Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#481 Post by Borealis »

Thanks Drew!! It will be interesting to see where life takes M. Provost...

And as an absolutely unrelated note - I should change my sig, seeing I've been dead for years... maybe something like 'resident ghost and former-...'
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#482 Post by Vic »

The ghost of PEBA future ...
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#483 Post by Borealis »

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Financially Strapped Borealis Lose Key Parts, Mo' Money
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger

November 28, 2028: Aurora, Colorado - The goodbyes to Mike Provost may still be lingering in the air, but he was not alone in what will be known as the 'Financial Exodus of 2028', as 5 more members of the 2028 team - and a couple of key cogs, left for free-agency as the cashless Borealis were left with hands-palm up and a shrug, as they were helpless to stop the flood. Then matters got worse as the arbitration hearings didn't make things any better.

First up was SP Carlos Rivera. Carlos, like 'Train Arollin'' was easy. He had a team option worth $15M and that was declined lickety-split as money needed elsewhere. Rivera was enigmatic, as at moments he was tremendous and at others, frustrating. He also had a penchant of getting hurt, and his torn biceps tendon early on - limiting him to 7 appearances (and 5 starts) sealed the deal for the soon-to-be 36-year old. Since his being acquired from Amsterdam a week into the 2025 season (for SP Eduardo Romano) - so basically four seasons, Rivera was just 23-15, with a 3.51 ERA. The most disturbing stat during his time with Aurora was the 58 HRA in 415 IP.

Also allowed to walk was 33-year old, one time West Virginia ace, Arturo Velasquez, who Aurora acquired near the trade deadline from Amsterdam for a 4th round pick in the coming draft. Picked up for depth as a swingman, Velasquez had 15 appearances - 9 starts, and was 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA. He started well once he arrived, only to have a bad patch in early September, that made his stats look worse, but he was solid down the stretch. He made one post-season appearance, in Aurora's 7-5, 14-inning win in Game 5 v. Fargo. He threw 3 innings and gave up just a pair of hits.

There members of the 2028 squad met the statistical threshold for Qualifying Offers - meaning they could be offered a $15.1M deal, and if they signed elsewhere, Aurora would get a Supplemental draft pick. None of the players - SP 'Terror' Diaz, INF Gabe McIntyre, and RP Ron Latour, warranted that kind of salary - and risk it being accepted - and thus, unfortunately, were let to walk - despite the team's desire. Diaz was a contraction pick draft for Aurora - their first of two choices (Domingo Guterrez being the other), and much like Velasquez in his brief time, Diaz never truly found his niche as he was the '5th-6th' man most of the time. This season, for example, he was 13-5, with a 3.26 ERA in 23 starts and 12 relief appearances. He was 48-26, 3.46 with Aurora, with 473 K and 202 BB.

Later came to Aurora as an International Free Agent out of the Mexican Winter League and pretty quickly became a mainstay in the bullpen. Though his BB/9 was always high, he never ceased to amaze at his ability to get out of a jam. His career numbers with Aurora, over 6+ seasons were 19-14, with 18 saves and a 2.76 ERA. His career BB/9 may have been 4.7, but he allowed 0.5 HR/9, so the walks didn't hurt so bad. He has a career 8.2 K/9. The 30-year old from Vancouver, BC will no doubt find a place in someone's 'pen.

Gabe McIntyre may be the hardest loss of all. The 11th overall selection in the 2018 draft (out of Oregon State) never reached the level of success you'd want from a player drafted so high - but his flexibility around the infield - particularly at short and first, kept him employed on The Front Range. He's spent 7+ seasons with the Borealis and hit .262 (his career best, .293 last season) with just 16 HRs and 230 RBI in 697 games (678 GS). Perhaps best known for putting the ball in-play, McIntyre struck out just 205 times in 2,542 AB. To put that in perspective, Nick Heath struck out 92 times - this year!

None of the above three are expected to garner a big deal on the free-agent market, but Aurora certainly will miss their contributions.

Then there is arbitration. Nine players were eligible for arbitration - three of who were acquired in trade peri-trade deadline. The arbiter awarded three large deals - and two of them were for two of the top two trade acquisitions they made: Derrick Dwyer and Bob Burns.

Dwyer, picked up from Crystal Lake in their early fire sale (for a 2nd and 3rd round pick), was in the last year of an early signed contract and made $4.8M last year. He was awarded $13.125M for 2029. The team was rumored to have offered something shy of $10M. Dwyer played 58 games for Aurora after the trade, and he hit .310, with an OBP of .402.

