FANTASTIC article about scouting

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John
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FANTASTIC article about scouting

#1 Post by John »

A few of you were complaining recently about your head scouts "downgrading" some of your players with the turn of the new year. Scouting is such integral part of our league that it's only natural owners have come to place a great deal of emphasis on the reports of their scouts. But how well do we really understand our scouts?

Well, read through the first four posts of this amazing thread on scouting and you may very well find you know a lot less than you think (NOTE: You may have to click on the link twice to be able to view the thread). This is essential reading to anyone who wants to maximize their understanding of scouting in OOTP.

I've already learned a great deal from this thread. For instance, I've completely ignored my scouts preferences to this point. After reading this I realize that's a huge mistake. My scouts have a tendency to value prospects very highly, meaning they're likely downgrading veterans. I need to factor that in when I read my scouts reports; a well-performing veteran that my scouts are somewhat down on may still be worth pursuing once their bias is taking into account. This is especially important in understanding why your scouts may sometimes give a player a lower star rating than you'd otherwise expect given the ability ratings they're reporting.

The section on draft preparation is a must-read. I followed a somewhat similar plan last year, but the writer here goes into far more detail. If you have access to Excel, I can't recommend his system enough. As he says, it's the picks you make in the middle rounds that win championships, and the best informed owners are the ones likely to make the best picks.

One area that's worth reminding people about is the need to have your scouts doing something. It doesn't matter what... you just don't want these guys sitting around collecting 6-figure paychecks and doing no work whatsoever! PEBA has 144 major league scouting positions. 26 scouts filling those positions are currently idle and another 5 positions are unfilled, meaning 31 out of 144 ML scouting positions (21.5%) aren't being utilized. That's much better than the 37.8% idle rate in eMLB (the league where this write-up took place), but it's still higher than it should be. Get your scouts in the game!

There's a final point that I'd like to add. At the end of the day, no matter how much you maximize your knowledge of scouting, it's important to remember that whenever you read a scout's report you're reading an opinion. It doesn't matter how highly rated the scout is or how much his bias seems to favor what you're scouting; he still is making his best guess. Remember that when you see him downgrade one of your prized players. Has the player changed? Absolutely not; the scout's opinion of the player has changed. And as we all know, everyone's entitled to their opinion... even if it's wrong. :D
Last edited by John on Fri May 09, 2008 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ghosts
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#2 Post by Ghosts »

I second the recommendation.

As somebody who has fallen in love with scouting and analyzing players...so much so that I'm enjoying the off-season even more than the regular season...this info is fantastic.

Really probably the best PEBA related thing I've read (besides the commish's posts and everyone articles...naturally :) )
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#3 Post by Coqui »

What a tremendous amount of reading that was. This really comes a lot to your preferences though. Do you favor scouting or favor numbers? Do you combine the two? Personally, I lean toward the numbers because they are an actual reflection of what the player can do. I use my scouts to try and confirm my suspicions.
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#4 Post by John »

Longshoremen wrote:What a tremendous amount of reading that was. This really comes a lot to your preferences though. Do you favor scouting or favor numbers? Do you combine the two? Personally, I lean toward the numbers because they are an actual reflection of what the player can do. I use my scouts to try and confirm my suspicions.
I think that's a perfectly valid way to approach things. I too place a great deal of emphasis on the numbers (well, certain numbers at least). The scouts are another tool, though, and I think they're an often misunderstood source of knowledge. This can be a particular problem when you're placing particular emphasis on scouting reports (as I know some of our owners do). Hopefully this article will help the owners who use (and even more so, those who favor) scouting to better understand how it works.
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#5 Post by Duane »

And I thought the strategy rating for scouts were there in case he was hired as a manager or coach ....
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Even though we fell short against Duluth in 2026 ... and SS in 2027 and 2029 8-o
IL still RULES!!!!!
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#6 Post by Tyler »

Thoroughbreds wrote:And I thought the strategy rating for scouts were there in case he was hired as a manager or coach ....
That's what I thought too. Does he have a source for this?
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#7 Post by John »

You know, I thought the same thing as you guys. But I've checked and, as it turns out, the author is correct. I found this in the manual that backs up his claim:
14.2.1. Overall Roster Strategy
The Overall Roster Strategy section defines a person’s overall preferences when building or managing a team. These settings also influence your scouts. For example, if you send a scout to cover the first-year player draft, and he favors players with power over those with speed, then amateur players with high power are more likely to get good reviews from the scout than those with good speed.
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#8 Post by Ghosts »

i think the biggest problem i initially had with scouting was the "star" rating system. it was (and, truthfully, remains) so gratifying to see "*****" light up the screen.

however, i try my hardest to ignore them. and -- in case anyone didn't know this (and i may have been the only one that was confused) -- the star rating system is position dependent. so a "****" SS can immediately be reduced to a "**" 1B with the click of a button. this may not always be the case, but i've noticed it a couple times.

another reason to ignore * in favor of ratings themselves.

