Early Era SS's

[Lions]

I recently started looking at early era PEBA careers by taking a look at second basemen. I'm now going to continue the discussion by focusing in on their double play counterparts on the left side of the diamond.

One of the things that I realized in looking at second basemen was that some of the notable names we still remember were in the league from the get-go. The bigger names at shortstop came a bit later or, IMO, have kind of been forgotten. That's likely in part my doing, as I've focused my comments heavily on two players, but there's more to the shortstop story than them.

As a reminder, we're focusing on seasons 2007-2020, although I'll comment on some later players as well.

FIrst, though, the career leaders in WAR through 2039:
Career WAR by Shortstops
1. Ricardo Mateo (2028-2039+) - 73.4 WAR
Mateo is now the comfortably the greatest SS by WAR the PEBA has seen, well ahead of any other player at his position and still going strong at 33 years old. If you're like me and have watched the Leones move from contender to also-ran, you've likey been rebuffed in your efforts to trade for him. The Havana franchise icon will cross the 2,000 hit line in April 2040 barring any major injuries.

2. Juan Hernández (2018-2037) - 63.9 WAR
Hernández is on the 2039 Hall of Fame ballot and has had several voters comment positively about his chances. He was in Kalamazoo when I returned from my GM hiatus, so I don't have as strong a feeling about how good he was as others do. His best years were when I was away.

3. Chris Long (2014-2033) - 63.7 WAR
Long has been on my list as a great compiler more than a peak player. Consistency over flash, but he was recognized as one of the best in the league in his day.

4. Naomi Honma (2027-2039+) - 63.2 WAR
I need to deep dive into why Honma, who gets a TON of WAR value for his glovework, has only won one All-Leather award. He has hit better than I would've thought given my scout's opinion of his bat through the years.

5. George Riley (2007-2020) - 55.6 WAR
Riley is the early era SS I'm most intrigued by. I feel like he's been one of those unfairly forgotten players.

6. Ronald Lowry (2011-2025) - 52.8 WAR
Lowry's my guy! Face of the Franchise for us and one I'll always stump for... so just letting you know about that bias up front. As if you don't already know.

7. Ken Keddy (2011-2027) - 47.4 WAR
If Riley's unfairly forgotten, does that make Keddy fairly forgotten? I remember him having a good season or two, but wouldn't have expected to see him this high on the list.

8. José Rivera (2010-2026 - 45.7 WAR
Everything I just said about Keddy applies here. Although I don't remember Rivera as well.

9. Barry Wallace (2025-2039+) - 44.8 WAR
Wallace has been pretty good, but that's about as far as I'll likely go with him. We'll see on closer inspection.

10. Rodrigo Vásquez (2030-2039+) - 41.9 WAR
Just 10 years into a career that started at 22 years old, he's got potential to move pretty high up. That said, his park adjusted OPS+ is under 100. Hmm...

Other notable players:
11. Roberto Salazar (2027-2039+) - 41.4 WAR
15. Mark Richardson (2007-2017) - 37.6 WAR

There are a few other names that will likely come up when we start looking at individual seasons, but I think these are the ones worth starting with. One player not likely to come up is Bang-xao You, who I think never hit the peaks that were hoped for. Really good player, though.

[Lions]

Here's where the early era shotstops ranked in the PEBA perspectives thread:

Weighted WAR Ink Scores:
9. 37 - Ronald Lowry (2011-2025)
14. 29 - George Riley (2007-2020)
38. 13 - Chris Long (2014-2033)

Mateo (7) and Vásquez (31) are also on the list.


WAR Bucket Scores:
20. 54 - Chris Long (2014-2033)
30. 33 - Ronald Lowry (2011-2025)
36. 25 - George Riley (2007-2020)
39. 21 - Ken Keddy (2011-2027)
44. 15 - José Rivera (2010-2026)

Mateo is again 7th on this list, with Honma 11th and Hernández 15th. More SS's here than we had 2B's. In total, there are currently 4 SS's on both lists, with Mateo the only recently active one.

