Draft Day Underscores Deep Problems
by Francis Ferry, NLN baseball beat writer
June 6, 2039 : Asheville, North Carolina – Normally this is a day of celebration – of sorts, where the clubs in the Planetary Extreme Baseball Alliance welcome into the fold their latest acquisitions – the Class of 2039. While teams such as Niihama, Tempe, and Duluth were stocking their coffers with extra picks, the Borealis were giving them away – arguably in bad decision making. And today we stand looking at an organization that might well be in trouble – with Jose Suarez’s job on the line – and in a shocker, Will Topham’s as well.
Let’s start with the draft – and it’ll be quick. The Why’s will be discussed downstream, but the wherefores are this: Aurora had just a third round pick (#96 overall) in the first five rounds, and with that they took a reliever – if you can believe that, Ron Lucas, a lefty out of Jakarta. Born in Montreal, his family emigrated to Jakarta from Quebec as his father, a med-tech engineer, took a job in Indonesia. Ron throws from a ¾ slot and tops out at 96 mph with a fastball that scouts describe as potentially devastating, and a slider that is ‘good enough’ – or so say the scouts, if he can harness his erratic movement. He also possesses something all lefty relievers crave – an excellent move to first.
Lucas pitched his first two years in high school without giving up a run – 36.2 IP, and over 23-innings his junior year he gave up just 1. That gave him crazy numbers his first three seasons: 1 R over 59 IP, 29 H, 16 BB and 51 K. This year he struggled, giving up 21 H in 23.1 IP, walking 7 and striking out just 11 – though he had a perfect 3.1 post-season stint this year. Perhaps it was the prospects of heading to college – he has a scholarship offer to head back to Canada and play for Hamilton, that caused some loss of focus. Who knows? Will he be in the fold when the Rookie season begins for Montserrat? That’s the germane question for Aurora. Our guess? He starts at closer, with the Borealis hoping that throwing him into the fire from the git go will capture his focus.
The rest of the draft class lacks pizzazz. Outfielders Domingo Lopez (6th round, Collegio San Carlos); Rudolf Tuk (10th round, Huntington Hills); Dermott Schmidt (14th round, Lycee Fenelon); and George Davis (19th round, Snow Canyon) are all unmemorable in their skill or careers – only Schmidt shows some prowess on the bases and in the field. Perhaps the most interesting tid bit here is that Davis is the Great-Great-Great-Great Grandson of the former-New York Giant infield great, and Hall of Famer of the same name. On the infield they picked up Chris James out of Barbe HS in the 7th round; Yi-xiao Lim (9th round, played on the Point Grey INT HS finalists); the palindromic Thomas Thomas (13th round from Rocky Mountain HS) – who at least has some speed and good baserunning skills, 1B Melvin Strumpf, who wasn’t drafted out of HS (Blanchard) and went to UAB, getting picked in the 17th round; and Antonio Santana, in the 18th round out of Katy HS. As with the outfield, not a looker in the bunch.
Aurora did draft a pair of greens – one with and one without an ‘E’ – C Michael Green (8th round out of Notre Dame) and 2B Dan Greene (15th round out of De La Salle). Michael Green was deemed the best defensive catcher in the draft by the Borealis scouts – and will begin the year backing up Vincente Carvajal at Mokule’ia, while the extra ‘E’ doesn’t slow Greene down, as his speed and baserunning are his best attributes.
We could go on about the pitchers taken in the later rounds (Jason Scott, Sebastiann van Pelt, Zach Fernandez and Ken Morrison) but that would be almost burying the lead here. Part of that tale may explain why Aurora selected 14 high schoolers out of their 16 picks, as a club with little talent in the minors and lacking high value picks, might as well flood the bottom and hope something settles at Montserrat.
The Why is simple – though the deeper Why as for the future of this franchise is much more complicated, and it begins with bad decision making – or at least questionable, as it relates to the turning of trades or scouting potential draft picks, the drawbacks of success vis-à-vis late picks in a round, and the desire to remain relevant, competitive, and satisfy the most-fickle fan base in the baseball world. Ray D. Enzé can talk your ear off on this subject – trust me, he’s talked mine off for hours on end. But let’s stick with the for now and see where that takes us; a for now that has Aurora with the 30th Minor League system in the PEBA and nary a member of the Top 100 Prospects.
