The PEBA’s Most Valuable Players – 2040 Edition

[Lions]

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It’s been nearly a decade since we’ve made an attempt to rank PEBA players, but it’s time to go ahead and give it another go. Back by popular demand (one or two people?), here is the 2040 edition of the PEBA‘s Most Valuable Players. For those who are new and haven’t read one of these before, and for those who are old and can’t remember that long ago, I’ll first talk briefly about what this list is and what it isn’t.

This list most definitely is a ranking of the best players in PEBA, however it’s not strictly a list of their WAR or other statistical contribution. It is at its core, an attempt to give relative values to players based on a variety of things. Generally speaking, a higher ranked player would not be traded 1 for 1 for a lower ranked player. Of course, individual team situations can easily alter that calculation. The rankings will take into account a player’s age, position, and contract situation. Performance at the PEBA level is the primary consideration, but there are also adjustments made for volatility and expectation going forward. That said, prospects who have yet to establish themselves properly will not appear on the list here. Player ages on the list reflect their ages for the 2040 season.

Please enjoy the list. There are almost certainly players left out that you would have included had you made your own. You would’ve put players in a different order and left some players out completely. Who here surprises you?

The List

25. 1B Francisco Cabrera (TOY) – 27 – He’s just two seasons removed from 50 home runs and last year’s SL Royal Raker. While Cabrera can’t run much and he’ll only walk occasionally, he’ll hit line drives all over the ball park and many of them out of it. Since his first full season in 2036, he leads all SL hitters in extra base hits.

24. SP James McCoy (PS) – 25 – The Codgers acquired McCoy last July 4th for a bevy of prospects in their bid to climb the shifting sands of the Desert Hills. McCoy was Arlington‘s biggest draw the past few years and for good reason. He’s got 3 top tier pitches and a good curveball to keep hitters guessing. After putting up a 3.89 ERA for Arlington in the first half of the year, he had a 2.05 ERA in 12 starts for Palm Springs.

23. SP José Hernández (LON) – 25 – London’s young ace is coming off back to back 12-6 seasons in which he had a combined ERA of 2.84. That’s 5th across PEBA for those two years. He strikes out about a batter per inning thanks to one of the best changeups in the league. The only real knock on him is that he doesn’t go particularly deep into games, averaging less than 5 2/3 innings per start.

22. CF Zhao-dao Lew (WV) – 26 – There’s a general perception that it’s hard to find a good centerfielder in the PEBA, but there are actually a few of them who have solid enough defense to elevate them over their corner outfielder peers who might be flashier with the bat. Lew isn’t going to hit a ton of home runs, although hell poke one out now and then. Rather he’ll hit for average, draw a walk, and steal bunch of bases. He’s kind of annoying like that.

21. SS Pablo Ortíz (NJ) – 33 – The oldest player in the top 25, Ortíz is a defensive savant with a Royal Raker worthy bat. He won it twice in succession just two years ago. Now on his 4th team, he has a reputation as a bit of a clubhouse cancer, but the 6-time All-Star’s contributions on the field have kept him in demand and in the lineup. Last year he was “down” to 38 home runs and 5.7 WAR. If the Hitmen can unseat the Alleghenies atop the IL Seaboard division, he’ll be a big reason why.

20. CF Pedro Bermúdez (KEN) – 27 – Bermúdez is most known for his defense and speed, but he’s gradually been getting better with the bat each of the past few seasons. He has hit 20+ home runs each of the past four seasons, his average has gradually climbed, and he’s hitting the ball into the gaps more. A highly rated prospect with West Virginia, the Thoroughbreds gave up Golden Arm winner Cheh Zhang and a 1st round pick to get him, so it’s good to see that he’s continuing to improve and lock down center field.

19. SP Seong-chin Kim (MAD) – 27 – Madison’s lefty ace took a bit step forward in 2039 when he halved his home runs allowed from an average of 1 per 9 innings to less than 1 per 18. The primary knock on him is that he doesn’t go deep into games, but he’s posted about 180 IP each of the past three seasons, so it’s not like he’s not getting his work in. A two-time All-Star, Kim is the kind of pitcher the Malts can build a staff around to try to get that first postseason appearance.

18. 1B Rocky Nichols (LON) – 28 – Nichols has been playing first base for the Underground so we’ve got him listed there, but he’s best suited as a DH. He’s a lean 200 lbs given his 6’5″ stature, and he just whips his bat through the zone at anything he likes. An All-Star each of the past two seasons, you can pretty much pencil him in for an average right around .300, 30+ home runs, 40 or so doubles, and around 100 RBI and runs scored. Classic #3 hitter.

