Premature Fireworks?

[Coqui]

A special report by baseball analyst Brad D'Aubiney.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

The story of Markus Hancock has taken PEBA by storm this year. Hancock, the first pick in the 2008 Amateur Draft, has risen through the ranks to join the Tempe Knights of the Desert Hills division. The question being debated on internet message boards and fan sites is whether Hancock has made his debut in the major leagues too early.

The former standard for early promotion was Mark Prior of the now-defunct Major League Baseball. Prior made his debut for the Chicago Cubs in 2002, not long after his being drafted in 2001. Prior was dominant from the start and very nearly won the Cy Young (an award given to MLB's best pitcher) in 2003. However, before MLB collapsed, Prior did. Overuse, poor mechanics and countless injuries nearly crippled the once promising star. This, now, is what Tempe must avoid with Hancock.

There is no questioning the talent of Hancock. His career WHIP in college doesn't even approach a whole number and he struck out nearly one and a third batters per inning. College, however, is not PEBA. As Hancock reached the AA level in the Great Northern League, his superficial numbers (2-1, 4.14) remained good. It was his peripherals that showed a bit of strain. His K/9 dropped to 5.23 and his WHIP climbed to a scandalous 1.09.
At AAA, Hancock's overall numbers (0-1, 1.77) still looked good but it appeared his control (BB/9 of 2.7) had begun to show the work of progressing so rapidly. Only a remarkably fortunate BABIP of .271 kept Hancock out of trouble. Predictably, Hancock is struggling in PEBA (0-2, 7.94). His H/9 (13.2) and BB/9 (5.29) are truly PG-13 and his WHIP has climbed over 2.

It may seem a bit rash to expect a 22-year-old to dominate – or even compete – at the PEBA level, but that is where "Fireworks" finds himself. So should he be here? Some would argue that there is no better place to learn than at the highest level; others argue that it is hard to learn when you are getting pounded night in and night out. What it will boil down to is the amount of work young Markus has to withstand.

Hancock has now thrown 160 innings this year, twice what he has ever done before. With five or six starts remaining in the year, it is not illogical to think he will approach 190. With that kind of workload, it is only a matter of time until Hancock breaks down. While his remaining in the minors would not have limited his action, it would certainly have lowered the amount of pitches thrown under stress. This would have helped preserve the young and talented right arm of Markus.

As Hancock continues his rise and his numbers inevitably begin to improve, remember the cautionary tale of Mark Prior. While some that glitters may be gold (or Fireworks), there is no guarantee it will glitter for long.

[John]

This is a really great article; "Brad D'Aubiney" builds a very convincing case against Markus being in the bigs so soon. Earlier I shared some of my thoughts on why taking the risk and promoting Hancock might not be a bad decision. It's a really interesting debate. The numbers seem to support the idea that he needs more seasoning in the minors. However, you can see why Tempe would want to be aggressive with him. I wonder if there will be any second thoughts given that Hancock's most recent two starts were particularly brutal?

[Reg]

I support Tempe, afterall Hansen was anything but a bust...so best of luck to Hancock, Hunter, and any other youngsters primed to make Tempe a wild card contender next year

[Denny]

The other thing to consider, particularly in a small market like that of Tempe, is this: service time. Even if he turns out to be a success at the ML level, this early promotion to the majors has a) forced Tempe to pay him a salary, not ideal for a cash-strapped team (though the amount is small, I grant you); and b) started his arbitration clock ticking, hastening the day when the Knights either have to pony up a big contract or let him go.

Since Tempe is far out of contention for this year, I don't see the need for the big rush to bring him up--I'd have left him at AA or AAA for 2008 with an eye toward having him contribute next year when the team has more chance to actually achieve something.

[Maulers]

The service time issue only appears if one assumes that Hancock wouldn't have started next year in the majors. If he was going to be up with the big club at the beginning of the season next year, then Tempe is actually extending his pre-arbitration time by calling him up now (i.e., he still won't become arb. eligible until after his 3rd full season).

That said, I'm not sure that I would have brought him up now.

[Matt]

The Tempe GM is apparently suffering a relapse and may soon be returning to the Betty Ford clinic.

[John]

Total aside here: I really like these articles that examine a situation on a team other than the writer's own. We all have a tendency to look at our teams through rose-colored glasses; it's kind of neat to get a different take on our own organization. I'd be interested to see more articles like this that examine either potential problem spots, unnoticed positives, or possible strategies for teams other than your own. Not only would it open up a lot of fresh new material for writing, it might give owners some new ideas.