PEBA Winter Meetings (Part one of three)

[Coqui]

PEBA Winter Meetings

USA Today
Benjamin Lincoln

The PEBA Winter Meetings concluded last night with all of the trading profligacy for which the league is known. A trade by trade breakdown, and team grades, follow in this in depth article.

Trade #1: Manchester-San Antonio

San Antonio made its first move at the opening bell of the meetings. In this one, financial burden third baseman Michael Kelly went to Mauler in exchange for an A ball centre fielder and a first and sixth round draft pick.

Analysis: Kelly makes $8.5 million a year but fills a hole at third for the Manchesterians with his 56.9 VORP last year. Mostly a salary dump for San Antonio, the Calzones still managed to net a great pick.

Edge: Slight for San Antonio. It’s not clear that this move is the right one for a Manchester team that finished 72-90 last year.

Trade #2: Tempe-Kentucky

Both of these teams flailed through losing seasons (each 65-97) last year and figured to be movers here at the meetings. Tempe added a closer (Miguel Lozano, also AAA SP Tabito Ishibashi) and Kentucky added one organizational soldier (R. Cunningham) and one decent prospect (Doug Hinkle).

Analysis: This one is befuddling. Tempe added the over $3 million of Lozano and, for the privilege of doing so, traded Doug Hinkle, a pretty good prospect. Tempe did acquire a 32 year old, journeyman, AAA pitcher though, so they have that going for them.

Edge: Kentucky in a landslide. The Thoroughbreds cut salary and added the best prospect in the trade.

Trade #3: Aurora-Omaha

First round picks traded hands here, as well as a LF prospect (Cory Pierce, to Aurora) and an SP prospect (Fernando Madrid, to Omaha).

Analysis: Not a lot to analyze here. Pretty good prospects go both ways, both to fit an organizational need. Omaha may see a quicker return on investment, but both players should develop well.

Edge: None really.

Trade #4: Omaha-San Antonio

Omaha added aging catcher Lorenzo Vega and uber-prospect Will George. San Antonio got hit or miss SP Norris Moncrief and hit or miss SP Kisho Ageda.

Analysis: Ageda ($590,000) and Moncrief ($4,000,000) don’t equal the salary of Vega ($6.75 million) and both are only under contract for a year. Both starters are capable of being better than average (2007) and both are capable of being heinous (2008). Will George is the real story here. George is rated highly by SISA and should develop into a high-OBP hitter.

Edge: IF Moncrief and Ageda return to form, this is a good deal for San Antonio. If they don’t, this is a steal for Omaha. Forget Vega, this trade hinges on the pitchers.

Trade #5: West Virginia-San Antonio

Starting to see a pattern? San Antonio kept things moving here with another trade. This time, PEBA malcontent Alfredo Pinto went to the Coal Sox for middle relievers Shigeaki Otani and Hiroya Kobayashi.

Analysis: Fodder for the SA trade mill here. Pinto has been a stiff no matter where he goes but doesn’t cost much. I would talk about how the Calzones need middle relief but, as we will see, only one of these guys remains with the team.

Edge: San Antonio, I think. Pinto is not going to help WVA and the Calzones get one reliever and flip Otani.



Trade #6: West Virginia-Tempe

A middling middle reliever (Whit Andrews) and a low A reliever (Mark Merrill) head to West Virginia from Tempe, who gets Jorge Lopez (LF) and Jose Rivera (SP). Tempe tried to bounce back from a disastrous trade earlier in the day with this one.

Analysis: Tempe got the shaft earlier but did well here. Whit Andrews is a nice piece but useless on a team going nowhere. Andrews is young but has already peaked. In Jorge Lopez and Jose Rivera, Tempe gets two players still on their way up. It’s not the kind of trade that will garner headlines, but it is a small step in the right direction.

Edge: Tempe does more with this trade. West Virginia replaces one of the relievers that they just traded. Tempe takes this one.

Trade #7: Yuma-Duluth

Jared Dobney, still recovering from a neurological disorder, made this move with his brother from the Wisconsin franchise. Tama Akiyama and a fourth rounder went to Duluth while John Wright, Bud Edwards and a sixth rounder headed to the desert.

Analysis: This one makes little sense at first blush. Akiyama is a great, but middle aged, reliever heading to a team heading toward rebuilding. Yuma gets an expensive starter (John Wright) who is 35 and a reliever (Bud Edwards) who will never be Akiyama. However, a further reading reveals that Duluth will save over a million on this trade while Yuma frees up salary when the year is over, while also patching the rotation.

Edge: Duluth. They needed the cap space and this was the first step toward getting it.

Trade #8: San Antonio-Canton

Will Guffin (MR) and a seventh rounder head to San Antonio in exchange for Shigeaki Otani, who probably never even made it to the plane.

Analysis: According to the Calzones “Hard to say if Guffin or the 7th round pick amount to much. I have more hopes for the 7th rd pick, but Guffin gives me depth at the AAA level if injuries strike. A little more salary walks away.” That sums it for San Antonio. Canton makes this move with an eye toward bolstering a terrible bullpen and making the next step toward contention.

