Early Era 2B's

[Lions]

I'd like to start taking a look at some players in the pre-merge era to try to see where we may have forgotten significant contributors to PEBA history.

I have a pretty good idea of some of the top SS's of that era, so I figured I would start this review with second basemen. For some reason, great players who played 2B in that era don't stand out to me as 2B's. The names are familiar but their position, for whatever reason, didn't stick in my head without some prompting. This post is going to be a bit stream of consciousness so you can see my thought process.

First off, the pre-merge era is from 2007 to 2020, so we'll have 14 seasons to review. Now 14 seasons doesn't typically seem like long enough for a Hall of Fame career, and many of the players who debuted in that era that are worthy of the Hall of Fame came later in that time frame, so their careers went beyond the merge. That said, in all of PEBA history, we have had 88 pitchers and 125 batters with a career of at least 14 seasons (through 2039). I will take a look at key players who debuted in that era from a holistic career perspective.

Career Second Base WAR
We can start with a look at career WAR. This time frame is the exact career of the pre-merge 2B WAR leader:
Steve McDonald (2007) - 58.6 WAR
FWIW, McDonald is still 2nd on the 2B career WAR list.

Who else debuted in that era and had a high career WAR?
Rafael Suárez (2011) - 58.0 WAR
If you had asked me, I'd have said that Suárez had a higher career WAR than McDonald. He doesn't, but it's pretty close.

Chris Holmes (2010) - 48.1 WAR
I forgot entirely about Holmes, but he was a 3-time All-Star with Crystal Lake for his first 8 seasons. He played for 7 different teams after that.

Nathan Carter (2015) - 43.1 WAR
A bit of a late debut compared to what I was aiming for, but I'd feel remiss to leave him out. He was a bit of a nemesis while in London, so I'm a bit disgusted to now find out he spent his final year in Amsterdam.

Artie Marsh (2007) - 40.7 WAR
When I saw his name on the list, my first reaction was, "Yes! That guy was great! How'd I forget about him?"

León Valentín (2010) - 38.4 WAR
I have no recollection of him. Ok, that's not entirely true, but it's not far off. Funny how that works given his career production isn't too different from Marsh's.

Mario Tessier (2013) - 34.4 WAR
Tessier was in the Marsh category for me... that guy could hit!

These are the 7 players in the top 10 of career WAR for 2B's who debuted prior to the merge. The 3 other top 10 players are Pablo Ortíz (1), Michael Roberts (4), and Carlos Garza (6). All three are still active. Ortíz is a likely Hall of Famer, and at 65.8 WAR is a Royal Raker type season ahead of any other 2B in career WAR. Roberts... who knows what position he'll end up playing the most in his career. Either way, barring an injury induced catastrophe, he'll be in the Hall of Fame. Garza's an interesting case as his career is winding down. If you think he's a worthy Hall of Famer by reputation, I don't see how you ignore Suárez or McDonald.

[Lions]

In my PEBA Perspective thread, let's see where some of these guys ranked.

Weighted WAR Ink Scores:
11. 33 - Rafael Suárez (2011-2024)
22. 21 - Nathan Carter (2015-2026)
41. 12 - Steve McDonald (2007-2020)

WAR Bucket Scores:
24. 43 - Steve McDonald (2007-2020)
32. 30 - Rafael Suárez (2011-2024)

As the top 2 second basemen by WAR from the list above, it's not surprising that McDonald and Suárez show up on both lists. FWIW, so does Ortíz (18th and 9th, respectively).

[Lions]

From 2014 to 2020 (and 2029-2031), I published a list of PEBA's most valuable players*. This was supposed to capture trade value and wasn't particularly scientific, but it did give a sense of which players were among the league's best. It was limited to 50 players.