17. 3B António Herrera (DUL) – 28 – Herrera debuted at 21 and has been a regular ever since, amassing nearly 1200 hits heading into 2040 and his age 28 season. How does that compare with PEBA career hit leaders? Well, he’s ahead of them by age at this point. His 1188 hits through age 27 are nearly 100 ahead of Clarence Carpenter. Brad Davis had just over 1000 at that stage, and Rob Raines was at just over 600. Of course, Herrera will have to play for a long time to reach their totals, but given how far along he is already, he’s got a great shot at cracking the top 10, and possibly the top 5.

16. SP Young-pil Pin (YUM) – 25 – The Kalamazoo Badgers international scouting department signed Pin just 6 days after he turned 16 way back in 2030. The 6’5″ Korean pitcher was then involved in the blockbuster deal that saw the Badgers acquire Wilson Muñóz from Florida, ultimately leading to Kalamazoo’s first playoff appearance in a decade. Six months later, Yuma swooped in and acquired him for pitcher Dave Hull. Pin was a long way off from the PEBA, but has since developed into the pitcher everyone thought he could be. Having made his PEBA debut at 19 years old, Pin didn’t even really have an adjustment period. He hasn’t won many games due to Yuma’s lack of offensive weapons these last few years, but he’s got an ERA under 3.00 for his career.

15. LF José Ríos (FLA) – 26 – Like Pin, Ríos was signed at just 16 years old after Florida scouts saw him on the sandlots in Nicaragua. He was listed among PEBA’s top prospects later that year, and has since become a 3-time All-Star who does everything well. He has stolen progressively more bases each year of his career.

14. LF Sandor Vis (AMA) – 30 – Vis holds the distinction of being the 4th pick of the (in)famous 2031 draft after Florida took their 3 generational talents. The draft was loaded with quality players, but after the top 3, there were some questions about who would be the next most valuable player. Amsterdam has gotten a ton of value with their choice. Vis doesn’t drive the ball enough to hit a lot of home runs, he’s never even hit 10 in a season, but he just plain hits. He boast a career average over .300, with an OBP just under .400. His game is about getting on base. And speed. You can’t really ignore that with him. The PEBA single season record holder with 121 stolen bases in 2034, he’s stolen at least 90 bases on 5 different occasions.

13. SP Edgardo Trevino (FLA) – 28 – Trevino struggled to make it into Florida’s rotation, but he was rushed slightly due to having been exposed and claimed by the Ghosts in the Rule 5 draft. In 2039, he broke a streak of 3 consecutive 19-3 seasons. He went 19-4. He’s a bit of a poster child for how difficult it is to make a PEBA All-Star team as a pitcher. Despite great success, he’s only been on the team twice so far.

12. SP René Padilla (DUL) – 26 – Padilla has just over 4 full seasons of work in the PEBA at this point, and has already amassed 60 wins for a Warriors team that’s had some ups and downs. In 2039, he led the SL with 24 quality starts. He primarily relies on a fastball, curveball, and sinker, but he will occasionally throw a changeup or screwball in there to mix it up.

11. 2B Eric Nelson (SCO) – 29 – Nelson’s trade to the Claymores prior to the 2039 season was the 3rd time he’d been involved in a trade that included a 1st round draft pick. In the minors, he was a highly rated prospect who had a poor reputation, but his talent was visible for all to see. The past few seasons with Palm Springs, he started to show that he was a more than capable PEBA regularly. His breakout with the Claymores, however, was beyond anything he’d come close to before. He put up 10.0 WAR after having never broken 4.0 in the past. He posted career highs in nearly everything, hitting .320 with 39 home runs, 109 RBI, 104 R, and 21 SB’s.

10. CF Zak Osmond (LON) – 24 – After winning the 2037 IL Wunderkind Award, Osmond has since become a 2-time All-Star who’s got a great combination of power and speed. He has come close or reached a 30/30 season in each of his 3 PEBA campaigns. If that weren’t enough, he’s yet to have a year in which he hasn’t won All Leather honors for his glove work in the left field. The Underground are moving him to center for 2040, where he’s plenty capable as well.

