Daaaaa Bears Blog

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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#31 Post by Ghosts »

The Bears have signed former Aurora and Amsterdam ace Arturo 'Massacre' Jimenez to a huge contract at an annual value of $19M per season. The main reason for the move is that last year, the Bears had a 2-1 series lead on Crystal Lake in the Wild Card round but the absence of a true ace allowed the Gnats to get away. You can't be a real contender without at least 1 ace. The price was heavy but owner David Novak believes that he has paid his way to the club's legitimacy.


Even after the deal, the Bears payroll sits at just $89M, so it is likely that more deals are coming...
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#32 Post by Borealis »

Yeah... Not looking forward to squaring off against our old pal 'Massacre'... I am surprised he signed so early - I know we threw some coin his way...
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#33 Post by kiersteadmo »

I think he has a chance to have a winning record this year, plus maybe drop his era a bit
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#34 Post by Ghosts »

Borealis wrote:Yeah... Not looking forward to squaring off against our old pal 'Massacre'... I am surprised he signed so early - I know we threw some coin his way...
You don't even want to know what he said about your offer....

He's still angry about being sent to Europe last year and is ready to come back to Aurora in another uni.
Warriors wrote:I think he has a chance to have a winning record this year, plus maybe drop his era a bit
Hope so on the winning record. We definitely think so on the ERA. He's coming to a big park and to a team with last season's highest defensive efficiency.
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#35 Post by Borealis »

I'd love to hear it - seeing he had no response to our offer... we had expected him to hold out for more, the greedy bastard - that's why he got traded in the first place...

Do you think they can code, 'shunned by team, return to rival in free agency to seek revenge'?
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#36 Post by Sandgnats »

Borealis wrote:I'd love to hear it - seeing he had no response to our offer... we had expected him to hold out for more, the greedy bastard - that's why he got traded in the first place...

Do you think they can code, 'shunned by team, return to rival in free agency to seek revenge'?
Plus those 10 day simulations. Have to make your best offer or else....
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#37 Post by Ghosts »

The Bears will be starting a short 4 part mini-series of writing designed to re-invigorate our fan base about the future of Bears baseball. It is going to be much needed with the upcoming fan interest hit for dealing the face of our franchise. This series will do a deep dive into the next 25 men up in terms of their current potential. Eligibility will be any player with less than 1 year of ML service time that is currently in the Bears system or expected to debut in the system this year. Today, we will start with the starting pitchers and their catching battery mates.

SP Jose Garcia (A) - Drafted 14th Overall 2025
A college award winner and National Champ with the Trojans, Garcia did exactly as expected in his first year. He moved down hitters in SS-A and had some moderate success after a promotion to Single-A Chula Vista to end the year. While his strikeout rate dipped from 10.1 to 7.5 per 9/IP when jumping from SS-A to A, his BABIP also skyrocketed 120 points to .350. As a result, we're expecting significantly better numbers than the 4.02 ERA and 1.53 WHIP his 7 starts in A ball came with. Garcia continues to hold true ace potential but is a few years away from making an impact at the ML level. In an ideal world, Garcia would cruise through A-ball this year and have a few successful starts in AA to end his 2026 campaign. We're probably looking at 2029 or 2030 for Garcia to begin making a meaningful impact at the PEBA-level, but we are very excited about his future.

SP Fred Womack (AAA) - Acquired from Kentucky via Trade in 2025
Womack was absolutely dominant in 9 AA starts last year after being acquired. So much so that when the Bears found themselves in a pinch and needed a starter in the last week of the season, Womack got the call to the majors and earned a win for the Bears. He's likely headed to winter ball to work on his control and will need to show a little more polish in AAA this year before coming back up to the big leagues for good. It's likely that he will be a regular in the Bears rotation beginning in 2027. He's not quite an ace, but has shown consistent improvement and outperformance throughout his career so we're hoping he can push that ceiling a little bit higher. As a former undrafted free agent out of Rutgers, Womack is already an amazing success story that shows just how important hard work coupled with a high baseball IQ can be.