...though i agree, after a few years in the majors (with a few exceptions...like an angry player or a really bad team) stats really seem to be what matters far and away the most.

another thing i've noticed is that (like real life) players with potential seem to develop better when they've got some veteran leadership around them. in other words, those great potential rankings may be a lot less attainable if you field a team of 23 year old studs with high potential. i've noticed more than once that the teams that have mixed up their line-up and eased the youngsters in a few at a time seem to be getting better results.
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#9 Post by John »

I second the idea about the stars. I can say unequivocally that there's no bit of "data" I routinely ignore more than the star ratings. I've always felt they were purely subjective, and now that I understand how scouting bias works I feel that's even more true than ever.

The Bears are absolutely right that stars scale according to a player's position. The closer on my squad last year, Anastasio Guzmán, was initially listed as a 5* MR. I changed his designation to CL and he instantly dropped to 3*. Was he suddenly a worse player? Not at all; the game was just suddenly valuing him in a different way. But all I value is the 3.11 ERA / 1.18 WHIP / 25 Saves he posted for my team. My suggestion is to make star ratings your valuation method of last resort.
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#10 Post by Duane »

maybe we can eliminate the *s .... John???
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IL still RULES!!!!!
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#11 Post by Tyler »

Thoroughbreds wrote:maybe we can eliminate the *s .... John???
Oh, I don't think there's any reason to eliminate them. Stars being position-dependent is no different than VORP. Stars, however, seem to be kinda like wins as far as information goes. Sure, they tell you something, and can differentiate between a scrub and a superstar, but not that well. I don't see anything wrong with keeping them in the game.
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#12 Post by Duane »

ok I need a clarification.
higher rating will give a more favorable or more accurate scouting report???
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Even though we fell short against Duluth in 2026 ... and SS in 2027 and 2029 8-o
IL still RULES!!!!!
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#13 Post by Coqui »

More accurate. How accurate is debatable.
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#14 Post by Reg »

after reading the article the way I understand it is that the higher the rating the more accurate it will be, depending on the scouts preference...for example a scout with high ratings in hitting will give accurate ratings for hitters, and more so for veterans if his preference leans that way....

However, a scout that favors defense over hitting or power over contact will give more stars to a player that excels in the category they like the most..so again the stars are subjective in two ways, first by position and second by preference
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#15 Post by Sandgnats (Bill) »

Thanks John-that was an excellent read!

I personally do not value the star ratings of scouts. Like the thread discusses, scout's ratings are very subjective. There is also very little difference (as I'm sure all of you have noticed) between a 1 star player and a 3 star player. It can literally be the difference of a few rating points in power and gap. It's incredibly difficult to not get excited when I see a 4 or 5 star potential player. You just have to train yourself and see how the player ratings best fit your needs.

You have to take into account the side of the plate they hit from, where they will hit in the lineup, and most importantly-BALLPARK EFFECT. I think this gets overlooked a lot when GM's are scouting free agents and possible additions. This of course, comes into play with evaluating veterans more than prospects. When you are indeed in the market for any player and you're evaluating based on the previous season's stats-CHECK OUT THE BALLPARK EFFECT!

For instance, if you happen to be perusing the free agents and see a stud RF that's a right hander and hit 40 HR's last year for New Orleans. You're thinking to yourself, "He is just what I need here in West Virginia" Because nobody seemed to hit the longball last year. Well, a RH stick in West Virginia has a .682 HR % while in NO, RH batters hit it out at 1.054 %. That's a 37% decrease at home!

On the other end of things, if you're thinking of acquiring a Tempe SP that gave up a lot of hits but only a few HR's last year. Well....there's a reason for that. Have you ever tried to hit a HR over a 483 foot CF wall?!?!?? I mean, it's 460 feet to left center for god's sake. That is one huge park and you need to understand that will have one dramatic effect on Tempe's stats.

As far as youngins, I think it's especially difficult to evaluate prospects according to their minor league performances. We only have one year of stats to gaze upon and guess. Considering a seemingly great year, we have no idea if everything all of sudden clicked for them(like Geovany Soto in MLB) or they just had a fluke-Joe Charboneau type year. (I think I'm dating myself here- :D )

So, don't get all bent out of shape about your prospects going bust after 1 season. Know your scouts and know them well! If you still hate your former 5 star studs after carefully evaluating your evaluaters(scouts)- TRADE THEM TO ME!! :grin:
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