake and Fargo – not to mention the success of Bakersfield and Palm Springs in Aurora’s own division.
Balance. Find that happy spot of cost v. profit. Aurora is stuck with the contracts of Esquivel, Turner and (now) Nieves (stuck now, but cheap by market rate). The beauty, if I can call it that, of ‘Tugboat’s situation is he can sign a cheaper deal to stay, sign a QO, at the slightly higher than the rumors ($15.1M) or spur the Borealis and hit FA in search of a big payday – and it’s hard to imagine no one would take him on – giving Aurora at least a comp pick. Still… $72M out of the allotted $160M leaves us at $88M for the rest of the team.
Aurora’s pitching may have ranked third in the SL in ERA (3.25), but their bullpen finished 8th at 3.29, which is a testament to how good the starters were, how many innings they put in, and a solid part of Aurora’s failure to make it to the post-season. They walked 43% of the hitters in 34% of the innings, allowed a greater proportion of HRs – despite having a better OAVG. John Gray and Bob Burns were lights out, mostly, and Gray is under contract at $13M – a deal he signed when he showed he could handle closing. Burns, who was going to be arby eligible, has signed a 3-year, $13.8M per year deal, with a team option for a 4th – AND… that’s $26M of their remaining $88M, leaving Aurora with $62M for the remaining 19 players, but once again, Strong at the start, strong at the finish, but the guys in the middle – that’s where Aurora struggled in 2029.
Dan Field was bad. His K/BB ratio was 1:1, his WHIP was 1.83, teams hit .277 against him and his ERA was 5.02 – he is also arby eligible and I’ve been told the decision has already been made to non-tender him and let him go. Mike Monroe started 2029 strong, but was inconsistent down the stretch and is a free-agent. The good news is he’s asking for no raise, which is also bad news for the team which has sunk $26M into the ‘pen for two arms. Also bad news, he wants 3-years, and rumor is that is non-negotiable. Of the remaining relievers who began 2029 with the Borealis, Lando Lagerveld signed an extension at $2.75M with a pair of team options ($59.25M left). Aurora traded for three relievers at the deadline – trying to solve the mid-pen issues, and it kind of backfired. Kichibei Kamata had a recent extension signed, worth $1.122M, before he was traded and both Bob Erickson and Dan Ross are arbitration eligible. Erickson was shaky at first, but ended up with a decent run with Aurora, and his arbitration number estimates to be $800K, while Ross, who was simply bad, chalks in with an arby number of $1.1M – three arms worth $3M - and $56.25M left for 15 players.
Then there is Rob Imhoff. His injury history since he was drafted was bad, going into 2029 – and got simply worse with 6 individual declared injuries that cost him 15 weeks in 2029. He’s still on a league minimum contract, and that’s a plus, but can Aurora even trust him enough to keep him around, even as a bullpen arm? With it highly likely (and at this point of this accounting, highly irresponsible not to) Monroe will be allowed to walk, thus saving the $4.6M, Imhoff needs to revisit how he’s training and preparing for his job. Aurora needs to find a place to save money, and here’s where that starts. But Lando, Kichi, Erickson, Ross, and Imhoff doesn’t feel like it’ll put the fear of God in the souls of the Evil Evas.
When we turn our attention to the hitters, financial fat instantly rises from behind the plate. There was a time when Aurora envisioned ‘Fido’ and Domingo as the second coming of the Two-Headed Catcher, but neither seemed to hit consistently enough to warrant use at the DH position. Both are also arbitration eligible and with Castro’s estimate being $11M and Gutierrez $6.5M, that $17.5M drops our budget to $38.75M – with the Big Boys still to come. I understand the club is negotiating with both on an extension to avoid the unknown of arbitration. We may also see a potential trade here, as both are rated as quality starters.
On the infield, Jose Torres is still on his League Minimum, and he put forth a season that was a equal to his rookie campaign of 2028, hitting .265, with 22 HR, and 92 RBI (both lead the club). Teddy Loetzsch was arguably Aurora’s MVP, hitting .277 with 29-2B and 15-3B to go along with stellar defense that garnered some recognition for the All-Leather award at short. He is in his last arbitration year, and his estimate is at $6.825M. The Boy Wonder GM tells me there is an offer on the table to avoid arbitration. Roy Duke, the Rule 5 selection from West Virginia, had his moments, but mostly struggled as Aurora was intent on holding his rights. He’s on his League Minimum deal as well. The threesome add another $7M to the budget, bringing us to $31.75M – which doesn’t include Mike Britt (whose contract did not vest), and Derrick Dwyer (to be a FA) – both of whom want $20M, and Pablo Medrano, who has no interest in signing with Aurora at the moment. That leaves Aurora with hard decisions on the infield – do they risk offering a QO to Dwyer and Britt, with the hopes neither sign, in anticipation of picking up some Supplemental picks. As the math has no doubt shown, they can’t afford one of these to sign, much less both. Some media heads suggest that Britt is a risk, that at this stage of his career, he’d accept the QO – and I have to say, I’d agree with that analysis. With a collection of warm bodies at AAA and AA, Aurora will no doubt have to scrounge the garbage heap in search of potential replacements – not a way to build a winner.
The outfield also carries a QO guy – Tomas Flores, who hit .263 and stole 45 bases. Like Medrano, Tomas wants to test free-agency, so for Aurora, that feels like a safe QO. Paul Carlisle is possibly in the last year of his contract – he can opt out after 2030, and his current salary is $18M – leaving us at $13.75M, which brings us to the last of the main pieces – Nick Heath. Heath had a breakout year last season (2028), hitting .303 with 23 SB, but 2029 was even better. He hit .292 with 18 HR, 69 RBI and 30 SB – with just 3 errors in the outfield. He’s recently signed a 2-year deal, starting with a $5.24M salary for 2030, and as we count down the numbers, that leaves Aurora with $8.5M left over for six position players. Two of those currently on the roster are Howard Joyce and Ricardo Zamora, both on minimum deals ($7.5M). The third of the outfielders will likely be either Robert Hawkins, recently acquired in the first-ever Aurora-Shin Seiki trade, or 2028 1st round selection Stewart Arundale, and regardless of whom it may be, Hawkins and Arundale would bring a minimum contract to the table (and $7M left over).
$7M to fill-in the few holes left in this possible roster won’t go far. And if Dwyer or Flores accept a qualifying offer – or Britt, if he’s given one, suddenly this roster pops above the budgeted amount when what Aurora needs more than anything is prudence. And this doesn’t include the biggest possible free-agent: ‘Tugboat’, if he fails to sign the extension sitting on his table. At the end of the day, Aurora needs talent – and they still have some of that, but they also need as much draft capital as they can muster to improve their future prospects – and thus the value of qualifying offers. AND… they must somehow minimize the cost of being competitive enough to draw at minimum 3.5M fans into Northern Lights. That will probably still create their third straight financial loss, but they would still move closer to the black.
At the end of the day, the team Aurora fields on Opening Day is going to be a bit of a mystery as we pass through the off-season. The rotation will be intact. The infield is a big question mark. In the outfield, Joyce, Hawkins, Zamora or Arundale are the likely candidates to take over for Flores. Will that be enough? Aurora is paying now for their titles – now they will have to fight a fight many teams are familiar with – building back to competitiveness and getting out of the red. That fight begins now as we slide towards those pesky Arbitration meetings.
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
Something for Aurora to Give Thanks
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger
November 21, 2029: Aurora, Colorado - Tomorrow may be Thanksgiving, but today the Borealis give thanks for small things: 'Tugboat' will be back in the fold and leading the Borealis come Opening Day 2030.
Back in the end of September of 2023, as the Borealis were preparing to win their third straight (and last) title, Randy Smith signed his name to a massive 7-year, $171M deal, that ended with a pair of vesting options. The first, for 2029, vested as 'Tugboat' had a typical Randy Smith season. The last, for the 2030 season, failed to vest due to a two-month injury. A fortunate event for a team that will struggle to finish out of the red, and then they got even better news - 'Tugboat' wanted to finish his career in Aurora and put that desire to work. Earlier this week he signed a 2-year deal - with only one guaranteed, he is that confident of his abilities, for $13.5M per - a far cry from the $28M he was scheduled to make. By bringing back the 2-time Golden Arm, 5-time All-Star and 2022 PEC MVP, Aurora has-solidified a rotation that was looking like it was about to fall apart. It also gives the Borealis a piece that will help keep them competitive and bring fans into Northern Lights.