SP Lance Harris (AAA) - Acquired from Kentucky via Trade in 2025
He had spent the last year and a half pitching out of the bullpen before we acquired him, but the move back into the rotation was seamless. His 1.14 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 9 starts earned him the promotion to AAA. Much like his former Kentucky farmhand teammate Womack, we expect that Harris will eventually be a regular in the rotation, though he's not quite top of the rotation material. Again like Womack, he'll probably be a regular in the Bears rotation beginning in 2027. With his strong work ethic and great leadership ability, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the former 2nd round pick could continue to improve and become a little better than the back of the rotation arm he's currently projecting out as.

SP Erik Watson (AAA) - Drafted 5th Round in 2021
Watson will likely head to winter ball to work on his control this offseason. He's a finesse lefty that doesn't overpower people so really needs to stop walking people if he's going to have a bigger impact at the PEBA level. His 3.9 walks per 9 IP last year simply isn't good enough for a ground ball pitcher who allows a lot of contact. On the flipside, if he can get a better handle on his pitches, he profiles really nicely as a back of the rotation arm who will pitch to contact and not allow a lot of homers. His 2025 season was nowhere near as bad as his 4.72 ERA tends to indicate as his FIP was exactly a full run lower at 3.72 for the year. If winter ball has a good impact and he starts 2026 strong, he could be the first call to the minors when the club is in need of some starts. It's worth noting that he is only 23 and has had a fairly quick rise through the minors after being drafted out of high school. He made his AAA debut at age 21.

SP Bart Belcham (AA) - International Signing for $100k in 2022
He was viewed as the top pitching prospect by the old regime but has struggled with injuries over the past year. We're not holding out a ton of hope for Belcham as a top of the rotation regular that we once viewed him as, but are hoping that he can get healthy and reclaim his prospect status. He does have a few things working in his favor, namely his great work ethic and intelligence. Additionally, he's soft throwing crafty lefty, so the recent shoulder problems should have less of an impact than if he was a power pitcher who relied on pure stuff to get the job done. He's going to be back in AA next year with strict limits on pitches and innings. Despite the injuries delaying his development, he's just turned 20 and has produced in a meaningful way in AA when healthy. Plenty of time for him to recover.

C Andrew Baker (AAA) - Signed Minor League Contract 2021
Baker will return to AAA for a third consecutive season where we're expecting to see some statistical improvement to go along with perceived improvement in skills from our scouting department. The prior regime did him a disservice by having him skip AA but we think a positive season in AAA this year could springboard him to a competition for the backup catcher competition in 2027. With one of our best young players at the catcher position, there's not a huge need for big prospects here and it does seem to be a weakness in higher levels of the farm.

C Rivelino Prado (SS-A) - Discovered in Venezuela 2022
Prado will make his debut in SS-A Cold Bay in 2026 after hanging out at the International Complex for a few years. He is a hard working catcher with an okay glove and some offensive upside. He has a little bit of infield ability and could get some time at first base to broaden out his value down the road. OSA likes him slightly more than my scout so if that becomes the reality we will be pleasantly surprised. Even with our projection, he will be an average hitting catcher who warrants PEBA at bats.

Honorable Mentions: SP Oliver Martinez (A), SP George Farleigh (A), C Connor Clavell (SS-A), C Carlos Miranda (A)

Conclusion:
The club has one potential ace in the farm and quite a few middle of the rotation arms that are nearing the major league level. With the new signing of Massacre Jimenez and the long-term extension of Declan Littleworth, the Bears are set up nicely for the long-term. In the near term, another arm could help as there still seems to be a gap in the rotation and Yoichibei Sakai and Angel Lujan are set to depart in free agency after the season. Neither Sakai or Lujan are viewed as key players and we wouldn't mind seeing them combine for less starts in 2026. While the catcher position is pretty thin on prospects, we have Steve McDonald under club control for quite a while so we have some time to work on this organizational weakness.

Next Up:
The Outfielders
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#38 Post by Ghosts »

The Bears have signed reliever Glenn Martin to a 2-year deal with $3.6M per year. The club also retains a team option for the 3rd year at the same salary and a $0.9M buyout. Martin had a tumultuous 2025 season that saw him sign a new deal with Okinawa, get released, sign another deal with West Virginia, get claimed by Palm Springs, and finally file for free agency again. The end of his season was actually very good with Palm Springs. In 21 innings with the Codgers, he had a 16-3 K/BB ratio, a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He was downright bad in Okinawa and then fell victim to a .517 BABIP in West Virginia, so we're hoping the Codgers version of Martin is what we're getting. He is an exceptionally hard worker who is well respected in the clubhouse. He will compete for the closer role for the Bears this season.
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#39 Post by Ghosts »

One of the biggest strengths of the Bears has been a strong ML outfield which are strongly supplemented by a stellar crop of outfield prospects. The profile seems to be outfielders with great range and immense potential for power hitting.

