by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger
September 1, 2031: Aurora, Colorado - A month ago, after the dust had settled on the trade deadline - and after a the dust settled on a dismal 9-17 July that saw the Borealis lose 5 of 7 to Fargo, 4 of 5 to Toyama, 5 of 8 to Crystal Lake - and manage a 6-game split with Kalamazoo, Aurora found themselves 8-games back of Bakersfield and in 3rd, and 7.5 GB of second place Reno. August was kinder, at 17-11 - best in the Desert Hills, and tied for the second fewest losses in the SL - but Aurora did nothing but tread water - gaining a half game on the 16-11 Bears, while matching the Rising Sun leading Akira, picking up a game and a half on the 'never going to catch them' Evil Evas and losing ground to the red-hot 'Gnats, whose SL best 19-9 was only topped by Kentucky, San Juan and West Virginia. The lone positive bit of news, standings-wise, was the struggling Zephyrs, which allowed Aurora to pick up 4-games in the standings, and sit just 3.5 behind Reno as roster expansion arrives.
If it weren't for Aurora's inability to beat Madison - losing 5 of 6 mid-August, things would be different. During that same stretch, the Bears had split 6 with Fargo, and Reno was losers of 5 of 6 to Toyama and Shin Seiki. As is so often the case, it's all about timing - and timing has the Borealis, after a 17-11 month, 7.5 games out of the division lead and just 3.5 behind the surging 'Gnats and scuffling Zephyrs (whom Aurora finish a 4-game series tonight at Northern Lights). - four games better than they were a month ago - a pace that could see the Borealis once again sneak into the wild card on the last day.
August began with a surprising 6-0 run, sweeping The Evil Evas and the Codgers, then finishing the month winning 7 of 10 divisional games, taking series from Bakersfield, Yuma and Reno (tonights game pending). The series with Shin Seiki was particularly interesting as uncharacteristically, Aurora took early leads in each game - so often it's the Evas that jump ahead and make you play catch-up. Aurora even held their own in the homer department, finishing a -1 in that department. In game 1, 'Tugboat' showed a glimmer of his old self, allowing just a pair of runs on 7-hits in his 6 IP, and Jose Torres homered twice, driving in three for Aurora's 4-2 win. Newly anointed closer Mark Powers picked up his first save in his new position. Julio Diaz showed his familiarity against the Evas, after his time in Neo-Tokyo, throwing a 5-hittier in 8 IP, and Howard Joyce - who is having a very nice season as a part-time starter, had a bases clearing, 2-out double in the second to provide all the Borealis would need on this day in Aurora's 6-2 win. Richard Neely also looked good, in game 3, though John Gray would continue to strike no fear in the heart of a power hitter, and endanger the result. But Ricardo Zamora's 12th homer and Power's 4th save on the year would seal the sweep - something to ponder as a likely WC opponent would be The Evil Evas.
If we look at the crucial stretch of the month - and possibly the season, the six games with Madison were... well... maddening. Aside from Bartolo Esquivel's 5-0 win in the opener of that home-and-home series, the pitching was rough. Neely had nothing, as he allowed 8 R in just 4 IP of his one start. Diaz, who would get the ball twice, allowed 9 runs in 10.2 IP. At least 'Tugboat' kept his two starts close - Powers blowing the save with an 8th inning run allowed in an 11-inning loss (that saw the potential game-winning rally fizzle instantly when Loetzsch grounded into a double play with the tying run at third). Jason Baker was too good in Smith's second start, and a Borealis team that would score just 9-runs over the last 5-games with the Malts, didn't have the offensive mojo to overcome the deficit 'Tugboat' incurred.