Here are the ranks from those for second basemen:

2014:
12. Joel Swedlove
16. Steve McDonald
19. Barry Murdock
25. Britt Martin
Top 50: Bud Hoffmann

2015:
12: Steve McDonald
17: Rafael Suárez
Top 50: Joel Swedlove, Britt Martin, Chris Holmes

2016:
5. Rafael Suárez
19. Steve McDonald
Top 50: Alfredo Vega

2017:
20. Alfredo Vega
Top 50: Steve McDonald, Rafael Suárez

2018:
Top 50: Rafael Suárez, Alfredo Vega

2019:
19: Nathan Carter

2020:
16: Nathan Carter

The big drop for Suárez was a down year in 2016 brought on by injury. He bounced back in 2017, but the risk was great enough and he was in his walk year heading into 2018 that it was hard to put him higher in terms of trade value. There was not question about the talent.

*I loved publishing these articles and lists... the conversation they generated was great fun and the purpose of them, to be able to look back on them 20 seasons later and see a perspective on the top players in the game was specifically geared towards these types of HoF discussions. Sadly... they took a TON of effort and I just burnt out on them. The publishing was fun, but the writing was a chore.

[Lions]

I'm going to now walk through PEBA history by taking a look at the WAR leaderboards by second basemen up to and including each season. The hope is that by doing this, some patterns will emerge of how perceptions of past 2B's might have evolved over time. I'll comment on a few players each year, but largely ignore any players who had very good years but didn't cause a multiyear impression.

I apologize for the formatting and length.

2007
WAR Leader:
Brett Hurst (KAL) - Hurst was an All-Star at 25 in PEBA's inaugural season and I would imaging the future looked very bright. He hit 26 home runs, scored over 100 times, and had 5.4 WAR.

Other Notables:

• Steve McDonald hit .299 with 33 SB's as a 20 year old. He was 5th in WAR among 2B's and second in the SL.
• Artie Marsh was 6th in WAR at 23 years old for the championship winning Hitmen. He was 5th on his team in offensive WAR.

2008
WAR Leader:
Steve McDonald (AUR) - He more than doubled his WAR to 6.5 as a 21 year old, hitting .338 with 212 hits. He scored an SL leading 131 runs.

Other Notables:

• Glen Ganey (GLO) - Posts 6.2 WAR and is an All-Star.
• Hurst exchanged some power for some on base, but was just about as good as the previous year.
• Marsh improved slightly, but would not have stood out more among his peers, finishing 8th in 2B WAR in 2008.
• 24 year odl Mark Richardson, who hit 24 home runs and was an All-Star and All-Leather winner in 2007 as a shortstop slides over to second base, hits 30 home runs, and repeats his All-Star/All-Leather combo.

2009
WAR Leader:
McDonald - A slight WAR improvement to 6.8 and his first All-Star game. I believe his lack of power is what put it off, but he's now getting that recognition.

Other Notables:

• Powell Clark (CL) - He was a 2007 All-Star and back again in 2009, but 2007 wasn't a special season for him. He's got nearly 600 hits through 3 seasons, having hit over 200 each of the past two years. He stole 64 bases and is the career SB leader at this point.
• Richardson hit 34 home runs and won his 3rd straight All-Star/All-Leather season for Florida. McDonald has the highest career WAR to date, but Richardson is the one who would likely have grabbed the most headlines. His 88 home runs are 23 more than his nearest 2B, which is Hurst.
• Hurst hits another 21 home runs.
• Marsh continues to put up consistently good but not great seasons.

2010
WAR Leader:
Kevin McNeal (FLA) - A 7.4 WAR season becomes the new high for second baseman as McNeal fully replaces Richardson, who is now in Aurora. McNeal hits a Richardson-like 32 home runs while having over 100 runs, RBI, and walks.

Other Notables:

• McDonald isn't far behind McNeal in WAR, hitting .328 with 96 BB's (2nd straight OBP over .420) and 48 SB's. He's an All-Star for the 2nd time.
• 23 year old George John (CON) has 210 hits and 45 SB's.
• At 28, Hurst has his 4th straight 5+WAR season, but he'll never again have over 3.0 WAR.
• Richardson has left Florida for Aurora, where he plays all of 10 games on the year. He will not spend the rest of his career in Aurora primarily as a shortstop, winning Royal Raker in 2011 after his missed season.
• Marsh's final year in NJ is his highest WAR at 4.0, but he has still never been an All-Star.
• Ganey is back with another good year after a poor one.