OF Scott Carpenter - Drafted 30th in Rd 1 (2022)
Carpenter will make the jump to AA this year after a solid A season that saw him improve his OPS from .599 to .773 which was a real nice jump. He hovered around .700 for most of the year before .900+ OPS in both August & September that proved he was ready for the next level. He finally started to display some of his immense power potential, hitting 8 HR's in the last 2 months of the season to bring his season total to 13. He only had 3 homers total in his first 3 minor league seasons so it was nice to see him start to grow into his power. His best tool of all is his defense, and he posted a +14.2 ZR in Centerfield which was a huge improvement from last season's +1.4 ZR. He stole 26 bags last year and 28 more this season. His lone weakness is he strikes out at high rates. He saw a minor improvement this year cutting last years number of 125 down to 115.

OF Antonio Figueroa - Drafted 65th Overall (Rd 2) in 2022
He was picked in the same draft as Carpenter, which is looking like a really good draft for the Bears at the top half. For some reason, prior ownership had him skip A-ball which lead to a lackluster 2024 season. This was a nice rebound for Figueroa at AA, as he improved his OPS from .686 to .832, and mashed 30 home runs. He doesn't draw many walks (42) and strikes out a lot (159), but his .513 slugging percentage made that a little bit easier to deal with. He has always been a stellar right fielder with one of the best arms in the game, but management is attempting to teach him centerfield. This season was the first time he played it and pitchers were not happy with his -27.7 ZR, though he did see some improvement later in the year. He will make the jump to AAA this year and be given the reigns of centerfield in hopes that he will continue his development there.

OF Antonio Garcia - Discovered in Cuba 2019
He is another outfielder with an absolute ton of power potential. At only 22 years old, he has developed an excellent plus eye at the plate and drew 62 walks in 95 games this year. In what seems to be a trend from outfielders in our farm, he is really struggling with strikeouts which led to a .199 batting average this season in AA. All of the walks led to a respectable .351 on base percentage to go along with 9 homers. The numbers are less than spectacular but are a huge jump over his 2024 half season split of .158/.255/.256 in AA. Another knock on Antonio is he doesn't have a ton of range in the outfield, so he's likely to settle in as a below average corner outfielder defensively despite a cannon for an arm, or as a DH if he's able to reach his full hitting potential. He is a switch hitter so that's a nice attribute to have. As a very hard worker, we're hoping that he can trim down on the strikeouts and bulk up on power. He'll be 22 for all of 2026 so there's plenty of time for him to develop and we expect he will spend all of the season in AA.

OF German Jaquez - Drafted 21st in Rd 1 of 2024
An absolute superstar with an OPS over 1.000 in his last 3 seasons in college, Jaquez has progressed through the low levels quickly and will debut in AA this season. He doesn't excel in any areas but has been solid all around providing good defense (+9.2 ZR), some pop (13 HRs) and good plate discipline. He'll be the third legitimate prospect in a AA outfield that will also showcase Carpenter and Garcia. He is a right handed bat which is one of our few at an outfield position, so he's likely got the floor of a platoon outfielder against LHP if things don't completely pan out as expected for him. Since he's not as much of a pure athlete as some of our other outfielders, our scout isn't as impressed by him but as long as he continues to put up numbers we're going to believe that the numbers and the OSA are closer to right on him than our tool obsessed scouting team.

OF Miguel Sanchez - Drafted 63rd Overall in 2022
He is teetering between AAA player and ML player, but had a very down 2025 season. He's also on the brink of losing his prospect status if things don't turn around this year. The biggest issue is his 135 K's in just 415 at bats, which was not an improvement on the 142 in 459 at bats in 2024. Despite the soft statistical output lately, he is solid in centerfield and has the ability to steal some bases. He will soon be pushed by the other outfield prospects that are rapidly progressing through the Bears minor league system. With that in mind, the Bears have recently put Sanchez on the block for a team that can provide him more opportunities than we can right now.

