1. OOTP in-game adjustments
We see game generated changes at the end of each season, and though I suspect their generation centers around much of what we examine, I can not say with any certainty at all what causes these changes. OOTP game generated changes in Market Size are as follows:
Increase:
Shin Seiki joins the upper echelon, as they move from HUGE to ASTRONOMICAL
Decrease:
Hartford moves from VERY BIG to BIG
Reno moves from VERY BIG to BIG
London moves from AVERAGE to BELOW AVERAGE
OOTP game generated changes in Fan Loyalty are as follows:
Increase:
West Virginia moves from VERY GOOD to GREAT (on top of a gain last year for finishing 4th in Perform/Loyalty)
Kentucky moves from AVERAGE to ABOVE AVERAGE (erasing the loss they suffered in 2028)
Decrease:
Kalamazoo moves from GOOD to ABOVE AVERAGE
2. Financial Management Penalties
Article IV of the Constitution, regarding Financial Management outlines the following penalties:
Cash Minimum:Constitution wrote:
- a) For every $5M below league cash minimum (-$35M) a team ends a season with, the team will lose a point of fan interest: -$40M is a point lost, -$45M is 2 points lost, etc.
- b) An additional fan interest penalty is also assessed to teams who end consecutive seasons with negative total cash and who have failed to make progress towards break-even. Consecutive seasons that move deeper into debt will trigger the penalty. Consecutive seasons that move towards solvency will not trigger a penalty.
- c) Teams that suffer losses in excess of -$25,000,000 (Season Profit/Losses figure) will also suffer a loss of one market size. Teams may chose to seek Owner-Provided Cash Relief to avoid this penalty (see below). Owner-Provided Cash Relief is capped at $10M – thus teams that suffer loses greater than -$35M will lose one Market size.
- d) 1st-year GMs shall be exempt from these penalties above, unless it is deemed by the Board that they are negligent in their handling of the team.
- e) Losses in excess of -$35,000,000 will be reviewed by the Board and could be grounds for dismissal from the league.
- f) Intentionally driving a team’s debt beyond the -$35,000,000 limit, such as by releasing multiple expensive contracts during one season, will be grounds for immediate dismissal, pending Board investigation.
There were only two teams that finished with greater than $40M worth of debt, and that is Canton and Manchester. Both teams are run by 'first year GMs', and thus are excused. Arlington nearly was nicked the 1 point penalty, as they finished just below -$40M, and -$39 and change.
Consecutive, Increasing Negative Balance:
Three teams fit this category, of losing more in 2029 than they did in 2028, and each team lost a point of Fan Interest:
Arlington (-$7.695M in 2028, -$33.08M in 2029)
Kalamazoo (-$637K in 2028, -$40.56M in 2029)
and the toughest case...
Toyama (-$2.666M in 2028, -$7.473M in 2029), despite increasing in Market Size...
Profit/Loss greater than -$25M:
Four teams fell into this category this year, two of which (Manchester and Canton) were exempt. The other two were:
Arlington, who lost -$33.08M, but elected to chose the 'Cash relief from owner' option, and sold 4 FI in exchange for $10M, to drop that P/L to -$23M.
Kalamazoo was not as fortunate, as they lost -$40.56M, and the cash from owner option provides no relief, thus they lose a Market size, from AVERAGE to BELOW AVERAGE.
3. Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Adjustments
The PEBA also looks at Fan Expectations and Team performance as it relates to Loyalty and Market Size, and we used the same rubric and formula that we did after the 2028, the statistical analysis Morris left behind. As stated by the Constitution:
As such, the idea is a team goes into a season with Expectations, and those are based on Market size (larger Market, more expectations), Budget size (spend more money, more is expected), and your record over the past 5-seasons and play-off appearances over the past 10-seasons - playoff spots carry a little more fan hope over the long-term. A team's results are measure against League averages to create an Expectation score. Like-wise, a team is graded on their current performance - in essence, did you meet expectations? A performance score is determined similarly to the Expectation score, using 2029 Final Record, Division Standing and Playoff finish (all teams receive a minimal score of 1). The difference between Performance and Expectation is your score. Below are the results: It is no shock that the team that garnered the highest score was last year's runner-up: Neo-Tokyo. The Akira have put together outstanding back-to-back seasons and as a result, have earned themselves an increase in Market size, from ABOVE AVERAGE to BIG. They are exempt from future out-game +changes of Market Size for three years. Finishing 2nd and 3rd were two of last season's top 5 - the Scottish and Havana. Both, having finished in the top 5 last season are exempt from Fan Loyalty changes this year (and next). Fargo, the 2028 Champs and Top of the Performance/Loyalty heap, finishing 4th, received a Loyalty boost, moving from GREAT to EXTREME, and they will be exempt for two years, as with the 5th place team, San Juan, whose surprising late season Wild Card push earned them a Loyalty increase as well, from AVERAGE to ABOVE AVERAGE - Congrats to all of the Top 5 for an excellent season.Constitution wrote:
- A team’s performance has the potential to affect its fan loyalty and market size. Since expectations are different in different markets, each team will be reviewed based on the expectations for their market. Teams with the largest markets and largest budgets will have the greatest expectations. Teams in smaller markets with smaller budgets will have lesser expectations. Teams will be awarded or penalized based on how they fared against those expectations.
- The team that exceeds expectations by the greatest amount will receive a market size increase. The next 4 teams who most exceeded expectations will see a fan loyalty increase.
- The team that performs the worst against expectations will see a market size decrease. The next 4 teams who most faltered against expectations will see a fan loyalty decrease.
- Expectations will be based on market size, team budget, playoff appearances in the last ten seasons, and team record over the last 5 seasons. Points are awarded/subtracted based on team record, place in division, playoff appearance, and winning a championship.
- A minimum of 2 years must pass between fan loyalty changes, and a minimum of 3 years must pass between market size changes. Winning a PEBA championship makes a team exempt from market size/fan loyalty drops for the next 3 years.
The bottom of the barrel included Yuma, who was on the lose Loyalty list last year, but suffered such a hit in-game, thus they are exempt this year and next. Three new teams join the bottom echelon and lose a point of Loyalty: Toyama (GOOD to ABOVE AVERAGE), Arlington (VERY GOOD to GOOD), and London (GOOD to ABOVE AVERAGE). All three will be exempt for two seasons. Rounding out the list, at #28 was none other than Aurora. Dear to my heart, I can say the financial investment at the trade deadline and a resulting failure to make the playoffs dropped the Borealis to the bottom of the barrel and will cost the organization dearly with a loss of Market Size, leaving the rarified air of ASTRONOMICAL to become just HUGE. Aurora will be exempt from future -changes to Loyalty for three seasons.
Lastly, 2029 Rodriguez Cup holder Shin Seiki will be exempt from all negative changes for three seasons, and 2028 Champ Fargo is exempt for two more seasons. 2027 Champs, Shin Seiki, are redundant, and 2026 Champs, Duluth have timed out on their exemption (which coupled with the new GM rule, saved them a Market Size decrease in 2028).
