Regarding personnel, I've been in contract with teams who currently have vacant coaching spots at active levels. Trust me; those spots will get filled.
I was kidding about the 2012 thing Matt. I guess it's hard to detect sarcasm in posts or maybe I just suck ass at being humorous.
I do not believe in a specific date of the end of the world type of scenarios. However, when the next polar shift occurs, we are in a world of hurt. That could be in 2012, 2099, or 2999-who knows? But, when it does, most of us are screwed! I don't worry about it at all, but the ensuing chaos will make the 2012 movie look like watching paint dry.
Consider all of the continents doing a 180 degree flip and the repercussions from that violent action and the displacement of oceans of water. High ground will be the safe place to be I'm guessing! But equally as devastating will be the catastrophe from a geomagnetic reversal in that all of our electrical systems will be fried my friends! The earths magnetic energy operates at different hertz than our man-made electrical systems, meaning that anything plugged in will no longer be functional. Now, that would not be a fun world to live in at first! What would we do without PEBA/LRS and computers?!?!?!?
Can anyone say tangent? Ahh, back to Markus Hancock. We were all drooling when he entered the draft pool and I think Matt is exactly right in that Hancock had a control of 7 prior to being drafted!! For a little history for you newcomers to PEBA, here's an article to get you acquainted. I mean Markus Hancock is such a good pitcher that his teammates don't even tease him about unfortunate last name!
If I had the first pick, it would be Barker. He currently rates at 4-5-4, meaning he could probably start his minor league career in A, be in AA before the season is over, in AAA by midseason next year, and starting at the PEBA level in 2013. In other words, about 15 starts at each level and he should be ready to roll.
Curt Turner is another guy who I might consider before Parkinson. Another college guy who is probably less than 2 full seasons from helping at the PEBA level.
I like Barker myself. But not liking him enough to trade up for. If I had the top pick, I would probably pick CF Antonio Morales. Right after that, it would be either SP Dave Barker or 2B Lawrence Jones.
As for the high school argument, I went back to the 2007 and 2008 draft. I'm looking at the top 10 picks. I highlighted college draft picks in red and high schoolers in blue. I also placed in bold, players that should have solid careers. This is just based on my pure opinion.
2007 Draft:
*Only 2 players that I considered top tier talent: Rivera and Guavara
*The CL J. Diaz pick is debatable. He will become a solid reliever. But I'm not sure if that's what you want at the 7th pick.
2008 Draft:
*Hands down Markus Hancock is the best player in the draft
*3 top tier talent: Hancock, Garcia, and Torres
*Overall top 10 picks are solid. Gaines has very good talent but not sure if he can overcome his control.
I think high school draft picks can be risky. But if you look at the 2007 draft, college draftees did not pan out that much either. The lone high school player drafted in 2007 could arguably become the best player out of those 10 picks.
For the 2008 draft... if it was not for the freak known as Hancock, you could arguably say the best player within those 10 picks could be high schooler Luis Torres.
I guess you can say it's just like real life. High school players (or underclassmen in other sports) bring greater risk. But they also bring immense potential if you select correctly. It's just depending how much you want to risk.
2007 Draft Round 1, Pick 1 - Kalamazoo Badgers: SP A. Betancourt <==== spent multiple seasons at AAA; average starter or could be a late bloomer Round 1, Pick 2 - Manchester Maulers: SS J. Rivera <==== #11 ranked prospect in 2010; future All-Star?
Round 1, Pick 3 - Connecticut Nutmeggers: SP J. Flores <==== working to become a serviceable starter
Round 1, Pick 4 - New Jersey Hitmen: SP P. Hunter <==== spent multiple seasons at AAA; future middle rotation starter? Round 1, Pick 5 - West Virginia Coal Sox: CF J. Guavara <==== #3 ranked prospect in 2010; future All-Star? Round 1, Pick 6 - San Antonio Calzones of Laredo: RF E. Olsen <==== spent multiple seasons at AAA; future 4th outfielder? Round 1, Pick 7 - London Underground: CL J. Díaz <==== 2009 AAA All-Star; future setup pitcher? Round 1, Pick 8 - Canton Longshoremen: 3B S. Vallejo <==== still at AA; can become a decent starting 3B Round 1, Pick 9 - Gloucester Fishermen: SS K. Thornton <==== #40 ranked prospect in 2011; ML quality bat; suspect defense Round 1, Pick 10 - New Orleans Trendsetters: SP F. Rodríguez <==== multiple seasons at AA; bust?