Conclusion: With Gilbert Murray and Jorge Lopez departing via a trade, the PEBA outfield is still pretty deep. All-stars Jesus Lopez and King Bailey have the potential to man centerfield with plus defense, but Bailey will likely play there with Lopez in right. The Bears will use a Benton Hawkins and Mark St John platoon in left field that is expect to produce an .800+ OPS. St John will also get some at bats versus righties as we're nearing a decision point on the former first rounder. Designated hitter Stephen Hooper can play the outfield in a pinch if needed, and Miguel Sanchez is the favorite for the 5th and final true outfield spot. There is speculation that the Bears could make a run at another outfielder in free agency, especially if they can find one to complete a DH platoon with Hooper.

Remaining to be Reviewed: The Infielders and the Bullpen
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#40 Post by Ghosts »

The Pre-2026 Free Agency Period in Review:
This is a little bit late but better late than never. It's time to take a look back at the Bears offseason signings as well as their fit with the team through the first month of the season. The Bears had a lot of money to spend, told their plans they would be big players in free agency, and did not disappoint. The deals were structured to give us some core top of the rotation pitchers for a while and then plug a lot of needs with short term fixes. We weren't really sure how much of our 2025 success was an aberration and how much was the team truly being a playoff contender. This approach allows us to improve a little bit to make a play at another postseason run but not completely mortgage the future on free agents. Only 3 players signed have guaranteed salaries in 2027 and only Maes/Jimenez have guaranteed salaries in 2028 or later. So, if this was a huge swing and miss, as some of the deals are looking, we can easily do a re-boot next offseason and try again.

SP Neil Maes - $22.9M AAV / 4 yr
This was a much criticized deal across the PEBA-verse. We really wanted Maes as he was a former Bear who induces a lot of ground balls and is a clear fit in our defense oriented team. The big risk here is that he did have some shoulder inflammation that caused him to miss a big chunk of the 2025 season. We will keep him on pitch counts and skip some starts here and there. Through 4 starts, he has a 1.98 ERA and has been everything we wanted him to be. We're counting on him being our ace for a few more years. The 4th year of the deal is a team option so we'll be able to get out of about $18M if we decline the option.

SP Arturo 'Massacre' Jimenez - $19M AAV / 8 yr
He signed a lot earlier than I was expecting. We simply offered him his exact demand and he was happy to come to Bakersfield after forcing a trade out of Aurora last season over his contract. The first 6 years of the deal we're locked into before Massacre has an opt out clause in his deal. It is dangerous to offer such a long term deal to a pitcher but Massacre is only 28 with a fairly clean injury history so we calculated the risk as being in our favor. He should be a good #2 option to Maes. With all of the young arms nearly ready in AAA, the rotation long-term looks like Maes/Massacre and a few high upside minimum salary options. Starting pitching should be a Bears strength for the forseeable future. 17-1 K to BB ratio so far.

SP Tsuginori Takeda - $2M AAV / 2 yr
He is the definition of an average pitcher. He's got pretty good control so we're hoping our good defense and big park can help him to more success than he's previously had. This was a pretty low risk signing as year 2 of the deal will only vest if he tops 150 innings, meaning he will need to be in the rotation all season. If he pitches well and stays healthy, he'll vest. If he doesn't do well, he'll likely find his way to the bullpen and lose starts to prospects in AAA. He is seen as a stop gap to the future. He has a 4.91 ERA through 4 starts but his 4.13 FIP shows he has had a little bad luck. If he continues down this path, he'll probably be in the pen by midseason.

SP Seon-chin Pak - $3.8M / 1 yr
Pak is a solid but underappreciated lefty knuckleballer. Scouts don't love him but he has a history of eating quality innings up. In 33 starts in 2025, he had a 3.13 ERA for the Bears and started Game 1 & 5 of our playoff series last year. We didn't expect to get him back but he was a compensation free agent that received no interest so we brought him in during spring training. Through 4 starts, he has a 1.16 ERA so he has significantly exceeded expectations so far, but he will be making a short trip to the DL and miss a couple starts.

RP Jose Paz - $7.5M AAV / 2 yr
He was supposed to be our closer to replace Joshua Hall but it was not to be. He tore his rotator cuff and is somehow fast tracking to an August return. He needs to finish 20 games to vest for next years deal, which is not realistic at this point, but the Bears are hoping we can get him into the groove and closing games in the postseason.