'Tugboat' who came to Aurora in a trade with San Antonio mid-year 2021, will be starting his 10th full season with Aurora. Over the course of the 10.5 seasons Smith is 129-48, with a 2.40 ERA - best of any starter, 1343 K, 229 BB over 256 GS (1617 IP). The 256 GS are second best in Aurora history, having past 'Sawmill' earlier this year, though he's likely to fall short of 'Train Arollin''s 326 and in his third to last start of the year he passed Kojima into second for IP, 641 IP short of Provost. He will pass Kojima on the win list, likely by mid-May.
But 'Tugboat' isn't the only member of the squad to sign a new contract, as a bevy of players signed deals in an effort to avoid arbitration. We've already highlighted previously the deals signed by Nick Heath (2-years, $11.98M), Bob Burns (4-year, $55M), and Lando Lagerveld ($2.75M for 3-years, but only one guaranteed), but following right behind Smith were catchers 'Fido' Castro ($10.5M) and Domingo Gutierrez ($6.25), and Teddy Loetzsch ($6.5M) all for one year, and Dan Ross ($1.1M) and Bob Erickson ($800K) - both 3-year deals, but each with only one guaranteed with a pair of team options each.
With these deals, Aurora is looking at a salary base of $161M, just over the $160M target point Boy Wonder GM Will Topham had in mind. That target includes a $6.5M 1-year extension for Richard Neely, as like the rest, Aurora tries to fend off arbitration. Neely is the last arby eligible player, as Dan Field has already been non-tendered. What these deals - and the $161M salary allotment, do not include is provisions for 'Big Whiskey', Derrick Dwyer, Tomas Flores, and Pablo Medrano. Medrano is not interested in negotiating with the team that made him the 25th overall pick in 2020 and he wants to test free agency. His performance is not worth a Qualifying Offer, so he will walk. Flores, who made $12M in 2029, also doesn't want to negotiate, but Aurora figures $15M is a reasonable deal, so they will make Flores a QO. Ditto Dwyer, who is asking for $20M over 6-years - both too rich, but like Flores, Dwyer's $13M 2029 salary makes a QO a reasonable pay raise. Should they both sign their offers, Aurora's cozy $161M becomes a 'not what we need or want' $191M. One suspects it's a ploy to get a couple of Supplemental Picks.
Not garnering a QO will be Mike Britt. 'Big Whiskey' just finished his 14th season with Aurora. He is the last remaining member of the 2019 championship and one of only a few who played on all four teams. His 1,910 games are the most in Aurora history - by a sizable margin. He leads Aurora in AB, hits, runs, HRs (363, with Carlisle second at 209) and RBI, at 1199 - Aurora is said to have the number crunchers looking for a misappropriated RBI. He has also walked the most and struck out the most - appropriate for the guy with the most games. It's almost certain Aurora will make a play for Britt in free agency, but it would have to be a cheapish deal. Management has made clear one thing - when the Big Tennesseean hangs them up, there's a managers position awaiting him.
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
Holiday Larder Bare During Harsh Front Range Winter
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger
January 19, 2030: Aurora, Colorado - The sub-arctic temperatures that have settled on The Front Range since the New Year rang in would be a fun metaphor for the Aurora Borealis offseason - if it weren't so darn apt. The folks running the team have done little this offseason in an attempt to fill out the team with major league talent that will replace that which has been lost. Of course, it'd help if there were some coin laying around.
Gone are 'Big Whiskey', Derrick Dwyer, Tomas Flores and reliever Mike Monroe. As of this morning, the three bats are still out on the market place - an exceedingly slow market place where hardly a big name, money guys has signed. Of the four, only Monroe has signed - a 3-year deal for a total of $14.4 M with The Evil Evas. So Aurora waits. With Dwyer and Flores nixing a Qualifying Offer, the Borealis look forward to a signing and a potential two Supplemental picks. Britt, who was not offered a QO, will net Aurora nothing.
And yet - despite the loss of key players, season ticket sales are up - significantly, projected to be as much as 25% - so Britt, Dwyer and Flores, feel welcome to wait, while that ticket money comes in - the fans don't need the reminder that 1/3 of the starting lineup has hit the road. It's a perplexing phenomenon at the moment, the team having nudge ticket prices just a buck and change, and yet the 5% decrease in cost seems to have done the trick. Sure, the re-signing of 'Tugboat' had to have been a great PR move, showing fans that this team still intends to compete, but Aurora will need every season ticket they can sell - the prospects for the year are not promising.
Aurora has signed a number of young free agents to fill in the roster down in Montserrat, and then they made a big splash - if splash is the word we can use when discussing the Rule 5 draft. They selected a team record three players (the previous high was 1, Roy Duke, last year off the West Virginia roster - the only Rule 5 guy Aurora had ever selected. The first guy was 23-year old pitcher Mark Powers, out of the Codger organization. Last season he was 1-4 with a 3.51 ERA at Edmonton (AA). With a 4:1 K:BB ratio and an arsenal that the coaches and scouts feel is probably 'as good as it's going to get' (Mauro Pacheco's words), Powers will get every chance this spring to fill the hole left behind by Monroe. AA pitching coach, 'Stork' Holbrook, who knows a bit or two about relieving, feels like Powers' stuff is very comparable to that of Mike Monroe.
Aurora's second Rule 5 selection was 3B Jose Ruiz, off the Kentucky roster. Ruiz is primarily a 3B, who can play a bit of 2B, with above average defensive skill. Ruiz hit .265 last season at Jefferson City (AAA) with moderate power (18-2B, 5 HR, in 358 AB). An above average contact hitter, where Ruiz' skill set may not fit in with the Aurora mold is his poor skills on the bases. At 31-years old, this feels like reaching for straws, especially with high defensive ability, high speed guy Duke back and likely to fill one of the back-up infield slots. The third guy Aurora picked - Also an above average defensive 3B, with similar offensive skills, is Steve Arnold, off Duluth's roster. A plodder - but one who knows how to run the bases, everything we said about Ruiz can be said about Arnold.
I find it unlikely that Ruiz and Arnold will stay with the club at the end of Spring Training, but I think it's highly probable that the 23-year old Powers will find his way onto the roster - possibly with the team eating his space for the right to hold onto a young arm. Roster politics are still two and a half months away.
Aurora did announce last month their coaching staff for the Montserrat Mystique, and it'll be a bit of a Whose Who for fans of the early years of the Borealis. Michael Burton, an 8-year, part-time Auroran (2012-2019), who was a career .281 hitter for the Borealis, has been named manager of Aurora's Rookie club. Playing back-up to some big names in the pre-championship years (Cory Pierce, John Knight and Matt Ferrell, to name a few) gave the hard-working, well-liked Burton the opportunity to study the game under some of the top managers in the game - including Juan Toro and Don James.
George Thompson, an original member go the Borealis, from that inaugural season, pitched 6-years for Aurora and was named the pitching coach for the Mystique. 'King' George was always considered a cerebral pitcher, and the Borealis are hoping that he can share those insights with their young, impressionable arms. Also an original member of the club is the Montserrat hitting coach, former-OF Chris Weaver. During his tenure with Aurora - perhaps cut short with the death of John Rodriguez, Sr and the arrival of Boy Wonder GM Will Topham, Weaver hit over .300 and was even more effective during the post-season. Like Thompson, Aurora went with a 'student of the game' in hopes that these player/coaches Bg League experience translates into a positive growth experience.
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
Something Better Than Nothing? Prado Winding Road Hits Aurora
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger
February 4, 2030: out in the Caribbean - This years Fan Extravaganza, in the past held on the Islands of Hawaii, finds us on a cruise ship heading for the small port of Little Bay, Montserrat, as the Aurora Organization is giving it's most loyal fans (and dare I say, most well off?) a peek at what's happening on this hidden jewel of the Caribbean as Aurora prepares for the inaugural Rookie League campaign and Golden Entertainment works towards fulfilling it's commitment to the Island Nation. Fans will stay in one of the new hotels and tour the soon-to-open Mystique Recording Studios - all of which will lead fans to believe that this whole Rookie League and Golden Entertainment investment deal has been in the works for longer than the past few months.
Speaking of working on things for longer than the past few months, lets talk about the Borealis roster. Last we left you, Aurora had a few holes in it's lineup, most notably on the infield with the departure of 'Big Whiskey' and Pablo Medrano. Aurora spent the entire season carrying 25-year old Rule 5, light-weight stick, Roy Duke, with the hope that he continues to have upward growth, but last years .223 leaves one to pause. The Borealis picked up another pair of Rule 5 infielders - 27-year old Steve Arnold and 31-year old Jose Ruiz, hoping to strike gold, but what Aurora has lacked this offseason is acquiring an established name to make the effort to fill that hole.
That hole has been, if nothing else, partially filled.
