2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

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Evas
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2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#1 Post by Evas »

The WM will be here before you know it. May as well start defrosting the hot stove now.

Who is looking to do what?

Who's going to blow it up and start over?

Who's going all in for 2030?
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#2 Post by Sandgnats »

Where will Steve Hott end up this off-season? Will Duluth offer him arbitration?
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#3 Post by Lions »

Whoever signs Steve Hott needs to ensure that he gets to play every position at least once.


Our offseason looks likes this:
1. Decline team option on Hernandez.
2. Sit back and watch everyone else sign the FA's
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#4 Post by Evas »

I've got a few guys I'm looking to move here before FA and a few guys who I don't need to be in a rush to move.

Guys I'm looking to move before FA:
  • RP Ruben Hernandez - Has been a dominant setup guy for me over the past 2 seasons. Has the endurance to be a starter and has been a very good one in the past. He won 18 games and posted a 5.3 WAR in 2026 and a solid 3.4 WAR in 2027 before being traded to me. Has a very reasonable 1 year $9M option. It would be a real shame to waste that option and let him hit Free Agency.
  • RP Carlos Rivas (AAA) - 2.5 star RP that will be on a near minimum contract in 2030. Not a star but can absolutely be a contributor at a low cost.
  • Takane Chikafuji (AAA) - Cheap. AAAA 1-2 WAR guy. Plus 1B, OK 2B. Good Eye and Power.
  • Ronnie McCormick (AAA) - Cheap. Will likely be a roster crunch victim. 2023 2nd rounder. My scout has him as a 5/6/4. Could be a useful RP. 3 options left. Needs a chance on a PEBA squad.
Guys I don't need to be in a rush to move:
  • RP Chris Puddifoot - Excellent young RP that I would prefer to move for someone better suited to pitch in my park.
  • RP Gilberto Gonzalez - Another excellent young RP that I would prefer to move for someone better suited to pitch in my park.
  • CF Robert Hawkins - 25 year old CF. Good CON, plus speed & solid in CF.
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#5 Post by Borealis »

The Borealis have reached that point where it's tear down and pray, or build enough to be competitive - Both the Bears and Codgers are young enough to be relevant for quite a while. With a pending loss in Market Size and a balance sheet deep in the red, being competitive will be a key to keep the fans coming to Northern Lights. There's a few young arms down the pipeline, but they're at least another year away - good thing seeing Nieves and Turner have another year (Turner has an opt-out after the 2030 season). 'Tugboat' looks like he may sign an extension, which will help on the pitching front. There seems to be no immediate offensive help on the farm - outside of 'Litterbug', who might get the call mid-2030.

So Aurora is Desperately Seeking inexpensive, competent players to just stay afloat, if nothing else. Given attractive offers, we could still consider trades of key parts that don't rock the boat on the above plan.

What does Aurora need? An infield - Britt wants to test free-agency, Dwyer wants a big payday or he'll leave, and Medrano wants too much for his 'a little better than meager' performance. Also in search of an outfielder who plays a quality CF, as Flores wants to test free-agency.

It's a dark time on The Front Range...
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#6 Post by Hitmen »

Canton should have an interesting off-season..

2029 Payroll = ~$129.8 million
2030 Payroll = ~$33.3 million

With almost $100 million dollar coming off the books in old stop gaps, bad contracts, and Ryan Lambert declining his option ;-D , we can start going after free agents that will hopefully be around Canton long enough to see the rebuild come to fruition. I turned New Jersey around by year 3 with a similar rebuild. With Canton I have even more financial flexibility due to some lucky timing of all the contracts coming off at once. I can attack free agency as well as the draft and waivers in the next season. It will be an exciting time as I look to reinvest all the money into pieces that will help us going forward.

Already I am focusing on redirecting funds to Scouting and Player Development, both completely underutilized last year before I could change it. Also will be nice to have a full draft budget when it is such a focus for me.

Already have my eye on a couple guys, with tons of holes to fill around the team. Will be fun to see who Canton can land this offseason.
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#7 Post by Arroyos »

I love it when successful clubs anticipate what Mike calls "a dark time on The Front Range." The Borealis wouldn't know darkness if it mugged them in daylight. With 8 consecutive first place finishes and only one--mark that: ONE!--finish as low as fourth place, Aurora's experience of darkness is limited to losing 3 games in a row. Down here in the Yuma desert, we got no Northern Lights to brighten our nights, no 4th place finishes to be shamed by, and nobody in our entire organization that Mike would even consider in his starting nine. Lighten up, Mike! A few seasons out of the limelight will help you appreciate the beautiful colors of the aurora.