2011 - PEBA's 5th season
WAR Leader:
McDonald/Ganey - They tie at 5.7 WAR in what is a down year for 2B's.

Other Notables:

• The Bashing Beanpole, Joel Swedlove finds his stroke at 23 years old. He hits 32 HR's and is an All-Star. He has taken Hurst's job, who is moved to DH to accommodate.
• Rafael Suárez makes his debut for West Virginia, posting 4.6 WAR. He hits .326 and is an All-Star en route to IL Wunderkind honors.
• José González debuts at 31 after coming over from the LDBI. He plays for 3 different teams in his debut and posts 4.9 WAR combined. He will return to the LDBI after 2015.
• Marsh posts a steady 3.9 WAR
• Powell Clark is now in decline at age 29.

2012
WAR Leader:
Britt Martin (CST) - A 7.1 WAR makes Martin the 3rd 2B to break 7+. At 27 years old, he hits 34 HR's to tie Richardson's positional best. He took a step up in 2011 and this was a similar step up to get to this level.

Other Notables:

• Bud Hoffman (ARL) - After an All-Star season in 2010 with Yuma and in injury plagued 2011, Hoffman is back at it. He had 228 hits and a .358 average to lead the IL 2 years after his .351 led the SL.
• Chris Holmes (CL) - At 25, makes his first of 3 All-Star teams in even numbered seasons.
• McDonald has a down year due to niggling injuries, but still hits .316.
• Swedlove hits another 30 HR's.
• Marsh does Marsh things.

2013
WAR Leader:
Britt Martin - A 6.8 WAR year isn't quite 2012, but it's close. It's his last really good year and he doesn't add to his All-Star appearances.

Other Notables:

• Swedlove's 39 HR's and 118 RBI do get him an All-Star nod. It's his 3rd consecutive, and will be his last.
• McDonald is healthy again and back for his 3rd All-Star appearance. 4.8 WAR isn't as good as what he had previously done.
• Suárez and Marsh do Marsh things. It's interesting that after a great rookie campaign, Suárez has two years where he struggles to repeat that year.

2014
WAR Leader:
Suárez - This is what I remember him for. He hits .320 with 23 HR's as he finally has the season his talent suggests he can produce.

Other Notables:

• Holmes has a good year. Because it's an even numbered year.
• McDonald is 3rd among 2B's in WAR. His .399 OBP ends a 5 year .400+ OBP streak.
• Swedlove has a huge drop off. At 26, his swing is a mess and he never again hits over .260 for a season.
• Ganey has another good year for GLO and makes his 2nd and final All-Star game.
• Injuries keep Marsh to 1.9 WAR
• Mario Tessier (NJ) is an All-Star in his first full season.

2015
WAR Leader:
Suárez - 7.4 WAR and roughly the same numbers as last season. This is his 3rd All-Star game, and with 158 games played is one of the few years he didn't deal with injuries of some sort.

Other Notables:

• McDonald is 2nd on the WAR list again and back up to .417 OBP, earning his 4th All-Star game.
• 22 year old Nathan Carter debuts for London. His 3.8 WAR is quite low, but still 3rd among 2B's and he makes the All-Star team as a rookie.

2016
WAR Leader:
Holmes - Leading 2B's with 5.6 WAR, he's happy it's an even numbered year again.

Other Notables:

• McDonald - 2nd in WAR again for his position. Makes his 5th All-Star team at 29. Plays just 114 games.
• León Valentín, who was an All-Star in 2014, does it again.
• Tessier, who's power from 2014 has vanished, leads the IL with a .342 average.
• Marsh has a bounce-back year, drawing more walks again and posting a career best 4.3 WAR.

2017
WAR Leader:
Tessier - His 6.8 WAR is 5th among 2B to this point. His power is back and he earns his first All-Leather award.

Other Notables:

• Suárez had an injury filled 2016, but he's back to lead the IL in SLG and OPS. No All-Star game, though.
• At 30 years old, McDonald's injuries have caught up with him. He is moved to Omaha and combines to post 1.1 WAR on the year. He's basically done as a star at this point, but will play through 2020. At this point, his 55.4 career WAR are nearly 20 WAR ahead of any other second basemen.
• Carter has a solid year at 24, leading the IL with 106 runs scored. His first three seasons have seen WAR of 3.8, 3.9, and 3.9.