At Mango Monday Brunch today, Aurora Boy Wonder GM Will Topham announced to the collective that the team had come to terms over the night with soon-to-be 36-year old Hector Prado. Prado, a 10-year vet of PEBA campaigns, plus a 2-year stint in the WIL with Manchester and Kure (2024-25), can play anywhere on the infield, but his best position at this stage of his career may be first and to a lesser extent, second. His days playing on the left side seem finished.
A graduate of Notre Dame - class of 2015, Hector was the 5th pick in the 3rd round (60th overall) by Canton. He played in 426 games for the Longshoremen over 4 seasons, but his .238 average was sufficient for them to not offer him arbitration and thus he became a free agent and signed a 1-year deal with Amsterdam. The Lions weren't too pleased with the right-handed infielder - despite hitting .314 in 37 games, so he was waived and claimed by West Virginia. In limited action with the Alleghenies (19 games) he continued to hit .300, but the following year (2023) - .210 after 56 games (after signing a preseason extension) and he was allowed to walk after the season - where he signed a deal with Manchester to move to the WIL. The Maulers penned him to a 3-year deal, but they released him after just one year (even though he hit .278 - I bet Aurora would accept that).
Prado's journey a winding road enough for you? Good - because there is more...
After his release from Manchester, he signed a 2-year deal with Kure - his third consecutive multi-year deal that would be cut short, this time by Prado himself, as after hitting .291 as a full-time starter (for the first time), he declined an option in his contract with sights on returning to the PEBA. Early in Spring Training 2026 he latched back on with Amsterdam, where he continued to be a full-time starter and hit .268. Not good enough to earn a respectable extension, he turned to Kentucky for a 2-year deal at $3.6M a year - his biggest contract yet! He rewarded the T-breds with a .308 year as a starter before dipping in 2028 to .252 and finding himself on the market - again. The Alleghenies signed him - again, to a league minimum contract, and he rewarded them with a .384 average over 43 games last season. He even managed to be named the IL Player of the Week for the first week of August. The Alleghenies let him go - perhaps with the hope of bringing him back on a minimum deal, but then Aurora's coffers begin to fill with Season Ticket money and there was just enough expendable income to offer the journey man a 1-year deal at $1.5M.
PHEW!
Prado is not going to knock the pants off anyone. He has a propensity to strike out - which no doubt will frustrate management (and fans) who abhor the K. He does do better against lefties, which suggests a potential platoon situation. Where that may come from, I don't know - but word spreading around the ship late last night was Mikey, Jr and the Golden executives were going to dole out a little extra cash for payroll, so perhaps there might be a few more players on the come. For now, let's join Hector Prado on the next turn on his winding road.
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
Spring Questions with Few New Answers?
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger
March 3, 2030: Grand Junction, Colorado - One of these years the Aurora Borealis will figure out that it's actually just as cold on The Back Range, at times, as it is on The Front Range this time of year. And when Spring training opens with snow on the ground, it just makes everyones job harder. Not that this years group of Borealis don't need the work - this group has their work cut out for them in what promises to be a highly challenging Desert Hills race! With Bakersfield having a busy offseason retooling (and still Neil Maes on the FA market) and Palm Springs a year older with a crew that was awfully good in 2029 (though 'Terror' has moved on) - even Reno has been active, recently bringing in Adrian Fuentes and Ray Lambert to shore up both the offense and defense, one would hope Aurora would have responded.
Yup. We got Hector Prado. And Robert Hawkins. And three Rule 5 guys. Awesome sauce.
And to really draw fans across the divide, and the Utah wasteland to Aurora's Spring Camp, this will be the first spring in at least 15-years in which the 'Big Tennesseean' has not been patrolling 3B for Aurora. Mike Britt has spent the offseason by his phone, and unemployed he continues to sit. There are rumors... rumors that his phone rang once and it was Aurora calling... rumors it rang twice and it was West Virginia offering a 'generous offer you can't turn down' - one which probably started with $3M for 2030, at best... rumors that family are trying to convince him it's time to hang it up - but then you look at his bottom line, with 37 HR (to reach 400) and just 1 RBI (to reach 1200) needed to reach milestones few have managed (only three have hit 400, though James Heard and Don Mercer are in the same area code as Britt; Only 4 have reached 1200 RBI, with Mercer and Brad Davis likely to do so this year - Mercer likely before June 1) one can understand his desire to play at least one more year. But, unless Aurora has offered him a contract and he decides to sign said contract - and there's nothing other than rumor to suggest so, the 'Ghost of Big Whiskey' will continue to man third, and leave big shoes to fill.
So lets take a gander on what the team has this spring and how the roster may shake out.
Starters
When 'Tugboat' gladly signed a 1-year deal (with a team option), before the tendering of a pricier Qualifying Offer, after the PEC closed, Aurora gave a deep sigh of relief, as there was one less hole to fill. Smith had injured his shoulder two weeks into the season and was out for 8+ with the recovery and rehab. His return was fantastic and gave the team the confidence that he would be good to go in 2030, but fear was great that he'd be swept up on the open market. 'Tugboat' will turn 37 during the Spring, so it's perhaps it will be a good thing if Aurora doesn't push him much during the season. It's doubtful he will go 200 IP this season, as he's done in the past. It's even conceivable this will be his last year - at least here. A good showing on his part and a poor season by Aurora may even precipitate a trade (yes, we know - we've heard that tale before).
John Turner, in his second full season with Aurora, was stellar once more in 2029, and in his first two seasons on The Front Range he is 25-15, with a 2.48 ERA, 402 K in 391 IP over 64 GS. Basically, he's continued to be the bull he was for New Orleans before signing a 5-year deal with Aurora. For Aurora, they are in a tough position with Turner - his $18.5M salary continues for the next two seasons, but after this year he has an opt out, and the team has options for both the remaining years. JT will be 32 in December, and it's hard to imagine the team not wanting him back for 2031. What is the big question, will he want to?
Will he want to will be the chorus for Bartolo Esquivel after 2031 - assuming he lasts that long, as his $20M a year salary for next season is tied to a team option, and his $23M 2032 salary is also tied to a player option (as well as team). Esquivel, a Greater Denver resident (Johnstown) had an outstanding first full year with Aurora, going 13-11 with a 2.58 ERA in 33 GS and he lead the SL in strikeouts with 210. Like Turner (and Randy Smith, before last year) Bartolo is a bull on the mound, pitching over 200 IP the past four seasons, and 6 of the past 7 (he had 192 and 191 in his first two pro years). Control will continue to be Esquivel's foe, as he's consistently averaged 3 walks per 9-innings.
Luis 'Chief' Nieves started to show signs of age last year. His WHIP was up slightly, due to his walks being up slightly, and his strikeout rate declined. He signed a 4-year deal after the 2026 season, which had a team option after 2029, which the team - fearing they might lose 'Tugboat', picked up. He is in the last year of his contract (at a reasonable $13M), but it seems unlikely the Organization will offer the 35-year old an extension. As a fourth man in the rotation, he should be perfect. As long as the top three remain healthy and productive, any further, obvious slide in Nieves' skill will be mitigated... somewhat.
The bigger question (for now) in the rotation centers around the 5th spot, and which Richard Neely the team will get. When Aurora traded for the 27-year old, they sent minor leaguers Bob Pinkson, Theo Holder and Mario Flores to San Antonio, expecting the 3.00 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in return. Instead they got an arm which was stingy with the gopher ball, but suddenly every ball in play seemed to be destined for a hit. His per 9 walk numbers remained the same (1.7) and his upped his strikeouts by nearly a full K (to 6.0), but he just seemed to have some bad luck each time out. Aurora hopes his luck will change, and more of those balls in play find gloves.
Aurora has a number of names that they could trot out to fill the 6th rotations spot - and be the 'next man' should injury take it's toll - Jesus Solis and Hugh 'Mister Mister' Jones come to mind quickly as the guys who've filled in the most over the past couple of years, but a name to watch is John Gillard - a 27-year old Canadian who toiled in the Toyama system for a number of years and signed a minor league deal with Aurora last year. For a horrid Thornton club he posted a 7-13 mark, but a fine 2.76 ERA in 28 starts (166 IP). Teams hit .201 against him last season. He doesn't look to be the most dominating guy on the mound, but he certainly may be one of those guys who just finds ways to get outs. He will be one of the guys to watch as we move through the spring.
