Wheeling-Dealing Borealis, to What End?
by Ray D. Enzé,
NLN baseball blogger
July 10, 2028:
Fargo, North Dakota - The 2028 season is just past the mid-way point, and the Borealis sit at what feels a pedestrian 51-36. Sure, plenty of teams would trade places with Aurora - a game out of the division lead; a division Bakersfield had held since May 23, that Aurora had come back from the depths of 10-games back to take the lead on June 26, up it to 4-games, only to fall back behind the Bears in the days leading into the All-Star Game. In a race that looks to go to the wire, Aurora will travel to YUM! next Monday for the first of four games in the Desert portion, with the Bears traveling to The Front Range and the Hills portion - a final four-games of the season between bitter rivals near August's end.
Will any of that really make a difference, as for the Borealis, as the team that has struggled against the Rising Sun division has 6 remaining series with their Japanese Rivals, while the Bears - who've done very well against those same clubs, have 8-series left - including 2 with Okinawa and 2 with Toyama. Aurora's saving grace is the schedule did deal them a little solace - their two series thus far with Shin Seiki, are all they have, while the Bears, 2-4 in two series with the Evil Evas, have 6 more games to play with the SL leaders.
And those games with the Evas have been nothing but frustrating for Aurora as four of those games have been decided by 2-runs and the other two games by a single run; two have gone deep into extras (14- and 15-innings). Take this past week, for example. In losing the first two games of the final series of the first half, 4-2 and 3-1, before winning the finale, also 3-1, Aurora hit a painful .184 - not that the Evas .200 in the series was any more impressive, but what it did illustrate is the difference location makes. Playing at Aurora's Northern Lights Park, the Evas probably hit their lowest HR output in a series the year - 1, Chris Webb's 9th inning insurance run in the 9th of game 1.
With Aurora firmly (if only by 4-games in either direction) entrenched in a wildcard spot, they - as always, have their eyes on those Evil Evas, and the questions of how to catch up to 'The Jones' continue, as has been the case between the two since the Evas joined the PEBA in the 2021 Merger.
Which brings us to the title of today's entry. Wheeling and Dealing. The Borealis have been a rather busy lot - especially the past few weeks - and yet again last night. What has been their motivation behind these moves, and where do they leave Aurora for the second half and beyond?
We are three weeks out from the Trade Deadline - let's dissect what Aurora has achieved with their deals thus far:
April 17:
Aurora dealt minor league 1B
Jimmy 'Dr. Evil' Peterson to Scotland for their 13th round pick. This deal looks to have no major strategic purpose, aside from clearing up roster space for the upcoming June draft. With the Scottish pick in the 13th round, Aurora selected light hitting, speedy SS
Rhett Wellings, who plays a pretty slick second and short. After 8 games and 28 AB, Wellings has done little.
Reaction:
Not much was really expected.
April 24th:
Perhaps still the biggest deal of the season (at least for Aurora), the Borealis dealt
Roberto Martinez to Toyama for (ostensibly) a pair of young minor league starting pitching prospects:
Henry Cluett and
Pedro Morales. The deal also exchanged a pair of outfielders -
Lawrence Justice for the younger
Howard Joyce. For Aurora, two things were apparent. 'Fudd' Martinez did not appear able or willing to hit for them. Whatever it was - altitude, the park, the color blue, and the team expected much more from their former #1 pick. Now, after a period of adjustment, he's thriving with the Wind-E's. At first, Aurora seemed unconcerned, as rookie Ricardo Zamora was scorching out of the gate, but has since cooled to a glacial pace. The key, though was the second apparent item: the need to get more serious depth in the minor league starting pitching corps. With an eye towards the future, Aurora gave up a bit of the promise of the present - or a lack of. Morales has had 4 starts at Mokule'ia, and despite giving up hits (and 3 HR), he has struck out 27 (with 8 BB) in 24 IP and is posting a 3.38 ERA. Cluett, meanwhile, has made 14 starts for SLRC, posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 70 K in 106 IP. It's a possibility that he may see an August promotion, but it seems Aurora is willing to let him play out the year at A Ball. Justice for Joyce was just a roster procedural move for Aurora - Justice was older and out of options - otherwise, the players seem to be an even swap. Joyce struggled early with the trade - finding himself back at AAA, but of late he's settled in and has his average up to .262.
Reaction:
All in all, 'Fudd' could be an MVP for Toyama, but if Cluett and Morales continue to develop and contribute on The Front Range, Aurora would likely be happy with the acquired depth.
