PEBA Perspective

[Lions]

One of the thing I've been trying to understand about some of our HoF candidates is how to look at the careers of previous PEBA players in perspective of their time. This thread will be dedicated to looking at careers in some different ways, particularly with an eye towards making sense of some of our early PEBA players so we can judge them in comparison to their peers as well as those that have come after.

First up, is a look at dominance from a WAR perspective. This is NOT going to be a look that compilers show up well in.

I'm going to call this, weighted WAR Ink. Some of you may know about Bill James' hall of fame metrics that include Black Ink, Gray Ink, and HoF Standards. Black Ink gives players a score (weighted by stat category) for how many times a player led their league in a stat. Gray Ink does the same, but instead of leading the leeague, you only need to be in the top 10. HoF Standards is a topic for another day.

My weighted WAR Ink score is simply going to be as follows, you get points for finishing the top 10 in WAR in a season. 1 point for 10th, 2 points for 9th, all the way up to 10 points for leading all of PEBA. This is going to really reward the guys who dominated for a short period of time, although sustained excellence will also show up. Still, because this is all of PEBA, you pretty much have to be top 5 in your league, IL or SL, to get on the list.

Through 2038, the top 50 weighted WAR Ink scores are as follows (+ indicates Hall of Famer):
Batters
Rank, Score - Player (Career)

Code: Select all

  1.  70 - Gordon Knopp (2032-2039)
  2.  63 - Rob Raines (2010-2029)+
  3.  54 - Alejandro Luján (2022-2039)
  4.  48 - Luis Cedeño (2021-2039)
  5.  45 - Pat Barry (2021-2039)
  6.  42 - Andrés Hernández (2021-2036)
  7.  38 - Ricardo Mateo (2028-2039)
  7.  38 - Michael Roberts (2034-2039)
  9.  37 - Ronald Lowry (2011-2025)
 10.  34 - Pat Lilly (2007-2021)+
 11.  33 - Rafael Suárez (2011-2024)
 11.  33 - Clarence Carpenter (2022-2039)
 11.  33 - Pat Watson (2024-2039)
 14.  29 - George Riley (2007-2020)
 15.  27 - Vito van Wondel (2032-2039)
 16.  26 - Jeff Cline (2007-2016)
 17.  25 - Don Mercer (2016-2033)+
 18.  23 - Yoshino Miyata (2007-2017)
 18.  23 - Pablo Ortíz (2028-2039)
 20.  22 - Gilbert Murray (2015-2030)
 20.  22 - Tomás Martínez (2027-2039)
 22.  21 - Ollie Morris (2007-2015)
 22.  21 - Nathan Carter (2015-2026)
 22.  21 - Javier Drake (2030-2039)
 25.  19 - Leonard Ramsey (2016-2026)
 25.  19 - Bartolo Mora (2025-2039)
 27.  18 - Dave Nash (2016-2029)
 27.  18 - Carlos Ryan (2022-2035)
 29.  16 - Chris Holmes (2010-2026)
 29.  16 - Jason Corbett (2013-2022)
 31.  15 - Ramón Flores (2007-2016)
 31.  15 - Britt Martin (2009-2018)
 31.  15 - Rodrigo Vásquez (2030-2039)
 34.  14 - Rubén Cruz (2007-2016)
 34.  14 - Ángel Cortéz (2015-2026)
 34.  14 - Ramón Leach (2016-2027)
 34.  14 - António Santos (2027-2039)
 38.  13 - Ralph Gunther (2011-2023)
 38.  13 - Chris Long (2014-2033)
 38.  13 - Javier Padilla (2016-2027)
 41.  12 - Steve McDonald (2007-2020)
 41.  12 - Ronald Harmon (2012-2023)
 41.  12 - Jerry Long (2022-2033)
 41.  12 - Okitsugu Shimizu (2024-2031)
 41.  12 - Zhao-dao Lew (2036-2039)
 46.  11 - Manuel González (2007-2017)
 46.  11 - Arthur Collins (2015-2023)
 46.  11 - Wilson Muñóz (2019-2036)
 46.  11 - Shane Willis (2025-2039)
 46.  11 - Sandor Vis (2032-2039)
 46.  11 - Juan Mendoza (2032-2039)
 46.  11 - Jin-song Zambrano (2035-2039)

Knopp is already atop this list!
Hall of Famer Tsumemasa Morimoto was never in the top 10 in PEBA WAR.
A great example of the compiler vs. peak department here is that Ronald Lowry (#9) vs. Chris Long (#38) disparity.