What do we know about the Borealis rotation? It's primarily set with guys that have, mostly, a world of experience. They are also, mostly old (average age of 31, if we include Neely, 34 if it's just the top four guys) and at anytime, the natural progression will take place - and that includes injury. Was last years early season shoulder issue a sign of things to come for 'Tugboat'? Who knows. What we also know is looking at the Organizational depth, Jones and Solis have had but modest success over the past two seasons, Gillard is an unknown, and Imhoff (scheduled, for now, as a bullpen arm) has his own, well documented issues. Down at AA we have Armando Batista, Henry Cluett and Pedro Morales - all showing potential, all at least a full season (or two) away from making an impact. None of who will be on the spring roster. What we don't know, with age and all it's attendant side-effects, is what will happen if the team needs arms. This team cannot financially afford to bring in established, well paid pitchers to fill multiple voids. After two hard financial years, there's a chance the team will be 'back in black' in 2030. Maybe, if things go well, they can make such a move at the deadline - but certainly not in April/May.
Bullpen
The backend of the 'pen is arguably the team's strong point. With Bob Burns signing a 4-year deal (three plus a team option), he'll be here through 2033. In 85 games for Aurora, since arriving from the Calzones, he has a 1.06 ERA, struck out 145 in 101.2 IP, walked 13 and allowed 3 HR. He also had 39 saves last year as he took over the closer role. John Gray, the other closer-turned 8th inning set-up guy, is 3-years older (he'll turn 33 just shy of Opening Day), lost his job not so much over his three-consecutive 40-save seasons, but his knack to give up the long ball (31 HR in the past 4-years) and excessive blown saves (some of which may have cost Aurora shot's at more titles). Gray, who didn't take his frustrations onto the mound with him, was mostly outstanding as always (1.53 ERA, 100 K in 76.2 IP), but has already told the team he will be looking for a new home for 2031. Does that make him excellent trade bait down the line. How can the answer be anything but yes?
Moving to the front end of the 'pen, Aurora traded for three bullpen arms as the 2029 deadline rolled around and instead of getting quality arms giving them quality innings, they got a mash-up of ineffectiveness. Dan Ross (2.14 over 46 IP for Toyama) managed just 14 IP for Aurora and posted an 8.36 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP, with balls put in play missing gloves at a .395 clip while hitting .328 against the former-Win-D. He allowed 4 HR. Kichibei Kamuta (2.14 in 42 IP for Okinawa) threw 17 IP for Aurora and posted a 5.29 ERA, with a somewhat better 1.35 WHIP, with .333 BABIP (.302 OAVG). Bob Erickson, whom they brought in early from Canton, started very poorly, before settling in and finishing with a 3.03 ERA in 34 appearances. His WHIP of 1.16 was a reflection of his 3.3 BB/9 as teams hit only .209 against him. Also from the acquisition pool is 23-year old Mark Powers, whom Aurora snagged from Palm Springs in the Rule 5. Drafted out of Wilson Classic HS in the 1st round of the 2025 draft, Powers saw minimal work over three seasons at Lana'i City (13 GS and 30 appearances), before spending two-seasons at National City (A), where in 2028 he started 22 games with a 2.90 ERA. Last year at Edmonton (AA) he spit time in the rotation and the 'pen, with a 3.51 ERA. Powers will need to make the team out of spring training or head back the the Codgers minor leagues. Aurora was able to justify keeping Roy Duke (last years Rule 5 'gem'), based on speed and defense - you can't quite say the same about a pitcher. With excellent fastball and sliders, and what coaches think can be improved control, Powers just might get a shot.
Two returning members of the 'pen will be Lando Lagerveld and the aforementioned Imhoff. Lagerveld has been a bit of an enigma. He was thrust onto the ML roster sooner than they'd have liked, and he's had a few major injuries which have slowed his development, but at 29, one would think we are seeing the Lando that we have - and that's enigmatic. Blessed with a fine repertoire of pitches, he finds himself at times just grooving a pitch that gets hit like most mistakes do - out of the park. He allowed 12 HR last season, a big uptick, which may explain his .60 rise in ERA - particularly with a drop in WHIP and OAVG. Aurora continues to have faith in Lando - in less than stressful (read: late inning) situations, and signed him to a potential 3-year deal (there are a pair of team options) before free agency. He seems a lock to be there opening day. Like Lagerveld, Rob Imhoff is a former-1st round pick, but he just can't stay on the field. Aurora was really hoping that he'd rise to the level of expectation they had upon drafting him, but injury has kept him off the field. The team has turned to a philosophy that perhaps frequent, shorter stints will serve his arm better, in a counter-intuitive manner. Is his days of pitching as a starter finished? Maybe not, but one would suspect that Aurora would go through Gillard, Jones and Solis before turning to Imhoff.
Lastly, there are three minor league arms in camp, looking from the outside in, hoping to impress and win a spot - at the expense of an existing roster spot holder who would really have to bomb. Volmer van der Loo - drafted as a starter (and one who did somewhat ok), turned reliever last year, got a cup of coffee in 2029 and looked bad. in 7.2 IP he allowed 9 H, 7 R and 4 HR. Did I say he looked bad? Brandon 'Catfish' Waters got a shot last spring and what he didn't do is blow the socks off the joint, and all he got for his efforts was a promotion to AAA - and unless he finds better control (and scouts aren't impressed), AAA may truly be his last stop. 23-year old Rafael Benetiz has crazy stuff - with a nasty fastball and splitter coming at you at near 100-MPH, but where it's going is anyones guess. But last year, he managed at AA, with a 1.50 ERA, a WHIP of 0.90 and when teams put balls in play, they did so only at a .188 rate - teams hit .138 against him. He might be the one to watch in the 'pen this spring. Coaches aren't overly thrilled about his control, but if he can keep the walks per-3/9 IP, and not over 4 (4.1 in 2029), he just might find a roster spot.
What we know about the bullpen is this: a lead heading into the 7th/8th inning is a lead that will likely be held - and a 9th inning lead likely will be a W. The question becomes this: with a rotation that likely will take games into the 6th and 7th inning, can this 'pen hold a lead they are given so that Gray and Burns can bring home the win, and can they keep deficit's close so that the less than exciting offense - an offense that has lost a power bat and not replaced it, can give it a go of a late comeback. That's the task of the mid-reliever, right?? It will really boil down the the three trade acquisitions of last year - and this bullpen averages 5-seasons of experience, so there are expectations that they will be expected to meet. That's a lot of likely's and a lot of expectations.
Catchers
It looks like Aurora's hopes for big offensive prowess from both their catchers has fizzled - that the grand experiment of using one as a full-time DH has come to an end. What we may well see is a platoon behind the plate, or simply a going with the hot hand phenomenon. Manny Castro hit double-digit HRs for the 4th straight season as Aurora's primary backstop, but after a hopeful .296 average in 2028, he slumped to .245 in 2029 - which probably accounts for the .100 drop in his SLG (a career best - above A Ball, .457 in 2028, .359 last year), along with a career worst (just ahead of his A Ball career worst) .288 OBP. Aurora needs more from 'Fido'. Ditto for Domingo Gutierrez. After a promising .336 in 2027 - which prompted an uptick in the 'Two-Headed Catcher' discussions, and a benching of Castro, Domingo has see his average drop over the past two seasons. Gutierrez doesn't have the power potential - nor the speed of Castro, but what they share is an excellent defensive job behind the plate. And that defensive effort will continue to keep both relevant and employed on The Front Range - for now.
Not exciting is what Aurora has at the next levels. Jorge Alonso and Yato Shirane both play behind the plate well enough to warrant their inclusion on the 40-man roster, but neither have shown they can hit their way out of a paper bag. It's really that simple, and I'd be shocked if either got more than a small handful of starts this spring, much less more than 10-15 AB. Barring injury. This is by far the weakest spot in the organization - outside the major league roster.
What we know about the catching spot is this: We'd expect at least average production from 'Fido' and Domingo, and a excellent work behind the plate. Beyond that... X...
Infield
Two starters will be returning from the 2029 squad - SS Teddy Loetzsch and 1B Jose Torres. Gone is the well publicized Britt and the less mentioned Pablo Medrano - both who remained unemployed. Since winning a starters role on the infield, Teddy has been mostly a solid offensive performer, hitting over .270 in 3 of the past 4 seasons - two of which he led the SL in triples. For the defensive prowess he gives them on the field, the offense he provides - good power numbers, if not HRs, and low strikeout numbers, can be viewed as outstanding. It's all a matter of prospective. Torres, who won the 1B job out of spring training in 2028, has been a pretty consistent performer after being drafted 27h overall in 2024. It took him a couple years of pro ball to figure it out, but he's hit .268 and .265 with 23 and 22 HR and 74 and 92 RBI (last year) in his two major league seasons. Would Aurora like to see him strike out less (96 last year) and walk more (23 and 28 over the past two seasons) - of course they would, but that doesn't seem to be in his DNA. They'd also like to see him play better defense, but with a lack of a better 1B option, he may stay there - then again, what happens with the OF roster spots, may dictate whether he's placed in the DH role.