June 12:
The trading got fast and furious when Aurora began looking for a home for swing-man
Billy Taylor and came across the new regime in Arlington looking to clean house and begin with a cleaner slate. That brought west reliever
Mike Monroe. Taylor struggled off and on for Aurora, never settling into either a starters or reliable relievers role - and had bounced around enough that he was out of options (now there's a trend beginning). Aside from needing flexibility within their roster, the major league level needed a stronger 'pen, and Monroe was acquired with the hope of just that. The 31-year old lefty has a pair of options left - but don't expect those to be used anytime soon. Despite having to spend a turn on the DL (his back seized up and the team took the road of caution), his 9 IP since joining the team have been solid: 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K. Meanwhile, Taylor finds himself back at AAA - again, and pitching like he's not all that excited about it.
Reaction:
Aurora needed more depth in the 'pen to compete at the level they expect. Monroe threw 5 innings this past week against Shin Seiki, and gave up 3 hits and Webb's solo homer (in his third inning of that appearance), with no walks and 3 K. 9 innings may not be a sample size worth discussing, but this looks like a positive move for the present.
June 12:
Aurora weren't just focused on Arlington; or the present, on this day - as they went knocking on the Scottish door, and haggis wasn't what they were in hopes of finding. Looking for a home for the 'similar to Billy Taylor' situation
Tomas Moya, Aurora found another team with new management that had turned fortune on it's ear, yet found the injury bug looking to strike fortune square in the nose. The Borealis would sent two Moya's to Scotland - AAA reliever
Orlando Moya joining Tomas, and in exchange the Borealis would receive another young arm -
Tam Lochhead -used as a reliever, but with starters potential, and Scotland's 2nd round pick. Tomas Moya, like Taylor before him, had bounced up and down the Interstate and in and out of the bullpen, neither showing the potential dominance the team had hoped for in either location. All the while consuming his options - and when Monroe was acquired, the roster spot that the Taylor deal freed up, was filled. So off went Tomas and Orlando - who pitched well for Thornton, but never got more than a 'maybe' from the Aurora management team. Lochhead show's a lot of potential, but is pretty green. Drafted 14th overall by Hartford in 2027, this was the second time he was traded this season. It would seem likely he'll stay with Aurora (for now), and at Mokule'ia - despite the success he had at A Ball Cheyenne last year. At just 19, like Pedro Morales, not need to rush this one.
Reaction:
A move for the future. Moya & Moya may sound like a law firm, but in time, they should help the Claymores more than they would have the Borealis. A young arm, full of potential, and a 2nd round pick sound like a positive move with an eye on the future.
June 26:
Aurora had really, really hoped Rob Imhoff would shed his injury bug and stay healthy, and pitch to the potential they see in him. The pitching part, 2.91 in 5 starts, 16 K, 4 BB in 21.2 IP - only 5 HRs kind of ruining the effect. But... pitching well - Check. Injury bug - not so fast Willis. When a biceps strain took him down again, and landed him on the DL, Aurora came to the realization that they needed a back-up plan. Enter Amsterdam and their own 'cleaning house' new GM. A 4th round pick - and eating the remainder of a contract, was all it took to get long-time, coveted, Alleghanie
Arturo Velasquez into the fold. Clearly a move for the present - and with a cheap contract (for now), the possibility that he stays on for 2029 is a distinct one. Arturo has been used both in the 'pen and as a starter for Amsterdam this year, and had posted a 2.87 ERA in those roles, with 50 K and 19 BB in 60 IP. For Aurora he made a relief appearance against Neo-Tokyo (3-hitless innings, with 3 K) and then he got the starting nod against the Evil Evas, and gave up a run on 5-hits over 6-innings for the win.
Reaction:
An inexpensive move for the present that is more likely to pay more benefits than it's cost.
June 26:
Aurora's back and forth activity in this whirlwind of trading continued, as for the second time they struck multiple trades on a single day. This time they cut loose a pair of relievers -
Pedro Vega (who had spent time at both ends of the I-70/I-25 corridor) and
Robert Thomas in a deal with Arlington for the younger RP
Theo Holder. Vega, who never quite gave Aurora what they had hoped when they acquired him from Kentucky, just played himself out of the organization depth chart - and the moves made by the team over the past couple of years didn't help. Thomas, like so many Aurora minor leaguers, just reached that AAA dead-end, despite winning the Organizations Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Holder was an International Free Agent find by the Bureaucrats in 2024, and over the past two seasons had shown the Arlington folks some promise. His biggest challenge will be harnessing his control - otherwise his stuff is dynamite.
Reaction:
Like all trades that are for the future, it's a tough call on this one, but Holder has promise and adds depth to the organizations pitching corps.
June 26:
This time around Aurora turned to a long established GM to deal with - and New Orlean's GM Reg LeBlanc was listening. The Trendies, who started hot, were found floundering, yet still with hopes for a wildcard spot. They took infielder
Freddy Brooks, another guy stuck in the minors, but whose defensive skills alone make him worth a look. In exchange, Aurora picked up New Orleans' 2nd round pick.