Pitchers
Rank, Score - Player (Career)

Code: Select all

  1. 125 - Markus Hancock (2008-2026)+
  2.  85 - Enrique Vázquez (2024-2037)+
  3.  74 - Michel Provost (2016-2030)+
  4.  64 - Conan McCullough (2007-2018)+
  5.  57 - Randy Smith (2016-2032)+
  6.  52 - Chris York (2012-2028)+
  7.  51 - Manuel Corona (2012-2028)+
  8.  41 - Motoyuki Hatsutori (2024-2033)
  9.  35 - Dean O'Monahan (2007-2022)+
 10.  33 - José Ojeda (2035-2039)
 11.  31 - Nelson Anderson (2007-2017)
 11.  31 - Jorge Castillo (2026-2039)
 13.  29 - Luppe van Dam (2029-2039)
 14.  28 - Gunner MacGruder (2014-2029)+
 14.  28 - Neil Maes (2019-2032)
 14.  28 - Yakamochi Suitani (2021-2034)+
 14.  28 - Ernesto Molina (2021-2035)
 14.  28 - Dean McNeil (2023-2038)
 19.  27 - José Cruz (2007-2018)
 20.  26 - Víctor Matos (2007-2016)
 20.  26 - Fred Benjamin (2014-2029)
 22.  22 - Cheh Zhang (2034-2039)
 23.  21 - Félix Ortega (2011-2020)
 23.  21 - Cheong-sang Yun (2031-2039)
 25.  20 - Norberto Pacheco (2008-2014)
 25.  20 - Carlos Rivera (2014-2031)
 25.  20 - Owen Barse (2030-2039)
 28.  19 - Jeffrey Mendoza (2028-2039)
 29.  18 - Alfredo Velázquez (2014-2026)
 30.  17 - Armando Gallegos (2009-2024)
 30.  17 - Aaron Goater (2037-2039)
 32.  16 - Kiyoemon Takeda (2011-2014)
 33.  15 - Félix Maese (2014-2027)
 33.  15 - Miguel Cantú (2015-2028)
 33.  15 - Julián Thomas (2017-2028)
 33.  15 - Orlando Trujillo (2028-2039)
 37.  14 - Pedro Barrón (2010-2016)
 37.  14 - Conner Hurst (2017-2033)
 37.  14 - John Turner (2021-2037)
 37.  14 - Jorge Medina (2027-2038)
 37.  14 - Roberto Rivera (2032-2039)
 42.  13 - José Díaz (2021-2032)
 42.  13 - Manuel Pacheco (2021-2034)
 44.  12 - George Thompson (2007-2014)
 44.  12 - Félix Garza (2019-2027)
 44.  12 - Takanobu Shirai (2021-2036)
 47.  11 - Kijuro Kojima (2007-2015)
 47.  11 - Roberto Rodríguez (2010-2027)
 47.  11 - Seon-chin Pak (2019-2028)
 47.  11 - Iwao Maruyama (2027-2038)

Hall of Famer Francisco Robles has a score of 1... more of a HoF compiler.
It's easy to forget how good Motoyuki Hatsutori was given the albatross contract he was known for at the end of his career.
And of course... is José Ojeda already a Hall of Famer at the age of 25? I mean, he's not technically eligible unless he plays 5 more years, right?


For my money, looking at both these lists, I think the top 10 on both have good Hall of Fame arguments as peak players. Although... that would mean Hatsutori should get in! Does he get any credit for dominating the LRS for 3 years after the merger?

[Borealis]

Super interesting take on these players - some I have to confess I've never heard of (I'm looking at you Britt Martin).

[Lions]

Super interesting take on these players - some I have to confess I've never heard of (I'm looking at you Britt Martin).

Mike Britt + Britt Martin = Mike Martin

I don't remember him either... I thought maybe he played for Cyrstal Lake, but it was Charleston.

[Lions]

This next view is going to require some explaining...

The above list of the top 10 WAR players getting a WAR Ink score is designed to show peak. It doesn't capture extended quality careers. So I thought I'd make up a pseudo stat for the opposite, too. I realize WAR totals are supposed to capture that already, but let's take a look at how consistently useful players were.

What I did was take a look at how many seasons a player had with at least X WAR. I then ranked them in order of number of seasons at that level. Took the top 25 and gave them each points based on their rankings like I did above. So a player with the 25th most 2 WAR seasons would get 1 point for their 2 WAR seasons. A player with the 24th most 2 WAR seasons would get 2 points for those 2 WAR seasons. I did this for 1 WAR through 6 WAR seasons, then added up the ranking scores. I went out to 25 places because too many players missed out if I kept it at the top 10. I also cut it off at 6 WAR because anything above that really gets into peak type performances captured in the previous post, and the whole point of this is to take the opposite perspective.

