2028 SL Wild Card Playoff Preview
Bakersfield, CA. Oct 3, 2018.
As the champagne soaked deeper and deeper into the locker room carpet, and the crowds in the streets of Bakersfield began to dissipate, the Bears front office continued the debates that had been keeping both player and staff up at night: who is making the playoff roster? With 31 players and eight outfielders on their roster, there simply were not enough spots and not enough at bats to go around. Outfielders Jesus Lopez and Antonio Garcia will not be making the trip to Neo Tokyo, but the Bears will feature six outfielders and completely different outfields against left and right-handed hitting pitching. Rookie slugger Clyde Stinton forced his way onto the playoff team by slugging .750 against right-handed pitching on an offense that often struggled to score runs, while rookie 2B prospect Ramon Guzman was not able to displace veteran Bryan Cleveland despite a very comparable offensive showing. The Bears will also not be utlizing fifth starter Lance Harris, at least during the Wild Card series.
The Bears and the Akira have split their season matchups, each winning six games. The Bears come into the series after a very successful September run where they won 20 of 27. The Akira had a more challenging month going 13 for 27 but were able to win 8 of 15 against playoff teams. For a more in depth discussion of this series and the IL series, check out the PEBA podcast
here.
C
Akira
Atsumori Kichida 0.293/0.322/0.749 (AVG/OBP/OPS)
Héctor Rodríguez 0.212/0.262/0.602
Bears
Connor Clavell 0.209/0.313/0.701
Steve McDonald 0.217/0.335/0.682
Advantage:
Bears
McDonald has underperformed this year, but remains a solid offensive player while framing for and supporting one of the best pitching staffs in PEBA. Rodriguez remains an excellent defensive catcher, but has taken a step back in power this year and has been a weakness in an otherwise potent Akira offense.
1B
Akira
Chuck Glass 0.275/0.311/0.721
Koshiro Nakashima 0.251/0.326/0.765
Bears
Alex Bothwell 0.278/0.345/0.869
Clyde Stinton 0.231/0.268/0.832
Advantage:
Bears
The arrival of the Red Hook in Bakersfield marked a change in the defense-first mentality of the Bears. Since arriving at the trade deadline, Bothwell has continued his steady offense by hitting 14 home runs while calling the notoriously pitcher-friendly Yum! Field home. Baby-faced 20-year-old rookie 1B Stinton fared well in his second call-up of the year, with an OPS+ of 214 on a BABIP of just .188 in September. Akira's first basemen were steady if limited players, but cannot match the power production Bakersfield sports at the position.
2B
Akira
Fernando De La Garza 0.313/0.358/0.825
B.J. Gassaway 0.263/0.337/0.781
Bears
Bryan Cleveland 0.217/0.241/0.584
Gilberto Valdéz 0.220/0.259/0.588
Advantage:
Akira
Neither youth nor experience excelled offensively at 2B for the Bears this year, while Akira second basemen tore the comparative cover off the ball. Gassaway's 23 home runs and 128 OPS+ would have been sufficient to outclass the Bears here alone, but were supplemented by De La Garza's 141 OPS+ in limited play.
3B
Akira
Guillermo Justavo 0.255/0.278/0.719
Bears
Rudy Brown 0.184/0.246/0.628
George Kelly 0.213/0.259/0.600
Advantage:
Akira
The story is much the same at the hot corner, as Bears third basemen struggled at the plate to the tune of a combined .191 AVG while Justavo hit 28 home runs and produced 3.6 WAR even as several of his teammates made his solid season look relatively meek.
SS
Akira
Brian Coleman 0.280/0.334/0.724
Miguel Rinlón 0.228/0.267/0.582
Bears
Javier Torres 0.232/0.261/0.605
Advantage:
Akira
While both Coleman and Torres are known best for their excellent defense, Coleman produced 5.2 WAR compared to Torres's 1.6 on the merits of his bat. Coleman made his first all-star appearance while stealing 22 bases, hitting 33 doubles, and 9 triples.
