Strong Rookie Class

[Tyler]

In stark contrast to previous years of PEBA, there's both a strong class of rookies and competitive Wunderkind races this season. Let's take a quick look at the previous crops of rookies to break in to PEBA, with the Wunderkind winner listed first, followed by other notable rookies. VORP is listed after each name.

2007
Imperial League
SP Yukio Fujita 45.6
SP Michael Bender 38.3
CF Orlando German 19.8

Sovereign League
DH Kuemon Kiyomizu 90.3
2B Steven McDonald 41.0
DH P.J. Thomas 19.7

2008
Imperial League
CF Orlando Garcia 54.2
MR Guillermo Marquez 22.4

Sovereign League
SP Bryan Brown 19.8
OF Domingo Ramirez 15.3
SP Lowell Tolbert 15.0

For comparison, here are the projected final numbers for this year's rookie class:

2009
Imperial League
MR Darwin Craft 41.8
1B/DH Yong-Zhan Hu 33.9
SP Cipriano Pena 24.7

Sovereign League
SS Raul Garcia 57.7
SP Adrian Resendez 43.1
SS Pablo Espinosa 19.7

It's a three-way race in the IL and a two-way race in the SL. Compare this to previous years, in which only the 2007 IL and 2008 SL have been competitive. The 2008 SL Wunderkind was only up for grabs because everybody stunk; this year clearly features five deserving players. It should be an exciting race to the finish.

[John]

Holy crap; Darwin Craft totally caught me by surprise, and that doesn't happen to me too often. I had no idea how valuable he's been this year. I thought it was all Yong-Zhan Hu, all the time over there in the IL. I'll have to keep a closer eye on Craft.

I'm pleased to see Pablo Espinosa doing so well. I always wish the best for my former farmhands, although that will change if and when Aurora matches up against Crystal Lake in the playoffs!

[James Bowman]

I'm not sure if Florida has recently changed their pitching depth around, or if this is further proof that OOTP doesn't know how to use it in the first place, but Craft is listed as their 4th MR. He is on pace for 140 IP!

That's astounding.

[Coqui]

I'm not sure if Florida has recently changed their pitching depth around, or if this is further proof that OOTP doesn't know how to use it in the first place, but Craft is listed as their 4th MR. He is on pace for 140 IP!

That's astounding.

This brings me to a question, actually. Do we know how OOtP is on arm injuries to young pitchers? Should Tempe be praying every night that Hancock is not the next Mark Prior or is the game more forgiving of overuse? I've not played enough to know exactly how the engine deals with this but I am very curious as to what will happen to these young pitchers.

[Matt]

Yeah, I second the Longshoreman's question.

Despite his success, I would still worry about Hancock. The book is still being written on him, 2 months of success does not a career make. Ask any young pitcher who played for Dusty Baker.

[John]

While I don't know the definitive answer, I can tell you that I place a stricter pitch count on my younger pitchers for exactly the reasons you bring up. I suspect OOTP does account for the increased injury chance to younger pitchers. That's just speculation on my part, though.

[klewis]

Kinda funny you should mention Darwin Craft. At the start of the season, I placed him as my 4th slotted reliever just based on his inexperience and ratings compared to my other relievers. But as the season went on, he was coming through for me time after time. I wanted to tinker with my pitching depth and promote him to the top of the depth chart but I figured he seems to always be in the thick of things so I just left it as is.

I think part of the reason why he appears in a lot of games despite being 4th is because he is right-handed. My first two slotted relievers are left-handed. It still does not explain why he appears in more games than Tanyu Chikafuji though.

Don't scare me about all this stuff about arms falling off!

Thanks for mentioning Craft though. It's good to hear relievers being discussed for the Wunderkind. The bullpen is definitely the strength of my team. Maybe Florida needs to run an ad campaign for him some time

[Nigel]

That's a great question about young pitchers. I used to lurk quite a bit at the OOTP forums and don't remember anybody really giving a great answer on it. Most people thought that pitchers were too durable with injuries even set to average. I've noticed that a little bit in some solo leagues I've run as well. It seems that position players usually get knocked out with some crazy baserunning injury while all these stud pitchers are piling up 10+ seasons of 200IP. On the flip side of that though, you can look at a guy like Ronald Workman and wonder if his workload last year is hurting him this year.

[Cole]

I don't know if SP Er Hang qualifies as a rookie (I think he should because he only pitched 28 innings last year), but his numbers are better than Resendez and was an All-Star. Just thought he should be on the list.

[Tyler]

I don't know if SP Er Hang qualifies as a rookie (I think he should because he only pitched 28 innings last year), but his numbers are better than Resendez and was an All-Star. Just thought he should be on the list.

Hang is not a rookie - he had too many days of service time last year. But if he were, he and his projected 70 VORP would be runaway favorites for rookie of the year.

[Alan Ehlers]

If Hancock gets injured then what can you do. I mean he is 22 and in great shape and if he hurts his arm then it could have easily happened at Double AA. I mean when did it get written that all young pitchers are brittle and that it is inevitable that they will hurt their arm if they pitch 200 innings.

[Maulers]

If Hancock gets injured then what can you do. I mean he is 22 and in great shape and if he hurts his arm then it could have easily happened at Double AA. I mean when did it get written that all young pitchers are brittle and that it is inevitable that they will hurt their arm if they pitch 200 innings.

I think that the bigger issue with Hancock is that, in spite of his success thus far, he remains far from a finished product. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him regress a bit next year and then begin to progress again. While it's hard to argue with Chris' handling of him so far, it does seem to me that Hancock's sprint through the minors is likely to result in some inconsistency down the road.

[Sandgnats (Bill)]

If Hancock gets injured then what can you do. I mean he is 22 and in great shape and if he hurts his arm then it could have easily happened at Double AA. I mean when did it get written that all young pitchers are brittle and that it is inevitable that they will hurt their arm if they pitch 200 innings.

I think that the bigger issue with Hancock is that, in spite of his success thus far, he remains far from a finished product. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him regress a bit next year and then begin to progress again. While it's hard to argue with Chris' handling of him so far, it does seem to me that Hancock's sprint through the minors is likely to result in some inconsistency down the road.

My response is to the injury side of Hancock and young pitchers alike.........

I think that many of us have a hard time separating OOTP from MLB. OOTP pitchers are not real pitchers! I haven't found any evidence that OOTP starting pitchers arms get overworked and are therefore more prone to injuries. I think that in the real world the idea that pitcher's arms break down is burned into our brains and we can't help but be cautious with our PEBA pitchers. I have thought the same way and it's hard to break that habit of thinking, but I think it would benefit us to do so.

Also, I have read posts on the OOTP forums and injuries aren't bound to reoccur(as opposed to real life). If a pitcher missed 6-7 months last year due to a torn bicep injury, for example, he is not anymore likely to have that same injury than any other type of arm injury. (Obviously his arm injuries depend on his injury ratings) From what I have read(and have experienced), the injuries sustained are pretty random and unpredictable.

So, I only see two things that factor into injuries:
1) The players' injury ratings
2) Luck
We cannot control either one, so don't worry about it. If you are fortunate to have a great PEBA player, use him now and win as many games while you can!