2019-21-22-25-26 Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
- Bill
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
Woohoo. I spent a couple seasons dreading this post. Nice to be on the plus side again.
- Morris Ragland
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
They're baaaack...
These have not been processed since 2022, largely because Matt's scoring system departed with him. I've put together a formula of my own to adhere to the spirit of the rules set out in the constitution.
A refresher:
Because no current PEBA team received a Market Size adjustment in 2022, all teams are eligible for this adjustment as well.
Adjustments will be determined following the playoffs, and will be announced live at this years Winter Meetings. A full league-wide ranking will later be posted in this forum.
These have not been processed since 2022, largely because Matt's scoring system departed with him. I've put together a formula of my own to adhere to the spirit of the rules set out in the constitution.
A refresher:
- A team’s performance has the potential to affect its fan loyalty and market size. Since expectations are different in different markets, each team will be reviewed based on the expectations for their market. Teams with the largest markets and largest budgets will have the greatest expectations. Teams in smaller markets with smaller budgets will have lesser expectations. Teams will be awarded or penalized based on how they fared against those expectations.
- The team that exceeds expectations by the greatest amount will receive a market size increase. The next 4 teams who most exceeded expectations will see a fan loyalty increase.
- The team that performs the worst against expectations will see a market size decrease. The next 4 teams who most faltered against expectations will see a fan loyalty decrease.
- Expectations will be based on market size, team budget, playoff appearances in the last ten seasons, and team record over the last 5 seasons. Points are awarded/subtracted based on team record, place in division, playoff appearance, and winning a championship.
- A minimum of 2 years must pass between fan loyalty changes, and a minimum of 3 years must pass between market size changes. Winning a PEBA championship makes a team exempt from market size/fan loyalty drops for the next 3 years.
Because no current PEBA team received a Market Size adjustment in 2022, all teams are eligible for this adjustment as well.
Adjustments will be determined following the playoffs, and will be announced live at this years Winter Meetings. A full league-wide ranking will later be posted in this forum.
Morris Ragland
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- Morris Ragland
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
Here's what one half of the equation looks like. These are the season expectations of various PEBA fan bases in 2025. (It occurs to me that this might be a fun thing to look at heading into spring training next season. We could even see how the fan base expectations change over time.)
So what are we looking at here? Using a spreadsheet and maths, each team is assigned an expectation score, which you can read like you would OPS+ for a player (methodology is not dissimilar); 100 is average, numbers above 100 are good, and numbers below 100 are not good.
Calculating season performance will generate a similar score. The season expectation score is subtracted from the performance score to see how well a team performed relative to expectations. A score of zero would indicate that the team met its fans' expectations. A positive score will mean that fan expectations were exceeded, and a negative score will indicate that the team under-performed in the eyes of its fans.
Team
Amsterdam - 109
Arlington - 119
Aurora - 149
Bakersfield - 133
Canton - 61
Crystal Lake - 130
Duluth - 99
Edinburgh - 83
Fargo - 79
Florida - 143
Hartford - 85
Havana - 93
Kalamazoo - 77
Kentucky - 108
London - 105
Neo-Tokyo - 65
New Orleans - 67
Okinawa - 96
Palm Springs - 90
Reno - 92
San Antonio - 72
San Juan - 73
Shin Seiki - 155
Toyama - 106
West Virginia - 107
Yuma - 105
So what are we looking at here? Using a spreadsheet and maths, each team is assigned an expectation score, which you can read like you would OPS+ for a player (methodology is not dissimilar); 100 is average, numbers above 100 are good, and numbers below 100 are not good.
Calculating season performance will generate a similar score. The season expectation score is subtracted from the performance score to see how well a team performed relative to expectations. A score of zero would indicate that the team met its fans' expectations. A positive score will mean that fan expectations were exceeded, and a negative score will indicate that the team under-performed in the eyes of its fans.
Team
Amsterdam - 109
Arlington - 119
Aurora - 149
Bakersfield - 133
Canton - 61
Crystal Lake - 130
Duluth - 99
Edinburgh - 83
Fargo - 79
Florida - 143
Hartford - 85
Havana - 93
Kalamazoo - 77
Kentucky - 108
London - 105
Neo-Tokyo - 65
New Orleans - 67
Okinawa - 96
Palm Springs - 90
Reno - 92
San Antonio - 72
San Juan - 73
Shin Seiki - 155
Toyama - 106
West Virginia - 107
Yuma - 105
Morris Ragland
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- Arroyos
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
So, a score of 100 is good? How does Yuma finish last and earn a score of 105?
