The Great Train Robbery?

[Alan Ehlers]

The Great Train Robbery? Knights GM Van Hauter Takes On His Detractors
Winston Smith, reporter for the Oceania Sun Times

1/8/2009: Tempe, AZ – With the Winter Meetings now over, Tempe Knights GM Christopher Van Hauter took stock of his new players and was happy with what he achieved. Van Hauter stated that although he will miss Bill Taylor and Bob Keller, he feels Tempe solved their most pressing needs with another left-handed starter and great fielding second basemen. Van Hauter laughs at some skeptics who state that he got "fleeced" at the Meetings, stating that some reporters obviously have not got updated scouting reports or there scouts are not doing their job. Taylor, albeit a decent starter, was expendable because Tempe had enough right-handed starting pitching. Van Hauter concludes that if Fisher cost the same amount as Taylor then it would not be an issue.

The GM laughed at his detractors, saying that, “We took on some salary; however, in this league it seems that if you do that you get ‘fleeced’ or ‘ripped off’. I personally do not get it. Look at Terry Thornton and Gary Fisher; I will bet they will be solid team players because that is what we are building here is a team. And having Miguel Lozano as a gateway to Christos Douglass… what major league manager would not take that? Lozano is a solid major leaguer who has had two solid seasons and he is only 28, but the knock that I am getting is that I took on salary. As far as I can see that is the only negative thing some people have been saying."


Van Hauter believes he has a team now which might even compete for a playoff spot if the young pitching comes together this year. What is a definite is that Tempe has one of the best bullpens around with the trade for Lozano. Tempe will also have one of the better fielding teams in the majors with Thornton taking over at second along with All-Leather shortstop Edward Allen, first basemen Jorge Rivera and third basemen Ken Price. Van Hauter is also quick to point out that their outfield is pretty solid with Tomás Mora, Michael Grymes, and Martínez, and he states, “Do not forget about Richard Carney behind the plate, who should have won the All-Leather last year.”

When asked about Thornton’s struggles and some people stating that he had only a .310 OBP last year at single A, Van Hauter once again dismisses it, concluding that, "Thornton will be a solid run producer and he will get on base. He is extremely fast and speed never goes into a slump as well as good defense. However, some critics of our organization think that it is okay for a player to be horrible on defense and terrible on the base paths as long as he hits 20 homeruns and drives in 100. Well, if he allows 200 runs because he can not run or field then where is the logic in that?” Van Hauter did admit that the organization would miss Keller but believes the Knights are solid at catcher for awhile with Carney and that Keller's scouting reports have really dropped off.

One thing for sure is that Tempe set out with specific goals at the Winter Meetings and met every one of them. When asked about all the negativity concerning his moves in the Meetings, Van Hauter stated flatly, "Let me tell you this: People can write all they want and slam the organization, stating we got robbed and such, but people who actually look at the trades and shed the money-colored glasses will see that we got a lot for our buck." Van Hauter concluded that, “At the end of the year just compare Taylor and Fisher's numbers. If Taylor wins the Golden Arm Award and Fisher has an ERA over 6.00 then maybe it was a bad deal.” Tempe, who improved tremendously over last year, looks to hit the .500 mark this year and with the success of the Winter Meetings it looks like that goal will be achieved.

In other Knights news, the organization is ecstatic about the trade for Dean Bailey, believing he has a swing as good as Ted Williams, and will start him off this season at AA along with closer Bryant Duncan. GM Van Hauter believes that both could be in the big leagues with the September call-ups, with Duncan being handed the closer role next season. Tempe has admitted that it is not going to pursue Douglass, whose contract runs out at the end of the year. However, if Duncan is not ready the Knights have stated that they will resign Lozano.

[Matt]

fwiw, i am not so sure the trade was a fleecing either.

That the knights were willing to take on salary with Fisher surprised me, but it's one year and it filled a need he felt he had. I don't know about Taylors future, my scouts have him as back of the rotation material right now, but maybe he bounces back in San Antonio where he had a good season in 2007. The knights did get the best player in the deal, at least on paper, in Thornton. My only problem, as I said before, is that he has not had enough minor league at bats and is not really ready for the PEBA level. I would hold him back a year. But Tempe is not shy about letting their players crash and burn at the PEBA level, so that's his decision. As Tempe said, Keller's scouting reports have been slipping, but I was willing to bring him over mostly because of the defensive skills. If the bat bounces back, fine, if not, ...oh well.

All in all, I think the trade is one that met both teams needs. We have dealt before, and we know how to deal with each other. I called, inquired about Keller and Taylor. I asked what his needs were. He needed a second basemen, one who could field well, and I pointed him to Thornton. He then asked about Fisher to fill his need for a lefty. The entire conversation took about 3 minutes and both teams were satisfied with the deal.

