Take the Money and Run

[Tyler]

Take the Money and Run
by Steve Bender, American Baseball Perspective

Does your favorite PEBA team need an upgrade for 2009? Maybe that last starter to fill out the rotation – or that power outfield bat to slide into the middle of the order? Then pull up a chair and your depth chart as we take a look at PEBA’s upcoming free agent class.

Starters

Premium Pick: Carlos Cervantes (11-12, 3.88 ERA) – The former Statesmen will be taking his diplomacy skills to the free agent market for the first time, and at age 27, figures to have the upper hand in the negotiations. Expect the market for Cervantes to be fierce – the FA starter pickings are slim, and this #2 could draw ace money.

Bargain Bin: Anthony Cox (12-10, 4.14 ERA) – There’s no such thing as bad publicity, right? Cox’s aborted no-no made him a national name, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 and saw a small drop-off from his ’07 numbers. If you want quality for cheap, write a letter to your GM and ask him to get Cox’s agent Boof Bonser on the phone.

Relievers

Premium Pick: Mel Kennedy (34 SV, 1.82 ERA) – You get what you pay for, and in Kennedy’s case, that’s a lock-down, game-over closer. 53 Ks, 5 BBs, 54.1 innings. If Kennedy leaves Aurora, look for him to join one of the top-5 PEBA teams in payroll. No-one else can afford him – consider that he pulled down $9.4 million in his walk year.

Bargain Bin: Terry Farmer (2 SV, 2.85 ERA) – If the thought of your team forking over $10 million+ for a reliever makes you sick to your stomach, check out Farmer. His two years in Palm Springs were polar opposites (5.07 ERA/2.85 ERA) and luck may have been mostly responsible (.318 BABIP/.229 BABIP). But if you’re willing to gamble, these factors will drive down Farmer’s price and you may land a premium reliever for under $2 million.

Catchers

Premium Pick: Rob Wright (.304-5-82) – Wright is clearly the cream of the crop behind the plate this offseason. The Coal Sox would love the extend him, but Wright knows who he is – a premium bat at a premium position who plays premium defense. He’ll make $15 million plus, easy.

Bargain Bin: Rex Groves (.262-7-21) – Not so much a “bargain bin” choice as a “complete unknown,” Groves’ contract demands are a mystery to most of the league. After spending most of the season in Mexico after finding no takers last offseason, Groves finished up the season with Crystal Lake. If PEBA teams have changed their minds about him, Groves will rocket back to the top of the league payroll. If not, Groves has indicated he has no qualms about returning to Mexico.

First Base

Premium Pick: Alberto Benitez (.320-11-85) – Benitez could slide right into the heart of the lineup of any team in PEBA. He may lack the home-run power found in most three and four hitters (14 career home runs), but his power to the alleys is the best in PEBA (115 career extra-base hits). If anything could put a dent in his price, it’s his defense. West Virginia moved used him as a designated hitter at the end of the year, and that may be where he’ll have to stay.

Bargain Bin: Narahiko Nakamura (.235-3-18) – The international star only spent the last two months of the season in PEBA with Aurora and didn’t exactly make a flawless transition. He has the skill set to be a superstar though, and at 31, he’s in his prime. Expect the teams that lose out on Benitez to flock to Nakamura, who is primed to sign a lucrative multi-year deal.

Second Base

Premium Pick: Juan Garcia (.281-3-34) – The pickings aren’t slim at second base, they’re almost non-existent. Garcia has the prowess to play the entire infield, and may get signed as a shortstop. The important fact to remember about the Puerto Rican is that he’s 37. If your team needs a quick fix, he’s your guy. If you’re trying to lock down the position through free agency, run away.

Bargain Bin: Marcos Sotelo (.258-2-31) – I told you there was no selection here. Sotelo is a shortstop, and likely to be signed as such. But for under $2 million, he doesn’t have much leverage to be picky about where he plays.

Third Base

Premium Pick: Dominic Gagne (.279-27-91) – Having been dealt the past two years at the deadline, Gagne will be looking for some stability. He’ll find it. He’s a superstar and 29 – that means mega-deal. He’s another possible DH, though, as his defense has been described by his former manager Sergio Manetti as “not just suspect – guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Bargain Bin: Jeffery Fleming (.233-5-29) – A regular at third in ’07, Fleming spent ’08 as New Jersey’s utility infielder. A team looking to gamble would do well to choose Fleming – with regular at-bats, expect him to provide acceptable offense and All-Leather defense. Worst case scenario, you’ve got yourself a high-quality super-sub.