[Lions]

We'll now take a look at the PEBA's most valuable players lists which I published from 2014 to 2020 (and 2029-2031)

Here are the ranks from those for shortstops:

2014:
8. Mark Richardson
10. Ronald Lowry
24. Kevin McNeill
Top 50: George Riley

2015:
7. Ronald Lowry
21. Ken Keddy
Top 50: George Riley

2016:
4. Ronald Lowry
20. Ken Keddy

2017:
4. Ronald Lowry
Top 50: Orlando López

2018:
6. Ronald Lowry
Top 50: Chris Long

2019:
9. Chris Long
12. Ronald Lowry
20. Emílio Manuel

2020:
11. Chris Long
19. Emílio Manuel
Top 50: Ronald Lowry, Boyd Johnson

You'll notice that Lowry's on every one of these lists. These years correspond exactly with his prime, and I can't say for sure he would've made it the following year. In contrast, Mark Richardson makes it just in 2014, as these years are after all of his great seasons.

We'll talk more about McNeill when we get to the annual discussion.

[Borealis]

Rivera was a crucial cog in the Aurora machine, and his strong versatility - much like Aleman, made him one of Aurora's MVPs, though I don't recall his having close to Aleman's speed. Rivera played around the diamond and was an under-rated hitter during his hey day.

[Apollos]

For the record, both Lowry and Long have been worthy HOFers since day one for my money.

I’m surprised to see that Juan Hernandez didn’t appear on any of the PEBA’s most valuable player lists, but I know he was injured a few times early in his career as well.

Another great walk back in time, Frank - thank you. I think we can all agree that we’d love to see the reincarnation of the PEBA’s Most Valuable Player columns - it was an annual rite of spring

[Lions]

Just like I did for second baseman, we'll now take a look at the annual WAR leaders among shortstops.

2007
WAR Leader:
Theodore Boyd (BAK) - Teddy Boyd was 29 when the league began and ready to go. He had 7.0 WAR in our inaugural season.

Other Notables:

• George Riley was 2nd with 6.8 WAR at 27 years old. He led SS's in OPS after hitting .330 and drawing 119 walks.
• Miguel Cortéz was 4th in WAR. Only one single season record remains from 2007, and it's Cortéz's 72 doubles.
• Mark Richardson, who was the same 23 years old as Cortéz had only 2.2 WAR (15th among SS's) despite hitting 24 home runs.

2008
WAR Leader:
Alejandro Ortega (NJ) - Ortega mashed 30 home runs and stole 34 bases to become one of PEBA's first two 30/30 man. Mark Richardson also went 30/30 in 2008, although he played 2B that year.

Other Notables:

• Riley was again 2nd on the WAR list for SS's with 5.5, and took over the career lead from Boyd.
• Cortéz had another strong year, with 4.7 WAR and "only" 55 doubles.
• Boyd had a much less productive season, with only 3.1 WAR.

2009
WAR Leader:
George Riley puts up a 7.3 WAR season for West Virginia, walking 170 times!

Other Notables:

• Héctor Castillo (PS) was on his 3rd team in his 3rd PEBA season, but posted 6 WAR. This was the first of 5 All-Leather awards for him, too, all of which came as a Codger.
• Augusto Quiñones (AUR) came over from the LDBI at 30 years old. He'd hit 135 of his 162 career home runs for Aurora over the course of 5 seasons.
• Raúl García (KAL) wins SL Wunderkind with 4.3 WAR and a league leading 69 SB's.
• Cortéz has a 122 game season, impacted by injury but performs well when healthy.
• Kevin McNeill beings to make his presence felt in Florida's lineup.

2010
WAR Leader:
Bud Hoffman (YUM) had a career year with 7.5 WAR. The big thing for him was staying healthy. In his 11 seasons he played more than 135 games just twice, and he was constantly hurt.

Other Notables:

• Cortéz was second on the WAR list, this time hitting 66 doubles. That's still the 2nd most in PEBA history behind his 2007 total.
• Riley's WAR is down to 5.5 after walking "only" 160 times.
• García had a solid season at 4.2 WAR.
• Richardson signs with Aurora to be their shortstop after 2 years as Florida's second baseman. He plays 10 games.