Bob Burns, who came from San Antonio in a last second deal, was awarded an $8.75M deal - which was not far from what the team had offered - so they say. After Burns came in trade (for 'Onion' Castro, Teruo Ine, Miguel Torres, Roberto Rodriguez and a #1 pick), he was everything they had hoped for and more - 3-0, 0.59 ERA, 46 K, 4 BB and only a single homer allowed in 30 IP. At 29, Burns is just coming into his own, and having pitched so well, he might just find himself battling the ever frustrating John Gray for the closer role.

Also receiving $8.75M from the arbiter was C 'Fido'Castro, the 10th overall selection in 2022 by the Borealis. In 100 games - splitting the catcher duties with Gutierrez (whose the team was awarded their $3.6M offer), Castro hit .296 with 15 HR. The one element that has confused Aurora has been his defense. Despite hi strong arm, he's nailed only 15% of runners trying to steal. Dominguez, who hit .278 with 5 HR in 80 games, threw out 20%. Aurora keeps intimating that both will find their way into the line-up, but when that will happen may be a question for spring training.

The rest of the deals were smaller, and a mix of team and player wins - none of which were of significance either way. RP Mike Monroe, was awarded $4.6M (he had been asking for $6M) after a 2.05 ERA in 44 IP, with 30 K and 5 BB. Dan Field threw 71 innings to the tune of a 1.51 ERA, but a slightly disturbing 2:1 K:BB ration marred that performance - though he allowed only 2 homers. Lando Lagerveld (2.68 in 50 IP, 35 K, 14 BB and 5 HRA) received $1M. SS Teddy Loetzsch, like Mcintyre, valued for his flexibility, started 88 games (mostly at short) and hit .231. He will be paid $4.2M for that effort (he had asked for $5.25). Lastly, Pablo Medrano, who hit .285 while mostly playing first, was awarded $1.155M.

That leaves the Borealis with a player payroll of $204M - and no wiggle room to bring in a free agent or two - barring their trading one of their big salaried players (hmmmmmmmmm... what could 'Tugboat' bring in a trade?). The team is projected to have another financially losing seasons - but far less than 2028, but unless they do better at the turnstiles and move deeper into the post-season, they may be in the same boat as they are now.

As we look ahead, Aurora has 6 contracts that may come up after the season. 'Tugboat' and 'Big Whiskey' have vesting options for 2030 - Smith needs 28 GS (as this year) and Britt 500 PA - which he has meet every season of his PEBA career - save his rookie year and 2024, where a concussion ended his season early. Both would be due to make $28M.

John Turner and Paul Carlisle can opt-out of their contracts - worth $18.5M and $18M, respectively. Luis Nieves and River Pope have team options, each worth $13M.

Then again, Burns and Castro will be up for arbitration - and with no money to beat the arbiter to the punch, they may very well get bigger deals.

The price of winning - and seeking another Rodriguez Cup, has finally caught up with Aurora.
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#484 Post by Vic »

Yikes! That’s a lot of change. If anyone can pick their way through it, though, you can, Mike.
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#485 Post by Borealis »

We shall see, Vic... I've a lot of coin out to some players who's number after the '3' in age is getting up there...
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#486 Post by Borealis »

Little Under Borealis Tree as Calendar Turns
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger

January 3, 2029: Aurora, Colorado - No free agents were hiding in the back of Aurora's Christmas tree - not even gifts of misfit toys looking to be returned on Boxing Day. The offseason has been mostly quiet as a mouse on The Front Range - the team has given it's fan base little to talk about – positively. Early ticket sales are down, and the only movement the team has made since the mixed bag of result during arbitration, and the free-agent fleeing of Mike Provost, are a minor league pitching coach (of note) and Aurora's historic Rule 5 selection.

Even the Winter Meetings were wastelands of silence for the Borealis.

For starters, the one announcement that the Borealis had for the gathering of GMs was that former reliever extraordinaire, Ryan ‘Stork’ Holbrook, had been hired as pitching coach for the San Luis Rio Colorado Rapidos Blancos of the NAFTA. It’s been no secret to the team’s followers that there has been a severe lack of pitching talent rising through the system, and the team is looking to rectify that by bringing in ‘known commodities’ to share their knowledge and experience with their young arms. With the likes of Pedro ‘Sukoshi Netsu’ Morales, Henry Cluett and Armando Batista (along with others) rising through the ranks, the Borealis need, more than ever, for their attempts at building pitching depth to bring success to The Front Range.

