The draft as foundation - solid rock or tar pit?

[Leones]

Arlington's GM recently posted:

"We are terrible this year.

So where do we go from here?

A rebuild is in order. And in order to rebuild, one must tank. ... While no one is immediately standing out, we do hope to see them develop in the coming years. Godspeed, Arlington, and may the coming years be forgiving."

Speaking as the GM of a team who came out of the basement with an elite pitcher in hand I can see the logic in tanking to acquire talent. Not the path to relevance we would have liked to taken, but there it is.

[Havana picked 1st in the 2023 draft (P Enrique Vazquez)]

After this recent draft though I wonder if this is really going to be a viable strategy going forward. You can quote me on this 8 or so seasons down the road :) but I didn't see anything like a player who could make a franchise coming out of that draft pool. It's hard to gauge numerically as we had just put a new formula into play this year, so our numbers won't compare. This draft pool looked to me like a bunch of washed up 21+ year olds and a lot of unmotivated (low work ethic) filler for the rookie league. In past years there were a proportionate number of quality players at each position. When I'd plot the rankings they had nice inverted logarithmic curve to them This year there one or two guys at the peak ad then a marked drop off. Some positions, catcher in particular, rated so low across the board, that it was very difficult to decide when to pick one. It mat be that my formula is goofed up, there were some difficulties in the past equating pitcher scores to batters, but I spent a lot of time ironing that out in this version and ran a number of tests against the top 20 players to see how they's score out and it seem like the new formula is ok.

Returning to the point, I wonder what you guys think about the viability of a club trying to get that talented draft pick to build around. It's hard to see a single pick making such an impact anymore.

What do you think about a club trying to rebuild around a high draft pick, is it viable?
How high would a club need to go to get that franchise player?
What player(s) from 2030 could be that player?

[Ghosts]

I can see why you might question the model of building around a high draft pick - I don't view that as a foolproof plan at all. That said, scouting opinions seem to vary greatly, but even in a notoriously thin draft (as determined by consensus), there were some excellent options at the top of the draft. It really does seem, even looking back retrospectively, that the top 5 or so picks are usually the only ones with franchise levels of potential (and of course they often don't work out). I am very curious to see how that changes with the new feeder leagues. Those should, as I understand it (someone please correct me if I'm wrong) those should start graduating talent in the 2032 draft. So, perhaps we'll see that top 5 level of talent expand to top 8, 10, or 12 level talent.

I do think we have a general lack of high end talent in our league. On our 5 star scale, (according to OSA) only one 1.5 star player has >150 PA as of draft day, alongside fourteen 2.0 star players. 83 2.5 star players hit that threshold while 72 3.0 star players and 35 3.5 star players did so too. We only have eighteen 4.0 star batters, four 4.5 star, and TWO 5.0 star. Almost 83% of batters getting regular playing time are within 1 star of each other (2.5, 3.0, or 3.5 stars). It just seems to me that there should be more than two 5 star hitters - that the overall level of talent is fairly weak.

[Borealis]

I think this is an interesting question, and I will preface it with I have not felt the past number of drafts have been full of much talent - maybe that's because I lost my long standing scout that helped build four titles, or maybe the eye test speaks the truth. When I look at just the Aurora 3-peat and consider 2021 (year 1) and 2023, here is the breakdown of those rosters:

2021
Batters:19
Batters drafted: 15
Batters FA ‘Discoveries’: 2 (Britt)
Batter FA: 0
Batter Trades: 0
Hold overs: 2 (Vinson & Rivera)

That's six of nine position players coming from the draft. Two hold-overs from the Rodriguez Administration and Britt, who was one of those FAs who appear - like Mr. Provost, money well spent.

Pitchers:18
Pitchers drafted: 8
Pitchers FA ‘Discoveries’: 2 (Provost)
Pitchers FA: 0
Pitcher Trades: 7 (Francisco, Smith, Barker, Lopez)
Hold overs: 1 (Burris)

4 of the 5 drafted pitchers pitched in relief, Jimenez being the lone exception, and the other three garnered just a handful of innings. 4 of 5 Starters were traded for, with Provost the lone exception. The primary closer was a hold over from JR's term.

Players: 37
Players drafted: 23
Players FA ‘Discoveries’: 4
Players FA: 0
Players Trades: 7
Hold overs: 3

8 of the draftees and one discovery played 13 or fewer games and played little role in the season.

Examining these numbers reflect something I think many would recognize regarding the draft: there are far more hitting prospects than dominant pitching prospects - and typically those go very early in the draft - and as a result, Aurora's offense has traditionally been built through the draft, while SP has been an acquired piece. In the interest of saving space, 2023 - which included most of the same key individuals, looked very similar.

In 2021, 8 of the 10 leaders in AB for Aurora were drafted (exceptions: Rivera and Britt), and in 2023, 8 of the top 9 were draftees (Britt the exception). Who were these draftees, and when were they drafted?

