2030 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments, Etc.

[Board of the PEBA]

As season's come to an end, PEBA teams are subject to a series of financial tests, on top of what the OOTP game engine provides, that can cause a team's Fan Interest, Fan Loyalty and Market Size to potentially shift upward or downwards. I shall review these for you now.

1. OOTP in-game adjustments
We see game generated changes at the end of each season, and though I suspect their generation centers around much of what we examine, I can not say with any certainty at all what causes these changes. OOTP game generated changes in Market Size are as follows:

Increase:
None in 2030

Decrease:
None in 2030

OOTP game generated changes in Fan Loyalty are as follows:

Increase:
Florida moves from VERY GOOD to GREAT (regaining that they lost with the renaming of Farmer Field - but more later on this)

Decrease:
None in 2030

2. Financial Management Penalties
Article IV of the Constitution, regarding Financial Management outlines the following penalties:

• a) For every $5M below league cash minimum (-$35M) a team ends a season with, the team will lose a point of fan interest: -$40M is a point lost, -$45M is 2 points lost, etc.
• b) An additional fan interest penalty is also assessed to teams who end consecutive seasons with negative total cash and who have failed to make progress towards break-even. Consecutive seasons that move deeper into debt will trigger the penalty. Consecutive seasons that move towards solvency will not trigger a penalty.
• c) Teams that suffer losses in excess of -$25,000,000 (Season Profit/Losses figure) will also suffer a loss of one market size. Teams may chose to seek Owner-Provided Cash Relief to avoid this penalty (see below). Owner-Provided Cash Relief is capped at $10M – thus teams that suffer loses greater than -$35M will lose one Market size.
• d) 1st-year GMs shall be exempt from these penalties above, unless it is deemed by the Board that they are negligent in their handling of the team.
• e) Losses in excess of -$35,000,000 will be reviewed by the Board and could be grounds for dismissal from the league.
• f) Intentionally driving a team’s debt beyond the -$35,000,000 limit, such as by releasing multiple expensive contracts during one season, will be grounds for immediate dismissal, pending Board investigation.

Cash Minimum:
There was only one team that finished with greater than $40M worth of debt, and that is Arlington. The Bureaucrats nearly were nicked the 1 point penalty last year, finished $65.621M in the red. This results in a -6 FI

Consecutive, Increasing Negative Balance:
One teams fit this category, a bottom line of losing more in 2030 than they did in 2029, and this team loses a point of Fan Interest:
Arlington (-$39.58M in 2029, -$65.97M in 2030)

Profit/Loss greater than -$25M:
One teams fell into this category this year:
Arlington, who lost -$65.97M, but they will lose this point of Market Size below.

3. Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments
The PEBA also looks at Fan Expectations and Team performance as it relates to Loyalty and Market Size, and we used the same rubric and formula that we have since 2028. As stated by the Constitution:

• A team’s performance has the potential to affect its fan loyalty and market size. Since expectations are different in different markets, each team will be reviewed based on the expectations for their market. Teams with the largest markets and largest budgets will have the greatest expectations. Teams in smaller markets with smaller budgets will have lesser expectations. Teams will be awarded or penalized based on how they fared against those expectations.
• The team that exceeds expectations by the greatest amount will receive a market size increase. The next 4 teams who most exceeded expectations will see a fan loyalty increase.
• The team that performs the worst against expectations will see a market size decrease. The next 4 teams who most faltered against expectations will see a fan loyalty decrease.
• Expectations will be based on market size, team budget, playoff appearances in the last ten seasons, and team record over the last 5 seasons. Points are awarded/subtracted based on team record, place in division, playoff appearance, and winning a championship.
• A minimum of 2 years must pass between fan loyalty changes, and a minimum of 3 years must pass between market size changes. Winning a PEBA championship makes a team exempt from market size/fan loyalty drops for the next 3 years.

As such, the idea is a team goes into a season with Expectations, and those are based on Market size (larger Market, more expectations), Budget size (spend more money, more is expected), and your record over the past 5-seasons and play-off appearances over the past 10-seasons - playoff spots carry a little more fan hope over the long-term. A team's results are measure against League averages to create an Expectation score. Like-wise, a team is graded on their current performance - in essence, did you meet expectations? A performance score is determined similarly to the Expectation score, using 2030 Final Record, Division Standing and Playoff finish (all teams receive a minimal score of 1). The difference between Performance and Expectation is your score. The results are below.

This year's team that garnered the highest score jumped all the way from 10th place in 2029: West Virginia. The Alleghenies have put together a fabulous run of 7 straight playoff appearances (with five 1st place finishes), culminating with this years Rodriguez Cup. They have earned themselves an increase in Market Size, from VERY BIG to HUGE. They are exempt from future out-game +changes of Market Size for three years. Finishing 2nd - 4th were Palm Springs (GREAT to EXTREME), Kentucky (ABOVE AVE to GOOD) and Hartford (GOOD to VERY GOOD), and they receive a Loyalty boost, and they will be exempt for two years, The 5th place team, San Juan, who was in the Wild Card race most of the year, earned them a Loyalty increase in 2029, and thus are exempt from change this year and next. Congrats to all of the Top 5 for an excellent season.

The bottom of the barrel included Yuma, who was on the lose Loyalty list in 2028 (and '29) and is exempt. Should they appear again in 2031, they will receive the Loyalty hit. Three new teams join the bottom echelon and lose a point of Loyalty: Bakersfield (ABOVE AVERAGE to AVERAGE), Manchester (GOOD to ABOVE AVERAGE), and Florida (GREAT to VERY GOOD). All three will be exempt for two seasons. Florida is in the unique position of receiving a positive and negative gain in the same season. Teams cannot receive two negative changes, or two positive changes, but a wash can occur. That's some rough luck for the F-heads. Rounding out the list, at #28 is Arlington. The 'Crats have been struggling the past two seasons and finding a way to cope with one large contract will be key for them to turn their financial fortunes around, but for now they are faced with a loss of Market Size, moving them from VERY BIG to become just BIG. Arlington will be exempt from future -changes to Market Size for three seasons.

Lastly, 2030 Rodriguez Cup holder West Virginia will be exempt from all negative changes for three seasons, 2029 Champs Shin Seiki is exempt into 2032, and 2028 Champ Fargo is exempt for one more seasons. 2027 Champs, Shin Seiki, who were redundant, have timed out on their exemption, nonetheless.

[Lions]

Here's to low expectations.

[Arroyos]

Here's to low expectations.

I'll drink to that!

[MikeB]

Cant' say the loyalty increase changed much in way of fans this year.

[Zephyrs]

I expected us to exceed expectations a little more.

[Denny]

I hope Codgers fans don't get so EXTREME they start eating Tide Pods or something