Ronald Lowry and the Keltner List

[Lions]

Ronald Lowry was a teenager struggling to prove himself at Purdue when the baseball world went into upheaval and the PEBA emerged as a result. In 40 games with the Astronauts in 2007, he hit .182 and posted a 44 OPS+. He took the offseason to figure out what he wanted out of baseball and through some combination of hard work and commitment, turned his career around to such an extent that we’re having this conversation now. His OPS+ in 2008 was 126 and in 2009 hit hit .364 with 9 home runs and a 159 OPS+.

The offensive improvement led to Lowry becoming a third round pick of the Connecticut Nutmeggers (now Amsterdam), the 61st overall pick of the 2009 draft and drafted as a third baseman. Having selected starter Francisco Robles in the 1st round, those two players alone make it the most productive draft in franchise history. Of course, Robles’ production came with other teams.

At the time of the draft, Lowry’s selection in the third round was met positively, with pundits citing his improvement and saying, “…he has plus skills at the hot corner” and that he had “Great size that should translate into above average power.” He ultimately would spend twice as much time at shortstop than third, and he was not good defensively, but the power played out. He would retire with 377 home runs, 5th in PEBA history at the time, and just 2 behind Luis Torres.

All of those home runs, save 6, came with Connecticut/Amsterdam. The final 6 came when he signed with the Kentucky Thoroughbreds as a 37 year old in 2025. The sight of Lowry in Kentucky was similar to seeing Joe Montana with the Chiefs. Having already been in decline for a couple of seasons, he needed one last final proof that age and retirement were inevitable.

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?
He was in the conversation at times. His career overlapped with Rob Raines who was generally regarded as the best player during that time. However, Lowry did win a pair of Royal Rakers in direct competition with Raines and Torres.

Was he the best player on his team?
Yes. Lowry was the face of the franchise in Connecticut and then in Amsterdam as he aged. He led the team in WAR 7 different seasons, including 5 in a row from 2013-17.

Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?
Yes. As a two time Royal Raker and perennial All-Star, Lowry was the best at his position. During his career, the player he was most often compared to was Chris Long, who has a strong Hall of Fame case of his own. The one caveat worth mentioning is that Lowry played SS for most of his career, but was not good defensively, particularly as he got into his 30’s.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Lowry joined a Connecticut franchise that had a history of failure and while he was tremendous for them, he was not able to turn the team around by himself. That said, the team built a competitive roster around him and from 2018 to 2022, the team made the postseason all 5 seasons.

He was a key player in 2018 and, of course, Royal Raker in 2019. 2020 saw him battling some injuries as he posted “only” a 125 OPS+ for the year. 2021 saw a bounce back, and in 2022 he was an All-Star for the final time in his career. The only season in which Lowry and finished within 10 games of 1st place but out of the postseason was 2023, when Lowry was 35 and in decline. An in his prime Lowry very well could have helped Amsterdam get over the hump and into the postseason, but he was no longer that player.

He really only had one great postseason, which was 2019 when he hit 5 home runs over 15 games and helped get the Nutmeggers to the Planetary Extreme Championship for the only time in franchise history.

Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
Yes. He played into his age 37 season, which was well after his prime, and that final year was the first year where he wasn’t a regular starter.

Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
This is kind of an interesting question as there are some pitchers who have a better resume than Lowry, but among eligible hitters he’s in the mix. Lowry is certainly not as good as active players like Gordon Knopp or Alejandro Luján, but he has the same number of Royal Rakers as Andrés Hernández and more All-Star selections. The aforementioned Chris Long has a higher career WAR as he played much longer, but he didn’t have the highs that Lowry had.

Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
While we’ve been comparing him with Long, Long doesn’t actually appear on his most similar batters list. They were just different types of hitters, with Lowry hitting for a lot more power but lower averages. Long’s got a 114 OPS+ while Lowry is at 138 OPS+.

Lowry’s most similar batters are 2B Chris Holmes, C Danny Burke, and 2B Rafael Suárez. None of them have similarity scores over 858, which indicates that they’re not all that similar and Lowry is somewhat unique. Neither Holmes or Burke were considered a potential HOFer, but Suárez has a strong case.

Do the players numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
It’s a bit surprising, but Lowry’s Black Ink score is 0, meaning he never lead the league in a major statistical category. He did lead the league in total bases twice and OPS once.

His Gray Ink of 92 is quite strong, though, indicating he was regularly in the top 10, and his HOF Standards is 42.

Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
Lowry spent his entire career in a poor hitters park and that certainly kept his home run numbers deflated somewhat.

Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
As is often the case, this is a bit of a question of how you want to evaluate career versus peak and how much you care about defense. Lowry’s career was long enough, but his case is primarily a case of a strong peak. His two Royal Rakers are two more than Chris Long, as are his 8 All-Star appearances. Long’s defense was much better (he won 3 All-Leather awards) and his career was longer.

Long was respected during his time, but I believe Lowry was the more famous of the two due to his peak.

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
Lowry won the Royal Raker twice and was actually a bit better in the 2015 than either of those years. His Royal Raker seasons are not among the best Royal Raker seasons in PEBA history, but they were still deserved.

How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?
Lowry was an 8 time All-Star, and most players who made that many All-Star appearances and have become eligible for the HoF have been elected. In fact, only 7 players in PEBA history have more All-Star appearances.

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
Certainly, as proven in 2019. He was the Royal Raker that year and led the Nutmeggers to the 2019 PEC.

What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
Nothing of note.

Can you tell the story of PEBA without mentioning him?
No. Lowry was the face of the franchise in Connecticut, leading the team to their first postseason run of 5 consecutive seasons and their only PEC appearance to date.

[Borealis]

These are always a great read! I especially like getting the IL perspective on IL guys. With my focus more on the SL, the insight is invaluable!