The Fab Four

[Thoroughbreds]

In the 2037 draft the Kentucky Thoroughbreds had 4 draft picks at the end of the first round of the PEBA amateur draft. They used all 4 picks to select starting pitchers, 3 of whom were in high school. The franchise heard some praise and some criticism with their selections. Some thought with the late picks it was a good gamble to try and take some player with a higher risk and high reward. Others thought that drafting 17 year old pitchers with 1st round picks was too much of a crapshoot and they were destined to be busts.

It is a year removed from that draft and I am going to track the development of these 4 pitchers and try to put a percentage on whether they will make show and where they may slot in.

Dave Sherman - Sherman was the first pitcher the taken by the Kentucky in the 2037 draft - he was selected 30th overall. Sherman, who hails from Lacombe Alberta, still ranks as the Thoroughbred's #2 prospect and the top of the fab four. In 2037, Sherman went 3-0 in rookie ball and was promptly moved up to A ball where he went 2-5 with a 4.14 ERA. That is where he started this season and it was a disaster. 1-7 with a 7+ ERA. Not a great sign for Sherman. Despite this set back Sherman throws hard, displays great control, has a 5 pitch repertoire and a very high work ethic.

Sherman's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 70 percent
Projected Role: Bottom end starter or middle reliever

Jae-Hoon Li - With the 33rd pick the Thoroughbreds selected Li. He has spent the entire last year with Fort Worth in single A and has fared pretty well. Over the 2 seasons he is 9-4 with a 3.60 ERA. At the same age (18) as Sherman he has been more successful - he doesn't throw as hard or have the stuff Sherman does, but he has good control, avoids the home runs and keeps the ball on the ground. The early success he is having at this level is promising.

Li's Chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 70 percent
Projected Role: Middle to bottom end starter

Cristobal Ayala - With the 37th pick Kentucky drafted Ayala and many thought he was going to be the best of the bunch, He is the only one of the 4 that pitched in college and he was definitely more polished than the rest. This season he is 3-2 in A ball with a 4.91 ERA. The fact that at 22 years old he and he is still in single A and getting out pitched by the 18 year old Li is a big concern to the organization. An even bigger concern is Ayala's control - he has walked 34 batters in 41 innings pitched this year. Ayala is having major difficulties with his mechanics and the coaches can't seem to fix it. He throws hard but if you can't find the strike zone it really doesn't matter.

Ayala's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 25 percent
Projected Role: Middle reliever

Bobby Jackson One pick after Ayala, Kentucky selected Jackson at #38. Jackson was definitely the most undeveloped of the 4, but the Thoroughbreds liked his raw talent and athleticism. He is by far the toughest to predict of the 4, although at this point he looks like a long shot to be a regular starter in PEBA. He is still only 18 years old and the talent is still there, but he has not developed much over the past year and he struggled last year in the IBC. He did strike out 72 batters in 78 innings, so the stuff is still there. He will remain there when their season starts in June.

Jackson's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 20 percent
Projected Role: #5 starter or middle reliever

[Thoroughbreds]

It is the end of the 2038 season - time to look at where these guys stand. (And also a couple of other pitching prospects)

Dave "Ox" Sherman
Sherman remains the team top prospect. After struggling mightily with Fort Wayne in A ball, Sherman was demoted to Barrow for the last half of the season. He went 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA and a WHIP of 1.03. He struck out 103 batters in 116 innings. He has 5 good pitches, a high work ethic and a strong arm so he will probably get another chance at single A next season. At only 19 years of age, Kentucky remains high on his chances of one day making the PEBA.

Sherman's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 75 percent
Projected Role: Middle to bottom end starter or middle reliever

Jae-Hoon Li
Li spent the entire season in single A. He went 8-10 with a 4.30 ERA and a WHIP of 1.56. At 19 years old he will probably start in single A again next season to see if he can improve on those numbers. He is currently the team's number 4 pitching prospect and 7th overall. He has great control but needs to improve on his stuff.