As for Yuma's hot stove plans, we're singing the same old tune: give me your young, your talented, your rookie draft picks ... And maybe in 5 years we will better appreciate the Aurora's concerns of the coming "dark time."

But probably not.
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#8 Post by Fishermen »

Bulldozers wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:58 am I love it when successful clubs anticipate what Mike calls "a dark time on The Front Range." The Borealis wouldn't know darkness if it mugged them in daylight. With 8 consecutive first place finishes and only one--mark that: ONE!--finish as low as fourth place, Aurora's experience of darkness is limited to losing 3 games in a row. Down here in the Yuma desert, we got no Northern Lights to brighten our nights, no 4th place finishes to be shamed by, and nobody in our entire organization that Mike would even consider in his starting nine. Lighten up, Mike! A few seasons out of the limelight will help you appreciate the beautiful colors of the aurora.

As for Yuma's hot stove plans, we're singing the same old tune: give me your young, your talented, your rookie draft picks ... And maybe in 5 years we will better appreciate the Aurora's concerns of the coming "dark time."

But probably not.
It's the equivalent of "first world problem" in baseball. I saw a Yankee fan screaming in Discord for "not winning a title in this decade".
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#9 Post by Leones »

That's not a "first world problem", that's karma :wink:
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#10 Post by Lions »

It'll be interesting to see how Aurora retools. I don't see a full on rebuild happening anytime soon.
I will always be watching what Amsterdam does, and they have some interesting players right now.

There are a number of trade discussions happening here in Michigan, with just about anyone of value being discussed. We'll see where it all heads. I need to have some talent left to actually, you know, play the games this year.
Harpoon wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:35 pmI saw a Yankee fan screaming in Discord for "not winning a title in this decade".
I confess I'm a bit bummed about this myself. You can all rest assured that I've properly brainwashed my kids into being Yankee fans, too.
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#11 Post by Maulers »

Well, it's been a full year in-game since the Maulers were reanimated into a PEBA organization. I wanted to offer a status update, as well as some suggestions for how the league might deal with the introduction of new (or AI-run) teams in the future; after all, expansion is a critically important process for a healthy league!

Let's start with the sad truth: the Mauler organization that I took over was in complete shambles. 5 AI-run seasons had produced: an organization completely bereft of talent at every minor league level; a major league team that was full of high-priced, but non-PEBA players; and a poor coaching staff up and down the organization. Matters were made vastly worse by the disastrous tenure of the interim GM - who in his very short time in the PEBA made two trades (for Gunnar MacGruder and Jesus Lopez) that added nearly $80 million in payroll over two seasons, adding two completely washed PEBA players who were untradeable and have had the effect of torpedoing the organization's finances until at least next off-season. The Lopez trade at least added a good young player (Scott Carpenter) and a high (2nd round) draft pick. But the MacGruder trade was a complete disaster - a classic case of a new GM who doesn't know how to evaluate PEBA players, mistaking obviously AAAA players for useful PEBA guys. The overall effect of these trades is that I have no financial flexibility and just fielding a full PEBA roster is going to be an immense challenge. And this is to say nothing of how I am going to manage to fill out 5 full minor league rosters.

I have by necessity thrown nearly all of my resources into acquiring amateur talent, both through the draft and through international amateur free agency. I have made progress there, for sure. And I have been diligent in dumpster diving, making frequent use of the waiver wire, minor league contracts for marginal PEBA players, and participating in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

But make no mistake: the Maulers are going to be ghastly for the foreseeable future. I simply have no ability to improve the PEBA team: I have no money, no high-level minor league talent to break in, no established PEBA talent that could be exchanged for younger, PEBA-ready talent. The one thing that I have - a small, but growing tranche of very young talent - I simply cannot in good conscience dangle in trade talks.

Now, I'm thrilled to be back in the PEBA again, even happier to be with the Maulers again, and am just absolutely thrilled with the leadership of the group! I don't intend to go anywhere and I intend to see this thing through. And so these are not criticisms, at all; but rather they are suggestions for things to think about for future potential expansions of the league. Because I worry about the introduction of teams that will be totally non-competitive for potentially a long, long time.

Indeed, not only am I concerned about competitive balance; I also can't help but wonder how many GM's would stick with a situation like the Maulers present. I am basically the perfect GM for this organization: I have the sole meaningful history with the team, I developed all of the lore surrounding it, and I love this organization with a passion that moves well beyond reasonable. I will stick with it. But I can't imagine anyone else would.