Whose water you drinking?
Whose water you drinking?
Bob Mayberry
Yuma Arroyos
joined 1 April 2010
Yuma Arroyos
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- Morris Ragland
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
Keep in mind that these were the fan expectations heading into the 2025 season. Actual performance scores have not yet been generated.Bulldozers wrote:So, a score of 100 is good? How does Yuma finish last and earn a score of 105?
Whose water you drinking?
Morris Ragland
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
Are we back to that Yuma water?Bulldozers wrote:So, a score of 100 is good? How does Yuma finish last and earn a score of 105?
Whose water you drinking?
RJ Ermola
Vice President and General Manager of Baseball Operations
Crystal Lake Sandgnats
*2024 PEBA Champions*
Vice President and General Manager of Baseball Operations
Crystal Lake Sandgnats
*2024 PEBA Champions*
- Borealis
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
Have we ever left...? I think not...Sandgnats wrote:Are we back to that Yuma water?Bulldozers wrote:So, a score of 100 is good? How does Yuma finish last and earn a score of 105?
Whose water you drinking?
Here... Have a bottle...
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis
2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
Hey Mike! Should I watch out for the water at Northern Lights Park when I got to watch game 6? (lol)Borealis wrote:Have we ever left...? I think not...Sandgnats wrote:Are we back to that Yuma water?Bulldozers wrote:So, a score of 100 is good? How does Yuma finish last and earn a score of 105?
Whose water you drinking?
Here... Have a bottle...
RJ Ermola
Vice President and General Manager of Baseball Operations
Crystal Lake Sandgnats
*2024 PEBA Champions*
Vice President and General Manager of Baseball Operations
Crystal Lake Sandgnats
*2024 PEBA Champions*
- Morris Ragland
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
The final standings for 2025.
While the performance and expectation scores are rounded, the final score is taken to two decimal points to break a tie.
While the performance and expectation scores are rounded, the final score is taken to two decimal points to break a tie.
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Morris Ragland
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
Okay, nifty numbers, but what does it mean? If Yuma is a -50 something, what does that convert to? Do I owe everyone in the league 50 gallons of water?Commish wrote:The final standings for 2025.
While the performance and expectation scores are rounded, the final score is taken to two decimal points to break a tie.
Bob Mayberry
Yuma Arroyos
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- Duane
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
just great .... 6.66
Really?
Really?
Duane
all but one season .... PEBA
Even though we fell short against Duluth in 2026 ... and SS in 2027 and 2029
IL still RULES!!!!!
all but one season .... PEBA
Even though we fell short against Duluth in 2026 ... and SS in 2027 and 2029
IL still RULES!!!!!
- Sandgnats
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
Does Yuma even have 50 gallons of water?
RJ Ermola
Vice President and General Manager of Baseball Operations
Crystal Lake Sandgnats
*2024 PEBA Champions*
Vice President and General Manager of Baseball Operations
Crystal Lake Sandgnats
*2024 PEBA Champions*
- Borealis
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
I saw at least 50 cases at the ballpark on our last visit... the plates were guzzling it like it was water - or is that like it was vodka? I get confused about that sometimes...Sandgnats wrote:Does Yuma even have 50 gallons of water?
Michael Topham, President Golden Entertainment & President-CEO of the Aurora Borealis
2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 PEBA Champions
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
Borealis wrote:I saw at least 50 cases at the ballpark on our last visit... the plates were guzzling it like it was water - or is that like it was vodka? I get confused about that sometimes...Sandgnats wrote:Does Yuma even have 50 gallons of water?
RJ Ermola
Vice President and General Manager of Baseball Operations
Crystal Lake Sandgnats
*2024 PEBA Champions*
Vice President and General Manager of Baseball Operations
Crystal Lake Sandgnats
*2024 PEBA Champions*
- Wind Dancers
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Re: Performance Based Market/Fan Loyalty Changes (PEBA)
Woooo!
Definitely won't be low expectations this season.
Definitely won't be low expectations this season.
Dylan Krupilis
GM - Toyama Wind Dancers
Web Admin/Tech Guru
1x PEBA Champion (2038)
3x Sovereign League Champion (2034, 2037, 2038)
1x GM of the Year (2034)
GM - Toyama Wind Dancers
Web Admin/Tech Guru
1x PEBA Champion (2038)
3x Sovereign League Champion (2034, 2037, 2038)
1x GM of the Year (2034)