The most frustrating point of the month - and another crucial moment, came in game 3 with Bakersfield. Aurora had taken the first two games at the Big Acorn - Man Sim picking up his 12th win, a 2-hit performance in a 4-0 win and a relentless offensive display in game 2 supported a satisfactory effort by Esquivel for an 8-4 win - in which Domingo Gutierrez was 3-5, had a pair of doubles and 5 RBI (upping his average to .314). Nick Heath was 4-5 in the game, with 3 R. With a chance for a sweep, Aurora faced Jeff Mendoza, and they jumped on the young starter right out the gate, with a pair of runs, spotting 'Tugboat' a 2-0 lead - and despite outings of late that included the aforementioned Evas' start - he allowed just a run to the 'Gnats and 2 to Fargo, he was lost against the Bears - who jumped him for 7-runs in just and inning-plus. Aurora would manage to get those runs back - but Ross and Shimizu would allow the game to get away. That game would be crucial, as a 2-game swing - from 6 GB to 8 GB crushed the hope and momentum that the previous nights two wins provided.
And thus we arrive to September 1, and Aurora sits 7.5 out of first, but a far more doable 3.5 out in the wild card. September's schedule is a weird one - fraught with pitfalls, based on the season's play - four more with Reno - and a chance to catch Reno on their own efforts, should Aurora manage a sweep, but 3-1 would be excellent - and even a split wouldn't be disastrous. There's the last three for the year, at Yuma, and as last week showed, there are no guarantees when Aurora faces the Yumans. Nestled between those is three with Bakersfield at Northern Lights - and that will be critical - Aurora really must win the series - and preferably a sweep, if they have any slight, outside hope of capturing the division crown. Henry Cluett will pitch the opener - recalled from AAA and replacing 'Tugboat' for that one. Esquivel and Diaz will pitch games 2 & 3, while the Bears have Carter, Watson and Harris lined up to go in the series. Carter faced Aurora once - back in late-May, and allowed 3-runs in an 8-inning no decision. Watson is 1-2 against Aurora and has allowed 10-runs in those three starts. Harris was extremely tough against Aurora in two May starts, allowing just a run in each, but was ineffective in his start last week.
Once the Borealis finish with their Desert Hills schedule, they face Okinawa twice (7-games), Kalamazoo twice (including the season ending series), Duluth for three, Fargo for three (the penultima series) and they are at Crystal Lake for a pair. Aurora is 3-3 against the Shisa, and in a weird way - being swept at home - two shut-outs and a 16-inning heartbreak, then going to Japan and resoundingly sweeping Okinawa at their place. The Shisa have been a tough out for Aurora the past few seasons, and despite the sweep earlier, trips to Japan have not been very friendly for Aurora. Kalamazoo has also provided to be a difficult out, as the teams traded 2-1 series wins at each others park, but the one-time Great Lakes leader have struggled of late - fallen to 4 GB of Fargo for the division lead, and are the team most immediately in front of Aurora in the WC - with a 3-game edge. Aurora is 7-2 against Duluth on the season, but the potential road block is the 5-games with Crystal Lake and Fargo, whom Aurora is a combined 7-12 against. Aurora would minimally need a 3-2 over that stretch. Pitfalls, boogie traps - and yet, not unthinkable.
Meanwhile, Bakersfield follows the Aurora series with Crystal Lake and Kzoo, before finishing with 7 against Yuma, three with Reno, 7 with Duluth and three with Madison - who have not been as tough on the Bears as they have on the Borealis. The lone team the Bears are under .500 with is the Badgers - so a rough first 10-days of September for Bakersfield (Aurora, CL and Kzoo) is the Borealis' best chance in the division race - and if serious hay hasn't been made, then it's all about the wild card.
As we look ahead at that wild card race, Shin Seiki or Neo-Tokyo have all but clinched that spot - The Evil Evas holding a 14-game bulge on the 2nd WC spot. That leaves it to the Zephyrs, 'Gnats, Badgers and Borealis - with Okinawa 6 GB (and 2.5 behind Aurora). While Crystal Lake and Fargo continue to battle one another for the division lead, the two have 7-games left with each other (and the combined 7 with Aurora). Aside from three with the Bears, Crystal Lake still have Okinawa and Kalamazoo on their schedule - three at each. 8 of the 'Gnats final 11 are with Madison, whom Crystal Lake are 4-1 against - weird scheduling, but they are not the only team with 8 left with Madison - as the Badgers have a pair of four-game home and homes and are also 4-1 against Kzoo. The more distantly placed Shisa have a rough road. Beginning with the first Aurora series they will play 17-straight days against Aurora, Crystal Lake, Shin Seiki and Neo-Tokyo, and then finish the season with a home series with the Akira. Needless to say, if Okinawa makes the playoffs, they will have earned it and they will be the team heading into the post-season with the most momentum.