After toiling about the world after graduating from Sarasota High in 2022 (stops with Charleston, Kure, Kuwana and West Virginia), Roy Duke finally got a chance in 2029 after being a Rule 5 pick by Aurora off the Allegheny roster. Liking his defensive flexibility on the infield and excellent base running skills, Aurora bit the bullet and kept him rostered for the year. He had moments, but in 74 appearances (70 GS) he hit only .223 - but what would you expect for a guy who had 8 games above A Ball. Despite the low average, he did have an OPS of .544 - not bad, and stole 18 bases in 20 attempts. Lacking a better option, he'll go into spring training as the starter at 3B - but Jorge Soto, Suezo Kato, and Steve Arnold (Rule 5 draftee from Canton) will all get fair shots of making the 25-man roster and the job at 3B. This is an open contest.
2B will go to free agent signee Hector Prado - for now. Prado's journey is a winding road, but when given a chance, he's performed pretty well - including a .384 average in 125 AB at West Virginia last year. He's 36-years old and his once excellent defensive skills are down to 'if he can get to the ball'. I really he's best suited for 1B - if Torres moves to DH and someone else shows they deserve an infield starting spot.
Soto, a 2024 7th round pick, had showed some pop and promise at A and AA in 2026-20, hitting mid-.270 with 61 HR and driving in 169, but last year at Thornton he struggles and ultimately found more time on the bench as he managed just .195, 4 HR and 16 RBI. Aurora hopes that was just a level shift, as his previous moves up had shown first-year declines - and he only had the 1-year at Gatineau. Kato, likewise, showed promise in 2026-27, with 35 HR and 122 RBI, but has been a flop the past two years at Thornton. What Kato has going for him that Soto lacks is a well rounded defensive game, but it's hard to imagine either making a name for himself this spring. Steve Arnold, on the other hand, spent time in Yuma in 2027-28 and Canton last year and has managed a career .257 in 417 AB, He's struck out more than you'd like, and he has the patience of a mayfly. He's not stealing any bases and plays a decent third, so he may have an outside chance of making the roster - or be sent packing for central Ohio once more.
Also on the spring roster is Arthur Bonsall, who has mostly struggled at most levels as he's moved up the food chain, and Jose Ruiz, the third of Aurora's three Rule 5 pick-ups. Ruiz is an interesting grab. He plays a decent 2B and 3B and has had a mixed bag of ML experience. He hit .307 for Kentucky in 114 AB in 2025, and in 2027 he hit .276 in 185 AB for Reno (no word on how he fared, if at all, against Aurora). Like Arnold, he has the patience of an adult insect with a life expectancy of a few hours, but he is at least, like Arnold, an interesting option who will get enough playing time during the spring to impress the folks who make the decisions.
What we know about the infield is this: It's wide open. One hopes that shortstop is at least taken care of, manned by the defensive prowess of Loetzsch, who will give us quality offense, and the Torres will continue to show, if nothing else, to be consistent with his performance. After that? Who knows. It's not a far-fetched outcome that three Rule 5 guys (Duke, Arnold and Ruiz) play prominent roles on this team. Man... this club has fallen a long ways...
Outfield
This is where things actually get interesting. There's Paul Carlisle, entering his 11th season - and 10th consecutive as the starting RF for the Borealis. That is important to note as he has a player option on his contract after the season, and his salaries for the next two years are at $16M - $2M less than this year. Paul had hit 20 or more HR in 6 straight seasons before he fell just shy, at 19, last year. He's consistently been among the leading vote getters for the Royal Raker. He has been one of the most consistent hitters in all of PEBA (.286 career), has walked more than struck out (716-704) and has swiped approximately 3 of every 4 bags he's attempted - 161 in all (42-49 the past two seasons); not bad for a moderately slow dude. He is also Aurora's best offensive player.
CF Nick Heath, the likely heir apparent to the position, now that Tomas Flores has fled to what he hopes is 'greener pastures', has come along nicely in his first two full seasons on The Front Range. He hit .303 in his rookie, 2028 season and .292 last year - while more than doubling his HR total (8 in 2028, 18 in '29). He's also a speedster (30 SB in 39 attempts last year), while playing mostly excellent defense. Like Carlisle, there's no question he will be in the Opening Day line-up.
The real question is, who will play in LF? Aurora has a bounty of young options. The first is the 'incumbent' player, Howard Joyce. Part of the 'Fudd' deal, Joyce has had moments - he did hit .303 in 21 games in 2028, and although he managed just .248 last year as Aurora gave him an extended tryout, he did hit .345 in a brief AAA stint. Aurora likes his corner OF defense, and the fact that he doesn't strike out much. Competition for the other outfield spots is tight, but he certainly warrants a close look. Another holdover is former-1st round pick Ricardo Zamora. Expected to be the high average, power, speed guy that 'Fudd' never became for Aurora, Zamora has failed to do so in pretty much the same vein. After hitting .290 with 21 homers in 2027 at Thornton, he's struggled in extended time with Aurora the past two seasons - he career totals at Aurora looking weak: .214, 14 HR (nearly half that in April of 2028). At least he's got the stolen base part right: 49-59. But, he's still young - if we call 26 still young.
Then there is Robert Hawkins, acquired from Shin Seiki for Short A pitcher Greg Bates. Hawkins is an excellent fielder (though a somewhat weak arm), with great speed, but will he hit enough to earn a spot on the 25-man roster, much less the starter. He hit .260 at Kyoto, and poor to that he hit .303 for Kure of the WIL in 2027. The coaches really love Hawkins attitude and effort - but they fear he'll just be shy of a productive hitter. I guess that's what spring training is for.
We could go on about Dusty Gillespie and Joey Walker, but aside from a brief 12 game stint at AA last season for Walker, neither have really shined during their minor league career with the Borealis. But one guy who bears watching is 2028 1st round pick Stewart Arundale. He hit at Short A. He hit at A and AA, before showing signs of being overmatched at AAA last year (though he did manage a .252. He has frequently been compared to Pedro Ferringo, and like Ferringo, he's going to be given a chance to win a roster spot while working on his LF defense. Ideally, Aurora would like to have the hard choice and send him to AAA for a little more seasoning, but they would likewise be happy if he forced their hand and earned a roster spot - that's how desperate for offense this team is.
What we know about the outfield is this: There appears to be 6 major league caliber outfielders on the spring roster. Will they keep 6 for the 26-man roster. What we don't know - and what might be the most interesting competition on the club, is who will be the third starting outfielder. And who might be the DH, as it' seems likely that will come from the outfield (barring a tectonic shift on the infield, sending Torres into that spot). The early eyes will be on Arundale and Hawkins, players the coaches view as the most interesting young players in camp.
Spring Outlook
Don't look for a lot of wins. Aside from that, it's for the most part a combo of who will earn their way off the roster (especially the pitchers) and who will earn their way on (especially the infield, and to a lesser extent, the outfield). Assuming Aurora keeps 12-pitchers and 14-hitters, how do you see this roster shaping out? Early prognosticators have Aurora finishing at 86 wins, and out of the playoffs - which, if true, would be the first time in history they failed to make the post-season in consecutive years. From my perspective, that's a likely outcome. Frankly, I think a less that .500 finish is a likely outcome.
Time to grab a shovel and start shoveling snow off the infield - as I said in the beginning of this piece - one of these days...
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
Borealis Moves Aim at Depth
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger
March 11, 2030: Grand Junction, Colorado - The Borealis have marched through their first spring week with a bit of promise of success, posting a 4-3 record, with a number of players posting solid, early stats. Despite the team into it's spring schedule, they have not given up at shaping the roster further, and for the owner and GM's dead father's birthday they signed some potential help. Be it depth or lineup help is to be seen.
First, in the late evening of the 6th, Aurora GM Will Topham announced a minor league deal, bringing in 2B Felipe Lopez, a 7-year vet of Azuza out of the Dominican League. Felipe is a career .269 hitter who has a tremendous eye that translated into a career .325 OBP. Lopez has good speed and is a savvy baserunner that has translated into a SB rate of 3:1. A hard-working, high-baseball IQ guy, he is known for his exceptional defense at second - where he was a 3-time Glove Wizard, where the only complaint scouts have is his arm strength - often not a serious issue for second-sackers. One would assume that Lopez, is not expected to be the starter at second, but to certainly compete with the infielders in camp for a position on the 26-man roster and possibly be the man. He won the LDBI title twice while with Azuza.