It should be noted that active players who haven't played too many years will naturally have a harder time getting high on these lists. They simply haven't played enough seasons to rank among the top players at some of the different levels. Similarly, big bang players with shorter careers won't show as highly.

Example:
I'm not going to show you all the data, because it's just too much, but I'll give this example to help you understand: Alejandro Luján

Luján is one of the best players from both a career and a peak perspective. He's a 2-time Royal Raker and 9-time All-Star.

He has 17 seasons with at least 1 WAR. Rob Raines has 20 such seasons. Juan Hernández and Pedro Rodríguez each have 18 such seasons. So Luján ranks 4th on the 1 WAR season list. That gets him 22 points.

Luján has 16 seasons with at least 2 WAR. Raines again leads here with 19 such seasons. Hernández only has 15 of them, so he ranks 5th, behind Luján. Luján is actually tied for 2nd with Pat Barry and Rodríguez, so the 3 of them each earn 24 points for 2 WAR seasons.

At the other end of the spectrum, Luján has 8 seasons with 6+ WAR. He's actually got one over 8 WAR and 5 more over 7 WAR, but we're lumping them all together for this list. Even Raines doesn't beat him, as he and Luis Cedeño each have just 7 seasons with 6+ WAR, so Luján gets the full 25 points for leading in this category.

Basically, I did this for all 6 WAR season buckets (1+ WAR to 6+ WAR) and then add up the ranking scores. Let's see what we got...
(+ indicates Hall of Famer)

Rank, Score - Player (Career)
Batters

Code: Select all

 1. 149 - Rob Raines (2010-2029)+
 2. 143 - Alejandro Luján (2022-2039)
 3. 135 - Luis Cedeño (2021-2039)
 4. 119 - Pat Barry (2021-2039)
 5.  97 - Pat Watson (2024-2039)
 6.  86 - Don Mercer (2016-2033)+
 7.  77 - Ricardo Mateo (2028-2039)
 8.  76 - Marcos Sánchez (2020-2039)
 9.  70 - Pablo Ortíz (2028-2039)
10.  65 - Pedro Flores (2024-2039)
11.  60 - Naomi Honma (2027-2039)
12.  59 - Andrés Hernández (2021-2036)
13.  58 - Wilson Muñóz (2019-2036)
13.  58 - Bartolo Mora (2025-2039)
15.  57 - Juan Hernández (2018-2037)
15.  57 - Clarence Carpenter (2022-2039)
17.  56 - Yoshino Miyata (2007-2017)
17.  56 - Christian Webb (2021-2039)
17.  56 - Tomás Martínez (2027-2039)
20.  54 - Chris Long (2014-2033)
20.  54 - Danny Burton (2021-2038)
22.  50 - Pedro Rodríguez (2021-2039)
23.  44 - Ramiro Salinas (2027-2039)
24.  43 - Steve McDonald (2007-2020)
25.  42 - Vern Duncan (2023-2039)
25.  42 - Raúl Ortega (2025-2039)
25.  42 - António Santos (2027-2039)
25.  42 - Gordon Knopp (2032-2039)
29.  38 - Dave Petersen (2021-2039)
30.  33 - Pat Lilly (2007-2021)+
30.  33 - Ronald Lowry (2011-2025)
32.  30 - Rafael Suárez (2011-2024)
32.  30 - Mike Britt (2016-2033)
32.  30 - Germán Hernández (2021-2034)
35.  29 - Javier Drake (2030-2039)
36.  25 - George Riley (2007-2020)
36.  25 - Ramón Flores (2007-2016)
36.  25 - Brad Davis (2018-2038)
39.  21 - Ken Keddy (2011-2027)
39.  21 - Felipe Días (2020-2037)
41.  20 - Ollie Morris (2007-2015)
41.  20 - Vito van Wondel (2032-2039)
41.  20 - Michael Roberts (2034-2039)
44.  15 - José Rivera (2010-2026)
45.   8 - Chris Holmes (2010-2026)
45.   8 - Shigekazu Shimizu (2021-2037)
45.   8 - Tomás Flores (2023-2039)
45.   8 - Adrián Fuentes (2023-2039)
45.   8 - Shu-de Mu (2030-2039)
50.   7 - Jeff Cline (2007-2016)

Our classic Long vs. Lowry question of career vs peak comes out as expected here. Long is ranked 20th thanks to a lot of 1+ and 2+ WAR seasons. He doesn't actually score any points for 3+ or 4+ WAR seasons, but he does again for 5+ WAR seasons. Lowry ranks lower at 30th. He only scores for 4+, 5+, and 6+ seasons.

