PEBA Winter Meetings (Part 2 of 3)

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#1 Post by **Coqui** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:56 am

By Sir John Stirling

Trade #10:Crystal Lake-Reno

A swap of minor league relievers saw Reno getting William “Soda” Patterson in exchange for Joe Baker. It wasn’t the most exciting trade of all time.

Analysis: Soda is a 28 year old journeyman reliever. He could help Reno this year. A lefty, his services will always be in demand. The question is whether he can translate minor league success into major league success. To find out, Reno parted with highly rated middle relief prospect Joe Baker. Baker is a bit old for his level thus far but could really turn into quite a… middle reliever.

Edge: Reno. Middle relievers are a dime a dozen. Might as well take a chance on the one that is closer to the majors.

Trade #11: Crystal Lake-Yuma

Yuma continued adding middle relief with this trade. Markus Shepherd and Santiago Carmona went to Yuma in exchange for low level prospects Andy Hood and Brad Howell.

Analysis: Shepherd is young (26) and cheap (under $3 million a year), Carmona is old and has yet to do much other pitch well at AAA. Andy Hood is nothing really but Brad Howell, well Brad Howell is something special. Howell brings speed, good contact ability and very little plate discipline. It’s an interesting trade but this impartial observer cannot figure out why a rebuilding team like Yuma would trade a prospect for a reliever. This seems like a deadline trade, only in reverse.

Edge: Crystal Lake. Color me confused on this one.

Trade #12: Canton-Reno

Super-sub Geoffrey Porter hits his third team in three seasons, moving from Canton to Reno. Coming the other way is Geoff Green, who on his way into town may see Cantonians celebrating the departure of Luis Navarro.

Analysis: Reno was over the barrel, desperately needing a catching option and Canton was waiting with Luis Navarro. Navarro is rated (and paid) highly and performs poorly. Loathed in Canton, he will get another shot to achieve his potential in Reno. Porter can play any position and play it well. The times he does get on base, he is a legitimate threat to steal. Geoff Green will arrive in Canton to compete with David Koch for the second base position. Whoever wins it is sure to boot the ball all about the infield.

Edge: Canton. Unloading Navarro’s contract is a step toward solvency for the Longshoremen and the Green/Porter swap also leans in their favor.

Trade #13: Duluth-Arlington

Salary dump. The mashing Andres Lopez goes to Arlington in exchange for Larry Hoskins and AAA pitcher Minoru Kudo. A fourth round pick will make the flight east with Lopez, no doubt to keep him warm on that tarmac in Minnesota.

Analysis: Lopez would add a lot to any outfield, and Arlington is no exception. Lopez, however, is not cheap. $13 million will bring you a nice VORP of 43.7, but it also costs you $13 million. Replacing Jesus Suarez may be worth just that much. Especially given Arlington only missed the playoffs by three games last year. Hoskins didn’t really contribute that much but should help Duluth at least seem palatable to their fans. Kudo could really turn into something special and is by no means just a throw in.

Edge: Arlington. A great salary dump for Duluth, actually it’s beyond great. Salary dumping just doesn’t compare to acquiring an elite outfielder that could put you in the playoffs.

Trade #14: Duluth-Palm Springs

The train out of Duluth, a beautiful town in Minnesota, stops long enough to snag closer Juan Santos and a couple of draft picks (5th and 10th round). Coming back into Duluth are the usual prospects, this time in the form of outfielders Brandon Collins and Loren Georges. They bring with them a second rounder and a sense of hope.

Analysis: Palm Springs won 93 games last year and also managed to finish 19 games out of first place in the Desert Hills division. The bullpen has been the focus of a lot of the effort to push the Codgers over the top and Santos certainly will help there. He’s not ridiculously good but he isn’t at all bad and he isn’t very expensive ($4 million). He also isn’t 19 games. Collins and Georges both project well and extra picks never hurt a rebuilding team.

Edge: More money leaves Duluth as more young talent comes in. Santos doesn’t push PS over the top. Duluth wins here.

Trade #15: San Antonio-Tempe

This one is a total head-scratcher. Tempe trades Bill Taylor and Bob Keller (A-Ball catcher) for Gary Fisher and Terry Thornton. Rumor abounded in the winter meetings about Taylor, and offers involving Antonio Rivera and Geoffrey Porter seemed destined to lead somewhere. Tempe then seemed to hesitate before, at the last minute, making this trade.

Analysis: In Bill Taylor San Antonio got a highly rated, young, well performing, cheap (league minimum) starting pitcher at the price of a “prospect” (Thornton) who had an OBP under .300 at the age of 22 at A ball last year. Tempe also took on the $2 million salary of Gary Fisher, who was “just a pawn” according to Calzones management. As if that weren’t bad enough, Tempe traded away Bob Keller, a catching prospect that scouts seem to love. This was easily the biggest fleecing of the winter meetings, and quite probably in PEBA history.

Edge: San Antonio.

Trade #16: Reno-West Virginia

The Winter Meetings ended with the trade of a player with a fractured skull for one of the most perplexing outfielders in PEBA. Outfielder Jeff Patterson accompanied a third round pick to the coal country while SP Ralph Dean and CF Jack Campbell head for the biggest little city in the world.

