Francisco Robles - Keltner List

[Lions]

One of the more beloved pitchers of his era, Francisco "Yogi" Robles was originally a standout high school pitcher for Cy-Fair High School in Texas.  Originally born in Portland, OR, Robles went 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA as a 16-year old, earning the IF HS WC Outstanding Pitcher Award in 2007.  Two years later, the Connecticut Nutmeggers made him the 2nd overall pick of the 2009 draft after consensus #1 pick Bill Bradley went to Aurora.

Robles was pegged as a future star who would take some time to develop, but the Nutmeggers didn't want to wait.  Superstar closer Rafael Hernández who, at 25 years old, had 38 saves and a 1.27 ERA for the London Underground in 2009 was the team's target.  So in December of 2009, Robles was on his way to London.

It's worth taking a moment to contemplate just how disastrous this trade was for Connecticut.  Not only did Robles turn into the pitcher everyone expected him to be, but the price for Hernandez also included reliever Chris McKinney and a downgrade of draft picks.  McKinney was young and a useful bullpen piece for the Underground for a couple of years.  However, the real kicker was that Hernandez never pitched an inning for Connecticut.  Or, for that matter, any other team.  In spring training of 2010, Hernandez was diagnosed with a career ending torn labrum.

On the other hand, London watched Robles climb through the minors in 3 short seasons (including a no-hitter), giving him a cup of coffee in September of 2012 and handing him a rotation spot for good in 2013.

Despite an 18-10, All-Star season in 2014, the Underground finished in 6th place and Robles accounted for a quarter of the team's wins.  They decided he couldn't do it alone, so they shipped him off to Crystal Lake, where he spent the next 10 seasons.

After 2 down seasons at the end of his Sandgnat tenure, the team released him and he signed with Florida for 3 seasons before finally finishing his career with 3 seasons with the Claymores.

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

No.  Robles was a highly respected pitcher who went deep into games, but he never won a Golden Arm award.

Was he the best player on his team?

He was quite clearly the best player for the 2014 Underground... of course that was a pretty lousy team that featured a handful of young players who weren't quite ready yet.

With Crystal Lake, he was regularly one of the top two pitchers on the team, but again, that team was loaded with some great pitchers.  It's hard to call out Robles as clearly being better than Curt Turner, Alfredo Velázquez, and Manuel Corona.  That said, during his tenure with the team, Robles was always in the discussion, regularly making a formidable top end of the rotation with the other pitchers on the staff.

At 34, Robles actually had a bit of a resurgence with Florida after those down years in Crystal Lake, but again, he wasn't the best pitcher on the staff.

The Claymores also got good performance out of him from age 37-39, but he wasn't the same pitcher as in his younger days.

Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?

This is a very high bar to cross for a starting pitcher, and Robles did not quite cross it as evidenced by his lack of Golden Arm awards.

During his career, he was highly thought of at times.  For example, heading into the 2015 season when he had just been traded to Crystal Lake for a healthy package, he ranked 8th in terms of PEBA's Most Valuable Players, which placed him 4th among starting pitchers.  That's pretty high.

The following season he was 6th overall and 2nd amongst starters.  The problem, for this question, is that Markus Hancock was ranked ahead of him.  Robles would never again rank this highly, but he was regularly featured in the article series the rest of the decade.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Robles' time in London never resulted in a winning season.  He did have an indirect impact on London's PEBA championship, though.  Chris Long and Ángel Luján, who came over from Crystal Lake, were among the top players on that title winning squad.

The Sandgnats made the postseason 8 out of 10 seasons with Robles in the rotation.  Two of his three highest WAR seasons, 2017 and 2018, were not among them.  We don't have monthly splits for most PEBA historical seasons, so it's challenging to capture how well he pitched in the playoff push.  Some of the seasons were tight races and others not as much.  Robles had some really good postseasons for the Sandgnats and some rather mediocre ones.  In the end, his 3.63 postseason ERA was almost identical to his 3.62 regular sesason ERA for Crystal Lake.

He also made the postseason all 3 years with Florida and in 2029 with Scottish.  After winning the PEBA title with Crystal Lake in 2024, Robles helped Florida win it the following year.  He pitched extremely well all three postseasons with Florida, and was named the PEC MVP in 2025.

Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

Absolutely.  Robles had a resurgence with Florida at 34 years old and pitched regularly until his age 39 season.  He won at least 10 games in both of his final 2 seasons.

Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No.  Strong arguments can be made for pitchers with higher peaks than him.

Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

This is kind of a fascinating question as Robles isn't a particularly comparable player.  Kenny Ashley is the only pitcher with a similarity score higher than 900 against Robles.