OF
Akira
Jeffrey Grier 0.286/0.370/0.746
Cal Morrissey 0.203/0.249/0.509
Tomás Martínez 0.273/0.322/0.819
Yasuhiro Nagai 0.264/0.292/0.664
Ramiro Reynoso 0.278/0.327/0.823
Bears
Stephen Hooper 0.235/0.350/0.679
Germán Jáquez 0.225/0.292/0.668
King Bailey 0.226/0.274/0.671
António Figueroa 0.245/0.293/0.709
Jarrod Ricks 0.231/0.302/0.728
Mark St. John 0.233/0.320/0.654
Advantage:
Akira
Led by 24-year-old phenom Tomás Martínez, the Akira outfield is lefty dominant and may well feast on Bears righties in this series. Leadoff hitter Grier had a spectacular rookie season, hitting .286 while walking at an 11.7% clip. The Bears outfield is something of a mess, featuring a clash of defensive gurus and veteran sluggers. Led by deadline acquisition Jarrod "Merlin" Ricks and speedster António Figueroa, the Bears will need all of manager Wayne Kedsch's extensive experience to maximize the talent of this bunch. Merlin has hit well since reaching Bakersfield, slugging .519, and Figueroa has stolen 53 bases - a number which pales in comparison to Grier's league-leading 88 thefts. The Bears need to hope that their veteran experience can make up for some of the talent gap between these groups, or Bears pitching might be in for a rough series.
SP
Akira
SP José Fernández (L) 211.2 IP in 33 GS, 119/4.8 (ERA+/WAR)
SP Javier Ferreira (L) 222 IP in 32 GS, 95/3.3 (ERA+/WAR)
SP Alfonso Ramos (R) 177 IP in 32 GS, 112/2.8 (ERA+/WAR)
SP Luigi Bright (R) 160.2 IP in 30 GS, 87/2.8 (ERA+/WAR)
SP Júlio Díaz (R) 183.1 IP in 32 GS, 102/2 (ERA+/WAR)
Bears
SP Neil Maes (R) 224.1 IP in 33 GS, 181/5.2 (ERA+/WAR)
SP Fred Womack (R) 219 IP in 31 GS, 180/4.6 (ERA+/WAR)
SP Erik Watson (L) 194.2 IP in 32 GS, 93/3.2 (ERA+/WAR)
SP Declan Littleworth (L) 205 IP in 32 GS, 109/2.9 (ERA+/WAR)
Advantage:
Bears
It seems that no one can figure out the mystery of mid to late career breakout seasons by Bears starters Neil Maes and Fred Womack. Maes is striking out a career low 4.3 batters per 9IP and Womack is not much ahead at only 5.5 K/9, yet both sport identical 1.89 ERAs. Whether Akira bats can figure out how these two are leading a Bears staff that has allowed less than three runs per game is the crux of this series. Akira ace José Fernández will have a lot on his shoulder(s) as the lone Akira starter with a season FIP below 3.
SP
Akira
RP Jorge Martínez (R) 50 IP in 47 G, 1/247 (WHIP/ERA+)
CL Júlio González (R) 57 IP in 67 G, 1.14/118 (WHIP/ERA+)
CL Cleve Douglas (L) 57.1 IP in 44 G, 1.01/205 (WHIP/ERA+)
RP Adrik Glindzich (L) 67.1 IP in 62 G, 1.26/106 (WHIP/ERA+)
RP Katsuhito Hayashi (L) 88.2 IP in 61 G, 0.95/134 (WHIP/ERA+)
SP Kitahachi Noda (R) 81.1 IP in 44 G, 1.23/91 (WHIP/ERA+)
CL Ramón Contreras (R) 39.2 IP in 60 G, 1.61/98 (WHIP/ERA+)
RP Hayden Rudder (L) 69.2 IP in 43 G, 1.35/86 (WHIP/ERA+)
Bears
RP Sadakuno Nakagawa (R) 85.1 IP in 75 G, 1.09/215 (WHIP/ERA+)
RP Bob O'Higgins (R) 64 IP in 58 G, 1.17/135 (WHIP/ERA+)
RP Oliver Martínez (R) 44.2 IP in 24 G, 1.28/121 (WHIP/ERA+)
RP Matthew Powell (R) 60.2 IP in 35 G, 1.2/164 (WHIP/ERA+)
RP Toru Yamada (R) 63 IP in 45 G, 1.24/159 (WHIP/ERA+)
RP Hideaki Hara (R) 58.2 IP in 55 G, 1.24/131 (WHIP/ERA+)
RP Juan Ochoa (R) 53.2 IP in 30 G, 1.64/64 (WHIP/ERA+)
Advantage:
None
The Bears and the Akira, as they have been overall this year, are very evenly matched in relief. Each squad features a veteran closer with top end stuff and over 40 saves. Each features a deep stable of effective middle and back end arms. If there's an advantage to be had between these two pens, it may as well come down to the humidity for how much effect it has on paper. In what appears to be a very evenly matched series, the dice can offer as much prediction as the season history between these two squads. We can only hope the Wild Card series plays out as well as the season matchups have so far.