Mike Hale – 1st, 3rd, 2017
John Foster – 1st, 5th, 2011
Matt Ferrell – 1st, 6th, 2016
Gabe McIntyre – 1st, 11th, 2018
River Pope – 1st, 25th, 2016
Pablo Medrano – 1st, 25th, 2020
Pedro Ferringo – Sup., 29th, 2019
Nick Giles – Sup, 38th, 2014
Paul Carlisle – 2nd, 64th, 2016

and pitchers drafted:

Arturo Jimenez – 1st, 11th , 2015
Ryans Holbrook – 1st, 24th, 2011
Nolan Kuhn – 1st, 24th, 2014
John Gray – 4th, 84th , 2015

Only three drafted in the top 10 (via trade - Aurora has typically drafted out of the late positions of the draft). Two others at 11, the rest 24th or later.

What does this tell us? One - patience. Those 13 key players drafted were acquired over 9 seasons. Of course, one has to have those selections to make, and not undermine the future by repetitively trading those selections, nor trading young, clearly strong, early draftees in subsequent years - without getting immediate help for the major league roster. Many rebuilding teams seem to fall into this pattern, and as a result do nothing but prolong the rebuilding. Often, the end result is the very teams they are chasing do nothing but stay strong.

As for 2030, I am looking forward to getting Raul Munoz into action - my scout suggests he could head straight to AAA - he's that developed, but we will start him at A ball. SP Lewis Uige will have to grow a bit if he's to be a difference maker, especially on the control end - but as long as my scout, and OSA, reads him correctly, he might work out for Aurora.

[Lions]

Many rebuilding teams seem to fall into this pattern, and as a result do nothing but prolong the rebuilding. Often, the end result is the very teams they are chasing do nothing but stay strong.

It's not just that the rebuilding teams are trading talented players for draft picks... the contending teams are trading draft picks for young players who are cheap and under team control for years to come. Look at Félix Rodríguez in Shin Seiki, Carter and Mendoza in Bakersfield, and yes, Richard Neely in Aurora. Those players were drafted, paid signing bonuses, and then developed into quality major leaguers for rebuilding teams (ok.. Rodríguez was an international FA, but you get the point). Those players are all going to historical powerhouses, not other rebuilding teams, so they're perpetuating the cycle of success for those teams. I think the teams in the middle of the pack that are chasing the contenders are the ones who really ought to be making these trades. A lot of rebuilding teams are valuing those draft picks too highly compared to what they're giving up, but contending teams are pretty good at getting good deals, too.

[DrewV]

A lot of rebuilding teams are valuing those draft picks too highly compared to what they're giving up, but contending teams are pretty good at getting good deals, too.

Having lived this in the last season, I completely agree.

While I'm still new (less than 4 years) at OOTP, and still a PEBA greenhorn, I try to identify the patterns of successful teams with similar situations to Duluth. 2029 was well-intentioned, but it is definitely a "live and learn" sort of season for me.

It can be tough--my scout had Bill Knight, Gary Murphy and others at 4-5.5 star potential last season, and then it seemed like the whole pool depreciated. I stocked the Duluth draft for 2030, giving up Charron, Carter, and Mendoza. Now, other prospects were part of those packages--younger guys with great potential like Antonio Herrera and Noah Hill.

While I don't feel gyped--Dan paid for both Carter and Mendoza, as Kevin did for Charron--I'll never put that much value in a draft again. Not only did the pool seem underwhelming --Duluth took off right after the trade deadline and went from a projected 3rd-4th pick to 8th pick. Now, I didn't expect to have the offseason success I did to improve Duluth's offense--the calculation at the 2029 deadline was that Carter and Mendoza wouldn't have tipped the needle toward playoff success before their team control ran out anyway.

Duluth's a good cautionary tale for using all that "success cash" on Free Agency. It's just too expensive--and the ramifications can be ruinous. Those PEBA teams that identify secured talent in their final years of team control--and those high-potential A/AA guys, and trade their picks for them--I think those are the franchises making the smart calls and certainly a model I'd like to shift to. Hell, Dan somehow had a top-10 pick this year on top of all that capital he drummed up in '29.

[Lions]

Duluth's a good cautionary tale for using all that "success cash" on Free Agency. It's just too expensive--and the ramifications can be ruinous. Those PEBA teams that identify secured talent in their final years of team control--and those high-potential A/AA guys, and trade their picks for them--I think those are the franchises making the smart calls and certainly a model I'd like to shift to. Hell, Dan somehow had a top-10 pick this year on top of all that capital he drummed up in '29.

Dan has indeed done well. How about RJ grabbing Clarence Carpenter and locking him up? Yes it's a big contract, but he wasn't bidding against anyone and he's been worth every penny. That's one where Okinawa sold him on in the final year of team control.