Analysis: $15 million contract? Check. Power, speed and a great eye? Check. Fractured skull? Also check. Jeff Patterson is the real deal when healthy. The thing is, Patterson’s head split open last year. That would be a bit of a health issue for West Virginia’s new slugger. Ralph Dean and Jack Campbell offset all but five million dollars of the salary for West Virginia and fill holes for Reno. If Campbell hits like he did in 2007 (VORP of 32.2), Reno is ok on this deal. If he hits like he did in 2008 (VORP of -11.2), Reno got shafted in a big way.

Edge: West Virginia, assuming Humpty Dumpty’s head is ok. This trade could be franchise defining.

Still to come in this series are the final grades for each team, as well as a breakdown of the Yoshino Miyata trade sequence.

#2 Post by **John** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 2:32 pm

The homepage version of the article is now up. So what does everyone think of Brad's analysis so far? Spot on, or just spotty?

Tyler · #3 Post by **Tyler** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 3:11 pm

I love these.

Bill · #4 Post by **Bill** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:39 pm

Who cares about accuracy, everyone loves trade analysis. Truthfully though, I think Brad does a good job at pointing out what each side's goals were, and then throws in his opinion of who got closer to getting there. The Miyata two-parter should be worth some good writing.

Matt · #5 Post by **Matt** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:47 pm

The Miyata wasn't really intended to be a two parter.

I did the Miyata deal, expecting to keep Miyata. I was already having discussions with NJ about Gonzalez. My original goal was to have both of them and push my fan interest up to near the max of 100.

But several things happened. The Miyata deal had pushed my salary up about 4 mil, not heartbreaking, but I still want a payroll as low as possible.

I was prepared to go with Brock Brett as my starting catcher, but he was going to go through growing pains this year. Getting Gonzalez, Brett won't play as often and hopefully won't be overwhelmed.

Taking on Gonzalez contract meant adding a contract beyond this year, not something I neccesarily wanted. But, Gonzalez was VERY POPULAR as compared to Miyata, who is only POPULAR, thus a boost to my fan interest just a bit, but every bit helps when your trying to completely screw over your loyal fanbase by charging outrageous prices for a crappy product. Might help if we give free shots of tequila with every beer. And hire trigger happy Blackwater guards to keep order in the stands.

I know the original version of the deal had the three prospects going to NJ. When he decided he wanted Miyata, we tossed in Moncrief for Pena to even out the salaries a little, but overall I end up saving that 4 mil I gave up in the original Miyata deal. In the end, I got more of a boost to fan interest at less price. In the end, NJ probably improved his team more if Moncrief pitches decently. I asked him to throw in the pitcher Bandelow to complete the deal. I like Bandelows stats, even though he was old for his level. Taking a flyer on a possible late bloomer. We'll see. My scouts hate him in 2008 version, they say 5* can't miss in version 2009.

Long term, I didn't see Davis or Knapp being much. My scouts had soured on both and they were off my radar as far as being real prospects. Out of the 3 prospects I gave up, the only real loss to my system was Kohler, he looks like he could turn into a middling ballplayer someday. Of course, my scouts could be all wrong, NJ's could be all right, and I just got hosed big time.

Duane · #6 Post by **Duane** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:56 pm

Might help if we give free shots of tequila with every beer.

hmmmm .... maybe .... I ... ... ... should start visiting ... San Antone

Matt · #7 Post by **Matt** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:00 pm

hmmmm .... maybe .... I ... ... ... should start visiting ... San Antone

Which is exactly why we are hiring the Blackwater guards. They already have no bid contracts to guard the local girls soccer fields.

Denny · #8 Post by **Denny** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:16 pm

Calzones wrote:
hmmmm .... maybe .... I ... ... ... should start visiting ... San Antone
Which is exactly why we are hiring the Blackwater guards. They already have no bid contracts to guard the local girls soccer fields.

Poor Bill! The dark side of celebrity: your weaknesses become too well known.

#9 Post by **Hitmen** » Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:03 am

Yeah, I wasn't originally even thinking Miyata. Once I saw SA had him, I knew I had a need at CF, even with some offers to FAs out there. I knew SA was in salary dump mode, and while they certainly had room to keep him, I thought getting Gonzo back as well as a pitcher like Pena while saving $4 million this year might look good. Miyata was more expensive than I would have liked, but I figured I could take a 1 year flier on him. Moncrief isn't knocking my scouts over, and his numbers aren't knocking me over, but with Jones out all year and sending Pena in this deal, I needed someone who was ML ready, hopefully he can be a decent 5th starter. Pena only had one more year and I wasn't resigning him anyways. Gonzo was hard to part with but I have a couple of decent defensive replacements and hopefully he will return to form a bit back in San Antonio. The prospects are basically to fill out my minor leagues. If they hit, great, if they miss, no loss. I had enough popularity and interest already to make up the difference between Gonzo and Miyata.

If Moncrief wins 8-10 games and Miyata plays defense and gets on base, then I think I'm good. If they both are busts, oh well, hopefully someone else steps up on this team.

I don't have my game open right now - please tell me that Miyata's nickname is "Mazda"

#10 Post by **John** » Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:45 am

Hitmen wrote:I don't have my game open right now - please tell me that Miyata's nickname is "Mazda"

For 5 CP spent at our next Winter Meetings, this can become a reality!