2011
WAR Leader:
George Riley has 9.8 WAR, hitting a league leading .359 with 146 walks (.487 OBP). Tsumemasa Morimoto wins IL Royal Raker after his second consecutive 50 HR season.
At this point of his career, Riley has 34.8 WAR and Cortéz has 25.0 to be second on the shortstop career list.

Other Notables:

• Mark Richardson and his 7.6 WAR win SL Royal Raker
• García and Cortéz have similar numbers with the bat, hitting .319 and .314, respectively. Their OPS's are .819 and .814. García's 46 SB's make him the more valuable player.

2012
WAR Leader:
Mark Richardson (AUR) has a second consecutive season with an OPS over 1.000. Teammate Cory Pierce won Royal Raker.

Other Notables:

• García is 26 and suffers injury. He'll never be the same player he was before, although he'll be an All-Star four more times.
• Riley suffers his first significant injury, limiting him to 17 games.
• Sophomore Ronald Lowry makes his first All-Star game, although his season totals don't reflect what we remember him for.
• Fargo calls up Ken Keddy, who debuted last season at 20, for good midway through the year.
• This was a bit of a transition year for shortstops with the best performers largely being players we've since forgotten.

2013
WAR Leader:
George Riley draws 119 walks in 136 games, good enough for 6.7 WAR.

Other Notables:

• Richardson is second with 5.6 WAR and 29 home runs despite playing only 110 games.
• Lowry establishes himself clearly. He hits 36 home runs in 125 games en route to 5.0 WAR.
• 26 year old Tsunesaburo Sugimoto is 6th with 3.8 WAR for Fargo... wait wasn't that Ken Keddy's spot? Keddy did spend some time at SS in 2013, but slid over to 3B for this season. Sugimoto's 7-year injury plagued career would have Keddy back at short in 2014.
• Cortéz has a nice bounce back season after an injury limited him to 70 games in 2012.

2014
WAR Leader:
Ken Keddy (FAR) hits 36 home runs and posts 6.1 WAR to lead the position.

Other Notables:

• Alfredo Vega (BAK) posts 4.0 WAR to be second on the list in a down year for the position. Todd Hanna and Jorge Velasco are right there with him.
• Riley is 5th at the position, now with the Nutmeggers, followed closely by García.
• Lowry has the first of a 2-year sabatical to third base, where he posts 6.3 WAR.
• 22 year old Chris Long posts 2.6 WAR in 44 games. He hit .400 over 175 AB! After the 2014 season, London and Crystal Lake came to terms to swap Francisco Robles and Chris Long... along with a few other players going different ways.

2015
WAR Leader:
Velasco and Keddy each post seasons of 4.6 WAR, with Velasco edging Keddy on decimal points. Both post OPS's below .800.

Other Notables:

• José Rivera, who was an All-Star and All-Leather winner at 3B in 2014 is an All-Star at SS in 2015, with a career high 13 home runs.
• Cortéz, Vega, and Riley all have good years.
• Long, in his first season with London, posts 3.6 WAR for 7th.
• Lowry posts 7.0 WAR as a third baseman.

2016
WAR Leader:
Ronald Lowry (CON) and his 35 HR, 115 RBI, 6.6 WAR season win IL Royal Raker. That seems like a low WAR total compared to what many players are putting up now, but it did lead IL hitters, as did his .925 OPS.

Other Notables:

• Long is second among IL shortstops with 5.0 WAR, hitting .313 on the season.
• Rivera's 3rd with 4.3 WAR
• García makes his 4th All-Star team, posting 3.8 WAR in 105 games. He leads the SL with 9 triples.

2017
WAR Leader:
Long and Lowry each post 5.6 WAR. Long hits .343 with 14 HR's, while Lowry hits .282 with 28. Long's OPS is .010 higher, although Lowry's OPS+ is much higher due to Connecticut's ballpark.

Other Notables:

• Emílio Manuel puts up 4.5 WAR for 3rd on the list.
• Raúl Medina has a good season for Florida, hitting 30 home runs.
• García is an All-Star for the 5th and final time, this his first with Tempe.
• Cortéz, at 33, has one last good season, posting 3.6 WAR.
• Richardson retires after the season, 3rd in career WAR for SS's behind Riley and Cortéz.

