Germán Hernández – The Keltner List

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Germán Hernández – The Keltner List

#1 Post by Lions »

There was never any doubt that Germán Hernández was going to be a PEBA star someday. Michigan isn’t the type of college you expect to recruit ballplayers from Mexico, but their efforts were well worth it. The young catcher posted an 1.000+ OPS during each of his 4 years playing for the Red Dawns. When he was drafted #28 in the 2018 draft by Reno, he was the all-time USCBA home run leader.

In 2019 he was already named Reno Minor League Player of the Year, and he was promoted quickly through the minor league ranks. By 2021 he was in the big leagues, pushing Tony Carmona and Jesús Negrete for playing time. Carmona would be moved to 1B/DH permanently by this point, as Hernández established himself. Reno, however, was not heading in the right direction as a franchise. The team’s playoff run was over and when it became apparent that 2022 was continuing the trend, Shin Seiki swooped in and acquired him.

It was with the Eva’s that he became a star, proclaiming that intention immediately by hitting 5 HR’s in his first week with his new club. He made the All-Star team 4 times in his 7 1/2 seasons there, averaged nearly 30 home runs per season, and it was there that his defense gradually improved enough for him to win back-to-back All-Leather awards in 2028 and 2029.

He left via free agency after winning his second ring, signing a four year deal with Hartford. He opted out of it immediately following the season and instead went to their rivals West Virginia on a 1-year deal. His contract demands having been rather steep, the Alleghenies snatched him up on a start of the season deal for one year. They’d go year-to-year for three seasons, despite agreeing to longer deals with opt-outs, and then he finished his career with an attempted comeback season in Arlington.

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?
No. Hernández never led the league in anything or came particularly close to a Royal Raker.

Was he the best player on his team?
Not really, no. When Hernández was first coming up with Reno, the team was in transition and he was still learning the PEBA level.

In Shin Seiki, there were regularly other players with more WAR than him, although he did lead the team in WAR in 2024. After that, the arrival of Andrés Hernández made it such that he wasn’t even the best Hernández on the team. To be fair, that’s a pretty high bar, but it’s still the case. Andrés would win a pair of Royal Rakers.

With Hartford and West Virginia, Germán was still good, but those teams had other players at a higher level.

Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?
You can certainly make the case that he was. There were other catchers at the time who had strong cases in different ways. Hernández was probably the most well rounded of them, and that’s reflected in his high career WAR total. For example, Tony Parker was an offensive force without the defensive chops. Ryan Lambert would draw walks but not hit for the same power.

Hernández was either the leader in WAR by a catcher or among the top few every season of his prime.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
From the time he arrived in Shin Seiki in 2022 to the time he left West Virginia after the 2033 season, Hernández was in the postseason every season. During most of those seasons, the Evas finished comfortably in first place and their wasn’t much of a pennant push. Interestingly, in during Hernández’s best season of 2024, the team finished in 2nd place and just 2 games back of Toyama. They were still well ahead of the second wild card team, though.

He did make a difference for Hartford, getting them over the top and into a wild card slot in 2030. Overall, the postseason teams Hernández played for won their division by double digit margins or finished as a comfortable wild card. It’s also worth pointing out that he was consistently good, posting a WAR over 4.0 and regularly above 5.0, for all of these teams until his final year in West Virginia when he was 36.

His postseason performances were more of a mixed bag. He appeared in 12 postseasons, with only a handful of players having more postseason experience. Over 103 games, his postseason OPS of .787 is just slightly below his regular season .804, which tracks reasonably well. His 23 home runs in the postseason are currently 4th all time. Any of the playoffs where he got more than a quick series he hit quite well. The shorter series were really where some of the performances more on the extremes, both good and bad, came out.

Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
Yes. He even made an All-Star team at the age of 35. While he was an expensive signing for an older player, everyone was confident that his West Virginia tenure was going to be a good fit for both the team and the player as he aged.

Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
No. He’s absolutely in the conversation for best eligible catcher, and that’s nothing to ignore.

Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
There are no catchers currently in the PEBA Hall of Fame. His most similar batters are Pepe Espinosa, Tony Parker, and Miguel Angel Gálvez. None of them have a similarity score over 900, suggesting some level of uniqueness for Hernández. Espinosa got regular votes but never came close to election. Parker just retired and Gálvez wasn’t even really considered.

Wilson Berry is 4th on the list, and he got a similar look as Espinosa did. Berry retired two years before Hernández debuted with Reno. Berry posted similar WAR numbers on a season-by-season basis but didn’t have the same level of consistency. Berry did make one more All-Star team but only won one All-Leather award. The short of it is that Hernández really was a better hitter and more consistent at that.

Do the players numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
Hernández doesn’t score particularly well in any of the HoF Career Metrics. He has a Black Ink score of 0, a Gray Ink score of 19, and a HoF Standards of 34.

In terms of notable offensive seasons, 2024 was his best year when he finished 3rd in the league with 36 home runs. He also finished 3rd with 6.1 WAR, which is not a category included in the Ink scores. 2024-2026 are the only years where he finished in the top 10 in any significant statistical category.

Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
For most of his career with Shin Seiki, he was playing in what was a fairly neutral park. With West Virginia, home runs were much harder to come by, so perhaps an effect for his three seasons there, suggesting his power numbers would be a slightly higher had he played somewhere else.

Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
From a strict WAR standpoint, the answer to this question is a clear “Yes”. Hernández’s 54.4 WAR is the highest among PEBA catchers, nearly 10 WAR more than Pepe Espinosa’s 44.8.

Hernández was a 5-time All-Star and 2-time All Leather award winner. That’s not a common combination among eligible catchers. Tony Parker was an 8-time All-Star as a catcher, but was generally considered poor defensively.

Another relevant comparison player is Jeff Cline. Cline has now fallen off the ballot, and while he has a lower career WAR, had a much higher peak. Cline was a 5-time All-Star, just like Hernández, but his top 3 seasons were significantly better than anything Hernández did in a single year. The difference, of course, is that Cline entered the league in 2007 as a 29 year old and was not just a star but a super star. He didn’t have the long career that Hernández had and so didn’t impact as many seasons.

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
There were no Royal Rakers for Hernández during his career. He was never all that close, although he had a few seasons where his position earned him a longer look than his raw offensive numbers would have otherwise.

How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?
Hernández was a 5-time All-Star, which is good but not typical Hall of Fame level. You could argue that he should’ve been an All-Star on one or two other occasions, notably 2025 and 2026.

Among catchers, Tony Parker had 8 consecutive elections and Wilson Berry was a 6 time All-Star. So Hernández wasn’t considered among his league’s best at his position as often as some of these other players.

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
I originally felt that Hernández was on the edge here. His best seasons, given the position he played, probably suggest that yes he could lead a team to the pennant. It would take a strong supporting cast, and that’s essentially what Shin Seiki saw in 2024.

However, I think that’s being a bit harsh given that he was a catcher. Perhaps WAR doesn’t quite capture the full effect of what it means to have a star at such a premium position.

What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
Nothing of note.

Can you tell the story of PEBA without mentioning him?
Here’s what GM Kevin Vail had to say about Hernández:
German was the lynch-pin. He was a leader. He was a natural with the glove, but also one of our biggest competitive advantages. His power as a LHB, in our park, was a natural fit. To get that level of production from a catcher was the key to having the offense that defined Eva baseball.
It’s hard to know how much to talk about each player on a dynastic team like the Evas, there are likely others you would talk about first and his former GM is surely going to sing his praises, but it’s also an era and a team that can’t be ignored.
Frank Esselink
Amsterdam Lions/Connecticut Nutmeggers GM: 2013-2022, 2031-present
Kalamazoo Badgers GM: 2028-2030
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