RP Brad Kemp - $2.8M / 1 yr
The former Lions closer was more of a luxury signing at the time, but is now in the set up role with Paz hitting the DL. He has been excellent so far, pitching 10 shutout innings to start the campaign. He has been a key cog in what has been the best pen in the SL so far, putting up a 1.54 ERA as a whole.

RP Glenn Martin- $3.6M AAV / 3 yr
We probably overpaid a little for Martin's calming leadership and work ethic influence on the team. However, he has been pretty good so far aside from one rough outing in Shin Seki that has him showing a 6.00 ERA. His FIP is 2.20, so I'm pretty comfortable that his numbers will trend down towards the 3's. The 3rd year of the deal is a team option so we can clawback $2.7M if Martin doesn't meet expectations.

C Rusty Butler - $4M / 1 yr
His overall stats look bad with a .505 OPS. However, we signed him purely to DH against LHP and be our backup catcher. Against lefties, his slash is .211/.286/.579 which gives a really good .865 OPS. He's a big ZERO across the board against righties though, which has primarily done in late innings of starts or when giving our catcher a rest. If he can do anything against righties this might not turn out looking so bad, though it was definitely a late overpay in free agency. No one else was meeting our needs based on our roster composition, so we overbid to make sure we got our man.

1B Lonnie Cole - $7.8M AAV / 3 yr
The former Bear is going back to Cali, in the words of Notorious BIG. First base was a major issue for the Bears last year. We got a sub .700 OPS from this slugging position. Year 2 of the deal is a vesting option with 450 ABs and year 3 is a team option. This is the big X-Factor for the Bears, as hitting is a big weakness and this is the move most likely to provide improvement from last year. Through 20 games, his .717 OPS is in the low range of our expectations for him. We're thinking he should level out around .750 by season-end which isn't great but is a significant improvement from our 2025 output. The .517 OPS versus RHP is really hurting right now, but he's mashing lefties. Luckily, we have a lot of guys with the opposite of that split.

3B Rudy Brown - $1.3M / 1 yr
He will be our backup at all infield positions and provide some decent pop off the bench. His biggest moment was a go ahead homer in the 12th inning of a 3-2 win over Reno on 4/19. Had a monster year in AA last season for us but based on the composition of our roster, he never got the call to the PEBA. He will get his chance this season.

OF Cedric Hunt - $2.7M / 1 yr
I trusted my scout here and not the numbers, and so far it is not working out for me. He was signed as an insurance outfielder but with another injury he was thrust into a starting role against LHP in the OF. His defense has been sub-par with a .400-ish OPS. I'll let this one play out a little bit more, but he may on the way to playing himself out of town.
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#41 Post by Ghosts »

We are proud to announce that three players will make their PEBA debuts for the Bears this week. Unfortunately all of them are replacing players that will go on the disabled list, but it will be a good opportunity to get a good look at some of our prospects for the future.

SS Kenny Morrison, the #22 prospect in the PEBA, will get the call up to get some PEBA reps with Javier Torres dealing with a nagging day to day injury. Morrison is phenomenal with the glove but has had limited success at the plate in the upper minors. None of our other upper minors options at shortstop were that great so we decided to go all in on his defense, which is some of the best any infielder can offer. We're hoping he can make enough plays to offset what will likely be about a .500 OPS at the PEBA level. Morrison was a 3rd round pick in 2021.

SP Erik Watson, the #91 prospect in the PEBA, will get a few spot starts with Seon-chin Pak and Yoichibei Sakai hitting the disabled list. After working on his control during Winter Ball, Watson is off to an exceptional start to the season. There were quite a few options to choose from in AAA, but decided to give Watson a few starts and will likely turn to Fred Womack or Lance Harris next time. Watson was a 6th round pick in 2021 who has really done better than expected so far in his career.

The second pitching callup, who will head to the Bears bullpen is Hideaki Hara, who was acquired in an offseason trade with Crystal Lake. In his 3rd season at the AAA level, Hara is probably overdue for a look at the highest level. He has been solid as the closer and captain of the AAA Grizzlies squad.
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Re: Daaaaa Bears Blog

#42 Post by Ghosts »

I need to re-think my strategy of giving guys a PEBA taste.... Hara/Watson combined for 5.1 IP and 11 runs allowed, while Morrison went 1 for 19 with 11 K's.
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