Bears Official Baseball Blog: The BOB Blog

[Ghosts]

Fireworks in Cold Bay
Cold Bay, AL - 9 September, 2030

As the extended Snow and Surf Amalgamation season draws near a close, the Cold Bay Eleven find themselves in an unfamiliar position - first place. With 10 games remaining in the season, the Eleven hold a four game lead in the AL Klondike division and have already secured a playoff spot. If they can hold on to their lead, the Eleven will win just their second division title in 23 seasons. To what do they owe this considerable change of fortune? Certainly a number of factors have come in to play, but perhaps none more so than the pitching improvement that Cold Bay has witnessed. The Eleven's team ERA stands at 2.28 - that number was 8.15, 3.01, and 3.00 in 2027, 2028, and 2029. The team ranks first in FIP, pitching WAR, starter ERA, and strikeouts.

While the players deserve most of the credit, the turnaround in pitching performance and the arrival of the legendary Markus "Fireworks" Hancock as the pitching coach cannot be entirely coincidental. Also, no one would have guessed this group of pitchers might be able to produce these types of results. The Eleven's top pitching WAR earners are 2030 12th rounder Ruben Avila, 2029 10th rounder Russ Morton, 2030 10th rounder Aidan Pitkeathy, and 2030 13th rounder Jesus Rosas. What Hancock has been able to do with these players is remarkable. Consider Rosas: a four year college player at Michigan, he posted a career ERA/WHIP/WAR of 5.60/1.82/-2.0 in 151 innings of work. In his professional debut, he's posted a 1.20/1.02/1.3 line. His walk rate went from 5.8BB/9 to 3.6 and he has yet to give up a home run while having let 21 loose at Michigan. Avila, another four year college grad, has a similar story. Though he improved throughout his career at Cambridge, his serviceable senior year stats look paltry in comparison to his professional numbers, and he's posted most of his professional numbers while starting for the first time in his young career. His senior year ERA/WHIP/WAR was 3.00/1.37/0.0 and while with the Eleven he's posted 1.51/0.88/2.6. The biggest differences? His walk and home run rates: 3.7 vs 2.9 and 1.0 vs 0.2. Lest you think this is because the park at Cold Bay, Thunderclouds Ballpark, is a pitcher's paradise, please note the historical home run factor for that park is 1.01. These late round selections have shown that under Hancock's tutelage, great things start happening.

While the Bears organization is very pleased with Markus, they have something of a dilemma with their newfound prize. How do they manage graduating their premier talent? Former first round selection in the PEBA draft, Larry Hicks, enjoyed a boom in his young career when he joined Cold Bay. His already good SS-A numbers became outstanding while working with Hancock as he posted a 1.17/0.99/1.8 line. Since his ascension to A-ball his line is 3.53/1.27/0.8. Not bad, but jumps in his walk and home run rates are a bit nerve racking so shortly removed from Fireworks School. Another high pedigree prospect, Alberto Flores, will seek to earn his stripes under Hancock's guidance as the Eleven close out their season.

[Ghosts]

Minor League Standouts
Bakersfield, CA - 9 September, 2030

Sherwood Park's and Chula Vista's seasons are over, after a first round playoff exit and a near miss on a playoff appearance, respectively. West Valley is gearing up to take on the winner of the wild card series on the AAA level, while Cold Bay and Punta Cana have two weeks remaining in their regular seasons. Cold Bay looks poised for a division win while Punta Cana has been eliminated from contention and stands at 4th in their division. So, most of the Bears minor league games have been played. As we look toward the organization's off-season, which players might be poised to win the coveted Bear Cub of the Year awards?

Batters
Certain comprehensive metrics weigh heavily in determining the minor league offensive player of the year: WAR and wOBA are perhaps the two that carry the most weight with Bakersfield decision makers and so we'll focus on those to simplify the discussion.

AAA
Guillermo Colon finished his second straight phenomenal campaign at AAA after starting the year crushing AA pitching to the tune of a 184 OPS+. His combination of offense, speed, and defense earned him the 2029 minor league player of the year award, and his 2030 season was markedly better. He's posted a total of 6.3 WAR between AA and AAA with a combined wOBA of .342. The former is among the best in the Bears organization while the latter is merely good - the discrepancy is accounted for by Guillermo's excellent defense and 41 SBs.