Looking at players in camp who are battling for a second base job, Jose Ruiz (a Rule 5 player) is hitting .294, Roy Duke is batting .182 and Suezo Kato is 1-11. Hector Prado, who is almost assured his roster spot, is hitting .286, so there seems to be room for Lopez to sneak on to the 26-man roster.
The next morning, March 7, The Boy Wonder GM was back to the podium with news that CF Harry Hutchins, formerly of Canton, signed a potential 2-year deal worth $2.2M per year. The contract has mutual options for 2031. Hutchins is a 2-time All-Leather CF (2025 and 2029) and last year was named an All-Star for the first time, hitting .252, with 5 HR, 54 RBI and 49 SB in 55 attempts. Hutchins was a 4th round pick by Gloucester in 2019, and after serving time in the Fishermen minors, was picked 5th overall in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft by the Longshoremen. With Canton he's hit .258 and has an impressive 186 steals in 221 attempts. His excellent speed and defense alone make Harry a natural replacement for what former-CF Tomas Flores (who has yet to sign a contract with anyone) gave them.
The acquisition of Hutchins adds a twist to what was to be one of the more interesting position battles on the squad. With a potential starting outfield of Heath, Hutchins and Carlisle, the battle for the final two slots (and a possible third) got tighter. Howard Joyce, who spent most of 2029 with the Borealis, is hitting .364, while Ricardo Zamora, who has frustrated management in the past with his poor numbers, is hitting .375. Of the outfielders expected to compete for a roster spot, Robert Hawkins (acquired in trade from Shin Seiki) is struggling at .125. Even the expect, likely, demotions - Joey Walker and Dusty Gillespie, are doing well, hitting .625 and .333, respectively. If nothing else, with Heath, Hutchins and Hawkins, Aurora has a 3H group of excellent defensive center fielders.
It's open to debate if these moves make an impact, but if nothing else, they've improved the defense some - and for a team that will likely rely on the pitching, again, you can never have enough defense.
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
Spring Shapes Roster With Expectation, Surprise
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger
March 31, 2030: Grand Junction, Colorado - Aurora finished the spring winners of 5 of 6, and in doing so, they finished the spring at 13-11, tied for the 5th best record in the SL (Duluth and Okinawa). That's something, and certainly better than the sub-.500 ball they've been plagued with. It's spring, yes, and all of this means little, but since we take spring results as a basis for projecting and creating hope, finishing second in the Desert Hills, after last year's playoff-less, 3rd place finish, is something to be hopeful for.
There were definitely surprises for Aurora this spring, bringing hope - just as there were disappointments to fluff off with a dismissive 'it's only spring training', so let's take a look at the 2030 Spring storylines and how the roster will shake out.
Outfield
Nowhere on the roster was their more real interest, and intriguing results, than the outfield, and we can look no further than the two bodies who were not on the Aurora roster this time last year - nor at the end, for that matter. Let's start with the team's leading hitter this spring, 2028 34th overall selection, 23-year old Stewart Arundale. The RF who scouts have compared to another late first round selection many years ago (Pedro Ferringo, 29th overall in 2019) hit .377 with 3-2B and a triple. He also stole four bases. Stewart was drafted after hitting .322 in four seasons at Cambridge and promptly moved from Short A to AA in his pro debut (along the way hitting .273, .299 and .290 respectively). Last season he played a third of the year at Gatineau, hitting .323 and the latter 2/3 at Thornton, where he struggled before ending the year at .252 - to which Aurora felt a promotion during September was pushing things a bit. Aurora had planned on giving Arundale a long look this spring, then sending him back up the I-25 to Thornton, but considering the comparisons, Aurora continues with the hope that Stewart Arundale is Pedro Ferrigno's doppelganger. Ferringo had all of 504 AB before making his Aurora debut - and never looked back; Stewart has 627. Aurora would be very happy if his career matched the .317, 243 SB that Ferringo posted in his 1028 games on The Front Range. And like his potential doppelganger, Aurora has slated Arundale to start at DH.
The other big outfield surprise is free agent CF Harry Hutchins, formerly of Canton. The 2029 All-Star signed with Aurora early in spring training and looked solid at the plate - hitting .353, with a pair of doubles and a triple - and 4 SB of his own. The 28-year old New Yorker hit .252 for Canton last year, but in 2028 he hit .299 in an injury plagued year. Actually, injuries are going to be a concern for the Borealis, as the last three seasons, in particular, have been filled with nagging injuries. Hutchins will split time in CF with Nick Heath, and Aurora is looking for Hutchins to replace the defense that Tomas Flores gave them, and match - if not improve upon their previous CF's 2029 numbers. That would seem doable.
Looking at the returning players, starters Nick Heath and Paul Carlisle struggled. For Carlisle, who hit .164, a poor spring is not unusual, as he has mostly seen his season's start on a slow note - but in the end, someplace north of .280 with north of 20 HR would be the Carlisle norm. Heath, who hit .220, and shared the team HT lead with Carlisle at 2, is coming off two solid seasons to begin his Big League career (.303 and .292), and saw his HR total more than double last year. The spring performances here certainly won't bother Aurora management much, and you can certainly pen them both into the starting lineup.
With the trade and performance of Hutchins, and the surprising work from Arundale, coupled with the guaranteed spots to Carlisle and Heath, the question became a matter of one or two more roster spots for the outfield on the Opening day roster. Howard Joyce had a solid spring, hitting .310, with 2-2Bs and a homer. Coupled with outstanding corner defense, a tendency to put the ball in play, and experience at the Big Leagues, and you have the formula for making the squad - leaving (potentially) on the outside looking in, Ricardo Zamora. The 29th overall pick in 2025, Zamora has struggled to show constancy at the plate, after his outstanding April 2028. He hit a mediocre .256 this spring, plays solid corner D, and has outstanding speed (49-59 SB at Aurora). Keeping Zamaora means 6 roster spots for the OF and only 5 on the infield (unless they keep only 12 pitchers). After a dismal start in 2029, Ricardo was shipped to Thornton, where he was even more dismal - as a matter of fact, he has hit under the Mendoza Line at AAA each of the past two seasons - so it seems clear its the major leagues or bust for Zamora.
The one disappointment on the outfield front was the play of Robert Hawkins, formerly of Shin Seiki. Dealt to the Borealis in a November deal for Short A pitcher, Greg Bates, Aurora was excited about his potential - a great baserunner, solid CF defense, and a decent resume during his time with Kure in the WIL. Hawkins came to camp with both sides expecting him to compete for the starting job - but then Hutchins was signed, so perhaps a little emotional depression stepped in with interference. Hawkins will head back to AAA, and at 26, his window may be closing on a real opportunity, but as we know - it's a long season. Also looking at the 'long season' card is Dusty Gillespie, whose .320 spring had to compete with his career .219 in the minors. Ditto Joey Walker and his .321 spring and .248 minor league number. Both were shipped back to AAA.
Infield
Jose Torres (.266, 45 HR, 166 RBI in his first two seasons as the starter at first) certainly didn't need to prove anything this spring, and perhaps Aurora was really hoping someone else would have flourished at the plate so that Torres could become the DH - he's not the sharpest of fielders, but with that not happening, it's back to first for the incumbent, despite a slightly distressing .195 that included just a lone double. To the contrast, SS Teddy Loetzsch seems to have picked up where he left off, hitting .323 with 6-2B and a pair of triples this spring. The 30-year old Loetzsch, entering his 5th year as Aurora's main shortstop, hit .277 last year with 29-2B and a league leading 15-3B and seems to have come into his own as a presence on the infield. Barring a collapse in performance (like 2028, where he hit .231), this should be a non-story all year - his defense alone should keep him busy and employed.
A number of players where brought in this spring in an attempt to make-up for the loss of 'Big Whiskey' and Pablo Medrano, and few of them shined. Hector Prado, the free agent signee, managed just .208 - but the investment (albeit, small at $1.5M for 2030) will keep him on the squad - for now. Rule 5 draftee, Steve Arnold had ample time to impress, but in 31 AB he managed a meek .161 and was returned to Duluth. Minor Leaguer Suezo Kato hit .130 and was shipped out. Arthur Bonsall, a career .269 hitter, never was a serious consideration, despite hitting .267. He, too, was off to Thornton. One player who opened some eyes, but perhaps lost out on other intangibles (read that as positional flexibility), is Jorge Soto. In 39 AB he hit .333, showing a hint of the power he has displayed at times in the minors (well, before last years difficult year at AAA). For Soto, it was likely to have taken a monster spring to make the club, and despite having a canon arm at third, the rest of his defensive skills are sorely lacking. He'll get the chance to improve on that at Thornton.