Gordon Knopp is right between then at 25th on the list. His short career means he doesn't get credit for lower WAR thresholds as he simply doesn't have enough seasons. He gets credit for 5+ and 6+ WAR seasons, though, as few players have as many of those as he does.

Rank, Score - Player (Career)
Pitchers

Code: Select all

 1. 147 - Markus Hancock (2008-2026)+
 2. 140 - Manuel Corona (2012-2028)+
 3. 129 - Randy Smith (2016-2032)+
 4. 114 - Dean O'Monahan (2007-2022)+
 5.  92 - Fred Benjamin (2014-2029)
 6.  91 - Chris York (2012-2028)+
 7.  85 - Carlos Rivera (2014-2031)
 8.  84 - Jorge Castillo (2026-2039)
 9.  82 - Enrique Vázquez (2024-2037)+
10.  78 - Kenny Ashley (2017-2036)
11.  76 - Francisco Robles (2012-2030)+
11.  76 - Yakamochi Suitani (2021-2034)+
13.  75 - Conan McCullough (2007-2018)+
14.  73 - Armando Gallegos (2009-2024)
15.  72 - Nelson Anderson (2007-2017)
16.  66 - José Cruz (2007-2018)
17.  64 - Félix Maese (2014-2027)
17.  64 - Michel Provost (2016-2030)+
19.  62 - Clayton Lewis (2016-2032)
19.  62 - Ricardo Pérez (2022-2039)
21.  57 - Gunner MacGruder (2014-2029)+
22.  54 - Ernesto Molina (2021-2035)
23.  53 - Roberto Rodríguez (2010-2027)
24.  46 - Dean McNeil (2023-2038)
25.  43 - Neil Maes (2019-2032)
26.  39 - Jim MacCowan (2023-2038)
27.  37 - Alfredo Aranda (2016-2036)
28.  34 - Takanobu Shirai (2021-2036)
29.  31 - Luppe van Dam (2029-2039)
30.  26 - Motoyuki Hatsutori (2024-2033)
31.  25 - Bob Burns (2023-2039)
32.  23 - Víctor Matos (2007-2016)
33.  19 - Bill Gallagher (2017-2033)
33.  19 - John Turner (2021-2037)
33.  19 - Owen Barse (2030-2039)
36.  13 - Kijuro Kojima (2007-2015)
36.  13 - Cristo Santiago (2014-2033)
36.  13 - Jim Ratzlaff (2014-2030)
36.  13 - Miguel Cantú (2015-2028)
36.  13 - Jeffrey Mendoza (2028-2039)
41.  12 - Richard Neely (2026-2039)
42.  11 - Norberto Pacheco (2008-2014)
42.  11 - Kiyoemon Takeda (2011-2014)
42.  11 - Julián Thomas (2017-2028)
45.   9 - Félix Ortega (2011-2020)
46.   8 - Bryan Stewart (2007-2015)
47.   7 - George Lee (2018-2031)
48.   6 - Bill Lewis (2012-2027)
48.   6 - Anastasio López (2014-2028)
48.   6 - Raúl Cruz (2016-2032)

Take a look at where the pitching Hall of Famers rank on this list. Robles is at #11, a testament to his longevity and quality play.
José Ojeda, in only his 5th season, doesn't even make the list despite getting a couple of points for 6+ WAR seasons.
I don't think I've thought enough about Castillo's possible HoF case (or really much at all).

As with the previous list, I think you can make interesting cases for any of the top 10 on these lists.

[Borealis]

It warmed my heart to see Kojima on the list at 36. He was one of my early favorites - an inaugural player who in his 9th season with Aurora went out in his second start with a CEI ulnar ligament tear. During his first 8-seasons (that included 19-games for his original team - London) he averaged well over 200 IP and was as dependable as any starter on those early Aurora teams during the League's first decade. It would have been fun to see how he would have worked out if he had played another 4-5-6 years. I wonder how he would have fit into the 2019 pitching staff.

[Lions]

FYI, I updated these lists now that the 2039 season is complete.

[Lions]

MLB averages 2.26 Hall of Famers per season played. PEBA is now at 33 seasons played. At the same rate as MLB, we would have 74 Hall of Famers.

We currently have 15 players in the PEBA hall. If we elect 3 players every year from now on, we will hit 2.26 players per PEBA season in 2119. We would get to 1.5 Hall of Famers per PEBA season in 2062 (23 seasons from now, or approximately 7 year real time).

[Hitmen]

So your saying we should induct some more?

[Lions]

So your saying we should induct some more?

I have a pretty hard time getting to 74... but we're at 0.45 per season.