Why did Aurora lack picks – this year, and in the recent past? Some historical perspective: When Golden Entertainment took over the Borealis upon the unexpected death of John Rodriguez, Sr, in 2011, with Golden CEO Michael Topham taking over and then installing his son – then-teen age tennis star turned baseball GM – Will Topham in charge, it was with the understanding that the draft was important; it was sacred ground – especially the 1st round, and if you look back historically, Aurora did not lose a 1st round pick for the first 10-years (2011-2020, or did not lose it without replacing it), until they dealt their 2021 #1 pick to Hartford for a pair of 2’s and a pair of 3’s – complementing their own. Prior to that, the depth of 1st round talent drafted was strong, including ‘Gypsy’ John Foster, ‘Stork’, ‘Sleepy’ Kuhn, Nick Giles, ‘Massacre’, Matt Ferrell, River Pope, Mike Hale, Gabe McIntryre, and Pedro Ferringo. Some of those years there were multiple 1’s and/or supplemental picks. Two of the years there were real duds – but that lineup of 1st round draftees was the core that won four PEC’s in five years. Remaining relevant in the 1st round was vital to the club’s success.
There may be more than meets the eye when examining the club’s evolution, as shifts in philosophy may take on many subtle layers. Come the end of the 2026 season, Aurora’s long-time scout, Joe Horn left the club – claiming he wanted more money, refusing to even discuss a deal. Horn’s last four seasons – coinciding with the signing of a four year deal, produced the draft classes of 2023-2026 that saw only Roberto Martinez, Ricardo Zamora, Jose Torres, Rob Imhoff and Jesus Solis out of four draft classes – 65 players in all, make it to Aurora – and all five of them were traded due to a real lack of impact. Martinez went on to have a moment in the sun with Toyama (and brought to the Borealis Henry Cluett). Two 1st round picks never made it out of the minors for Aurora: SP Brandon ‘Catfish’ Waters and 2B Guillermo Cavazos. The parting of ways between Horn and Aurora may have been more about performance than money.
Aurora instantly brought in Scout Mauro Sanchez, and he towed the company line as it was another 7-years before Aurora lacked a #1 pick – in 2029, when their first selection was in the 2nd round – David Simmons, who plays into today’s tale more than this factoid. Aurora had jettisoned their #1 and amongst others, Miguel Torres to San Antonio for Bob Burns. That stretch included ‘Fido’, ‘Fudd’, Jose Torres, Ricardo Zamora from the Horn Regime, and Miguel Torres, Armando Batista and ‘Litterbug’ on Sanchez’s Watch – a mixed bag of names that have contributed to the team’s continued success (Batista, Arundale, Castro), and some who moved on… and then on, never really meeting expectations (looking you straight in the eye, Roberto Martinez and Ricardo Zamora). Perhaps this perceived lack of production began to sow a seed of doubt in the ‘1st round philosophy’.
It would be another four years and the departure of Sanchez – beginning with 2030 and the selection of Raul Munoz, ‘Haggis’ and G-Rod – a stretch that included the drafting of ‘Machete’, before Aurora relinquished a #1 (and more) in 2034 – and that’s where this tale gets spicy and the fate of the team (and Head Scout Mauro Sanchez) drifted from the philosophy of their former-owner, and patriarch of Aurora’s Second Family. The 2031-2033 drafts produced: Connor Smith, Bill Smith, and Marcus Bell – all 1st round picks in 2031, and only Smith still with the club (wallowing away at Thornton); Dave Hoffman and Hector Gutierrez in 2032, with 2B David Hoffman being a dud at #18 and got scuttled to Yuma. That trade did net them some potential real blood, but only Dae-Hyun Pak and Mark Newton remain of a haul that was three-2nd rounders and a third; and 2033 produced Toshinobu Nakao, also wallowing away in the minors. With that, Sanchez was gone before the end of the 2033 season and Jose Suarez was hired.
Over the last six seasons (and now 7) Aurora has had a 1st round pick just once – in 2037, the ever-patient Hideki Nishikawa, who needs – deserves, to be on this roster. Sure, they’ve a slew of 2nd round, 3rd round folks who look like they may make contributions, but they don’t have the cache of a 1st round selection – and in those years they had multiple 2’s or 3’s. Not since 2034, when they had just a 3rd – they took ‘Werewolf’, so that’s something – and then a 5th (Huibert Kodde, a maybe?), has Aurora’s draft class prospects been so thin. And, sure – number one picks are never the end all – Aurora blew three in one draft alone (2031), and this club’s history is littered with contributions (even if they were for other clubs) from #2 and #3 round picks – Paul Carlisle, Bill Jones, Nick Heath, Kelsey Buck, and ‘Slug’, so perhaps there is hope when you look at recent draft acquisitions Yataro Sugano, ‘Vowels’ Ueda, Rupert Muijen, ‘Crane’, Toshimichi Ohayashi, Pedro Lujan, Dae-hyun Pak and Mark Newton.