9. SP Ding-bong Zhu (CST) – 23 – It’s a bit crazy to think that fans have been dying for Zhu to get more time at the PEBA level for a couple of years now and he just turned 23 last October. He has posted 5.8 WAR over the first 30 starts of his PEBA career, getting 8 starts in as a 21 year old and 22 last season. If you’re curious about his minor league numbers, bring along a microscope. You’ll need them to find his ERA’s the past 3 seasons.

8. SS Jin-song Zambrano (NII) – 28 – If you were asked who has posted the most WAR across the 2038 and 2039 seasons, the top 3 would likely rattle off of anyone’s tongue as Florida’s trio of stars. Zambrano is 4th. Zambrano is a breath taking shortstop who won All Leather last year, but he’s also got 30 home run power and an OPS+ of 150 over the past two years. In the Ghosts’ 2036 championship run, he was named SL Division and PEC series MVP.

7. SP Hen-to Tse (FLA) – 25 – It’s really hard to project lengthy careers for starting pitchers, but playing for the Florida juggernaut has Tse at 83 wins heading into his age 25 season. He has 3 seasons of 20+ wins. His career losses stand at 19. Only two players with over 100 games started have fewer losses, and no full time starter has more wins in as few starts. Tse doesn’t have the gaudy strikeout totals of other top starters, but he rarely walks anyone and keeps the ball in the park.

6. SP Manny Gracía (WV) – 24 – With back to back 200 strikeout seasons to start his career, Gracía has a Wunderkind and All-Star appearance to his name as he heads into his 3rd season. He’s got a blazing fastball, darting slider, and vanishing sinker. To throw hitters off, he’ll sometimes toss in a changeup, but there’s rarely any need for him to bother.

Players Ranked 26-50, In Alphabetical Order

1B Javier Aguilar (OKA) – 28 – An atypical first baseman, Aguilar doesn’t hit many home runs, but is more of a gap hitter who hits for high average and steals a bunch of bases. For the kind of value he provides, he’s signed to a very reasonable deal that can keep in Okinawa through 2043.

3B Santiago Aranda (NII) – 27 – Left unprotected in the 2036 Rule 5 draft, the Ghosts picked Aranda up for basically nothing. After working out a deal with the Bureaucrats to allow for some time in the minors, Aranda has since developed a good eye at the plate and an ability to hit for power.

2B Griff Aspinwall (REN) – 24 – The Zephyrs got a gem when they signed Aspinwall out of Aruba in 2032. He’s best at second base, but can play almost anywhere. He led the SL with a .315 average last year, added some occasional pop, and finished as the runner-up in SL Wunderkind voting.

SP Thibault Dejean (HAR) – 25 – Dejean doesn’t quite look like the second ace he was once hoped to be, but he’s a very solid #2 or #3 who could front the rotation for any number of other teams. For someone who throws in the upper 90’s it’s interesting that he pitches more like a junkballer. He doesn’t bring a traditional fastball, instead relying on a quiver of breaking pitches to keep hitters guessing.

SP Alberto Flores (SS) – 30 – In his first 3 seasons, Flores never had an ERA over 2.60. Since then, he hasn’t had an ERA under 3.59 (I really wanted this to be 3.60!). He’s kind of forgotten about but when you look at the numbers, in three of his last 4 seasons his FIP has been significantly lower than his ERA. In some cases, as much as a run lower. He has over 200 K’s in each of the last 3 seasons, and has made 30+ starts for 6 years running.

SP David García (FAR) – 24 – He struggled a bit as a 22 year old rookie in 2038, but last year García came out and showed what he was capable of. An SL leading 2.44 ERA and 1.02 WHIP were accompanied by 216 strikeouts in 188 innings. Fargo is putting together a pretty impressive collection of young starters, and García is the first to fully display his talents.

DH Dan Gore (KEN) – 26 – Any time Gore winds up in the field it’s the result of bad planning. Any time Gore stands at the plate, you should take some time to sit and watch. He’s more than likely to hit the ball hard somewhere. He’s one of 13 players to have recorded 40 doubles and 40 home runs in the same season. Only Gregory Arnold has done it more than once.

SP Kiyohira Goto (FLA) – 24 – Like many of his rotation-mates, Goto has a great winning percentage over his career so far. He’s 33-13 over the past two seasons. Last year, opponents hit a league worst .224 off of him on balls in play, so expect some regression to the mean on that in 2040.

LF Bruce Lawson (WV) – 27 – Lawson struggled to crack the Alleghenies’ deep lineup despite very good minor league numbers from his age 22 season in AA on up. When he did finally make the team at 25 in 2038, he promptly went out and led the IL with 51 doubles while hitting .333. Last year, some of those doubles started clearing the fence, and he hit a personal best 29 home runs. No small feat for a West Virginia hitter. Only four other players have hit that many in a season for them.

