How bad was the off season in San Diego?

[Matt]

An interesting breakdown on just what transpired in San Diego this past off-season, and how it predictably went so terribly wrong. It's worth a read, it's definitely a primer in what NOT to do as a GM.

http://grantland.com/features/aj-prelle ... ague-west/

[Arroyos]

For those of us living the good life down here in San Diego county, the rise and meteoric fall of the Padres has been painful to watch. For several years, our hopes were bolstered by the talent in the minor leagues and the wise, if cautious, trades made by management. Then Preller arrived, to a great deal of fanfare. He promised success THIS year and began acquiring some name players, which got him a lot of favorable press. When the season started and the Padres rode the top of the NL West for a short while, it looked like Preller had pulled off the coup of the century.

But now we know he's just another showy magician with a bag of illusions. Problem is, we will have to live with the consequences of his disastrous show of tricks for many years.

[Simon]

Nice reading, especially since im a Giants fan

[Bill]

The author piles on a little. Maybin and Seth Smith are not above average OFs. Maybin is just a little hot right now and it looks bad; he'll hit .240 soon enough. Smith is a platoon/PH OF that plays horrible defense. The Padres do still have some valuable assets also (Myers, Upton, Shields, Kimbrel, Ross, Cashner at the very least).

Though two things do stand out:
1) the Kemp deal could be one of the worst trades ever
2) he traded way too many prospects at once; none of those deals are killers in and of themselves, but the sum is pretty horrible.

Firing Bud Black may not have been the greatest move in the world either...

[Coqui]

Barely three months in, it’s clear that Preller’s gamble has been a bust.

Probably, but this statement is premature on its face. Granted, if Preller tears it all down after three months, as has been rumored he is planning, he will fulfill this prophecy. And firing Bud Black was idiotic, and in and of itself should get Preller fired.

But... sometimes prospects don't make it. They get hurt (a la Fried and Hahn, both mentioned in the story), they underachieve, they start chasing Rihanna around, etc.

The general rule of thumb is that you can't judge a trade until years down the road.

And yeah, if the best players you trade away are Seth Smith and Cameron Maybin, that's certainly not a hanging offense, the best three months of Maybin's career notwithstanding.

[Matt]

2) he traded way too many prospects at once; none of those deals are killers in and of themselves, but the sum is pretty horrible.

Firing Bud Black may not have been the greatest move in the world either...

The sum is what makes it look so bad. He wiped out a good farm system, plus gave up his top picks, and it's really hard to say he got anything for it. Yes, there are some assets there, but he is likely to get less for them in a fire sale than he paid for them. He was getting a season of Upton. He trades for a closer he didn't need, and closers tend to flame out rather quickly anyway. Atlanta has been pretty shrewd over the years about dumping pitchers right before they either get hurt or flame out. I am always skeptical when Atlanta trades a pitcher.

As I watched this unfold over the off-season, every time he acquired someone I kept thinking either bad idea or bad fit. There was a gaping hole in centerfield that I just could not take my eye off, especially in Petco. Middlebrooks just doesn't look like a major league player. You could go on and on.

As far as the Longshoremen's comment about the best player traded away, that might have been Grandal, in the Kemp deal, and yeah, that one might be a hanging offense before all is said and done, imo.

[Coqui]

As far as the Longshoremen's comment about the best player traded away, that might have been Grandal, in the Kemp deal, and yeah, that one might be a hanging offense before all is said and done, imo.

Yeah, that's the open question, although in a vaccuum, the Padres could still be a winner in that trade. If healthy, Matt Kemp could still be a 3+ WAR hitter offensively (although admittedly, he's a bad fit defensively for Petco unless his knees find the fountain of youth). Thanks to park factors, Grandal was always a better offensive player than he appeared to be in San Diego, but I tend to doubt a lot of the newfound happy talk about his defensive skills. Defensive metrics for catchers aren't what they are for other positions, but his are still roundly subpar, just as they have been for his whole career. He isn't good at controlling the running game, and he leads the NL in passed balls this season. Heck, he led the NL in passed balls last season despite playing only 607 innings at the position. And that's for 2 different pitching staffs, so it's not likely to be all the pitchers' fault.

I wouldn't hire AJ Preller to GM my team right now, but I'm also not ready to crucify him. Yet.

[Arroyos]

I wouldn't hire AJ Preller to GM my team right now, but I'm also not ready to crucify him. Yet.

BREAKING NEWS FROM SAN DIEGO ...

17 July 2015: San Diego — Crowds swarmed into the streets of the Gas Lamp District in downtown San Diego this evening demanding that the Padres Baseball Club relinquish their GM A.J. Preller. The protestors carried wooden crosses and buckets of tar as they surged from the restaurant and nightlife zone of the city towards Petco Park, specifically toward the Padres' offices on the corner of Park Blvd. and Tony Gwynn Drive. With cries of "Crucify him!" and "Ride him on a rail outa town!" it wasn't clear whether the mob intended to string up the new GM or just force him to leave town in a hurry.

As this report was filed, the police were gathering on horseback to cordon off Petco Park. The Padres' scheduled game against the Colorado Rockies at 7 this evening in Petco Park has been postponed. More later, as this story develops.

[Matt]

If i was a Padres fan, i think i might be in that mob. Though honestly, hasn't Philadelphia given Amaro enough rope? The disaster there was seen coming at least as far back as the Howard extension, yet everyone seems content to watch the slow motion train wreck that is the Phillies with what can only be described as morbid curiosity.

[Coqui]

Though honestly, hasn't Philadelphia given Amaro enough rope? The disaster there was seen coming at least as far back as the Howard extension, yet everyone seems content to watch the slow motion train wreck that is the Phillies with what can only be described as morbid curiosity.

How that couch fire hasn't been extinguished yet, I have absolutely no idea. That is a bad, bad team. And a very, very expensive one. With a toxic clubhouse. If Hamels and Papelbon aren't dealt right now this very minute (well, before the trade deadline, anyway) while they still have maximum value, Phillies fans should burn down the ballpark.

[Borealis]

Firing Bud Black may not have been the greatest move in the world either...

Unequivocally This.

As the former Padres manager found greener (wiser) pocket books in Northern California, I always thought Bud Black was a good selection. After sticking with the guy through losing seasons, to fire him after expecting miracles by throwing a bunch of names together, is ludicrous! History shows you'll fail at that just as often as win...