AA
Lenny Horrocks was a nobody this time last year, but his sophomore AA campaign has turned plenty of heads. His 6.5 WAR campaign places him first in the Bears minors and his .374 wOBA is 5th among eligible hitters (300+ PA). Lenny has developed demonstrable power out of nowhere, hitting 29 home runs after hitting only 8 last season.

Armando Garcia, acquired from Yuma before the season began, played his entire season in AA and accrued an outstanding 6.4 WAR. The lefty 2B has the defensive prowess to play at SS if needed, and his .269/.338/.809 slash line is indicative of a player with limited weaknesses. Armando has some speed, swiping 21 in 26 attempts, to pair with his notable power - 23 2Bs and 23 HRs in 509 PAs. He's certain to earn a promotion to West Valley next season, perhaps even with some hardware in his locker.

A
Catcher Mauro Mata is on just about every PEBA GM's radar. The prospect has been rated as one of or the very best prospect in PEBA for two years now, and his on field results have proven why those forecasts aren't drawn from nothing. Mata was slated to anchor Punta Cana's inaugural lineup but age limits and other players' need for playing time forced the organization to start him in Cold Bay. He responded with a .299/.3575/.809 slash line and earned a promotion to A-ball at just 19-years-old. The organization closely monitored their prized prospect, as his first attempt at hitting for Chula Vista in 2029 had poor results: .192/.236/.429. There turned out to be little cause for concern, though, because Mauro slashed .308/.357/.842 in his second stint at A-ball - a slight improvement over his numbers at SS-A. While Mata's 4.1 WAR is not organization leading, that stunted total (his season began in mid-May and resulted in 320 PAs to date) is still good for 4th among award-eligible players. His incredible .397 wOBA is third.

1B Marvin Huff opened the season in Cold Bay and absolutely destroyed SS-A pitching: a 232 OPS+ in 72 PAs. After his quick promotion to A-ball, his performance was more muted (145 OPS+), but his combined numbers place him 5th in WAR (4.0) and 2nd in wOBA (.402).

SS-A
3B Emilio Ibarra was the star of the Mamajuanas before earning a mid-season promotion to Cold Bay. While in rookie ball, Ibarra smashed 21 XBHs in 178 PAs, amassed a slash of .374/.452/1.052, and earned 2.7 WAR. He continued to hit well in Cold Bay, and helped lead them to the playoffs with his 154 OPS+. His 3.4 WAR total was also stunted by the late starts of SS-A/R but still places him 9th. His unbelievable .433 wOBA places him number 1 with a bullet.

While many other candidates had admirable seasons, we believe top honors for Bear Cub Hitter of the Year will go to one of the above rising stars. The candidates for Bear Cub Pitcher of the Year, on the other hand, are somewhat less impressive. We focus on FIP and WAR to identify which pitchers are pitching the best without regard to the defenses supporting them (FIP) and how much of an impact they've had overall (WAR).

Pitchers

AA
SP Francisco Robles may not be "Yogi", but he did have a fine year for Sherwood Park and Chula Vista. His combined 3.0 WAR is tops in the organization for eligible pitchers and his 2.61 FIP is 7th.

RP Zach Newman has electric stuff and almost nothing else in his skill set. His control and spin rates leave much to be desired, but after posting a 203 ERA+ for Chula Vista in 17 appearances, Newman moved to Sherwood Park and continued racking up Ks (and BBs) at similar rates. He totaled 59 Ks and 18 BBs in 44 innings and amassed an impressive 2.53 FIP (5th) but only 0.8 WAR.

A
Landon Lee's 2.52 FIP is 4th in the organization, and his 2.4 WAR is 4th. In 20 games, 16 of which were starts, Lee used his cutter/change/curve combination to accrue a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP for Chula Vista.

Another impressive Charger is SP Miguel Martinez. In his 4th season at A-ball, Martinez earned a regular spot in the rotation for the first time. He started 18 games, made 11 additional appearances, and accrued 2.7 WAR (2nd) and a 2.44 FIP (2nd). He may have taken some time to mature, but the 22-year-old was a workhorse for Chula Vista and was exceedingly efficient in the process. His stats make him a top candidate for the award.