Reaction:
A straight forward deal with an eye looking ahead. Brooks had served his time with Aurora, and it was time for him to get a shot for significant playing time.
July 10:
Most recently, the Borealis turned to an odd trading companion - the Crystal Lake Sandgnats. The 'Gnats GM, RJ Ermola, has been combating financial troubles all season as a result of the Miguel Cantu contract snafu, and has tried to make shedding salary and competing for the Rodriguez Cup co-existent activities. Despite not being far off, the Organization had made the call to move into a slight reboot - and with that, a need for Aurora came about. 2B
Derrick Dwyer became available, and Aurora saw that as maybe the best fit option to beef up the offense on the infield. Aurora sent their 2nd and 3rd round picks to the 'Gnats, with West Virginia's 3rd round pick (acquired in an earlier deal involving Manny Pacheco and 'Moondog') coming west. The ever impatient Borealis were not satisfied with the .262 they got from Pablo Medrano or the .250 from Teddy Loetzsch or the .246 from Gabe McIntyre or the really hideous .213 from Carlos Saenz (who quickly found his way onto the DFA - after rumors suggest Crystal Lake balked in the end at having Saenz included in the deal). The combined OPS averaging .623 was not cutting it for a team with it's sights on high places - and that's not even talking defense. Medrano's 8 errors at second (compared to Dwyer's 2) have been costly, as a team wth a once proud defense has sunk to 7th in the League.
Reaction:
This deal isn't the end-all of Aurora's offensive struggles, but a bump in the offense and improved defense on the infield could go a long way. At the basic cost of a second round pick - and still having two picks in that round (the switch of 3rd round picks is really looking to be just a few places and is mostly a wash), this is a deal for the present that seems more of a financial debate (Dwyer is owed $2.4M on his contract for the year) than a high risk acquisition.
So as we analyze Aurora's motivations, we see a thread that has been a common one for the past 5-seasons now since they won their last PEC. That is, this is a club that knows it's window is closing, and yet they keep looking to keep it open. But we have also noticed over the past couple of seasons - and this slew of trades accentuate it, that they recognize that their historical success has come from the mound - and with the futures of Provost and 'Tugboat' cloaked in uncertainty, the team is striving to improve the pitching depth in the minors - kind of the 'Win & Build' model that got the Borealis to the top though the mid-20-teens. To summarize the seven trades (discounting the Peterson for a 13th round pick) the Borealis have struck in the seasons's first half:
In:
Present: SP Arturo Velasquez, Mike Monroe RP, 2B Derrick Dwyer
Future: SP Henry Cluett (A), SP Pedro Morales (SA), RP Tam Lochhead (A), RP Theo Holder (AA), RF Howard Joyce
New Orleans 2nd round pick, Scotland's 2nd round pick, WV's 3rd Round Pick
Out:
LF Roberto 'Fudd' Martinez, LF Lawrence Justice, SP/RP Billy Taylor, SP/RP Tomás Moya, 3B Freddy Brooks, RP Orlando Moya, RP Pedro Vega, RP Robert Thomas
Aurora's 2nd round, 3rd round and 4th round picks
Aside from the picks, 'Fudd' is likely the one piece the team may regret. Despite his inability to get rolling at Aurora, his upside was high. The others all have their potential and are in dire need of continuity and a chance - something that was not going to happen at Aurora.
The draft looks better, as the exchange of picks actually ends up with the Borealis moving up - barring an utter and complete disaster in the second half. Add Cluett and Morales to the recent drafting of Miguel Torres, Armando Batista, and the young Roberto Rodriguez - fresh out of the International Complex and ready to make his professional debut tonight, and the Borealis look to have the makings of an extremely solid rotation. Now the Aurora brass need to do something they seldom have been able to do in their 'Win Now, at all cost' mentality - show patience.
Meanwhile, as for the present - the team has taken on more salary then they perhaps should have - and Monroe and Dwyer are arbitration eligible and Velasquez will be a free agent. These players seemingly can't hurt in this years hunt for the PEC - but will they make the difference? That's hard to say. Argue if you like, that Dwyer is redundant - but if he plays good D, he's a difference maker. Monroe certainly looks like he'll make the bullpen stronger - and with 'Onion' Castro looking like he's hit the wall, that'll be needed more so than thought. And Arturo? Well, with the medical team now stating that they are unsure about Imhoff's return from a biceps issue, and Carlos Rivera's sketchy injury history, if nothing else, Velasquez provides a proven veteran presence in the rotation, complementing 'Tugboat' and Turner.
A bigger question may be - are the Borealis through with this years trading, or is their more yet to come?
One eye on the present, one eye on the future. Has each eye focused and narrowed down on viable pieces? It's funny how time is - be it long or short, it's always time that tells.