‘Stork’ has long been known as a fighter – challenging hitters, and carrying his emotions on his sleeve. Some may view his ways as temperamental, but others may simply see competitiveness and a desire for the team to perform it’s best. Despite his nature, he’s always been viewed as a solid teammate, and he is expected to command the respect that an A coach needs from his young charges. SLRC had a team ERA of 2.51 last year, which ranked 4th in the Baja-Cali, but the bullpen was a disappointing 8th, at a really not all that bad 3.13. Morales, who came to the Organization early in the 2028 campaign in the ‘Fudd’ deal with Toyama, was the staff leader with a 6-1 record and a 1.60 ERA. Having just turned 20 in September, it’s uncertain where he will be in 2029. Many would like to see him take another turn at Short A, others feel it’s time for him to move up to A ball. Jesus Booth and Dan Dunn, both drafted last season, and Brian Clark, drafted in 2027 out of high school, posted ERAs of 2.01, 2.08 and 2.21, but their youth may have them remain at Short A – but with the veteran of 808 appearances over 14 seasons, with a career 2.80 ERA – all at Aurora, now at SLRC, we may see all four of that group move up to the next level.

The other bit of news came after the Winter Meetings and out of the Rule 5 draft, where for the first time in memory, the Borealis actually made a selection. In the need of replacing Gabe McIntyre, now of Toyama, Aurora looked into the coffers of the West Virginia Alleghanies and selected infielder Roy Duke, who was a 6th round selection in the 2022 draft. Duke is an excellent infielder – specifically at 2B, where in 704 innings in 2028 he had 344 chances and while turning 65 DP made no errors. He also plays a very solid 3B, and if he sticks with the team, may provide Aurora with the defense at 3B they’ve been looking for to move Britt over to 1B – if only occassionally.

Duke has not played beyond AA – and that’s only been 29 AB in 2027. Last year it was back to A ball, where he hit .257 over 125 games – but he had a .326 OBP, with 7 HR and 20 steals in 22 attempts. But in 2027 he hit .309 at A ball, and .288 and .345 at Short A over the 2026 season. Aurora’s scout feel like Roy has nothing left to prove in the minors, so it’s expected he’ll get ample opportunity to prove he’s ready for the big time. Being a Rule 5 selection, he must spend the entire season at Aurora, or be returned to the Alleghanies.
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#487 Post by DrewV »

The first Holbrook mention I found was a 2010 (2009) Draft Review by Matt:
CL Ryan "Stork" Holbrook - southpaw who pounds the mitt at 99mph. Career numbers are all you need to look at. 6-1, 26 saves, 1.65 era, 0.86 whip, 65.1 ip, 2 hr, 6 bb, 79 k's. As long as he stays healthy, one of the top closers in next seasons draft, without a doubt.
What a career! Enjoyed diving into his history. A surreal experience, I'm sure, to arrive in san Luis Rio Colorado as a pitching coach, 14 years after arriving there from Mokule'ia himself.

Interesting pickup with Duke as well--good read!

Enjoyed the blog as always.
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#488 Post by Leones »

Always enjoyable to see an old alumn brought back ito the fold. Nice job!
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#489 Post by Ghosts »

Borealis wrote:Little Under Borealis Tree as Calendar Turns
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger

No free agents were hiding in the back of Aurora's Christmas tree - not even gifts of misfit toys looking to be returned on Boxing Day. The offseason has been mostly quiet as a mouse on The Front Range - the team has given it's fan base little to talk about – positively. Early ticket sales are down, and the only movement the team has made since the mixed bag of result during arbitration, and the free-agent fleeing of Mike Provost, are a minor league pitching coach (of note) and Aurora's historic Rule 5 selection.

Even the Winter Meetings were wastelands of silence for the Borealis.
Goooood. Gooooood.... :occasion-balloons: :twisted:

The Bears are still salty about giving up the division lead down the stretch!
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#490 Post by Vic »

Is it possible this is all misdirection by Mike and he actually has something up his sleeve? I’m not sure I believe that the storied Borealis are as bereft of hope as they’re letting on ...
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#491 Post by Borealis »

Claymores wrote:Is it possible this is all misdirection by Mike and he actually has something up his sleeve? I’m not sure I believe that the storied Borealis are as bereft of hope as they’re letting on ...
Make me a big enough offer and a certain water craft could set sail to your port...
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#492 Post by Borealis »

Winter Cold Describes Aurora Offseason
by Ray D. Enzé, NLN baseball blogger

February 24, 2029: Grand Junction, Colorado - Cold, bleak, dreary - those terms describe the Back Range where Aurora has begun preparations for the coming of Spring Training. Cold, bleak, dreary - that's the dead of winter in most of Colorado, but it also describes the state of the Borealis and the prospects for 2029. Cold, bleak, dreary.