Edge: Canton gets younger and better at the middle reliever position.

Trade #9: Aurora-West Virginia

Catchers abound in this trades. Ching-Hsia Chin (C), Robun Fujimoto (C), Ryan Rayner (OF) and $666,667 head for the hills while Victor Salgardo (C) and a first and fourth round pick head to the Borealis.

Analysis: The money makes this basically even on the salary front but mostly, this is about catchers. Chin and Fujomoto become the options for the Coal Sox. Rayner is a throw in but could eventually develop into a security blanket in the outfield. Salgardo enters the mix in Aurora, where the catcher position is a mess. Draft picks are draft picks.

Edge: Chin is a nice addition for a West Virginia team desperate for playoff success. The Coal Sox take this one, but pay dearly in the draft.

[John]

I love these trade analyses. It's nice to get different takes on my own opinions. I'm hopeful another owner will take a shot at his own analysis as well; it would be very interesting to see where opinions diverge. At any rate, I'll be looking forward to parts two and three of this series eagerly. We've yet to cover the dual-Yoshino Miyata deals... that's ought to be fun!

[Jason]

One small detail to point out for those of you who struggle with numbers, which obviously Brad does, the number after 8 is supposed to be 9 and not, in fact, 8 again.

On a more serious note, this is a well written and toughtful article. I miss Jhonny Baseball breaking down our every deal and, even though this will probably not become his schtick, Brad has done a nice job analyzing all of our Winter Meetings moves. Especially for someone who apparently can not count to ten.

[Coqui]

One small detail to point out for those of you who struggle with numbers, which obviously Brad does, the number after 8 is supposed to be 9 and not, in fact, 8 again.

On a more serious note, this is a well written and toughtful article. I miss Jhonny Baseball breaking down our every deal and, even though this will probably not become his schtick, Brad has done a nice job analyzing all of our Winter Meetings moves. Especially for someone who apparently can not count to ten.

Thanks for subtly calling attention to that Bry. I'll fix it. The dual number 8's were originally intended as a tribute to Frank Lampard, but one will be removed.

[Jason]

Well it was kind of the elephant in the room, several people had noticed it before I did but we decided I was the only one with enough tact to point it out without hurting your feelings.

[Hitmen]

I figured it was like the dual #8s in Monument Park in Yankee Stadium.

[Tyler]

Haven't read it yet, but the moment I saw this I thought: "God, I love trade analysis! "

[Bill]

I think Brad was just trying to give a shout-out to his boy Dale, Jr. He had to get his tattoo altered as well.

[Jason]

I think Brad was just trying to give a shout-out to his boy Dale, Jr. He had to get his tattoo altered as well.

I heard he was also bummed because he couldn't find the "3 with wings and a halo" key on his keyboard.

[Denny]

Trade #7: Yuma-Duluth

Jared Dobney, still recovering from a neurological disorder, made this move with his brother from the Wisconsin franchise. Tama Akiyama and a fourth rounder went to Duluth while John Wright, Bud Edwards and a sixth rounder headed to the desert.

As long as we're taking potshots at the author I must point out that Duluth is in Minnesota, not Wisconsin (although it is right on the border, I grant you).

Also, people from Manchester are called Mancunians--but that's obscure enough I wouldn't hand out too many demerits for not knowing

Great article overall....I'm waiting with bated breath to see the analysis of the rest of the flood of deals.

[Hitmen]

I think the franchise is actually in Superior, Wisconsin, right across the border, but he was too humble to name his team Superior. So, like Arte Moreno, he went with a nearby metropolis.

[John]

As long as we're taking potshots at the author I must point out that Duluth is in Minnesota, not Wisconsin (although it is right on the border, I grant you).

Also, people from Manchester are called Mancunians--but that's obscure enough I wouldn't hand out too many demerits for not knowing

Great article overall....I'm waiting with bated breath to see the analysis of the rest of the flood of deals.

I'll just toot my own horn here and point out that I caught the Wisconsin thing and properly identified denizens of Manchester as "Mancunians" in the homepage version of this article (though it took some Google-ing to get that one).

[Denny]

As long as we're taking potshots at the author I must point out that Duluth is in Minnesota, not Wisconsin (although it is right on the border, I grant you).

Also, people from Manchester are called Mancunians--but that's obscure enough I wouldn't hand out too many demerits for not knowing

Great article overall....I'm waiting with bated breath to see the analysis of the rest of the flood of deals.

I'll just toot my own horn here and point out that I caught the Wisconsin thing and properly identified denizens of Manchester as "Mancunians" in the homepage version of this article (though it took some Google-ing to get that one).

See? This is why you're the commish!

[Coqui]

If it were possible for me to have a humbling experience, this would be one. The degenerates who started the potshots will explain to the rest of you that it is not and I will retire back to the cocoon of my own smugness.

Thanks for the tip on Manchester people, I really had no idea. As far as Duluth, I'm just an idiot. That's really terribly embarassing.

[Jason]

It is ok... not everyone can be as good as geography as I am.