2018
WAR Leader:
Chris Long (LON) puts up 6.0 WAR. He hits 20 home runs and leads the IL with a .345 average. It's the only year of his career with over 150 games played, although that's slightly arbitrary given he had 4 seasons of 140+ games.

Other Notables:

• Gil Sterling (KAL) hits 23 home runs and posts 4.5 WAR in his first full season.
• Lowry's 3rd with 4.0 WAR, injuries limiting him a bit. He still hits 29 home runs.
• Aurora's Rivera has 3.9 WAR in a solid year.
• Medina hits another 23 home runs.
• Manuel's .827 OPS is the highest among regular SS's thanks to his 82 BB's.
• Riley's lone season in Palm Springs sees him post 3.3 WAR, down the board a bit, but he is 38 at this point. He'll play two more years, with his final 6 seasons coming for 6 different teams.

2019
WAR Leader:
Ronald Lowry (CON) is back for his 2nd Royal Raker in 4 seasons. Again, his 6.5 WAR is low for a RR season, but he leads this IL with 84 extra base hits and 350 total bases. He hits a career high 41 home runs and 40 doubles.

Other Notables:

• Manuel is 3rd in SS WAR, hitting .301, belting 15 home runs, and drawing 91 walks.
• Long's 4.6 WAR is right behind Manuel.
• Rivera is slightly behind them at 4.2. He doesn't have their power or hit for quite the same average, but he strikes out way less.
• Juan Hernández posts 3.7 WAR in his rookie season after a 31 game trial in 2018.

2020
WAR Leader:
Chris Holmes (ARL) had been a second baseman to this point of his career, but now that he's with Arlington he's moved over to shortstop. His 4.0 WAR lead the position in a down year.

Other Notables:

• Long struggles to a .287 average (his lowest in 5 seasons), but is still 2nd with 3.9 WAR.
• Keddy (did you forget him?) has been posting WAR's in the 2.x's, but is back at 3.8 in his first year with Kalamazoo.
• Manuel's in 4th for WAR but his OPS again leads regulars at .847.
• Hernández is 7th with 3.1 WAR.
• Lowry follows up his 2nd Royal Raker with just 104 games and 2.2 WAR (13th)
• Riley retires after the season, 1st in SS WAR for his career, 10 clear of Lowry in 2nd place and 15 clear of Cortéz.

Observations

• Riley feels very much, to me at least, like the class of this era. His career matches this time frame exactly. In his day, everyone knew the crazy number of walks he drew was huge. Although he wasn't the only player who had crazy walk totals in those days (we'll get to Yoshino Miyata eventually), he drew more than anyone*.
• Richardson feels like he's Pat Lilly lite. He had a peak that was great, but his peak wasn't as dominant as Lilly's and his career wasn't long.
• Lowry and Long both require going into the 2020's to finish out their career, but they are the class of the second half of this era. As Lowry's employer, I was well aware of Long's challenge in London for positional supremacy.
• I'd pretty much forgotten Cortéz. He was good!
• Just like 2B, we had a bunch of promising young SS's who didn't have long careers. García sticks out notably here. He played till 35 but wasn't much good the last few years.
• Ken Keddy hit 330 home runs in his career and was an All-Star just once. That's the definition of solid regular.
• I recall coveting Emílio Manuel's walks, but never being confident he'd be in the lineup.

* Riley drew 1393 walks from 2007 to 2020. After the 2020 season, he was still 1 walk ahead of Rob Raines, who had 1392 from 2010 to 2020.

[Lions]

I’m surprised to see that Juan Hernandez didn’t appear on any of the PEBA’s most valuable player lists, but I know he was injured a few times early in his career as well.

Those lists were always based on 2-years worth of PEBA stats. Prospects and guys who hadn't done much in the majors yet were almost never on the list. Hernández didn't have two good seasons until 2019-2020, and the 2020 list was published prior to the season. I'm guessing he'd have made it in 2021, but certainly in 2022.