Having the advantage of being defensively flexible is Roy Duke. Last years Rule 5 pick from West Virginia, mostly struggled in 2029, but stuck because of that flexibility, and it is that trait that has him sticking, despite hitting .179 this spring. He will be the 'rest giver'. Another Rule 5 guy who is sticking, for now, is infielder Jose Ruiz, from Kentucky. The 31-year old, who is defensively flexible as well - if not quite as proficient as Duke, has historically provided more offense than Duke - he hit .265 at Jefferson City last year, and recently .276 with Reno (in 2027). For the Borealis this spring he managed .283 and a team leading 9 RBI (tied with Loetzsch). Those numbers have him earning the starting job at 3B, and will likely be the primary back-up to Torres at first.
That leaves on the fence 2B Felipe Lopez, who signed a minor league deal out of the Mexican League (Azuza), where he hit .269 over 7-seaons and stole 97 bases. He's a speedy guy, with excellent (if not limited to) skills at 2B. He finished with a flourish, 6-11 in his last three starts this spring, to end up at .273. Whether he sticks or not will come down to what the team does with the pitching, with a possible 13-13 roster split forcing Lopez to AAA. Keeping six outfielders and 13 pitchers will leave this team thin on the infield, so I'd suspect we shall see Lopez on the Opening Day roster.
Starters: 1B Torres, 2B Prado, SS Loetzsch, 3B Ruiz Back-ups: Duke (Lopez)
Catcher
No surprises here. Yano Shirane got minimal playing time, and ditto Jorge Alonso. All that earned them was Shirane heading to AAA and Alonso to the DFA list, his fate TBD. As for the incumbents, 'Fido' hit .348, compared to Gutierrez' .273, and that was that. Without a trade to mix this up, this was a non-story since... the end of last season?
Starter: C Manny Castro Back-ups: C Domingo Gutierrez
Starting Pitchers
I think most would agree with me that this is the most stable part of the lot. Long considered the teams strength, and one of the strongest rotations in the PEBA, period, the 2030 rotation looks to be as strong as usual. 'Tugboat' is back, happily signing a 2-year deal with the team that management and fans alike hope will likely bring Randy Smith's illustrious career to an end with the Borealis. After missing the first part of 2029 with an injury, he made 23 starts with a 2.13 ERA. The 37-year old 'Tugboat' looks to be in fine form, posting a 0.56 ERA in four starts. Based on spring training, he's looking as good as ever. Joining the 'Old Man's Pitcher Club' is Luis Nieves, as the 35-year old posted a 1.12 ERA, despite a perceptible drop in the quality pitches thrown. Luis is in the last year of his contract, and is not expected to be re-signed. He'll be slotted 4th, for now, and with that, lesser expectations. Still, most teams would be thrilled with a 4th slotted arm like 'Chief'. Also on the aging from is Bartolo Esquivel, who like Smith and Nieves, looked sharp, with a 2.81 ERA and 18 K in his 16 IP. Bartolo's contract over the next two seasons hinge on a team option, so he will need to throw like a $20M pitcher - and his spring results suggest he will.
JT - John Turner, is the youngest of the starters who began 2029 (at 31-years old), is coming off a second outstanding year with Aurora after signing his 2028 FA deal upon leaving New Orleans after the 2027 season. His 22 K were tops amongst the starters and second only to Bob Burns (23), with a fine 2.81 ERA. Turner will take his turn after 'Tugboat', with Esquivel to follow. What concerns the club about Turner is the mutual option for 2031 - should JT have another outstanding year, will he opt-out of his remaining 2-years at $18.5M each. Still under team control, and definitely one of the youngest arms on the team, 27-year old Richard Neely still has a lot to prove to the coaching staff. After struggling to a 4.07 ERA after being traded from San Antonio, he pitched somewhat better this spring, posting a 3.38 ERA and striking out 12 in 16 IP. If numbers that otherwise resemble those of Turners, the half-a-run difference in ERA may boil down to Neely's lack of overpowering stuff. How that translates over the course of a full season is to be seen.
The traditional spring '6th Arm' this year was John Gillard, the 2029 minor league FA signed out of Toyama's system. Last year in 28 starts for Thornton he had a 2.76 ERA and struck out 146, giving the team hope that he might make a case for the 5th spot, pressuring Neely to do better. Whether the latter happened, it's hard to quantify, but he failed to impress the Borealis brass - 6.75 ERA, 8 K, 8 BB (most on the team), and as a result, probably the odd man out on the 26-man roster. With the Bullpen already a crowded spot, Gillard is likely to pitch in Thornton if Aurora choses to keep 14-position players (Lopez).
Rotation: 'Tugboat', JT, Esquivel, 'Chief' and Neely
Bullpen
The obvious: Bob Burns, 14.2 IP, 23 K, 1.84 ERA. John Gray, 10 IP, 18 K, 3 BB, 1.80 ERA. Closer. Set-up man for the 8th. Burns, a nice and shiny new contract. Gray, a to-be free agent, unwilling to talk extension. That's the back-end of the 'pen - little more to discuss.
The rest of the 'pen will be a challenge, and a test of manager Kumanosuke Oshima's skills. Kichibei Kamuta, acquired from Okinawa last year, pitched a bit better than his 2029 numbers, giving Aurora a 3.97 this spring, but with a bit of shaky control. Bob Erickson, from Canton via trade last year (struggled at first, then came around), put up a 3.72 ERA, but did strike out 10 in 9.2 IP. Both he and Kamuta held hitters under .200. Dan Ross, from Toyama in trade last year (and was horrid), pitched well this spring (2.45 ERA, 10 K in 7 IP, with a walk) but will be out for 5 weeks with a sore elbow.
Ross' injury opens the door for Rule 5 pitcher Mark Powers, out of Palm Springs' system. He threw 11 innings this spring, to a 3.18 ERA and 9 K. With a .205 OAVG and .207 BABIP, he has the look of a potential keeper, and between the injury to Ross and Gillard's for performance, he will be on the opening day roster. Also pitching reasonably well enough to maintain their roster spots were Lando Lagerveld (3.00, 10 K, 2 BB) and Rob Imhoff (3.12, 10 K, 4 BB), with the biggest news, to be perfectly blunt, Imhoff staying healthy as he works out of the 'pen. Rob has been carping off to the press about his displeasure with pitching in the 'pen but until he can show he can stay healthy for more than a week at a time, it is the 'pen he will throw from.
One arm we will be sorry to leave is Hugh 'Mister Mister' Jones. His 2029 time at Aurora was less then impressive, and despite satisfactory spring, in light of the work by Powers (and his Rule 5 nature), someone had to go, so Jones' 2.61 ERA and lack of options has him on the DFA. 23-year old Rafael Benitez looked good (2.38 ERA in 11.1 IP), but his 11 BB earned him a ticket back to AAA. Also pitching well, but benefiting from having an option, was Brandon 'Catfish' Waters, who posted a 3.00 in 12 IP, with 14 K and 5 BB. Under different conditions, perhaps he makes his major league debut.
Closer: Burns Set-up: Gray, Kamuta and Erickson Mid-relief: Landerveld, Imhoff and Powers (and Gillard?)
Outlook
The starting rotation is likely to keep Aurora in games and in position to win. That's a given. If not, it will be a long season. Any lead given to Gray and Burns will likely be wins. So it's crucial Aurora wins those first 7-innings if this team is going to be competitive. That leaves it to two main questions:
a) Will the mid-relievers hold leads and not implode with great regularity. Last year that answer was a frequent no.
b) Will this team hit enough? Last year that answer was, meh.
Aurora has lost 20 HR from Britt and 8 from Flores - and replaced it with basically nothing. Put it in analytic terms, they lost 7.8 Offensive WAR and replaced it with 1.6. That's offense that needs to come from somewhere. In 2027, Aurora hit .282, and the last two seasons they hit .265 and .262 - not coincidentally, that was after the loss of Pedro Ferringo to Reno. Is Stewart Arundale ready to replace that bat? That's a major question. Will the reclamation projects of Prado, Ruiz and Lopez provide enough? Will Torres stay consistent or even improve on his first two seasons? Those really are the main questions when we analyze this years Borealis.
My expectations? Everyone looks at the Bears and Codgers ruling the Desert Hills roost this year. It's also hard to not envision Reno pushing Aurora for 3rd place. Then again, with a bit of luck, and players playing just a tad above their baseball cards, this team could push for a wild card spot - if not, they will be the first Aurora club to fail making the post-season in consecutive years.