At the root of the issue, I think, is that the Maulers were, for all intents and purposes, an expansion team that was not treated as an expansion team ordinarily would be. The seasons of AI-control were actually seasons of deep neglect and, to the extent that the AI is making decisions, actually worse than neglect: they saw the creation of an expensive team disinterested in player development that was designed to dominate a much, much lower lever of competition but which is wholly noncompetitive in the PEBA. Part of the issue is almost certainly that the other re-animated team (the Statesmen) were in vastly better position to compete in the PEBA and that undoubtedly made it tougher to see just how rotten the Maulers had become.

So my modest recommendations for any new (or AI-run) teams in the future would be first, and most important, a meaningful expansion draft in which both current PEBA players and current players in the PEBA minor leagues are made available for redistribution. And, second, I would recommend that all new teams receive at least a top-5 drafting slot in the coming amateur draft. Otherwise, I fear that a repeat of the Mauler expansion/reanimation would be a bad thing for the PEBA: I'm concerned that it would hurt competitive balance and, much worse than that, introduce further instability in the ownership ranks as very few people would be willing to stick with such a daunting road back to PEBA relevance.
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#12 Post by Hitmen »

I agree Jeff that it must have been a tough situation to pick up. I was thoroughly annoyed by some of prior managements moves when I took over Canton, and I didn’t even have the added difficultly of having to deal with an AI running the team. My old New Jersey team seems to be running its way to championships much better than I did. All in all, not the same situation but I feel your pain.

Like you, I would have enjoyed the situation and rebuild. Have fun with it, make drastic changes, dumpster diving can be fun during rebuild years. Making less important guys useful future trade chips is always rewarding.

I agree though, as a whole there are some things that can be learned with your experience. Is it worth reviving these teams? Is it better just to make a new team and expansion draft and let these older teams fall away into the ether? A fresh start I think is most ideal, and maybe a simpler fix that would accomplish the similar if not better result. That way you don’t have to deal with the financial mistakes and contract burdens implemented by the teams prior regime.
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#13 Post by Borealis »

Thanks Jeff for your commentary, as well as your desire to get the Maulers back on their feet.

I appreciate your candor regarding the process. It's interesting that it was the Maulers that struggled - with their recent history in the WIL, I think we figured they'd be the more successful team. I do think that you bring up a very good point when you refer to a minor league system bereft of talent - the WIL teams were set up with no minor leagues and just a Reserve Roster. If any future expansion of the PEBA were to be to bring back former teams from 'exile', maybe now is the time to re-evaluate the structure of the WIL.

Expansion/Returning teams to the PEBA could happen under many different mechanisms, and in creating the plan to bring Manchester and Charleston to the fold, we looked to create a process that would be fair to all. There certainly are lessons to be learned.
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#14 Post by Maulers »

Thanks, Mike and Mike!

One of the things that is interesting about the reanimating of former PEBA teams is the question of the relative competition levels between the WIL and PEBA. I can definitely see how success in the WIL against other former PEBA teams would seem meaningful; but in my experience it is not. If you look at the top players on the 2028 WIL champion Maulers and then track their performances in 2029 PEBA (both with the Maulers and with other teams) there is a pretty steep drop off. Eyeballing both for the Maulers and the Statesmen, it seems like there is a rough correspondence between WIL and GBB (our AAA). So I would say that future reanimating of former PEBA teams is viable; but it would need to be complemented by some form of expansion draft in order to maintain competitive balance. I could also see an opportunity for newly promoted teams to be able to waive one or two particularly onerous contracts made by the AI without penalty.
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Re: 2029-2030 Hotstove Thread

#15 Post by Alleghenies »

Maulers wrote: Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:23 pm Thanks, Mike and Mike!

One of the things that is interesting about the reanimating of former PEBA teams is the question of the relative competition levels between the WIL and PEBA. I can definitely see how success in the WIL against other former PEBA teams would seem meaningful; but in my experience it is not. If you look at the top players on the 2028 WIL champion Maulers and then track their performances in 2029 PEBA (both with the Maulers and with other teams) there is a pretty steep drop off. Eyeballing both for the Maulers and the Statesmen, it seems like there is a rough correspondence between WIL and GBB (our AAA). So I would say that future reanimating of former PEBA teams is viable; but it would need to be complemented by some form of expansion draft in order to maintain competitive balance. I could also see an opportunity for newly promoted teams to be able to waive one or two particularly onerous contracts made by the AI without penalty.
They did get to waive a contract without penalty.
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