While teams shuffle players, acquire new shiny toys, with fans rushing to gobble up tickets for the 2029 season, on the Front Range it has been a 'winter of discontent'. Season ticket sales are down 4.4%, ticket sale projections for the season suggest attendance will be down near 10%, the team projects to lose in the neighborhood of $24M, and fans still bemoan the loss of Michel Provost.

And most of all, the once proud franchise - championships and gobs of cash, suddenly find themselves on a severe downslide. Much of it starts with the Train that has gone Arollin'.

When Provost went down with injury, nearly a year ago, 1-inning into Spring 2028, Aurora was left with a $35M hole. Filing the hole - plus stretch drive additions, would only make matters worse. An additional $10M+ was brought in through trades as the club tried to maintain competitiveness and win another Rodriguez Cup. That goal, alas, fell short. A healthy Provost equaling a deeper playoff run may have offset the season loss - even with the salary the team took on.

Despite being free of Provost's $35M contract for 2029, and an estimated $26M decline in player salary for 2029, the Borealis continue to look at a red finish - in a large part due to the Revenue Sharing Tax - an $18M hit on top of the 2028 losses. Aside from playing out of their minds and selling far more tickets, caps and VR subscriptions, where can the Borealis cobble the money to make 2030 financially palatable?

Reducing budgets? How low can you realistically go? With the Borealis already in the lower tier of League spending on Development systems and Scouting, can they really make a difference here and not further cripple the team? Lower ticket prices and hope the counter-intuitiveness of reverse-psychology brings fans back to Northern Lights? Perhaps - though it's likely that will only work for a short while if the team isn't beating the uber-active Bears.

The obvious answer is sell your assets. With Randy Smith pulling in $28M, trading him and replacing him with, say, Jesus Solis, the team quickly moves closer to being 'back in black' - but unless the Borealis are ready to wave the white flag and give up and for the first time in franchise history, hit the rebuild button, that's a move that will cripple their competitiveness.

Unless they got something significant in return... say a Luppe van Dam, or Alejandro Lujan, does it really benefit the Borealis to jettison salary and fight Reno for 3rd place? There are a number of desirable pieces on this squad, and just a couple could make the fiscal impact the Borealis require. Who might go? Probably not 'Big Whiskey', but anyone under contract for 2030 would be a candidate - especially 'Tugboat', John Gray, or River Pope. Not likely to go? Derrick Dwyer and Tomas Flores - both who are without a contract for 2030 and would likely be Qualifying Offer eligible and potential compensation eligible free agents.

So with a week to go before the start of Spring Training, and Aurora's only move being the plucking of INF Roy Duke off West Virginia's hands during the Rule 5 draft, Aurora's future looks bleak. Bleak?? They have a rotation that most would drool over: 'Tugboat', JT, 'Chief', Esquivel and likely Imhoff. The bullpen is one of the most solid with Gray, Burns, Monroe, Field and Lagerveld. With pitching like that, one should be giving it the Mad Magazine 'What, Me Worry?" - and yet Front Office, GM and fans alike all fret.

Instead of the excitement of breakout years from Nick Heath and Jose Torres, and a full season from Dwyer, Front Office, GM and fans alike are studying financial statements and discuss cost cutting and corner chopping. Aurora is in the awkward position of having a nearly settled roster (Imhoff at SP? Who's the 11th arm on the staff? Will Alonso stick as a 3rd catcher and Castro move to DH) to start the Spring - and yet no one is expecting this roster to be the Opening Day roster.

Not if Balance Sheets and Cut Corners have any say.
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#493 Post by Vic »

Wow, Ray’s kind of a gloomy blogger, isn’t he? He’s not suggesting a fall to the second division, is he? The roster looks way too potent for that!
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#494 Post by Borealis »

Claymores wrote:Wow, Ray’s kind of a gloomy blogger, isn’t he? He’s not suggesting a fall to the second division, is he? The roster looks way too potent for that!
You're from Indiana - you know what those cold, winter nights are like...
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Re: Aurora Storialis - The Borealis Blog

#495 Post by DrewV »

Great article Mike! Money pickles always make for high drama. I have confidence that the mighty Boreais will see this "bleak" pickle through.
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