Shortstop

Premium Pick: Miguel Soto (.278-14-59) – You know the drill. Young (26) + star (44.8 VORP) = cash (upwards of $16 million). Look for Soto to look for a long-term contract, and the money to justify it. He’s worth it though, as this slick-fielding telegenic infielder will put fans in the seats, and runs across the plate.

Bargain Bin: Hector Castillo (.296-11-37) – You know the story behind Castillo. How will the final chapter end? He certainly won’t be demanding $25 million/year again – that didn’t work. But would a team be justified in putting down $20 million for six or seven years? Yes. Will any team do it? If last year is any indication, no.

Left Field

Premium Pick: Mark Frazier (.286-22-83) – Have I mentioned how jaw-droppingly awesome Crystal Lake was this year yet? Well, they were. Frazier was on a one-year contract with CL after finding no other takers last offseason. Another young gun (28), Frazier is worth an investment.

Bargain Bin: Cris Palmeiro (.280-2-20) – Cris spent most of last season rotting on the New Jersey bench. He deserves a chance to be an every day player, and has the tools to be a .280-15-75 guy. He knows what he’s doing with the glove, too. He might sign for as little as $5 million, and that’s certainly a bargain.

Center Field

Premium Pick: Charles McGuire (.282-6-71) – Quick, take a guess. How many players do you think are free agents this year who could reasonably be described as center fielders? Ready? Three. That’s right, three. If your team needs one, don’t get one in this market. All of these guys are going to be radically over-priced. McGuire has reportedly been asking for $10 million/year. Don’t do it.

Bargain Bin: Bob Jefferson (.254-2-53) – The third player is Kenny Parker, by the way. Jefferson can win an All-Leather at any outfield position, and steal some bases while he’s at it. Expect him to be over-priced as well.

Right Field

Premium Pick: Vicente Bernal (.353-27-87) – Ollie Morris, you may shortly be the second highest-paid player in PEBA. Bernal should run away with the IL MVP award, and might pick up his second All-Leather while he’s at it. Drool over that age (26) and VORP (84.4). A franchise player like this enters the free agent market once a decade. His courting should be the most exciting event of the off-season.

Bargain Bin: Bryan Dorney (.259-7-34) – Don’t want to break the bank on Bernal? Reasonable. You might want to take a look at the former Yuma outfielder. He’s a lock to sign for less than a million, and he just might surprise you.

[John]

Man, I love coming home to awesome articles like this. And since everything was hyperlinked already, I had time to add a number of player pictures along with some captions. Thank you Tyler!

[Tyler]

UPDATE:

Mel Kennedy has signed an extension with Aurora for one year with a mutual option for a second. Kennedy will make $9.75 mil in 2009.

[John]

UPDATE:

Mel Kennedy has signed an extension with Aurora for one year with a mutual option for a second. Kennedy will make $9.75 mil in 2009.

So I'm curious: what do you think of this extension? Am I overpaying for a player that's only going to be throwing 55-75 innings? While many fans still put a lot of emphasis on it, the common conventional wisdom amongst baseball statheads is that the role of "closer" is overvalued. I tend to agree with that philosophy, and yet when push came to shove I broke down and showed my closer the money. I had reasons - he's popular, I didn't want to have to break in 3 inexperienced relievers all at once - but it's still a lot of coin.

So what do you think: is this wise, or is this overpaying?

[Tyler]

A quick and dirty cursory study says that Kennedy is pulling down about his market value.

I took all PEBA relievers who pitched in the majors this season and then filtered them this way:

• players with at least 30 relief appearances
  ERA must be less than 3.00
  K/9 must be 7.00 or greater
  K/BB of 6 or greater

These are all designed to pull up relievers with Kennedy's stellar numbers.

This left five pitchers, shown with 2008 salary info:

• Antonio Delgado - $2.2 (via arbitration)
  Mel Kennedy - $9.4
  Dan Mosley - $6.8
  Merlin Peters - $5.4
  Angel Chacon - $8.5

Mosely is the "worst" of these pitchers, and after that it's a toss-up for spots 1-4. Delgado doesn't really count, as he has never been in the market. If you factor in Kennedy's popularity, Aurora may have simply "overpaid" by about $2 million in order to ensure some veteran bullpen depth - and talk about depth.

Overpaid? Slightly. Worth it in context? Yeah, I'd say so.

By the way, Peters signed an extension for a decrease to a salary of $4 million for 2009. What a steal!

[John]

A quick and dirty cursory study says that Kennedy is pulling down about his market value.

I took all PEBA relievers who pitched in the majors this season and then filtered them this way:

• players with at least 30 relief appearances
  ERA must be less than 3.00
  K/9 must be 7.00 or greater
  K/BB of 6 or greater

These are all designed to pull up relievers with Kennedy's stellar numbers.