SP Masahiro Maruyama (HAV) – 25 – An All-Star in 2039, Maruyama is the face of hope for Havana as they have sought to rebuild without completely tearing things down. Since just missing out on the playoffs in 2036, the team has hovered around .500. He’s a true scouting and development success story for the Leones, having been drafted in the 9th round of the 2036 draft, but quickly ascending to top prospect status.

SS Ricardo Mateo (HAV) – 33 – Mateo’s Hall of Fame career keeps chugging along. He made his 10th All-Star team and posted his 7th 6+ WAR season in 2039. He’s just the 5th player, and 2nd position player, with that many All-Star games. Having made the postseason in each of his first 8 seasons, he’s now the veteran looking to lead the team back for the first time in 5 years.

C Kevin Newton (TOY) – 32 – Newton’s a 2-time All-Star who put up 5 consecutive 4+ WAR seasons until a bit of a dip last year. He’s always been a bit of a bat first catcher who’s passable behind the dish. Hit power numbers have started to drop the past few seasons, but he’s still one of the premier players at his position.

2B Joe Riley (BAK) – 32 – The IL’s leading home run hitter in 2039, he fell 1 blast shy of 50. His move to Bakersfield, a tough place to hit home runs, means he’ll likely not reach that total again, but pitchers are still wary of anything left out over the plate.

SP Roberto Rivera (KEN) – 31 – The 2033 SL Golden Arm winner for Shin Seiki, Rivera developed a reputation for being injury prone. That reputation was deserved, but over the past four seasons, he’s averaged nearly 30 starts per year. He does miss a few here and there, but he pitches well and set a career high with 208 1/3 innings pitched last year.

RP Jorge Ruíz (LON) – 25 – London deploys Ruíz as a stopper and it has allowed him to rack up an average of more than 100 relief innings out of the pen annually. Because of the way he’s deployed, he racks up about as many holds as saves for a combined total of over 30 a year. He’s been an All-Star and IL Reliever of the Year each of the past two seasons.

CF Ángel Silva (AUR) – 26 – Coming off of 4 straight All-Star appearances, Silva misses out on the top 25 after a bit of a down year in 2039, but there’s an argument to be made to have him higher up. He’s got great speed, confirmed by a 100 stolen base season to his name. His career average is right around .300. His weak spots are home run power and facing lefties. He’ll likely win an All Leather award one of these days.

SP Tetsui Suzuki (KAL) – 25 – Despite already having more WAR in 3 seasons than any other previous Tetsui, Suzuki is probably not a pitcher you think about much if you’re a casual fan or really just follow the IL. Two years ago, Suzuki went 16-6 for Tempe, prompting the Badgers to trade C Claudio Pérez straight up for him. He wasn’t quite as good in his first year with the team, but it was an understandable move. Suzuki is still very young, throws extremely hard, and does a decent job keeping the ball in the park. He’s unlikely to win a Golden Arm, but he could be the ace for a number of PEBA teams.

LF Ryo Takahashi (SS) – 28 – If any prospect ever wonders if they have the talent to make it, they just need to look at the 21st pick in the 20th round of the 2030 draft. Takahashi has some trouble with lefties, but he crushes righties enough that he’s averaged over 30 home runs in this first 4 PEBA seasons.

SP Will Taylor (TEM) – 28 – Originally a #6 overall pick out of UCLA by Duluth, Taylor now fronts the Apollos’ rotation. Scouts love his pitches, and at some point if he has a BABIP lucky season, he’s going to put up some crazy numbers. He’s got a career ERA of 3.62, but he’s never had a season with a BABIP under .300. At some point, you expect an outlier BABIP down in, say, the .270’s and his ERA will likely drop a full run as a result.

SP Fernando Valdéz (NII) – 25 – Wunderkind in 2036, Valdéz has yet to post an ERA in the 3’s or higher. 180+ strikeouts in 200+ innings each of the past two seasons, he was 17-7 last year with 23 quality starts. He gives up a few too many long balls, but is otherwise very good.

SP Derek Valera (MAN) – 31 – Valera has been toiling in obscurity in Manchester for years now, but the team is starting to get better and he was rewarded with a personal best 15-9 record in 2039. He has ceded the front of the rotation to younger, more promising pitchers, but he remains a veteran presence that can be relied upon for close to 200 IP and 200 K’s.