Li's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 60 percent
Projected Role: Bottom end starter or middle reliever

Cristobal Ayala
Things have gone South for Ayala and it is not looking good. Despite being able to throw almost 100 MPH, Ayala can't seem to harness his control and when he does it goes straight without any movement. To make matters worse he is 23 year's old and the organization thought he would be much farther ahead. He went 6-9 with a 5.45 ERA in single A - he may not even be able to hold his spot in the organization. Currently there are 15 pitchers ranked ahead of him on Kentucky's prospect list.
Jackso
Ayala's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: Less than 5 percent
Projected Role: Video coach

Bobby Jackson
Jackson is the team's #9 pitching prospect as he hasn't developed much yet. Jackson was injured most of the season and only pitched 24 innings all of them in rookie ball. The team will need to see some development this season.

Jackson's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 15 percent
Projected Role: #5 starter or middle reliever

Two additional prospects have been added to the roster this season. Carlos Fernandez and Juan Vega are a pair of 20 year olds that slot in right behind Jackson on Kentucky's list of pitching prospects.
Fernandez is a ground ball pitcher who doesn't give up any homers. He has great movement on his pitches but struggles with control. I would put his chances at making the PEBA at 20 percent, although if he can harness his control he could end up being very effective.
Vega is a hard thrower with good control, he has all the tools, but he was terrible in A ball last season. His odds of making the show is about 10 percent.

[Thoroughbreds]

It is time to check in on the 4 pitchers that Kentucky selected at the end of the first round of the 2037 draft - dubbed as the fab 4. Will they all make the PEBA? Or none? Despite them being later picks in the first round Kentucky was banking on one hopefully 2 of these guys 'hitting' so that they would be a part of the Thoroughbred organization. All 4 pitchers remain with the organization, none above double A.
In an interesting note, Kentucky's second round pick of the 2037 draft Sergej Van Den Abel , who is not a pitcher but a 1b/OF is a full-time starter on the Thoroughbreds and hitting .287. So even if none of the 1st round picks turn out at least the draft won't be a complete bust.

Dave "Ox' Sherman

Sherman remains the team's top prospect and is ranked #79 overall in the PEBA. He turned 20 year's old earlier this year and is playing in single A with the Fort Wayne Pioneers. Last season he was completely outclassed in A ball and had to be sent down. This season he hasn't been great but he has held his own going 6-10 with a 4.65 ERA. This past month was his best in the organization as he had a 3.86 ERA in 5 starts. The organization would love to see him start in double A next season, but he has some more to prove before he can make that jump. Sherman can throw hard and with control - he relies heavily on his fastball, but his slider, forkball and cutter are all getting better.

Sherman's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 80%
Projected Role: SP, somewhere in the 3-5 spot

Jae-Hoon Li

Li is Sherman's teammate in Fort Wayne and is Kentucky's #3 prospect behind Sherman and Bartolo Cervantes, who is a starter in AAA. Li also turned 20 this and has pitched well in single A - he has actually outperformed Sherman, going 9-12 with a 3.45 ERA in 25 starts. He actually has a very similar makeup to Sherman except he is more of a groundball pitcher and his overall stuff maybe just a fraction lower than Sherman's at this point. Yi has 5 wins in his last 7 starts, lowering his ERA from 4.04 to 3.45 during that stretch. He is trending toward double AA next season.

Sherman's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 70%
Projected Role: #5 starter or middle relief

Cristobal Ayala

This one is easy - the wheels have fallen off for Ayala and this pick was a complete miss for Kentucky. Early on it looked like Ayala may be the cream of the crop of the fab 4 but that didn't last long. Despite having good control in his college years, Ayala has lost the ability to hit the strike zone and he has lost some of his movement. Now he is just a hard thrower whose pitchers are straight and the usually got straight out of the strike zone. To make matters worse he is already 23 and he has lost his starting spot in Fort Wayne.

Ayala's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 1%
Projected role: batting practice pitcher

Bobby Jackson

Things are not looking good for Jackson. He was always thought to be a very long term project and the most 'raw' of the 4 pitchers selected, but he did have some decent upside. The problem is Jackson has not developed much at all in his time with the organization and he remain in rookie ball. He is pitching well there: 3-3 with a 2.30 ERA but he is going to need a big jump soon if he is to remain in the Thoroughbreds future plans. He has already tumbled down to 9th in their pitching prospect rankings, not a good sign at all.

Jackson's chances to be a regular in the PEBA: 10%
Project role: back end of the bullpen.