2018
WAR Leader:
Nathan Carter - He has his breakout season, posting 6.4 WAR with 204 hits, 21 home runs, and his second All-Star game.

Other Notables:

• Suárez again sees him play under 130 games, this time just 119, but he posts a 142 OPS+ while he's out there.
• Marsh, at 34, is back for his 3rd All-Star game. This time it's with Duluth.
• Tessier wins his second straight All-Leather award, but his average drops from .341 to .297 and he just doesn't have the power to make that anything more than a merely good season.

2019
WAR Leader:
Suárez is back atop the list with 5.8. He's left West Virginia for Duluth. He's managed to appear in 141 games, hit .322 and post a .411 OBP.

Other Notables:

• Carter is right behind Suárez in WAR, hitting for a bit more power and a bit less average. Unlike Suárez, it does get him an All-Star nod.
• Jim Klein's first full season sees him put up 3.5 WAR.
• John Foster is a 1st time All-Star at 26. He hits for modest power, draws some walks, but his average is low and his defense isn't anything special.

2020
WAR Leader:
Nathan Carter posts the greatest season we've seen from a second baseman, earning IL Royal Raker. 8.0 WAR is generated with a relentless offensive game and All-Leather defense. He hits .338 on the year with a .411 OBP, 25 HR's, and 109 RBI. His 207 hits and 116 runs score both lead the IL.

Other Notables:

• Klein has another strong season to be 2nd on the WAR list.
• Dave Crocker posts a career high 4.8 WAR. It's not one of his 3 All-Star seasons.
• Suárez is traded to New Jersey after an early part of the season. He posts another solid year.
• Steve McDonald retires after the season. Suárez has done enough that he's about 10 WAR behind McDonald on the 2B WAR list.

Observations:

• Richardson was the most famous player discussed here, but he really only spent 2 seasons as a second baseman.
• McDonald was a bit under-appreciated based on his WAR seasons to All-Star appearances. He was easily the class of the position until Suárez and Carter came along. There were challengers, but certainly no one who did it as consistently as he did.
• Many of these early players had short careers. Lots of players began declining around 30 years old, give or take a few. We don't see that as much anymore among the league's best players.
• Marsh didn't have the peak you'd want, maxing out at 4.3 WAR. He was an accumulator with 13 seasons and 2100+ hits, which is a fine career, but not really much more.
• I skipped over Leslie McDonald, who was a good 2B for Kentucky and then bounced around among other teams. He had some 3+ and 4+ WAR seasons that ranked him in the top 5 2B's in a given year, just not consistently.

[Lions]

The above is looking strictly at 2007-2020. The league obviously didn't end there, and it may make sense to extend that analysis at some point. Certainly if you want to evaluate the players that played in this era but also beyond it, you would need to do that.

Suárez played 4 more seasons. Carter played 6 more, although sadly none of them were anywhere close to the Royal Raker season he had in 2020. He was never again an All-Star.

[Evas]

Love this analysis.

FWIW, I think McDonald is very likely to be inducted soon. Hopefully in the 2039 class. He only needs 7 more votes than in 2038, assuming all 32 GM's vote.
Bingo did get a long look - being on the 6 first ballots. But he had some bad luck going up against all time greats and very big ballots. I think he is likely to find his way back on to the ballot and should make it eventually.
Holmes is a great example a guy who was probably overlooked. I made a note about him so I don't forget.
Carter, Swedlove, Tessier, Vega, Valentin, Martin, Murdock, and Marsh were all very good players, but I think a step (or two) below the above 4. Maybe they enter in to the HoF conversation later.

[Borealis]

I definitely want to examine an alternate 'Veterans-like' ballot that'll help that first decade or so of PEBA players...

[Apollos]

I definitely want to examine an alternate 'Veterans-like' ballot that'll help that first decade or so of PEBA players...

Nelson Anderson would also welcome this development