2008 Draft Round 1, Pick 1 - Tempe Knights: SP M. Hancock <==== stud Round 1, Pick 2 - Fargo Dinosaurs: SP V. Toro <==== second season at AA; average future starter Round 1, Pick 3 - Kentucky Thoroughbreds: SP L. Tatum <==== #46 ranked prospect in 2010; potential #2 quality starter Round 1, Pick 4 - Aurora Borealis: RF M. Burton <==== #35 ranked prospect in 2011; solid starting outfielder; borderline All-Star? Round 1, Pick 5 - Manchester Maulers: SP M. García <==== #68 ranked prospect in 2011; top rotation pitcher; future All-Star? Round 1, Pick 6 - Connecticut Nutmeggers: SP J. Gaines <==== #54 ranked prospect in 2010; future middle rotation pitcher?; control is worrisome Round 1, Pick 7 - Yuma Bulldozers: 2B P. Maldanoda <==== #16 ranked prospect in 2010; still needs development time; All-Star caliber talent Round 1, Pick 8 - Florida Featherheads: LF L. Torres <==== #1 ranked prospect in 2011; still needs some development; Royal Raker hitting talent? Round 1, Pick 9 - Gloucester Fishermen: 3B J. Silver <==== #38 ranked prospect in 2011; future solid starting infielder; borderline All-Star? Round 1, Pick 10 - London Underground: CF D. Carter <==== #82 ranked prospect in 2011; future starter
Am I on the PEBA forums or have I stumbled onto Fangraphs - PEBA Edition? Great analysis, guys. I'm loving reading this thread.
It's interesting to me how much better the '08 draft is looking that the '07 draft. Surely random chance plays into that (more bona fide stars in the latter draft), but I wonder how much of that came from us having a season under our belts and a better idea of what to look for scouting-wise? Of course this is still a lot of projection on our parts. Looking at the draft history from 2007 vs. 2008, it's clear that far more 2007 draftees are/have contributed at the PEBA level. At this time, only Hancock and Chris "Trapper" Holmes an be said to have made any meaningful ML impact. If Kevin's analysis is to be believed, that fact will be changing soon in favor of the '08 class.
Codgers wrote:That's weird....my scout actually likes Dave Barker slightly better than Parkinson. I wonder which one is right?
And this, in a nutshell, is what makes playing with scouts on so much fun.
So my question is, Who do you listen to? Your scout or the OSA scouts? I find a huge difference in opinion between the two. The two guys that Kevin mentions above are viewed as 'average' by one and more 'studly' by the other.
I'm curious what people look at as being more valuable.
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
Borealis wrote:So my question is, Who do you listen to? Your scout or the OSA scouts? I find a huge difference in opinion between the two. The two guys that Kevin mentions above are viewed as 'average' by one and more 'studly' by the other.
I'm curious what people look at as being more valuable.
There's no right answer to this. When I was running the Borealis, my personal policy was to check both ratings and put greater emphasis on a player's ratings when OSA and my scout saw eye-to-eye. In cases where they didn't see eye-to-eye, I would usually err on the side of favoring my own scout. However, I would take into account a player's performance and how that seemed to line up with the ratings. If my scout was hating on a player that OSA loved and that player was performing, I ignored my scout and went with OSA.
It's all very touchy-feely, though - which, frankly, I love. I would hate to know the right answer. Force me to puzzle it out! This system rewards the owners who demonstrate evaluative skills, just as you'd see in real life.
In agreement with John , there is absolutely no right answer.
Further, if you rely on just one method, you would be doing yourself a disservice as well.
When I look at the scouts ratings versus OSA, I generally put more faith in my scout. It's probably about a 80/20 ratio. I look at what my scout has to say first. Then evaluate stats, playing time, age, etc, etc, etc. OSA is usually one of the last things I look at, and then mostly with younger players. OSA might give you a clue when it's combined with the other methods. But if you look to OSA alone, you could find yourself in a little trouble.
You can't overlook the importance of stats. I think that might be part of what makes the 08 draft look better than 07. It was easier to evaluate players based on multiple seasons of stats. I would expect that as time goes by, the 09 draft could look a little better than 08, and 10 could look better than 09.
What I find out between OSA and Scout ratings is that a players true value is somewhere in the middle. For instance if a players ratings are 7 6 4 7 8 by my scout and his OSA ratings are 9 5 6 8 7 i pretty much add everything and divide by two and that is how I evaluate a player and it works out well for me.
Well draft day is about one week away. This is probably my favorite time of the PEBA season. This will also be our first season that the draft will not be done live to kick it off. I always enjoyed the "live" factor for its banter and unpredictability. There's been numerous times where I had to race against the clock to submit my draft pick as my desired player was just chosen ahead of me. So I guess in a way, StatsLab drafting will allow more thinking time. I doubt it will happen but I always wish it was practical to trade draft picks during the draft. Not doing it live certainly makes it easier to negotiate draft day trades but probably still not feasible.