That is The How and The Why of the Borealis future begining to look shaky. Has it been the advice of Suarez or Assistant GM Javier Padilla – who joined the club at the same time, to jettison picks? Or does it all lie on the shoulders of the one-time ‘Boy Wonder’ GM, who now is in his 33rd year on the job? Has Padilla pushed Topham to make the moves that contributed to the coffers being bare in lieu of competing? Aurora has done a fine job of walking that tight-rope for the entirty of the PEBA history – only seven of 32-years have they not been in the post-season – and they match that with at least that many appearances in the PEC and numerous more SL title matches – including last year’s 7-game loss to the Wind Dancers.
But to get there – a brighter outlook on the future, Aurora has to stop using their draft collateral as pawns to building a roster that continues to fall. Last year they sent this season’s 2nd and 4th round picks to Manchester for Pedro Macias and their 5th to Kalamazoo for Anthony MacDonald – which at the moment is having a Thank God sensation. Macias hit .312 for Aurora with 13 HR in 58 games – but they still lost to Toyama in the SL championship (Macias hit .303 with 3 HR in the post-season), and currently he’s hitting .258 with 6 HR and the fans are screaming. This spring they traded this year’s #1 to Kalamazoo for Brenden Clymo (more later; the Badgers selected C Bryan Jones, who is a promising prospect). The club lost their #1 last year signing Rocky Kowalski, who performed wonderfully last year, though lagged down the stretch, hit a buck-54 in the playoffs, and this year has started miserably - .193, despite 5 HR. Their ’35 and ’36 top picks were traded to Yuma as they traded down to reduce the effect of signing compensation-eligible free agents Ramon Gonzales (currently with Madison – traded for Rookie League reliever Sandy Calder) and Francisco Montoya (now in the WIL with Tacoma). Their deal with the Badgers this year was intended to have a similar effect – expecting Rory Soutar to sign with the Borealis, before his last-second inking of a deal with San Juan.
For those keeping score, Soutar is 8-2 with a 2.04 ERA. Brenden Clymo – for whom the wrath of Borealis nation has descended upon as no other, was intended to pair with Soutar and bring in some ‘fresh blood’ to complement the rotation quartet of Batista, Clark, Cluett, and Yi; that back-fired immensely – not only did they not get the former-Kentucky ace, they lost their #1 pick and Clymo has been ‘a dog’ - to edit the words on the fan boards for family-friendly reading. He is 3-5 with a 4.46 ERA – and in fairness he’s improved some, but he’s already allowed 14 HR – more than half as many as last year in four-games less of half last year’s starts. In 2038 he led the SL in WHIP, this year it is the highest of his career. The fans are furious and he’s frustrated – add in the injury to Brian Clark, who will miss another 7+ weeks, and suddenly things feel grimmer on The Front Range, and eyes turn towards the minor league system – a cringe-worthy experience.
So there you have it – a draft that was a dud; the continuation of drafts that lack contribution to a minor league talent pool that is at the bottom of the barrel; with thanks to the acquisitions of players that cost them those precious draft picks - #1’s lost to free agents who missed the mark (Montoya an over-priced back-up – though no fault of his own; Ramon Gonzales frequently hurt; Kowalski looking lost in year two) or traded away for mid-season help (Adrian Fuentes, with a capital DUD). This club has some how managed to remain relevant – today they are well within the playoff chase, but key players are into their 30’s – or staring 30 down as the clock ticks closer and closer. Aurora can not continue on this pace and expect to remain competitive in the SL – much less the Desert Hills. Tempe is marching hard, Reno seems to have found a groove, and based on this offseason the new ownership in Palm Springs may have the Codgers back on track in a matter of years. Even Yuma has to get lucky soon – right?
The Borealis have deep pockets – but you can only throw so much money on a dumpster fire and expect it to go out. Maybe not the most elegant phrase, but I hope you get the point. Without winning, Aurora will plummet to the depths of poor very quickly, and without talent – Home Grown Talent, Aurora will never reach the mountain top again. It’s a hard truth – but still, truth. We will no doubt look back on the 2039 draft class with unfond memories of 2021 when Aurora had 19 picks in a 15-round draft – and got very little out of it but a few relief innings; which brings us full circle to today’s draft. Maybe Ron Lucas will become a 3rd round cornerstone such as ‘Werewolf’ and Nick Heath, or like Josh Whiskin, Mark Newton, Ohayashi or Pedro Lujan may become. But not having the luxuary of picking from the top of the heap year in and year out is costing this team. Fans ask - and oddly enough, the front office should as well – would this club be better served today by having a couple less division crowns or wild card spots through better draft management?
That is something for everyone to ponder. Are you taking notes, Will Topham?