I get Taylor, who at worst is under my control cheaply for a few seasons as I reshape the pitching staff, and I get depth at catcher, as well as save a little cash. All wins for me. But Tempe got the second basemen of the future in his eyes, and my scouts agree. We just disagree about when the future should be. And he filled his need for left handed starter. Fisher and Taylor could be a complete wash with similiar stats at the end of the season, in which case Tempe takes it the wallet a little bit. But if Thornton pans out, it turns into a win for him.

In the end, very good chance this deal turns out to be a win/win deal for both sides when all is said and done. And generally, when Chris and I deal, we look for ways to make it a win/win both ways. It's really the only way to do a deal. If both parties can accomplish thier goals through a trade, that's the way it should be done.

[Coqui]

As has been chronicled on here, I really strongly disagree. My scouts, and any possible number you could name, think Thornton is a flameout. Taylor, in a supposedly bad year, still went 5-11 with a 4.60 ERA. Anyone want to make a friendly wager?

Amongst qualifiers at second base, the median RC/27 was roughly 5.00. I'll wager you 10 CP's that Thornton doesn't even manage that. For a quick rundown on RC/27, go here. That's where we are. You think that Thornton can be at least league average, and I think he can't. Will you take me up on it or are you just posturing?

[Denny]

I'll take you up on it, Canton! You're just another crazy hater!!!*









*actually I'm just posturing....I agree completely with Canton's view of this transaction.

[Bill]

A few thoughts on the Tempe GM's delusional attempts to talk himself into a trade he made because he was jealous of all the attention being sent to San Antonio. First, Thornton, while by all accounts a great guy and a wizard at nine-pin, is not a bonafide prospect. While I agree that "speed never goes into a slump," I took a quick look at the rule book and confirmed my hunch that you still can't challenge the pitcher to a race for the right to go to first base. The only place he'll be going in a hurry is back to the dugout, which he has done nearly 3/4 of the times he has come to the plate in his career. That's poor in the bigs; it's pathetic at his level in the minors. Your assertation that "he will get on base" is not borne out by his numbers, to say nothing of the fact that he's a pull hitter with no discipline. Congratulations on picking up Juan Pierre.

Another thing I noticed as my eyes clouded with tears of blood while reading your article was the assertation that it is somehow possible that a player can cost his team 200 runs "because he can't run or field." This is the equivalent of a guy costing his team a run - not an out or a base or a runner, but a run - every 7 1/3 innings because he can't field. Sorry, not possible. The fella I had holding down 2B for me last year fielded 691 chances in 150 games, or a chance every 1.95 innings. To cost me 200 runs, he would have had to cost me a run every 3.5 chances. Perhaps on the paths then? Well, anyone who watches baseball realizes that speed in baseball is about as valuable as good looks in hockey. Whether your speed merchant is on second or third when Johnny Paddlehands drops one of 20 bombs makes no difference; everyone gets to score. Go to hardballtimes.com and read up on what creates value at the plate. Also try http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html , which shows that stealing second helps your team by .2 probable runs that inning, while getting caught hurts them by .7. A base stealer needs to be succesful about 80% of the time just to give his team a wash. We could go on talking about advancement and 1st and 3rds, sac bunts and whatever, but it would get tiresome. Bottom line is, a player would have to get caught stealing 286 times without a succesful attempt to cost his team 200 runs on the paths. Not likely.

Lozano should be a good addition to your bullpen though. Nice work on that part. Keep Ted Williams' name out of your mouth.

[Alan Ehlers]

Your obvious attempts to illustrate that you majored in math does not go unnoticed. As for being envious of San Antonio maybe you should pull your pants down when you talk out of your ass so people can understand you better. The last time I looked in the rule book also catching the ball equals an out not catching it results in an error. Also if I do remember errors give the team extra at bats and how many big innings occur when someone drops the ball. Lets see lets go to the 2003 series with the Cubs, Gonzalez drops the ball 5 runs score, hmmm that kind of goes against your math slightly. Also your argument about speed not being important is mystifying. So your argument is that it does not matter that a person goes from first to third. I guess you must have put the rule book down after you made your point of trying to be clever. If you would have read on sacrifice flies are runs right? Well oh wizard of the rule book maybe you should have read on instead of trying to get your digs in. Well I can give as good as I get and number 1, your math is faulty
number 2, I have known San Antonio for 20 years so your arguement that I envy him has no merit

3. Are you trying to tell me big innings occur because of a team that can not field never happen, if that is the arguement you are making then you are the one delusional.

I really love people who hide behind math statistics to cover up the lack of true baseball knowledge

Next time Duluth do your homework a little better and try not to let your sliderule do the talking.

[Alan Ehlers]

I will take you up on any challenge you want , Thorton will be fine and you still have not giving me an adequate answer of why Fisher was a bust except that spent too much.