If I were a betting man, I think I lay my money on that last outcome. I hear the Vegas odds are even money.
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
Rough Start, Some Shine, in Opening Week
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger
April 8, 2030: Aurora, Colorado - One could have expected more. But perhaps that will be the flaw in expectations for 2030. One could have hoped for more, but that flaw would still exist. Perhaps the real plan should be to have low expectations and hope for the best - for the best is, of course, relative. For a team that feels as flawed as this one, best may be all we have.
But it wasn't all bad.
The Borealis started the 2030 season on the road at Kalamazoo, and the Badgers, who were 10-14 during the spring, seemed like a nice place for this Borealis squad to get their feet wet. By the end, it was Aurora who looked a little damp.
Opening Day had Randy Smith on the mound for the third straight year, having recovered fully from last years early season injury, and he looked ok, but not the dominant 'Tugboat' we've all come to love. He would allow 9 hits and 4 runs (3 earned, thanks to a Hector Prado error) - including a HR. Kzoo's Jose Martinez, a free agent signing out of Reno for the Badgers looked much better, allowing 7 hits over 5 IP, but striking out 9 - the Badgers would chalk up 12 K all told in the game; quite the inauspicious start for Aurora. There was some nice things: Stewart 'Litterbug' Arundale, in his ML debut, singled in his first AB, and Harry Hutchins had a double for his first Aurora hit - then had to leave the game with a slight back spasm while avoiding a tag at second. Bob Erickson threw an innings and 2/3 relief, allowing just a hit - a huge improvement over his Aurora debut last year. All in all, not an exciting day as Aurora dropped a 4-3 game in the seasons Opener.
John Turner went in game two, and he looked dominant in his 6 innings, with 6 hits and 6 K's, allowing just a run. Stewart Arundale had a pair of hits - a lead-off double for his first extra-base hit, and Manny Castro and Nick Heath each had 3 hits as Aurora collected 11 in all in a 4-2 win over Sang-hyuk Pak. Aurora collected 3 doubles in the game, giving them four on the season.
Game 3, the rubber match of the series, featured former-Borealis great Mike Provost - the soon-to-be 38-year old signing a 1-year deal with Kalamazoo, and as you might expect, he was tough on his old team. Bartolo Esquivel would pitch well - he allowed only 4 hits in 5 IP, but one was a solo HR, as the Badgers would spot 'Train Arollin'' a 2-0 lead, who pitched like the old, dominant days - scattering 6 hits over 8 IP. Aurora managed a run of Provost in the 6th (to make the score the 2-1 final it would become) when Hutchins singled in the 6th, stole 2nd and 3rd, then scoring on a sac fly. Paul Carlisle has a double, giving Aurora 5-2Bs in the series - all the extra base hits they'd get for the series. By contrast, Kalamazoo had 8 XBH, including 3 HR.
As you can see, Aurora's power struggles have already begun.
The prospects of a good season down the tubes with the series loss to the Badgers, things didn't look promising as the team drove west from Michigan to North Dakota to face off with Fargo.
The defense failed 'Chief' in this one, as three Aurora (two by Teddy Loetzsch - in the first two innings) , would allow Fargo to score 5 runs off Nieves, while Warren manning would allow 9 hits, and yet befuddle Aurora - they couldn't score until the 7th (despite 5-2Bs, two from 'Fido' - for those keeping score, that's 10-2B, and no HR). Carlisle had 3-hits, and Castro had another 3-hit game (and is hitting .533), but 'Litterbug' and Hutchins were 0-8 at the top of the line-up. On a positive note, Rule 5 pitcher Mark Powers made his debut and threw 2.1 innings and allowed a hit, a walk and struck out 3. In the end, Aurora's inability to string hits together - and poor D, led to a 5-2 loss.
Both teams hit hard against the starters in the first inning of game 2 - Aurora scoring a pair of Roberto Miranda, thanks to doubles by Hutchins and Heath and an RBI single from Jose Torres, while Richard Neely fooled no one in a 3-run first for the Dinos. Aurora would tie the game in the second with a pair of doubles -2-out shots by Zamora and Hutchins (that's 14 on the year) - and tied it'd stay until the 5th, when Fargo pushed a run across to create the 4-3 final score, as the bullpens would shut the game down for the remaining innings. For Neely, he went 5.2 IP, allowed 9 H, 4 R, 2 BB and a K. Aurora is going to need better.
With Fargo looking at a Sweep - and the Borealis looking glum, a classic match-up: 'Tugboat' v. Molina proved to be anything but, as Aurora would pound for 10 hits and 5 runs over his 7 IP, then for good measure, Michael Jackson surrendered another 3 in a third of an innings. 'Litterbug' started the parade with a lead-off double (his second such of the year) and he would be Aurora's four multi-double hitter of the young season as he would go 3-5. Ricardo Zamora also had a double (the teams 17th), before FINALLY in the 8th, Nick Heath would break the homer drought with a 3-run shot of Jackson. 'Tugboat' looked better in this start than the previous one - and considering the competition, that's a plus, as he gave up 7 hits and 2 runs in 6.1 innings. Kamuta threw 2.2 innings in relief and allowed just a hit. Six members of the Borealis had multiple hits as the team pounded Fargo pitching for 16 in a satisfying 9-2 win, sending the team back to the Front Range for the home opener against Duluth.
For the week, not mentioned in all this was 3B Jose Ruiz, another Rule 5 guy, who was 4-8 in three starts. 'Fido' Castro was 10-21 (.476), with 3-2B, to be the main leader in the clubhouse. The outfield, not too surprisingly, were the big hitters, with Heath (8-21,3-2B, HR, 6 RBI), Carlisle (7-22) and Hutchins (6-20, 3-2B, 3 SB). Also part of this group were Zamora (3-10, 2-2B) and rookie Stewart Arundale - who thrust into the lineup - at leadoff, no less, with a year and a half of pro ball underneath him, went 6-22, with 3-2B. Quite the excellent start.
For the record, Aurora's 17-2B is the tops after a week of play. Only one team (Arlington) has fewer HR than Aurora's 1 (although Canton and Duluth also have but 1).
Not looking good at this point, off to a rough start are Teddy Loetzsch (3-21) and Hector Prado (3-15, with a team leading 8 K). Aside from Neely's performance, none of the pitchers have looked awful. As a matter of fact, Aurora had 11 IP from 6 of their relief arms that were scoreless - only the homer allowed by Kamuta being the blemish on their record.
Down on the Farm
Of particular note, AA Gatineau is off to a tremendous 5-2 start, behind the collection of young arms they hope will create the core of their future rotation. Henry Cluett made two starts and over 14 IP allowed 8 H, 1 R (for a 0.64 ERA) and struck out 12. The 22-year old Cluett pitched at AA last year, with a 2.73 ERA for the season, and we'd expect he'll be at AAA soon enough - Aurora coaches telling us they aren't interested in rushing there you prospect. Pedro Morales (who like Cluett came from Toyama in the 'Fudd' deal) also had a pair of starts and in 12.1 IP, struck out 15, while allowing 2 runs for a 1.46 ERA. Pedro split time between SLRC and the Balloonists, and word around the clubhouse is they want to see some improved control before moving hit to Thornton.
What's on Tap
A two-game series with the Warriors (JT v. Nakamura, Esquivel v. Jose Santos) opens the home season, followed by an off day and then Canton comes to The front Range to begin an 18-day stretch for Aurora which will take them to Yuma, Canton and Duluth, before entertaining Kalamazoo and Fargo.
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
Borealis wrote: ↑Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:00 pmThe prospects of a good season down the tubes with the series loss to the Badgers, things didn't look promising
Who knew the entire season rested on those first 3 games?
Borealis wrote: ↑Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:00 pmThe prospects of a good season down the tubes with the series loss to the Badgers, things didn't look promising
Who knew the entire season rested on those first 3 games?
Ray made a mis-speak in the first blog of the season? Man... it is going to be a long season... I'm pretty sure he meant 'good start'...
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
Borealis wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:47 pmRay made a mis-speak in the first blog of the season? Man... it is going to be a long season... I'm pretty sure he meant 'good start'...
Nah I don't think so. Rumor has it he was spotted sporting a brand new Mendoza jersey.
Dan Vail
Bakersfield Bears 2028-2030
Niihama-shi Ghosts 2010, 2031-current
Borealis wrote: ↑Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:47 pmRay made a mis-speak in the first blog of the season? Man... it is going to be a long season... I'm pretty sure he meant 'good start'...
Nah I don't think so. Rumor has it he was spotted sporting a brand new Mendoza jersey.
He was, but it's an Aurora Jersey, back when it looked like those two were headed to the Front Range...
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
