Adrian ‘Javelin’ Peterson - Keltner List

[Apollos]

Adrian ‘Javelin’ Peterson - Keltner List




The first overall selection in the 2015 PEBA draft by the then-Yuma Bulldozers, Adrian Peterson was a light that shined extremely bright for a handful of seasons, and who made the transition from starting to high-leverage relief duty perhaps a bit too early to make him a legitimate candidate for the HoF.  Given that no relief pitcher has yet been inducted into the PEBA’s Hall, perhaps Peterson makes for a nice test case as few relievers in the league’s history have been as dominant for a significant period of time while also posting several seasons of top-level starting.




His introduction to the big leagues, along with a carefully cultivated and homegrown core led Yuma to its one and only PEC appearance in 2020 as part of the team’s most successful run where they reached the postseason 4 straight seasons, though he was traded midway through the 2021 season to Florida.  Peterson spent another 3 seasons with the then-Featherheads prior to signing with Aurora where he spent two years before closing out his career in 2027 with Palm Springs. 




Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?




No.  Peterson was a high-end reliever from the time he made the transition to the bullpen in 2020, but never managed to win the Reliever of the Year Award despite his multiple, outstanding seasons.  During the three year stretch he was a starter for Yuma (2017-2019), Peterson was consistently an All-Star level starter, but there were a number of other pitchers producing at a higher level.




Was he the best player on his team?




No.  Peterson was almost certainly the second best player on the 2018 and 2019 versions of Yuma (both of which were playoff squads), because he pitched alongside fellow HoF candidate Gunner MacGruder who made his debut during the 2014 season.  During his tenure in Florida, the Featherheads routinely sat atop the IL’s Dixie division and employed a number of legitimate stars.  The same can be said of Peterson’s two year stint in Aurora where he was but a cog in a machine that was churning out championship-level players at an astonishing rate.




Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?




No. Referencing the aforementioned lack of hardware, it’s difficult to make a strong case that Peterson was the very best reliever in the PEBA at any point during his career.  While his longevity and success as a reliever are unquestioned - particularly in an age of quick burn-out, recycled bullpen arms - Peterson never garnered enough support to be considered the best at his position in his sub-league, let alone the entire PEBA.




Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?




Peterson pitched in 5 postseasons though he started only 2 games among his career 23 postseason performances. While he pitched well in those opportunities, 38 innings and a 2.84 ERA to go along with a 1.05 WHIP fall near his career totals and otherwise point to a very good, but likely not exceptional pitcher.




Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?




No. There are both starting pitchers and relievers who are more accomplished and have yet to be inducted into the HoF.  




Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?




As would be expected, Peterson’s career numbers (a very respectable 2.52 ERA, 1127 IP, and 1193 K’s to go along with a 0.99 WHIP) make him most similar to a number of other excellent relievers who enjoyed extended periods of success throughout their PEBA careers.  In fact, no player with a similarity score of 800 or more was primarily a starting pitcher which suggests that Peterson ranks where he should amongst his contemporaries; as one of the best at what he did, at a position of considerably less total value to a club.




Do the players' numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?




While Peterson enjoyed a number of productive seasons, both his Black Ink and Gray Ink scores fall well below the level a reliever will likely need to approach HoF electability.  




Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?




Possibly.  Peterson posted a park-adjusted ERA+ of greater than 200 three times in his career (with three different clubs, impressively) and managed a career ERA+ of 162.  While it is somewhat anticipated that a dominant reliever would provide better than average ERA+ numbers given their role, it appears that Peterson consistently outperformed his peers in expected ERA when controlling for the environments he appeared in.




Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?




Probably not.  While he is certainly among the career relievers with the strongest case, it is likely (and this position is borne out by voting histories) that Merlin Peters remains the “best” relief pitcher who has yet to be elected to the HoF.  The two had fairly similar career arcs - despite Peters never having started - though Peters’ numbers are slightly better.




How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?




Peterson did not produce a season that would have put him in the thick of an MVP race, though his 2018 and 2019 seasons would have placed him in the running for a top-5 finish in the Golden Arm race.




How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?




Peterson was a 5 time All-Star and posted several additional seasons which could have been All-Star caliber were it not for the volatile, transitive nature of the position.




If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?




Given that Peterson never likely registered as the best player on his team, and because he was a reliever, it is unlikely he would have single-handedly fronted a team with championship ambitions.




What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes?  Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?




No.




Can you tell the story of PEBA without mentioning Anderson?




Ultimately, this probably comes down to how strongly you value bullpen arms in telling the story of great, but not championship teams.  Given his teams never won a championship, despite competing in the postseason and multiple times, and his lack of hardware, Peterson is most likely an excellent relief pitcher who is unlikely to garner enough support to ever merit serious consideration for the HoF, which in many ways makes his candidacy a referendum on how individual voters value the position.

[Arroyos]

Great analysis, Brian. Javelin was very popular in Yuma. If we hadn’t been blessed with Gunner’s arm, Javelin would have been our #1 starter.

[Lions]

Peterson was valued extremely highly back in the day. I realize I wrote it, but he ranked 2nd on this list.

Great analysis, Brian. Javelin was very popular in Yuma. If we hadn’t been blessed with Gunner’s arm, Javelin would have been our #1 starter.

I remember it being fairly controversial when you moved him to the pen. As a bullpen arm, that value was condensed to fewer innings. By the end of the year, it was looked on more favorably after Yuma won their first and only division title atop 3 other 90+ win teams.

I thought Florida would try starting him, but they didn't really.

[Sandgnats]

"Can you tell the story of PEBA without mentioning Anderson or Peterson?"

No.