Aurora's offense mostly seemed to get it's mojo back in August, mostly thanks to the addition of Bill Jones, who led the team with a .378 average and a .510 SLG - second only to Nick Heath, who hit .308 with 7 HR and 16 RBI - which were second best to Jose Torres' 19 RBI - thanks to his team second-best 6 HR - despite hitting only .243, second lowest amongst the starters; Ricardo Zamora hit only .233, but he had an OBP of .327, thanks to 13 BB - by far the most on the team. Domingo Gutierrez, whom I have come to think of as 'Dominguez' continued his fantastic season, hitting .356 in August, with a pair of homers and 14 RBI. Surprisingly doing well is John Dickson, who was having an awful year after singing a FA deal to boost the offense. But since returning from the DL, he's hitting .352 in 19-games, though with virtually zero power. 'Litterbug' has also improved his season stats with a .321 month that included 4-2B and a pair of triples - now if he cam just figure out this stolen base thing - he was successful just 6 of 11 times.
What it will really come down to is the starting pitching. Neely, Diaz and 'Tugboat' were collectively not good, while Esquivel and Sim looked much stronger. For now, Smith has been benched and banished to the 'pen - replaced by Cluett - whose first start back was a complete game, 3-hitter against Yuma. In the bullpen, Cleve Douglas has posted a 0.63 ERA in 14.1 IP since coming over from Madison at the deadline, and He Ling, used sparingly on the month, did not allow a run in 6.2 IP. Aurora will miss Jesus Cantu, the other deadline acquisition, who is now on the DL. He had allowed just a run over 9 IP for Aurora. Powers has shown some vulnerability at the closer spot - 5 saves in 9 appearances, but 5-runs allowed in 10.1 IP (Bob Burns, FYI, has a 3.27 ERA and 3 saves for New Orleans, with 4 R in 11 IP, including 2 HR).
This shall be an interesting stretch drive - last season, the Borealis were hanging on for dear life - slowly watching a division lead drip away, and barely claiming the second WC spot on the last days of the season. This year they will need to earn the spot on their own - no one will be helping the Borealis and handing them a spot, as happened last year as others beat the then surging Zephyrs and Dinosaurs. To do so, the offense will have to continue its power surge - August was the best slugging month of the year (though the 21 HR were less than May's 28), and the Starters are going to need to be better - and that falls squarely on the shoulders of Diaz and Neely. For Julio Diaz, this was why he was signed to the FA deal in the offseason - to be outstanding down the stretch. For Richard Neely, it's time to decide which pitcher he is: the one that has looked solid most of the year - at times, the best on the club, or the inconsistent starter that you know is due to give up the 3-run homer that kills any lead he may have been staked. With each having about 6-starts apiece, Aurora, realistically, needs to win a minimum of 8. That means they need to be on top of their game.
Down on the Farm
AAA Thornton continued with their historically bad stretch - for the third time in four seasons they posted a win % less than .400. Gatineau, who led their division much of the season, fell to a wild card spot, and will take on Seoul (SS) in that series. SLRC has a week left in their season and despite having the third best record in the BajaCali, the two teams with a better record are in their own division - Rosarito (WV) and Mexicali (FLA). The Rapidos Blancos need just one win in their remains 7-games to clinch the second WC and face Mexicali in the WC round. It was through the WC round that SLRC nearly made it to the finals, losing a rough game 7 to Escondido (REN) in the BCL final. Mokuleia is having their on historically bad season in the Surf and Snow, and down in the Caribbean, Montserrat is repeating last years inaugural disaster.