Just out of curiosity, do you prefer a live based or forum based draft? In previous leagues, I used to do hour-slotted draft selections on the forums. I was never really a fan of that. Ha, I used to log onto the league at work during my draft hour and make semi-blind selections since I didn't have the scouting reports at work.
Anyway good luck to everyone in the draft! I guess we can say the Browns... err Yuma is on the clock. Hopefully we can get through at least 3 rounds during the break and continue with the live draft when we come back. There's a lot of top rated closers and relievers at the top of the draft. I think their drafting position will really set up the rest of the draft. Who's willing to take a risk that one of these relievers will develop a third pitch?
I'm still a little confused as to how the draft is going to work. I understand it will be through StatsLab, but will it be automatic pick from our Draft list or is it going to be manaul? My other online league we did the draft through the game in pieces, each round we could update our list, so that was easy. I get the forum part, but I definitely don't want to screw up the first few rounds!
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
I wanted to bring up the enigma that is 1B Jose "Vapor Lock" Martinez. Matt (SA) mentioned him earlier in this thread. He has large potential numbers in 3 of the 5 hitting categories at least. My scout has him at 7-7-9-4-3, 8 work ethic and 10 leader. So, those numbers coupled with his really cool nickname makes him a strong prospect.
But......where in the hell is my scout getting his predictions from??? As far as I can see, this potential future stud hitter has never even hit a baseball in an organized league in his life!!!!! So, why should this player see the light of day when being considered to be drafted?
Go to his batting stats and filter high school. Nothing! Filter college ball. Nothing! He has never had 1 AB in organized baseball above the age of 13 and yet my scout has him rated as a potential ML All-Star?!?!??
Is my version of OOTPX screwed up or does this guy not have 1 AB in history???
As far as the draft goes. I thoroughly enjoy the community feel of a live draft!! There is no comparison to that in any corner of any type of a fantasy baseball league. No question! If you're prepared, you'll do well and if you aren't prepared, you probably won't. Such is life. What I love is the ability to chat, joke, tell stories, and learn from other owners. That, you cannot put a price tag on my friends!
Regarding Jose "Vapor Lock" Martinez: Judging by his Intelligence rating, I'm going to guess he was academically ineligible, and I demand that whoever drafts him crafts a story around this theory.
Funny Bill, my scout rates him exactly the same as yours. I always wondered how much scouting investment is really worth it. For the most part, it appears a lot of scouts are fairly within the ballpark of one another. I guess you just have to pay premium for that 1% boost heh.
With our scouts both favoring tools, perhaps this is our scouts' project of him based on tools? At 6'0 and 245 pounds, this guy has the body frame to become a prime time power hitter. I recall SA Matt talking about size and weight in the past. I wonder how true is that? Does Markus really program height and weight into the equation. I know height/weight affects Front Office Football but not sure about OOTP. A counterexample would be Joel Swedlove though. The guy is only 145 pounds!
Sandgnats (Bill) wrote:I wanted to bring up the enigma that is 1B Jose "Vapor Lock" Martinez. Matt (SA) mentioned him earlier in this thread. He has large potential numbers in 3 of the 5 hitting categories at least. My scout has him at 7-7-9-4-3, 8 work ethic and 10 leader. So, those numbers coupled with his really cool nickname makes him a strong prospect.
But......where in the hell is my scout getting his predictions from??? As far as I can see, this potential future stud hitter has never even hit a baseball in an organized league in his life!!!!! So, why should this player see the light of day when being considered to be drafted?
Go to his batting stats and filter high school. Nothing! Filter college ball. Nothing! He has never had 1 AB in organized baseball above the age of 13 and yet my scout has him rated as a potential ML All-Star?!?!??
Is my version of OOTPX screwed up or does this guy not have 1 AB in history???
As far as the draft goes. I thoroughly enjoy the community feel of a live draft!! There is no comparison to that in any corner of any type of a fantasy baseball league. No question! If you're prepared, you'll do well and if you aren't prepared, you probably won't. Such is life. What I love is the ability to chat, joke, tell stories, and learn from other owners. That, you cannot put a price tag on my friends!
Now, that would not be a fun world to live in at first! What would we do without PEBA/LRS and computers?!?!?!? 
Ahh, back to Markus Hancock. We were all drooling when he entered the draft pool and I think Matt is exactly right in that Hancock had a control of 7 prior to being drafted!! For a little history for you newcomers to PEBA, here's an article to get you acquainted. I mean Markus Hancock is such a good pitcher that his teammates don't even tease him about unfortunate last name! 