This left five pitchers, shown with 2008 salary info:

• Antonio Delgado - $2.2 (via arbitration)
  Mel Kennedy - $9.4
  Dan Mosley - $6.8
  Merlin Peters - $5.4
  Angel Chacon - $8.5

Mosely is the "worst" of these pitchers, and after that it's a toss-up for spots 1-4. Delgado doesn't really count, as he has never been in the market. If you factor in Kennedy's popularity, Aurora may have simply "overpaid" by about $2 million in order to ensure some veteran bullpen depth - and talk about depth.

Overpaid? Slightly. Worth it in context? Yeah, I'd say so.

By the way, Peters signed an extension for a decrease to a salary of $4 million for 2009. What a steal!

Very interesting on a number of levels. I'm instantly surprised to see Dan Mosley on that list. I've gotten used to thinking of him as the "other" Mosley during his time in New Jersey, with Hitmen closer Cedric Mosley stealing the spotlight. Clearly Dan's a lot more deserving of attention that I thought.

I'm also blown away by what a stud Delgado is. That dude threw 111.1 innings in '07, then came back and was actually better in '08. Talk about a rubber arm! I'll be very curious to see what he fetches in his second year of arbitration.

For my money, Merlin Peters is the best reliever in PEBA. He's also the one most in need of a new agent. I could say that about a lot of the players in the Crystal Lake organization, come to think about it.

Chacon's contract was my model for Kennedy. The only difference was the shorter duration; Kennedy was pushing me for that 3rd year, but with a bunch of pending free agents and arbitration cases the next couple years I didn't want to give in on that. The compromise probably cost me in terms of salary - I presume Kennedy would have signed for less had I capitulated on the 3rd year - but I'll take that in exchange for the financial flexibility.

I guess we'll have a better idea of whether Chacon and Kennedy are overpaid when we see what the market bears for the top relievers about to hit free agency. Andrew Sepkiechler (gesundheit!) and Don Nichols may not have stat lines quite as gaudy, but they've shown themselves to be capable closers. If they end up signing for half what Chacon and Kennedy are making, those are going to be great signings and you're going to have to wonder if those top closers are at least a bit overpaid. If they're commanding closer to $8M then I think the Chacon and Kennedy contracts look more reasonable.

[Duane]

Are you sure the example list is complete??? or the stat choices made were reasonable?

players with at least 30 relief appearances
ERA must be less than 3.00
K/9 must be 7.00 or greater
K/BB of 6 or greater

Tetsui Kono 71 games, 101.1 innings, 87 hits, 2 homers, 35 walks, 105 k 2.13 era, 229 BAA ... 9 walks were intentional ... $1,380,000

this is just one missing example

[Duane]

in general I think 1 - 3 mil for a MR is about all we should pay ... closers maybe 6 mil ... unless you are the Yankees and money is no object

[Tyler]

This list certainly leaves out many stud relievers, but I wasn't intending to include all stud relievers - just the true elite of the elite.

[John]

in general I think 1 - 3 mil for a MR is about all we should pay ... closers maybe 6 mil ... unless you are the Yankees and money is no object

Forbes agrees with your opinion. And you know, despite the fact that I just shelled out near-Mariano Rivera/Billy Wagner cash for Kennedy, I can't really argue too strongly against the overvaluation of closers myself.

If we were actually playing out our games and the morale system wasn't in place, I would utilize Kennedy in the highest risk situations. Maybe that would be a closing op; maybe it would be in the 7th inning as we're facing the heart of the order. Of course that would never fly in real life. Guys get paid by the number of saves they rack up and you better believe they'd have something to say about not being put into the position to pad that all-important stat. It wouldn't work in OOTP either, as the morale system dictates that players get used in a certain way lest they get irritable (and in Kennedy's case, that was is as a traditional 9th inning closer).

On the other hand, there are some compelling reasons to shell out for Kennedy - and these apply to all teams and players as well. Obviously he's a fabulous reliever, so that's something right there. Popularity is another factor. Never underestimate the importance of boosting fan morale by bringing in a popular player... or vice versa, as would have been the case if Kennedy walked.

Perhaps the biggest consideration, though, is the global PEBA economy. Free agents are aware of how much cash is lying around and they adjust their demands upwards if there's a lot. What that means is that being too frugal and hording cash is actually a bad thing - bad for you and bad for everyone else as well because it means those free agents are just going to get pricier and pricier. I've really come to understand this as I've done the testing on the new league settings. Of course I'm a capital offender in this regard. It's high time I start disbursing some of my resources, and Mr. Kennedy just happened to end up the beneficiary of my first handout.