Neat Stuff, Post-Sim Thread: 2031, Season 25

[Arroyos]

In the "Ho Hum" Department, Yuma's Arroyos were eliminated this week. Now we can get serious about breaking our previous season's loss record.

[Dinosaurs]

Ouch, Fargo just lost staff ace Ernesto Molina for the remainder of the season and (fingers crossed) playoffs if we make it. Also lost reliever Ken Burns who was having one of his best seasons so not a small matter. Right now I'm going to slide rookie top pitching prospect Dave Dixon into Molina's rotation spot and see if he can light it up down the stretch.

The division is definitely tightening up after the Dinos go 2-4 this past sim and Crystal Lake and Kalamazoo are right there at 2 1/2 games out.

[Ghosts]

In WIL news, Ghosts star 1B, Bernardo Gonzalez, has hit 8 HRs in his last 7 games. With 13 games remaining, his 39 HRs currently place him 5 HRs behind the WIL record for most HRs in a season (44).

[Ghosts]

Also in a game that was likely very painful for the Duluth faithful, Jeffrey Mendoza out-dueled Orlando Trujillo in a 1-0 Bears victory.

[Fishermen]

I made a cumulative war ranking going into the last few sims of the season. Pretty interesting "broad stroke" sort of information here to those of you who find this sort of thing interesting.

Wow, I tried to run a lineup full of great fielders and my OWAR is still far over my DWAR.

[Arroyos]

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Nobody plays baseball the way Yuma does. They're in a league of their own!

[Alleghenies]

I just noticed the last SL Wildcard spot and most likely the SL Great Lakes Title will mostly be determined by how Aurora plays in last 11 games.

They have 2 vs CL, 6 vs KAL and 3 vs FAR.

[Ghosts]

I just noticed the last SL Wildcard spot and most likely the SL Great Lakes Title will mostly be determined by how Aurora plays in last 11 games.

They have 2 vs CL, 6 vs KAL and 3 vs FAR.

Seems like the Borealis may have become Badgers fans.

[Dinosaurs]

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Nobody plays baseball the way Yuma does. They're in a league of their own!

I gotta say, the team is looking like they are going to basically nab the theoretical "replacement level" team record, though Duluth is also coming hard for it.

[Dinosaurs]

Seems like the Great Lakes division has had some good division races that come down to the last week of the season in the past few years. Happy to see Kalamazoo in it and with six games left, although they have the tougher schedule, I am still pretty scared of my Dinos tanking against Aurora, who have had our number historically in the first three games of the next sim.

[Arroyos]

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Nobody plays baseball the way Yuma does. They're in a league of their own!

I gotta say, the team is looking like they are going to basically nab the theoretical "replacement level" team record, though Duluth is also coming hard for it.

What award is that? "Replacement Level?" Speak baseball, please. (But then remind what prizes we get for winning this unknown award.)

[Lions]

With just a few games left in the season, the Featherheads are -13 in pythagorean record* (StatsLab has them at -12 using pythagenpat, which calculates it differently) and would easily be a playoff team if they had played to their expected record. They "should" be at 98 wins instead of 85, which would make them the 3rd best IL team, comfortably in the 1st Wild Card slot instead of being 2.5 games out of the postseason with less than a week of games to go.

* Pythagorean record generally correlates pretty well with actual record when you're in the middle of the win percerntage spectrum, say a .400 to .600 record. Beyond that, the linear relationship doesn't quite hold as well. Pythagenpat, which adjusts the calculation's exponent based on runs scored and allowed, is a little better, but sill has the same issues. StatsLab is using Pythagenpat.

Is that as bad as it has ever been? Well, according to historical PEBA records, the answer is yes and no. The "no" part is because it's not the worst pythagorean record that a PEBA team has had, although it's close. It's not even the worst Florida performance against Pythagoras. They actually were at -14 in 2017. Aurora also had a -14 year. The difference, though, is that those two teams were dominant teams that won their divisions. This is really the first time a team has so dramatically underperformed their expected record that they lost out on a playoff spot. Of course, they've got a week still to pull off a minor miracle and make it in, so there is still some hope. There have been a couple of teams who drastically underperformed, but meeting their Pythag would still have been below the last wild card team.

Perennial powerhouse Aurora has had 3 seasons of -10 on their Pythag. Those all came early in PEBA history when they were winning over 100 games annually. One other team has had three season of -10 or more against Pythagoras... that would be Duluth.

Hartford's +14 in 2021 and Palm Springs +14 in 2014 are the record in the other direction, but even that didn't get either of them into the postseason. Yuma has had 4 seasons of +10 or more.

[Ghosts]

Interesting stuff, Frank. I wonder what some of the biggest playoff implications are in pythagorean variance. For instance, the Bears are currently -7 while Aurora is +6 - if Aurora steals the division, it will be in part because of that large 13 win difference.

[Arroyos]

Hartford's +14 in 2021 and Palm Springs +14 in 2014 ... didn't get either of them into the postseason. Yuma has had 4 seasons of +10 or more.

Clear evidence that the pythagorean calculations are as useless as most of old Pythagorus' beliefs, like that whopper we now call "metempsychosis." No one who believes in the transmigration of souls should be allowed anywhere near baseball statistics!

[Borealis]

Seems like the Great Lakes division has had some good division races that come down to the last week of the season in the past few years. Happy to see Kalamazoo in it and with six games left, although they have the tougher schedule, I am still pretty scared of my Dinos tanking against Aurora, who have had our number historically in the first three games of the next sim.

IDK - the past few years feels like the series has leaned Fargo's way...