2037 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments, Etc.

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2037 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments, Etc.

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As season's come to an end, PEBA teams are subject to a series of financial tests, on top of what the OOTP game engine provides, that can cause a team's Fan Interest, Fan Loyalty and Market Size to potentially shift upward or downwards. I shall review these for you now.

1. OOTP in-game adjustments
We see game generated changes at the end of each season, and though I suspect their generation centers around much of what we examine, I cannot say with any certainty at all what causes these changes. OOTP game generated changes in Market Size are as follows:

Increase:
For the first time since in-game 2034, there were no in-game generated increases in Market Size.

Decrease:
None in 2037

OOTP game generated changes in Fan Loyalty are as follows:

Increase:
Duluth moves from GOOD to VERY GOOD
Okinawa moves from GOOD to VERY GOOD
Shin Seiki moves from GOOD to VERY GOOD
West Virginia moves from GOOD to VERY GOOD

The Warriors, Shisa, Evas and Alleghenies will be ineligible for out of game Loyalty increases the next two next season.

Decrease:
None in 2037

2. Financial Management Penalties
As per The Constitution:

Article IV of the Constitution, regarding Financial Management outlines the following penalties:
Constitution wrote:
  • a) For every $5M below league cash minimum (-$35M) a team ends a season with, the team will lose a point of fan interest: -$40M is a point lost, -$45M is 2 points lost, etc.
  • b) An additional fan interest penalty is also assessed to teams who end consecutive seasons with negative total cash and who have failed to make progress towards break-even. Consecutive seasons that move deeper into debt will trigger the penalty. Consecutive seasons that move towards solvency will not trigger a penalty.
  • c) Teams that suffer losses in excess of -$30,000,000 (Season Profit/Losses figure) will also suffer a loss of one market size. Teams may chose to seek Owner-Provided Cash Relief to avoid this penalty (see below). Owner-Provided Cash Relief is capped at $10M – thus teams that suffer loses greater than -$40M will lose one Market size.
  • d) 1st-year GMs shall be exempt from these penalties above, unless it is deemed by the Board that they are negligent in their handling of the team.
  • e) Losses in excess of -$35,000,000 will be reviewed by the Board and could be grounds for dismissal from the league.
  • f) Intentionally driving a team’s debt beyond the -$35,000,000 limit, such as by releasing multiple expensive contracts during one season, will be grounds for immediate dismissal, pending Board investigation.
Cash Minimum:
Last year seven teams finished with a negative total - this year there were 6 teams. Two teams pushed the envelope, finishing at -$32M+. One is a long-time successful club fallen on hard times, the other had a horrid financial season, as noted below.

Consecutive, Increasing Negative Balance:
Three teams fit this category, a bottom line of losing more in 2037 than they did in 2036 - Bakersfield (-$9M in 2036 and -$33M in 2037), Havana (-$1M and -$16M) and Kalamazoo (-$1M and -$9M) each loose a point of Fan Interest.

Profit/Loss greater than -$30M:
There was only one team that finished in this category for the second straight season.
Charleston lost a whopping -$67.7M. They will lose a point of Market Size - from AVERAGE to BELOW AVERAGE, as they are well beyond the penalty avoidance remedy.

3. Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments
The PEBA also looks at Fan Expectations and Team performance as it relates to Loyalty and Market Size, and we used the same rubric and formula that we have since 2028. As stated by the Constitution:
Constitution wrote:
  • A team’s performance has the potential to affect its fan loyalty and market size. Since expectations are different in different markets, each team will be reviewed based on the expectations for their market. Teams with the largest markets and largest budgets will have the greatest expectations. Teams in smaller markets with smaller budgets will have lesser expectations. Teams will be awarded or penalized based on how they fared against those expectations.
  • The team that exceeds expectations by the greatest amount will receive a market size increase. The next 4 teams who most exceeded expectations will see a fan loyalty increase.
  • The team that performs the worst against expectations will see a market size decrease. The next 4 teams who most faltered against expectations will see a fan loyalty decrease.
  • Expectations will be based on market size, team budget, playoff appearances in the last ten seasons, and team record over the last 5 seasons. Points are awarded/subtracted based on team record, place in division, playoff appearance, and winning a championship.
  • A minimum of 2 years must pass between fan loyalty changes, and a minimum of 3 years must pass between market size changes. Winning a PEBA championship makes a team exempt from market size/fan loyalty drops for the next 3 years.
As such, the idea is a team goes into a season with Expectations, and those are based on Market size (larger Market, more expectations), Budget size (spend more money, more is expected), and your record over the past 5-seasons and play-off appearances over the past 10-seasons - playoff spots carry a little more fan hope over the long-term. A team's results are measure against League averages to create an Expectation score. Like-wise, a team is graded on their current performance - in essence, did you meet expectations? A performance score is determined similarly to the Expectation score, using 2037 Final Record, Division Standing and Playoff finish (all teams receive a minimal score of 1). The difference between Performance and Expectation is your score. The results are below.

This year's team that garnered the highest score may not be a surprise to anyone. The Niihama-shi Ghosts parlayed their 2036 upset win in the PEC into a second straight P/L top score - the first time a club has had consecutive seasons at the top since at least 2028 (maybe ever). The Ghosts and their young club outlasted a loaded Rising Sun Division, before losing to SL Champions Toyama in the Division Series. Having earned themselves an increase in Market Size (VERY BIG to HUGE) last season, they are exempt from P/L market changes for two more seasons. Finishing 2nd (also for a second straight season) are the Scottish Claymores who receive a Loyalty (GOOD to VERY GOOD) boost last season and are exempt for one more season. Finishing 3rd – but being exempt from changes due to their in-game change, was Duluth. SL Champs Toyama (in-game '35) and London (P/L in '35) finished 4th and 5th, but both were exempt from change. This was the first since at least 2028 (maybe ever) that all of the Top Five were exempt from change. Congrats to all of the Top 5 for an excellent season.

The bottom of the barrel begins with Bakersfield, who was last year's poorest performer, and this year they see a drop in loyalty - from AVERAGE to BELOW AVERAGE. They will be exempt from loyalty changes through 2039. Shin Seiki, Havana and Fargo are the next three teams at the bottom who would have received a decreased loyalty - Havana's second straight venture into the bottom of the barrel and for the Evas, it's their sixth straight bottom five finish. Fargo finishes in the bottom five for the first time since 2035. The Leones received a drop last season and will be exempt next season, while the Evas will also be exempt until after next season. Fargo is exempt due to their 2035 loyalty decrease, and will be eligible next season. The Ghosts repeat may be a surprise, but maybe not surprising is the last place finish of the Neo-Tokyo Akira. Failing to make the playoffs for the 4th consecutive season after the high expectations of 5 playoff appearances in 6-years, the club has finished last in the Rising Sun the last three seasons - and had the worst record in the PEBA in 2037. It's been a hard fall from their 2032 PEC appearance (a 4-2 loss to West Virginia), and it wipes out the Market Size gain the Akira earned in 2029. They drop from BIG to ABOVE AVERAGE.

Lastly, 2037 Rodriguez Cup winner West Virginia is exempt from negative future change for three years, extending through 2040. 2033 Champ Florida, thanks to their three-straight titles maintains exemption through 2038, and Niihama-shi through 2039.

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Current PEBA Board Members
Mike Topham (Borealis) - Commissioner
RJ Ermola (Sandgnats)
Dylan Krupilis (Wind Dancers)
Reg LeBlanc (Trendsetters)
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