Keltner List – Nelson ‘Nails’ Anderson

[Apollos]

Nelson ‘Nails’ Anderson was one of the league’s “Big Bang” players, selected early in the league’s 2007 inaugural draft at the age of 27. Despite this, he produced a star caliber 10 season career for the Crystal Lake Sandgnats, the only PEBA team he ever played for, prior to announcing his retirement following the 2017 season, and still managing a dominant pitching line.



Anderson was largely regarded as one of the best starters in baseball during his prime, but is hindered in his candidacy based on the abbreviated nature of his career and having pitched for only 11 seasons. His candidacy thus far has not seen him top 32% on the ballot, and the decision to induct him likely comes down to whether a voter believes you give credit to Anderson for what he could have done, had he enjoyed a full career rather than debuting amidst the traditional ‘peak’ seasons at age 27.



Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?



No, there were simply too many great starting pitchers who occupied this space during the time Nelson Anderson pitched – chief among them, Markus Hancock. Anderson, despite his ability and durability, largely fell short of this standard but solidly occupied a place in the second tier among other luminaries such as Conan McCullough – who was likely regarded as the league’s Hancock before Hancock had debuted, Dean O’Monahan, and Victor Matos.



Was he the best player on his team?



Anderson played on a loaded Sandgnats roster which routinely competed for both the SL crown and the PEBA Championship year in and year out, but he was generally regarded as the #1 starter for the bulk of the time he was with the club. Along with Jose Cruz and Bryan Stewart, Anderson helped form the backbone of a rotation that would make the ‘Gnats one of the early, dominant clubs in PEBA history. Despite the competition from within his own roster, a strong case can be made that Anderson was the best player – on a year in, year out basis – during his time in Crystal Lake.



Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?



No; as noted above there were better pitchers who were also his contemporaries. Anderson was only 3 years into his PEBA career when Hancock debuted and it was the Fireworks’ show from then on, particularly in the SL. If we narrow this window to the pre-Hancock era, Anderson was clearly in the top tier of pitchers during the brief window of 2007-2010 following the PEBA’s introduction, but it is difficult to make a solid case that he was clearly superior to any of the other top arms during this time as a number of pitchers – to include his teammate Bryan Stewart – consistently ranked among the league leaders by a range of metrics during this time.



Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?



Yes. Anderson played and starred on 10 years worth of ‘Gnats teams that only missed the postseason once during this stretch (his final year). Anderson was an absolutely vital cog, certainly the team’s workhorse, and likely also it’s #1 starter for the bulk of this stretch. As a byproduct of the success those ‘Gnats teams had, Anderson made 21 starts in the postseason though he was generally just okay in those appearances, finishing with a 4.15 ERA across 136+ innings and an even 9-9 win-loss record.



Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?



Unlikely, but the answer is probably that Anderson is closer to the top than most would realize. Undeniably, his closest comp would be the recently inducted Conan McCullough. Both drafted in 2007 at the league’s inaugural selection meeting, the pair were contemporaries and fronted extremely strong rotations throughout their careers. Conan had the benefit of winning more hardware however, and had slightly better ERA, though Anderson’s Strikeout, K/9, and K/BB ratios are significantly better. A strong case can be made that much more recent retirees such as Gunnar MacGruder and Yakmochi Suitani were better players – and certainly benefited from having full careers whereas Anderson began his at age 27.



Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?



Going back to his most relevant comparables, Anderson actually stacks up very well with Conan McCullough who earned his place in the HoF last offseason. Despite pitching one fewer season at the ML level, all of Anderson’s traditional metrics compare favorably: Anderson started 339 games and compiled a 3.18 ERA to go along with 175 Wins through 2337 innings of work. McCullough started 371 games and posted a 2.63 ERA with 169 wins across 2330 innings. While Anderson posted a significantly better strikeout total, 2451 versus 2246, Anderson never enjoyed the heights that McCullough did across the PEBA’s first three seasons when Conan was absolutely dominant.



Victor ‘Alibi’ Matos has also seen similar success in his appearances on the HoF ballot and the pair are similarly comparable, though Anderson’s statistics are broadly stronger.



Do the players’ numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?



Without a broader pool of pitchers in the HoF, Anderson’s candidacy makes this a difficult question to answer as his number put him squarely in that select group of pitchers (along with Matos, O’Monahan, Francisco Robles, and MacGruder) who had very strong careers but may fall into a tier of very good but not great.



Anderson’s JAWS score is 60.1 compared to the current HoF average of 71, which is not significantly short of the mark. His Black Ink score however is 19 with the current average being 50 while his Gray Ink is an expectedly strong 178 compared to the HoF average of 187. These data point combine to indicate that he spent several seasons posting very good, but not elite numbers as borne out in the discussion above.



Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?



No, the ‘Gnats played at a fairly neutral park throughout Anderson’s career and his cumulative ERA+ 134 suggests he was in line with the other exceptional pitchers of his generation.



Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?



Going back to some of the earlier questions, he sits squarely within a group of about 6 pitchers who amassed exceptional careers, but perhaps were never truly the best of their time.



How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?



Hancock did his best to lock down the Golden Arm award in the SL beginning with his debut season in 2010, but Anderson did have a couple of seasons which would have put him in strong contention for the award. His 2012 season in particular stands out when Anderson compiled a 17-4 record across 30 starts and 225 innings with a 2.16 ERA, 294 K’s and a microscopic 0.92 WHIP. His WAR from that year (a somewhat unreliable statistic for PEBA pitchers) was a very strong 8.4 and he amassed a 210 ERA+. Since historical results were not available, we can assume Anderson finished solidly in the top 3 but likely would have lost out to a (typically) dominant Hancock that season who posted an 11 WAR campaign. Anderson had two further seasons posting 7+ WAR, in 2009 and 2010, and likely would have been a top 5 candidate among Golden Arm nominees in either season.



How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?



Surprisingly, Anderson was only elected to two All-Star teams, in 2008 and 2012. Particularly early in his career, Anderson would have been a strong candidate for a number of teams. Given that he posted 6 seasons of 6+ WAR, all with sub-3.00 ERA’s and 30+ starts while maintaining an exceptionally strong K/9 and K/BB ratios.



If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?



Given that he was generally the best (and most tenured) pitcher on his roster, there is no doubt that he could lead a perennial pennant contender to victory. The ‘Gnats competed in the postseason for 10 of the 11 years he was with the club.



What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?



No.



Can you tell the story of PEBA without mentioning Anderson?



I would argue that you cannot tell the story of the PEBA without mentioning the dominance of those early Crystal Lake teams who were in direct competition with Aurora and Bakersfield for SL supremacy on a yearly basis through the league’s first 10-15 campaigns. By that standard, Anderson played too prominent a role on the ‘Gnats not to be a significant factor in the discussion.