LF Juan Velásquez (DUL) – 29 – Duluth’s 3-time All Star outfielder is one of 5 players with multiple 100 SB seasons. Aside from his work on the base paths, he’s a well balanced hitter who has racked up 30 doubles, 10 triples and 20 home runs on 3 different occasions. Interestingly, he’s never had fewer than 10 triples in a season.

SP Shigochiyo Yamaguchi (PS) – 25 – Yamaguchi has everything in his arsenal to crack the top 25 next year, he just hasn’t shown it yet at the PEBA level. In 2039, his first full season, he posted a 116 ERA+ (3.34 ERA) over 28 starts, going 11-8 with 181 K’s in 180 2/3 innings of work.

C Iwao Yamamoto (AMA) – 27 – Catcher is the hardest position in PEBA to judge for a few reasons. First, it’s hard to determine just how valuable defense is. Second, they often don’t play as many games as other position players typically do, even when fully healthy. Yamamoto had a bit of a down year last year, but the 2-time All-Star still led all catchers in WAR. He’s very good defensively, and is one of just a few catchers with over 30% caught stealing percentage the past 3 years. Offensively, he’s got no power whatsoever, but will get on base at a .400 clip, which always plays.

SP Dong-hak Yi (KEN) – 27 – Yi was the IL Golden Arm winner in 2038 with an IL best 21 wins, including 8 complete games and 3 shutouts. Last year didn’t go quite as well. He was “only” 14-11 as the Thoroughbreds missed out on the postseason for the first time in 6 years. He’s still an excellent pitcher, and particularly valuable in terms of racking up innings, but it looks like that 2038 season is unlikely to be repeated.

The Top 5

5. SP Aaron Goater (HAR) – 24 – Hartford’s ace has been lauded as one of PEBA’s best pitchers for a couple of seasons now, but it’s been hard for him to get the recognition he deserves in hardware. He’s only been an All-Star once and hasn’t yet won Golden Arm. Certainly pitching for a team that has yet to make the playoffs hasn’t helped. He led the IL in pitcher WAR last year and was 2nd the year before. He also led all of PEBA in strikeouts each of the past two years, with his 285 last year being just one short of the IL record.

4. SP José Ojeda (REN) – 25 – From a performance and talent standpoint, there isn’t much between Goater and Ojeda, and you can certainly hear arguments from Harpoon fans that Goater deserves to be ranked higher, but Ojeda’s the one who has ultimately delivered. He’s the 3-time reigning SL Golden Arm winner, and has been key to getting the Zephyrs to the top of the Desert Hills and into the PEC last year.

3. 3B Vito van Wondel (FLA) – 30 – The last time we ran this list was 2031, which happens to be the year that van Wondel was the #1 pick of PEBA’s greatest draft. You could’ve taken any of the top 3 in any order and justified it. Since Florida had all 3 picks, it didn’t really matter. Van Wondel has won each of the past two IL Royal Rakers over his equally heralded teammates. Last year he moved across the diamond from first base to third, and he performed admirably with the glove. He already had a pair of All Leather awards for first base. He’s been an RBI machine, having 150+ each of the past two seasons and 162 in 2036. Those 3 seasons are all top 5 in PEBA history, with only Octávio Pexego and Bartolo Mora matching or exceeding him.

2. 2B Michael Roberts (MAD) – 27 – Roberts has no agreement to continue playing for Madison after this season, but there’s hardly a price that wouldn’t be worth paying for him. He does everything well, including steal bases, and it’s a testament to the quality of prospects the Malts gave up to get him that some feel Florida may have gotten fair value. In 2039, Roberts led the IL in hits, stolen bases, runs, and walks. Knopp and van Wondel have won the IL Royal Raker over Roberts, so a transition to the SL might be what he needs to finally win one himself.

1. CF Gordon Knopp (FLA) – 30 – Knopp enters his age 30 season just a few WAR behind Rob Raines for most in PEBA history among hitters. Barring some sort of season ending injury, he’ll take over the lead early in the year. Knopp hasn’t won Royal Raker in either of the past two seasons, but he did set a new career high with 126 RBI in 2039. It’s the only season in which he’s had over 100 RBI, with two 99 RBI seasons as his previous high. You could pay Knopp just about anything, but at $20M per season, he’s getting pennies on the dollar.

[Borealis]

Always a great read, Frank!! It becomes a much more fun read if we skip the top three - great diversity!!