[Alan Ehlers]

What about range , so if your second basmen has no range that is okay in your book, it is what he catches. I know that goes against all the numbers you crafted but where does that aspect of the game of baseball, not astro physics fit in, enlighten me because i realy need to hear some more nonsense.

[Alan Ehlers]

It is amazing to me how Bill Taylor has turned into Sandy Koufax and Keller in Johnny Bench , and Fisher and Thorton trun into the biggest bums in the world. It does matter that my scouts have Fisher and Thorton as 4-5 star potential. However, peoples arguments are that Thorton had a bad year in limited at bats and because San Antonio stated that Fisher was a pawn he is now a bum. Keller struggled also and Taylor did not have a great year. However, no one cares about that , he is the best thing going since Koufax. Lets see Taylor has a losing record Keller's scouting reports are terrible now. It does not matter that my head scout who scouts pitching and hitting at over 95% love Fisher and Thorton. It all boils down is that Fisher cost money and Thorton cant hit.

[Reg]

i think its important here to remember that we all come to value in different ways, if Tempe scouts and he feels as though he got the pieces he needed to fill out his team, then he accomplished his purpose, putting teams together is an artform, not a science...

so for what's it worth Tempe did well internally to put the team he feels will be competitive and while it may be a different approach (which can be looked at from the outside and assigned a value, and discussed) than the one you take, it doesn't mean its dead wrong...besides the real proof won't be there until the season plays itself out...

[John]

I don't think any challenge is necessary. Obviously we have a couple of different points of view on the trade. You know what? That's cool. Really, that's how it should be. How boring would things be if we all viewed players the same way? Heck, boring would be the least of our problems... we'd never make any trades because every owner would value every player exactly the same as their piers.

What we're seeing here plays out in MLB, too. Some teams place an emphasis on scouting; some place an emphasis on statistical performance. A guy like Paul DePodesta is hailed as a wizard as an assistant GM in Oakland. He gets the GM job in Los Angles and is ridiculed as being an egghead. Same guy, different baseball culture. Who's right and who's wrong? You're smarter than me if you know the answer.

The only thing I'll emphasize is that, while we're all going to disagree on these things from time to time, we should bear in mind the importance of remaining respectful of differing opinions. Yes, even opinions that we're 100% sure are wrong. That doesn't mean we can debate and argue our positions; it just means we shouldn't get personal. Let's try to keep that goal in the forefront.

Or you can just read the Trendsetters response, since he said it all much more succinctly than I did.

[Alan Ehlers]

but I am not going to be silent while someone is taking pot shots at me with a bunch of sarcastic comments and insults

[Denny]

Personally I hope all four of them turn out to be bums, since none of them play for me

[Reg]

you wouldn't remeber if they played for you or not...

[Coqui]

First off, let's not get into ad hominem attacks here. It's really unbecoming gentlemen. Let's just discuss baseball.

Keller and Fisher are hardly the point here. The point is that Thornton is not even close to ready for the majors and that Taylor is alreayd a good pitcher, and could be even better than that. W-L record is just about the stupidest argument you could ever, ever make for a pitcher. It's what most decent baseball analysts will admit is a junk stat. Taylor is possessed of a career WHIP of 1.32 (think Frankie Rodriguez this year), a career ERA of 3.60 and a career K/BB rate of 1.85. He is already good.

Thornton, on the other hand, is very bad. He cannot hit at all (career .278 OPB, .320 SLG) in single A and is now in the majors. His fielding, supposedly the key to this trade, is also not that great. His fielding percentage (again, a junk stat) in the minors is roughly that of the 87 year old Jeff Kent. His range factor in the minors, the minors is roughly equivalent to that of Dan Uggla. Uggla was fourth from last in the league for second basemen this year. Simply put, Thornton isn't that great of a fielder either.

The Warriors was not telling that big innings never happen. He was telling that Thornton is going cost you way, way, way, way, way more at the plate than he is going to gain you in the field. (Way more). It's been shown that Thornton doesn't have great range and doesn't catch a great amount of what he does manage to get a glove on.

Fisher was a bad move because you had a better pitcher already on your staff (Taylor) and Fisher is a 29 year old on a one year contract on a team that isn't going to contend this year. My point as the writer of the article was that it just didn't make sense.

Finally, numbers are baseball, numbers are the soul of baseball. They tell the story far more accurately than what we see with our eyes or can ever get from a subjective opinion of a scout. Numbers are objective measures of reality and are the key to success for any major league team. Dismissing them as simple "math" exposes a lack of understanding for the way the game is played and reported. It should also be noted that the owner of the Warriors did not major in math and is, in fact, a highly decorated college baseball player. Oops.

Alright, kids. I'll keep chatting so long as this stays civil.

And if you will take any bet, this is my final offer: 10 CP's that Thornton doesn't manage a RC/27 over 5.00 (assuming he qualifies, if he doesn't, you lose). 10 CP's that Thornton doesn't manage a VORP over 5.