Larry Hicks brings both pedigree and results to the mix, as he accumulated 2.4 WAR (t-4th) and an excellent 2.48 FIP (3rd) between Cold Bay and Chula Vista. He's rejoined the Eleven for their post-season run since the Chargers season ended and his work there could push him over the edge in the eyes of award-givers.

SS-A
Ruben Avila's short season in Cold Bay has been an incredible ride. After a relatively unimpressive senior season at Cambridge, Avila posted a 1.88 FIP which is 1st in the organization by far among eligible pitchers, though his teammates Aidan Pitkeathy and Jesus Rosas have posted better numbers in sub-threshold appearances. Avila also posted 2.6 WAR in only 83.1 innings, good enough for 3rd overall. The 12th round pick is one of several recent late round pitching prospects making Bakersfield's scouting team look brilliant and is perhaps the leader for this award at this point.

R
SP Antonio Sandoval, an international free agent from the 2028 class, was the clear leader of the Punta Cana rotation. In 14 starts, he produced 2.4 WAR and a 2.73 FIP. He also kept his ERA to 2.92 despite playing in front of an atrocious defense (83 errors in 78 games) and suffering a .350 BABIP. Sandoval has shown improvement in every measurable category and has made the organization consider his future much more closely. He may not win this year's award, but pay attention to Antonio Sandoval in the coming years.

[Ghosts]

Kedsch, Minors Managers Fired

Bakersfield, CA - 16 October, 2030

Citing the desire to create a cohesive developmental pipeline within the organization, the Bakersfield Bears announced the termination of manager Wayne Kedsch, bench coach Chris Huffman, and the managers of their AAA, AA, A, and SS-A affiliates. Only former Bears pitching great Felix Maese of the newfound rookie league Punta Cana Mamajuanas, survived the culling. As he left the facility, the typically brash Kedsch left no stone unturned in passing the blame for the teams third consecutive first round exit from the playoffs: "You think I did a bad job? It's the players who couldn't hit, couldn't pitch, couldn't catch the damn ball. And you can print that." The Bears finished with 94, 95, and 94 wins over the past three seasons but were bounced from the playoffs by the Akira, the Evas, and the Borealis and have yet to win a series under the front office stewardship of Dan Vail. It's rumored that the organization will seek more developmentally focused leadership to help their younger players excel, but no names have been leaked to that might replace the thundering Kedsch in the Bears clubhouse.

[Ghosts]

Waylon Hoekstra Announced as Bears Manager

Bakersfield, CA - 23 October, 2030

Bears fans everywhere are scratching their heads at the hiring of manager Waylon "Undertaker" Hoekstra. The unknown manager has been largely out of baseball since his 138 days of PEBA service time in 2007-2008 came to an unceremonious end. Who is this guy? A Canadian national, Hoekstra is a student of sabermetrics and promotes a style of play popularized in the defunct MLB of the early 2000s. Baseball tactics appeared to be at the crux of former manager Wayne Kedsch's dismissal. While the Bears were competitive in each of their first round playoff exits from 2028 through 2030, key moments in the game were not handled the way the front office would have liked. Kedsch allegedly refused to discuss certain tactical adjustments, which led to a growing rift between him and the front office. Underperformance from many key players also certainly contributed to the feeling that the team needed a big change to reach the next level. While it's dubious that former Fargo flameout Wayne Hoekstra can make a huge individual contribution, perhaps this move is more about taking the handcuffs off of some of the players. Hoekstra is joined by new bench coach Greg Wallace, former manager of the Charleston Statesmen before their arrival into PEBA.

The team released the following statement: "We have incredibly high expectations for our players, our staff, and our organization. Wayne and the rest of our staff that will not be a part of the Bears organization in 2031 were instrumental in getting our organization into the competitive positions we find ourselves at all levels. Their contributions will forever be a part of any successes we enjoy in the future. These moves were made to form a cohesive management structure with shared values throughout the organization. We feel this is the best way to maximize outcomes."

[Sandgnats]

I love this time of year when managers start getting fired.