A large part of this is the key value that Robles provided beyond quality pitching... he pitched A LOT.  In fact, he's the only PEBA pitcher with over 3,800 innings pitched.  Ashley ranks 3rd in career innings and is struggling to hang on as a 40-year old bullpen arm in Havanna.  He's about 250 innings behind Robles, who averaged 234 innings per 162 games.  Robles only has 4 more games started than Ashley as of this writing.

If you look at other similar players to Robles, it's an impressive list.  Carlos Rivera is second on the list, followed by Dean O'Monahan.  Rivera has a nominally higher WAR than Robles, which is a bit surprising as he wasn't nearly as famous.  O'Monahan is a strong candidate who has been exceeding Robles' vote totals to this point.

The next two players are Markus Hancock and Manuel Corona.  Robles has Hancock at #5, but Hancock has Robles at #2, which is a testament to how unique a player Hancock was.  Conversely, while Robles has Corona on his list, Corona doesn't have Robles in the top 10.  This suggests that Robles is a bit more unusual in terms of career numbers than Corona.  Corona, of course, had the better peak, winning back-to-back IL Golden Arm awards for Gloucester.

Do the players numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

We've already mentioned that Robles is the career leader in innings pitched.  His 3.37 ERA isn't particularly noteworthy, but all that pitching did get him 244 career wins, 2nd only to Hancock. He also ranks 3rd in career losses despite playing for a bunch of really good teams.  He would regularly get 24-28 decisions every year, something that many pitchers don't get.  All those inning also got him up to 4th on the career strikeout list, behind Hancock, Corona, and Rivera.

From a HOF standards perspective, his Black Ink is 11, which is quite low, but his Gray Ink is 121, which is very high.  He wasn't a regular league leader, but he was regularly among them.  His HOF Standards score is 47 which is behind the legends but isn't bad.  Randy Smith, elected in 2033, is at 48.

Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Not particularly.  Without going through the detailed math, it appears as though his home ballparks roughly averaged out to be about neutral.

Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

This really depends on how much you value peak versus longevity.  From a longevity standpoint, Robles tips the scale.  From a peak standpoint, pitchers like Gunnar MacGruder and the O'Monahan are ahead of him.

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Robles never won a Golden Arm award and wasn't really that close.  His highest WAR finish was 3rd in the IL in 2014, and Corona was the easy choice that year.  In the SL, it was Hancock, MacGruder, and Provost.

How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?

Robles was only an All-Star twice, which is actually a bit surprising for a pitcher of hist stature.  He did start the 2014 game for the IL, although he didn't pitch all that well.

His only other appearance was in 2022 with Crystal Lake.

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

His lack of a dominant peak suggests this question isn't quite so simple.  He was very good some years... he won 21 games in 2022 for example, but he didn't dominate the way you'd expect a guy who could carry a team would.

What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

Nothing of note.

Can you tell the story of PEBA without mentioning Robles?

The lack of a dominant peak suggests the answer to this question might be yes, he's an interesting but ultimately forgettable player.  However, I'm going to suggest the opposite.  His high draft pick status and the two significant trades he was a part of when London acquired him and then sent him off again had huge impacts on the franchises involved.  Connecticut struggled for years after trading him away.  London got a great pitcher that they then traded for two key cogs of their title.  Robles won his own pair of championships, having a significant role to play in them.

[Apollos]

Another great article, Frank. Thanks for doing these

As the guy who made one of the referenced moves for Robles, that being the deal which took him to CL in 2014 from London, I distinctly remember the stabilizing impact he had on our rotation for the next decade. In retrospect that was a deal that worked out well for both sides given how well Long played for the Underground. Nice to see deals like those. Oddly enough, the Underground and Gnats came together on another deal a few years later for a promising young SS (going the opposite direction) by the name of Juan Hernandez who is now back with the Underground to finish up his career (maybe?).

Regarding Robles’ HoF candidacy, and I’m admittedly biased based on the above, I think he’s one of those guys that gets in based on his longevity and consistency. Generally I tend to lean away from those types of players when voting but as you note in your article he’s a very unique figure in PEBA history (to this point) which makes him a more attractive option every year when those ballots arrive. I don’t consider him to be as good as several of his contemporaries which you identified in the article, but view him as potentially the charter member of our “hall of very good” wing.

[Borealis]

I forget if Frank mentions it - but he was also a sturdy guy, hardly missing a start - if at all, until he was 37, when he joined Scotland. 15-straight years of 30+ GS. That alone is awfully impressive. 10-years with the 'Gnats set up plenty of great Aurora-Crystal Lake battles with Robles v. 'Sawmill' and 'Slappy' and Lopez - then 'Train Arollin' and 'Tugboat'. He had my vote from the start.

Plus, he has a HoF nickname: 'Yogi'!!