Draft Guide Part 3: Advanced Analysis 1

[John]

Beyond the Big 5: Examining Ratings on the Player Page
With 600 players being drafted and only so much time to prepare, most of your scouting is going to be done using the “big 5” hitter and pitcher ratings that appear on the main draft utility page. At times you’ll find that two or more players look very even from those ratings. So how do you rank them? Before you reach for that coin, click on the players’ names to bring up their player pages. There’s a wealth of information here that can help you differentiate between a good pick and a truly great one.

One of the first things to take note of: is the player right or left-handed (or, for batters, a switch hitter)? Some of you play in ballparks with fairly symmetrical dimensions; for you this info may not be as compelling. Others play in ballparks that particularly favor left/right-handers. Look up your ballpark template at Clem’s Baseball. If you notice your ballpark features an unusual or asymmetrical configuration, you’ll want to favor players whose handedness play to your park’s style.

In the middle of the page you’ll see another take on the player’s “big 5 ratings”. This section is particularly useful for the “vs. LH/RH” breakdown. The best-case scenario is of course to have a player equally proficient vs. left and right-handers, but failing that you’ll want to make sure you have a reasonable mix of players who are proficient against one or the other.

Pitchers get an extra ratings breakdown here for groundball % and holding runners. Being able to induce a large number of groundballs is particularly beneficial to pitchers with lower Stuff ratings (since they’re more likely to be giving up balls in play). Proficiency with holding runners takes on extra importance for pitchers with poorer Control ratings (since they’re more likely to be allowing base runners). You can also view a player’s repertoire of pitches here. In general it’s a plus for a SP to have three or more pitches (relievers can get away with less).

Below this you have the Running & Bunting Ratings (which can be ignored for pitchers, as PEBA is an all-DH league). Running Speed measures how quickly a player can advance from one base to the next. High Running Speed will sometimes allow a player to take extra bases on balls in play. It also directly impacts stolen bases, which seems to make the Stealing Bases rating redundant. What that affects, however, is the “technical” side of stealing: reading the pitcher, getting a good jump, etc. A slower runner with a high Stealing Bases rating may be a more successful base swiper than you’d expect (and vice versa). The best base stealers will have high ratings in both categories. Also, bear in mind that Running Speed has no impact on defensive play.

Players with high Baserunning Instincts are more likely to advance a base on fielder errors and less likely to get thrown out due to baserunning mistakes. Having a plus Running Speed rating will help players take advantage of their Baserunning Instincts. The bunting ratings work as you’d expect with a couple special notes. A high Sacrifice Bunt rating will help a player avoid striking out while attempting to bunt. With Bunt for Hit, even players with a very good rating here aren’t likely to be successful without at least average Running Speed. Also, left-handed batters have an advantage in this area.

There are three hitter types in OOTP: Spray, Normal, and Pull. Spray hitters will generally distribute an even amount of balls in play to all parts of the field. Normal hitters will display a tendency to pull the ball while still hitting their fair share of balls to the opposite field. Pull hitters will pull a much greater majority of balls in play. Again, your ballpark’s dimensions may impact your preferences here. For instance, if your park favors left-handed hitters and you’re eyeing a right-handed player, his value to you will be greater if he’s a spray hitter.

The final edition of the draft guide will cover positional ratings, contract and service time, and player popularity.